Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[GhostsOfGil]

Ruz, yes he isn't as athletic as Griffin is (I'm not sure anyone in the league is) but Bennett's still an athletic freak in his own right. Griffin measured in at a 35.5" vertical leap. We don't know what Bennett's is now, but canadianprospects.ca lists it at 34". This is probably from his high school days.

Do they have his no step vert? I think that is a better indication of explosiveness.

[Ruzious]

Ruz, yes he isn't as athletic as Griffin is (I'm not sure anyone in the league is) but Bennett's still an athletic freak in his own right. Griffin measured in at a 35.5" vertical leap. We don't know what Bennett's is now, but canadianprospects.ca lists it at 34". This is probably from his high school days.

I think when you watch them play against each other (and Griffin dunks several times on Bennett), you'll see there's a big difference in their physical ability. The advantage Bennett has is that he can shoot from outside - so he has more versatility.

[AFM]

Ruz, yes he isn't as athletic as Griffin is (I'm not sure anyone in the league is) but Bennett's still an athletic freak in his own right. Griffin measured in at a 35.5" vertical leap. We don't know what Bennett's is now, but canadianprospects.ca lists it at 34". This is probably from his high school days.

Do they have his no step vert? I think that is a better indication of explosiveness.

Nope. I don't even know how accurate this website is.
But I have no question about Bennett's explosiveness. He's definitely the most explosive athlete in the lottery. (I'm leaving out pure athletes like Tony Mitchell).

[nate33]

http://www.monumentalnetwork.com/videos/anthony-bennett-interview-6-13-13/index.jsp

Bennett says his standing reach measured at 8'9".

That doesn't help his case.

Agreed.

I was on the fence on whether to take him or Porter, leaning towards Porter. Now it's no longer a debate. I'd definitely take Porter over Bennett.

That said, if Porter and Noel are gone at #3, I'm not eliminating Bennett from consideration at #3. I haven't decided whether I like Bennett, Zeller or Oladipo more.

It's worth noting that Bennett's standing reach is still only one inch below that of Zeller, and his overall wingspan is better. My eyes say that Bennett is more explosive, too. Zeller put up slightly better numbers against better competition, though.

[The Consiglieri]

Post from the previous thread:

Seeing how Cleveland has drafted the last 3 years, it would not surprise me if Porter or Oladipo is the pick. Also remember, this is the same franchise that took Tristan Thompson over Jonas Valanciunas because Valanciunas was staying overseas and Cleveland was unwilling to wait a year for him. So Noel not being a lock at #1 doesn't surprise me sense he wouldn't be ready to even begin practicing with the team until December or so.

To add to that, Gilbert and his kid on lottery night made those "we won't be here next year" comments. Porter starts for them on Day One, and probably makes a guy like Thompson at least a little bit better. So I definitely think it's possible they take Porter #1. I'm also interested to see what trade down rumors surface over the next week or so.

I'm betting that Cleveland is doing everything possible to trade the pick. They're going to try to get maximal value out of it, which probably translates into getting additional assets. I'd guess a Bobcats or Suns trade is in the works for this. The question though is whether anyone really wants it for what Cleveland wants in return.

If Ford is to be believed, there isn't all that much heat being generated. Seems like the unusually distinct prospects that have gotten the top 6 grades: Noel, Porter, Len, Oladipo, Bennett and McLemore all have landing spots for particular teams, and teams that have multiple fits that work for them. There is no clear tier of separation between these guys to scouts, and so teams are basically targeting certain particular players for needs, and have fall back plans that generally negate the point of trading up. The only teams that really seem all that interested in moving up appear to be Minny, and maybe Milwaukee, and neither are offering anything to attract a team to move down. I could see Phoenix, or New Orleans possibly trading up, but they'd only need to go to 2 or 3, they don't need to go to #1, since their targets appear highly unlikely to go #1 overall.

I don't think Cleveland's gonna move out of #1. The offers will be nickels on the dollar compared to better drafts, and not remotely worth the cost of having access to whatever player they want. Those suggested offers a page or so ago I simply can't see happening, I don't think they're in the interests of the teams involved. Orlando is fine with any of the five directions they could go, while Charlotte/Phoenix/New Orleans sound like they're all fine with taking whomever falls to them amongst McLemore/Oladipo/Len/Porter/Bennett.

[nate33]

If Ford is to be believed, there isn't all that much heat being generated. Seems like the unusually distinct prospects that have gotten the top 6 grades: Noel, Porter, Len, Oladipo, Bennett and McLemore all have landing spots for particular teams, and teams that have multiple fits that work for them. There is no clear tier of separation between these guys to scouts, and so teams are basically targeting certain particular players for needs, and have fall back plans that generally negate the point of trading up. The only teams that really seem all that interested in moving up appear to be Minny, and maybe Milwaukee, and neither are offering anything to attract a team to move down. I could see Phoenix, or New Orleans possibly trading up, but they'd only need to go to 2 or 3, they don't need to go to #1, since their targets appear highly unlikely to go #1 overall.

I don't think Cleveland's gonna move out of #1. The offers will be nickels on the dollar compared to better drafts, and not remotely worth the cost of having access to whatever player they want. Those suggested offers a page or so ago I simply can't see happening, I don't think they're in the interests of the teams involved. Orlando is fine with any of the five directions they could go, while Charlotte/Phoenix/New Orleans sound like they're all fine with taking whomever falls to them amongst McLemore/Oladipo/Len/Porter/Bennett.

In general I agree with this. My only difference is that I wouldn't say the top 6 teams won't move around. Rather, I think the price to move around is going to be a lot smaller. Teams might throw in a 2nd rounder here or there to move up, but that's about it.

The Cleveland situation is a good example. They probably want Porter, but know that Noel has a little more value in the abstract. There's no reason they don't at least call up Washington and see if Washington will cough up the #38 pick to move up to #1. If Cleveland wants Porter, what's the harm? They still get him, but at a lower salary, without the pressure of being number 1, and with an extra 2nd rounder as incentive.

Washington might well go ahead and make that trade. Coughing up the #38 to ensure that they land Noel is better than being stuck with Oladipo, Zeller or Bennett.

[The Consiglieri]

^
But the Cavs want Porter and he won't last past us. I think Cleveland has to call us if they want to trade down.

It's a game of chicken. Cleveland wants Porter but doesn't really want to take him at #1. Orlando won't trade up because they're just as happy with McLemore as they are with Noel. It doesn't bother us much if Cleveland drafts Noel because we'll end up with Porter. The only thing that scares us if if Cleveland actually drafts Porter, leaving Orlando to draft Noel.

So what do we do if Cleveland demands a future 1st from us to move up to #1. If we don't, they'll threaten to go ahead and draft Porter and leave us with the nightmare scenario of having neither Noel or Porter on the board.

Do we consider Noel to be so much better of an option than Bennett that's it's worth sacrificing a future 1st? (I'd definitely give up the #38, I'm just conflicted about giving up anything more.)

Cleveland trading down only works if they have two players they are equally OK with. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cavs would be happy with Olapido as much as Porter. Olapido shows up really well on the analytics, so its not out of the realm of possibility. This would give them a great 3 guard rotation. Waiters could play with Olapido just fine. If this is the case, they would be more worried that the Suns or Bobcats want someone other than Olapido - most likely Noel or Mclemore.

EDIT: And no, in this draft, we definitely don't give up a first. We find 3 players we are OK with drafting and pick according to our board.

And for the record, there is no nightmare scenario for us or Cleveland. From every kernel of information that's been dug up in the past several months, it sounds pretty clear that Cleveland and Washington have fairly similar boards with possibly only one major difference that being Oladipo high up there in Cleveland, while Bennett is the one high up there with us. Cleveland's board sounds like it involves Noel, Len, and Porter, w/Oladipo recently added, while we appear to be focused on Noel, Porter, Bennett and Len. For all the nightmare talk, and what we'd do talk, we're a team that leaks a ton, and considering the word of mouth about our interests in Porter, Noel, Len and Bennett, I think it's pretty clear what the team is interested in doing, and what it isn't interested in doing (there is no evidence to speak of regarding an interest in either Oladipo or Zeller).

I don't think Cleveland's really afraid of anything at all, they really like at least 3 or 4 guys, I think their chief concern is how the final board is going to look and whether or not its worthwhile to drop a few slots, and get one of the later guys on their board in exchange for a very minor return, if there is even any interest to begin with. I would agree that if any team is interested in moving up, its one of Charlotte, Phoenix, or New Orleans. Washington and Orlando are perfectly fine w/the 2 and 3 slot, and that's basically why I don't believe a trade down is going to happen. Can Cleveland afford to deal down to 5 or 6? I don't see how. The guys they like almost certainly will be gone. They could deal down to 4 but I don't sense Charlotte being interested in moving up to #1. Like Phoenix and Orlando, Charlotte knows they'll finish bottom 3-5 again next year, in an infinitely better draft, and they have needs all over the place, any of which can be dealt with perfectly effectively at #4 (likely players available will be 3 of the 4 among Bennett/Oladipo/McLemore/Len).

A trade may happen, but I can't see why any of these teams would pull the trigger with Cleveland, or why Cleveland would do so with them. At the end of the day everybody's happy w/what they've got save for Minnesota several slots down the board from them, and Minny doesn't have the pieces in place to make the deal worthwhile to anybody.

[sfam]

http://www.monumentalnetwork.com/videos/anthony-bennett-interview-6-13-13/index.jsp

Bennett says his standing reach measured at 8'9".

That doesn't help his case.

7'2" wingspan though, that's pretty decent for his size. I just don't buy that one inch is a make or break. His athletic prowess helps overcome it, similar to Blake.

[sfam]

If Ford is to be believed, there isn't all that much heat being generated. Seems like the unusually distinct prospects that have gotten the top 6 grades: Noel, Porter, Len, Oladipo, Bennett and McLemore all have landing spots for particular teams, and teams that have multiple fits that work for them. There is no clear tier of separation between these guys to scouts, and so teams are basically targeting certain particular players for needs, and have fall back plans that generally negate the point of trading up. The only teams that really seem all that interested in moving up appear to be Minny, and maybe Milwaukee, and neither are offering anything to attract a team to move down. I could see Phoenix, or New Orleans possibly trading up, but they'd only need to go to 2 or 3, they don't need to go to #1, since their targets appear highly unlikely to go #1 overall.

I don't think Cleveland's gonna move out of #1. The offers will be nickels on the dollar compared to better drafts, and not remotely worth the cost of having access to whatever player they want. Those suggested offers a page or so ago I simply can't see happening, I don't think they're in the interests of the teams involved. Orlando is fine with any of the five directions they could go, while Charlotte/Phoenix/New Orleans sound like they're all fine with taking whomever falls to them amongst McLemore/Oladipo/Len/Porter/Bennett.

+1 Good analysis Consig.

[DCZards]

7'2" wingspan though, that's pretty decent for his size. I just don't buy that one inch is a make or break. His athletic prowess helps overcome it, similar to Blake.

Agreed. I don't see these measurements having much of an impact on Bennett's standing in the draft. I doubt that GMs would pass on a player whose skillset they really like because his standing reach is an inch or half inch less than another player.

[The Consiglieri]

If Ford is to be believed, there isn't all that much heat being generated. Seems like the unusually distinct prospects that have gotten the top 6 grades: Noel, Porter, Len, Oladipo, Bennett and McLemore all have landing spots for particular teams, and teams that have multiple fits that work for them. There is no clear tier of separation between these guys to scouts, and so teams are basically targeting certain particular players for needs, and have fall back plans that generally negate the point of trading up. The only teams that really seem all that interested in moving up appear to be Minny, and maybe Milwaukee, and neither are offering anything to attract a team to move down. I could see Phoenix, or New Orleans possibly trading up, but they'd only need to go to 2 or 3, they don't need to go to #1, since their targets appear highly unlikely to go #1 overall.

I don't think Cleveland's gonna move out of #1. The offers will be nickels on the dollar compared to better drafts, and not remotely worth the cost of having access to whatever player they want. Those suggested offers a page or so ago I simply can't see happening, I don't think they're in the interests of the teams involved. Orlando is fine with any of the five directions they could go, while Charlotte/Phoenix/New Orleans sound like they're all fine with taking whomever falls to them amongst McLemore/Oladipo/Len/Porter/Bennett.

In general I agree with this. My only difference is that I wouldn't say the top 6 teams won't move around. Rather, I think the price to move around is going to be a lot smaller. Teams might throw in a 2nd rounder here or there to move up, but that's about it.

The Cleveland situation is a good example. They probably want Porter, but know that Noel has a little more value in the abstract. There's no reason they don't at least call up Washington and see if Washington will cough up the #38 pick to move up to #1. If Cleveland wants Porter, what's the harm? They still get him, but at a lower salary, without the pressure of being number 1, and with an extra 2nd rounder as incentive.

Washington might well go ahead and make that trade. Coughing up the #38 to ensure that they land Noel is better than being stuck with Oladipo, Zeller or Bennett.

Why would Cleveland do this if they already own #19, #31 and #33? I don't see the point in picking up #38 as well in exchange for sacrificing access to their choice on exactly what player they want the most? I suppose it's possible but I seriously doubt it. They have a million picks the next few drafts, and I would imagine are more interested in getting bang for their buck, then adding more bullets. Supposedly they like Karasev, Caldwell Pope, and a few other SG/SF prospects for the #19.

[The Consiglieri]

7'2" wingspan though, that's pretty decent for his size. I just don't buy that one inch is a make or break. His athletic prowess helps overcome it, similar to Blake.

Agreed. I don't see these measurements having much of an impact on Bennett's standing in the draft. I doubt that GMs would pass on a player whose skillset they really like because his standing reach is an inch or half inch less than another player.

Kind of odd that Zeller's fixed Standing Reach elicited sighs of relief from his supporters as a C/PF prospect, but a 1 inch shorter measurement for Bennett is somehow catastrophic especially considering he's a far more above the rim oriented player than Zeller.

One other note, the Cavs apparently are also intrigued by McLemore, but smoke signals out of Cleveland are not nearly as predictive as those from our idiotic front office. I feel sometimes like our front office is the proverbial dunderhead 19th century settler holding BBQ's in Sioux country, never even considering the potential liability such an action might be for himself.

[sfam]

Prada in the comments section of his post on this questioned whether Bennett's injury might have shrunk his standing height measurement. This is not out of the range of possibility.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Tomorrow's the big day!

http://www.nba.com/wizards/2013-draft-central

Porter, 5 Others to Workout on Friday

The following players are currently scheduled to participate in Friday's workout: Jackie Carmichael (Illinois St), Kevin Dillard (Dayton), Ryan Evans (Wisconsin), Viktor Gaddefors (Sweeden), Bruce Massey (Middle Tennessee), & Otto Porter (Georgetown).

[popper]

EG better have a strategy above and beyond taking BPA at 3. Our team needs a stronger bench and more scoring while maintaining a focus on defense.

[gambitx777]

EG better have a strategy above and beyond taking BPA at 3. Our team needs a stronger bench and more scoring while maintaining a focus on defense.

His main focus should be not to keep wasting every pick he makes out side of the top 5. He needs to start putting more work in to the second round.

[GhostsOfGil]

I think there are 3 likely scenarios:

1. Cavs take Noel. Magic take McLemore/Oladipo/Burke. Wiz take Porter.
2. Cavs take Porter. Magic take Noel. Wiz take Bennett.
3. Cavs take Porter. Magic take McLemore/Oladipo/Burke. Wiz take Noel.

My preference in order would be scenario 3, 1, 2 but I would be happy with any one of these guys.

[gambitx777]

See Noel makes me very nervous. I really think he could go the way of Greg Odin or Thabeat. If teams that draft better than us, such as the Cav's and the Magic. I would much rather taken Bennett, Len or Oladipo if Porter is gone. If its Noel or Len, I'm taking Len.

[The Consiglieri]

I think there are 3 likely scenarios:

1. Cavs take Noel. Magic take McLemore/Oladipo/Burke. Wiz take Porter.
2. Cavs take Porter. Magic take Noel. Wiz take Bennett.
3. Cavs take Porter. Magic take McLemore/Oladipo/Burke. Wiz take Noel.

My preference in order would be scenario 3, 1, 2 but I would be happy with any one of these guys.

90% in line w/my thoughts. My only addendum is that I think we could take Len in scenario 1 and scenario 2.

[keynote]

I dunno if this clip of Zeller's workout w/ the Kings has already been posted, but here you go:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abPOpSJ0ovQ[/youtube]

You get a nice look at Zeller's shooting form. His release point is a little low for my tastes, but it looks fluid and accurate.