Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[Dark Faze]

Is Zeller going to be that much better than Muscala to justify such a wide separation in draft rank? Don't know, just asking.

Zeller far superior upside due to age, played superior competition, is much stronger and athletic than Muscala..yea, not sure how they are even close as prospects. Muscala at this point the only thing I see translating well is his jumpshot, and there is a good chance Zeller will be a decent shooter as time goes on.

Glad that Otto is coming into town. Wiz tend to leak who they like based on workouts as was the case with Beal last year, so today is pretty big in terms of knowing where we are leaning.

[doclinkin]

Is Zeller going to be that much better than Muscala to justify such a wide separation in draft rank? Don't know, just asking.

Yes on Pick and Roll defense. Zeller has quick feet, and a frame that can take more strength. Muscala will have to foul to stay in the picture and is not strong enough to hold position in the front court against widebodies and aff-elites.

[rockymac52]

Thanks for posting, key, and I agree with your assessment -- release is a little low (and he also brings the ball down much lower than he needs to), but there's a clear competence there.

While my clear preference remains for Porter, if he's off the board I think the Wiz could do a lot worse than Zeller at #3. No, he's not going to be a dominant defensive center, but I have a hard team seeing how he doesn't help a team offensively. It would be a low risk, low reward proposition.

If he were available in some sort of good trade down scenario, I'd consider it, especially if Porter is off the board.

Every time Zeller's name comes up, I keep trying to think of why he shouldn't go in the top 3 or 4, and I'm having trouble coming up with a good answer. He is a freak athlete. He was a very productive player in college. He is a winner. He is an extremely hard worker. He is skilled in the post and out on the perimeter. He plays a position of need.

Are we overthinking this? Why not just take him and be happy?

I'd rather Zeller over Bennett. I would just prefer to get him on a trade down picking something else of value along the way. If possible. But would not cry at all if we chose him.

To me at this point in order to not overthink things and select a player one criteria of evaluation is to ask myself: "Could they play for the Spurs?"

Not 'could Popovich et al make a player out of them?' -- though Wittman is in the Popovich mold and will sit a player who does not defend, we lack the will to use the DLeague as a resource and lack the infrastructure to train new players.

But: could they step on court and play for Pop TODAY.

Here's the list:
1. Noel. In a limited role, yes.
3. Porter. No question. In a Danny Green role without the early struggles. Thus better upside.
5. Oladipo. Bruce Bowen style. yes.
7, 8. Burke, maybe, McCollum, yes.
11. Zeller of course. Gives good effort at both ends, high IQ, nice size for the position.
12. KCP. maybe.... He's a role-player with an NBA position: hits the 3, hits jumpers after motion, rebounds well for the position. I think I like him more than Pop does. He'd see DLeague time unless he figured out team D fast. But if you rebound, defend and hit the 3 you can play for Pop. He'd work his way back. But maybe = no.
13. MCW. Maybe.... no. He needs to shoot to play for the Spurs though. So no.
17. Olynyk. In a Bonner role.
18. Mason Plumlee. Absolutely. Plumlee is a typical Spurs pick. Overlooked solid role player, unexciting but plays a needed role. Longtime starter from a great NCAA program that teaches fundamentally sound smart ball. Yes.
20. Gorgui Dieng. Yes. Passes well too. Though his positional defense is not as good as it could be, he occasionally allows players to blow by so that he can shadow them for a block from behind, he's smart enough to grasp the Spurs system quickly and captain the defense whenever Tim can't go.
24. Bullock. Same reasoning as Mason Plumlee but in that Bruce Bowen 3&D role. This year's Danny Green.
28. Isaiah Canaan.
29. Jeff Withey.

International players were all cut from the above list since they may well simply play overseas if selected by San Antonio. On the Spurs, any potential international Euro-players from Alex Len on down would be draft-and-season targets, but not necessarily brought over today, no matter how highly they were taken.

Splitter first came on the radar as a potential #1 overall selection at age 17 or so, back when barelyawake and I were on the ESPN boards. He fell because he inked overseas to a contract that held him there for a while The Spurs jumped at the opportunity to snatch a great talent with a surefire education in BBall. He was to play next to or behind world champion Marc Gasol, he could definitely learn to play with or behind Duncan.

In round 2 there are: Erick Green, Mike Muscala, Nate Wolters, maybe Solomon Hill. And DEFINITELY Arsalan Kazemi who adds the benefit of being an overseas prospect while he develops a ranged jumper.

I look at Andre Roberson as a Kawhi Leonard type project, playing well at both ends and rebounding remarkably, but needing his jumper fixed. Because of that he's a developmental-type project that Pop would develop well but I lack confidence in our ability to do so.

So yes, no matter the upside and potential, as a circuit breaker to enthusiasm I commonly fall back on the binary metric: Yes/No, Would the Spurs play them today? If No. I have to take a 2nd look at how much I like them and why.

+1. I've been using the "would the Spurs draft/sign this player?" method a lot recently. It has been unbelievably accurate, IMO. Granted, they're all my opinions on who the Spurs would draft/sign, and not who the Spurs would necessarily ACTUALLY draft/sign, but still.

Another thing to keep in mind: anyone can be a draft and stash guy. Even an American player taken in the 1st round. It's up to him and his team.

The Spurs have been able to consistently bring in new talent in part due to their patience and foresight. Drafting guys like Splitter who have signed deals with international teams and won't be able to come to the NBA for 2-4 years, but have lottery talent, is a proven method to achieving consistent success.

Lots of examples across the league of guys like that, but here's one that I think will come to your attention in the near future, next summer to be exact. Nikola Mirotic. The Bulls drafted Mirotic with the 23rd pick in 2011, and his current deal will be up next summer, when he's expected to sign with the Bulls, probably for an MLE-sized salary. That kid is GOOD. He's the stretch 4 we've been dreaming of. He's going to seriously impress, and will solidify the Bulls' already fantastic front court, even if they part ways with Boozer as a result. I wish there was some way for us to acquire him, but I honestly don't see a realistic trade opportunity, mostly because I think the Bulls know how great he is and have no interest in trading him.

[Dark Faze]

The more I look at Bennett the more I think he's the 10 th best prospect in this draft at best

Guys I take before him without question: Noel, Burke, Porter, McLemore, Len, Burke, Zeller, Oladipo, Adams.

I think you could select him over McCollum and Olynyk but I'd be hesitant.

Those 9 guys I named above though, yea, no way.

I mean the more I look at Bennett--he's just the biggest risk in this draft and I don't know if its close. Guys like Len and Noel have health risks but their floors are pretty high. Very low chance that Noel doesn't succeed defensively at the next level and Len is going to at least be a better backup center than most teams have in the league.

Bennett though is just as injury prone as those guys and I'm not sure his floor is all that high. Just looking a thow he scored in college--if his jumpshot isn't absolutely elite he's not going to be a starter in the league. He's coming into the league with way more issues than Derrick Williams and Beasley ever had and those guys are struggling to remain on teams as bench guys.

[Ruzious]

Re requirements for Pop players, I think among the requirements are the ability to hit perimeter jumpers and to complement their big 3. Splitter's the only guy who plays who you can question his jump shot - but he does the grunt work allowing Duncan to be more productive. Blair doesn't shoot jumpers and... rarely plays. He'd be better off with another organization.

[stevemcqueen1]

That woud be a dream scenario. I'd love that, and might even consider agreeing to renew EG's contract if he were able to pull that off. a Bennet/Zeller + Adams draft would be stellar.

Well, I'm not sure either Bennett or Zeller will be there at 6, although Zeller seems to be pretty low on the draft boards.

I'm not sold on Adams and I wouldn't take him before the 20s. I just see no tangible NBA offensive skills, no role for him on that side of the court, and thus no reason to put him in lineups. He wasn't ready for the NBA this year and he only came out for the money. Right now, he is literally nothing more than a body. I would really hesitate to bring in another guy with no skills.

[doclinkin]

Re requirements for Pop players, I think among the requirements are the ability to hit perimeter jumpers and to complement their big 3. Splitter's the only guy who plays who you can question his jump shot - but he does the grunt work allowing Duncan to be more productive. Blair doesn't shoot jumpers and... rarely plays. He'd be better off with another organization.

The first requirement is defense at your position and in a team scheme. Blair rebounds but doesn't have the reach to defend in the front court.

Smart passing to swing the ball at a touch.

Hitting open shots.

Effort and a willingness to follow orders.

Pretty simple.

When barely and I argued for Splitter he was a sweet-passing point forward with an outside shot and a nice handle. Then he stiffened and became a frontcourt-only player. But still passes intelligently and defends the interior.

[rockymac52]

Re requirements for Pop players, I think among the requirements are the ability to hit perimeter jumpers and to complement their big 3. Splitter's the only guy who plays who you can question his jump shot - but he does the grunt work allowing Duncan to be more productive. Blair doesn't shoot jumpers and... rarely plays. He'd be better off with another organization.

The first requirement is defense at your position and in a team scheme. Blair rebounds but doesn't have the reach to defend in the front court.

Smart passing to swing the ball at a touch.

Hitting open shots.

Effort and a willingness to follow orders.

Pretty simple.

I'd like to add "self awareness."

Players who think they can do things that they can't don't get signed by the Spurs. Players who know and accept their optimal roles are players that fit in with the Spurs, and are found on championship rosters.

[GhostsOfGil]

Is Zeller even scheduled to work out with the Wiz?

Edit* just saw that CSN reported that Zeller declined Washingtons workout invitation.

Prospects who have declined invitations to workout for Washington include Cody Zeller (Indiana) and Erick Greene (Virginia Tech).
...

Zeller, Oladipo and McCollum did interview with the Wizards in Chicago.

[Dat2U]

Here's a more thorough breakdown of my TIERs.

TIER II:

CE Nerlens Noel
... the good / freak, ++ defense. 1st team all defensive potential. Lightning quick hands, reflexes.
... the bad / skinny, 2nd ACL tear, will likely always be limited offensively.

SF Otto Porter
... the good / Excellent length, high IQ, solid improving skillset w/ decent handle & excellent passing ability. Effective spot up shooter. + defender & rebounder. Level of progression from year to year.
... the bad / shooting off the dribble, first step. Lack of explosiveness.

SG Victor Oladipo
... the good / Explosive athlete, high IQ, + defender. Lightning quick hands, reflexes. Level of progression year to year. Improved jumper & mechanics. Respectable slasher.
... the bad / Modest skill level. Handle is still somewhat raw. Small sample size on improved jumper. Uber athlete but only avg footspeed.

TIER III

PF Cody Zeller
... the good / Very good athlete. High motor. High IQ. Very productive in college. Has face up skills to step out as a pick & pop 4.
... the bad / lacks ideal length. Weak, struggles with strength. Must get stronger in upper body. So so rebounder. Jumper wasn't used in college, must show he hasn't lost skill.

CE Alex Len
... the good / + athlete for C. + size for position. Very mobile. Developing skill away from basket. Can step out and face up effectively. Solid low post defender already. Excellent offensive & defense tools... potential to be two way big.
... the bad / Must get stronger, tougher. Weak low post game offensively. Struggles to finish w/ contact. Focus and attentiveness can wain. Only an ok rebounder. Coming off foot surgery which is a red flag for guys his size.

FC Kelly Olynyk
... the good / Highest skill level of any big in draft and in recent years. Can score inside and out. Can post up and finish at high level and can step out and face up. Excellent shooter with range from 3. Smooth, crafty and mobile. Took year off to totally revamp his game which shows work ethic.
... the bad / Not ideal size for C position. Not a great defender or rebounder (merely adequate for WCC). Not a great athlete and can be outmuscled and outquicked. Doesn't have a long track record of success at age 22.

TIER IV

PG Trey Burke
.... the good / Excellent skill level. Has triple threat skills. Can shoot with range, break down defenders or find the open man. Very crafty. Excellent floor leader and carried his team at times. Showed clutch ability in NCAAs.
... the bad / So-so athlete at position loaded with athleticism. Not explosive. Struggles to finish in the paint. Can he get into the lane against NBA comp? Defense will be an issue. Struggled keeping players in front of him.

PG C.J. McCollum
... the good / Prototypical 3rd guard at next level. Triple threat scorer with high skill level. Can shoot effectively with range. Excelled against high level competition at small school.
... the bad / Ok athleticism, questionable first step. Can he get into the lane against NBA talent? Poor finisher at rim. Will mainly rely on his jumper, how good is it? Had seasons he shot it better than others. Seems streaky. Only so-so decision making as a PG.

SG Ben McLemore
... the good / Elite level athlete. Pure shooter with excellent mechanics. Elite in transition and finishing at the rim. Excellent physical tools that have many projecting him to be a potential star.
... the bad / Poor handles. Showed little ability to create off the bounce. Most likely a spot up & catch & shoot type at next level. Questions about his passiveness & overall makeup (tough minded enough?).

PF Anthony Bennett
... the good / Unique combo of size & skill at 250 lbs. Advanced face up game. Solid shooter. Ability to create and shoot of the dribble. Potential to cause mismatches against slower bigs. Strong finisher inside.
... the bad / Classic tweener, lacks ideal length. Awareness off the ball is questionable. Poor passer. Very poor defender. Questionable effort defensively. Asthma related issues may curtail heavy minutes.

SF Shabazz Muhammad
... the good / ideal size & frame for SF position. Built like a tank. Developed mid-range and post game. Solid outside shooter. Hard worker that plays with energy and intensity.
... the bad / Weak at creating off the bounce. First step doesn't allow him to break down defenders. Likely a spot up shooter at next level. A bit of ball hog. Questionable if he's a good teammate or not. Didn't display same level of intensity on defensive end. Older for frosh prospect.

PG Dennis Schroeder
... the good / Explosive athlete with excellent tools. Shows good floor vision and ability to break down defenders. Effective outside shooter with range
... the bad / Poor finisher at the rim. Struggles with contact. A bit frail, can he handle the physicality at 165?

CE Gorgui Dieng
... the good / + defender with high IQ. Has strength to hold position and may be able to contribute immediately at the next level. Solid athlete with ideal size for position. Mobile, very good at rotating and challenging shots. Improving as spot up mid range shooter and solid decision maker with the ball.
... the bad / Still raw offensively with limited skillset. Struggles in post up scenarios to convert. One of the older prospects in the draft. May only have the ceiling of a good backup.

Will do TIER V & TIER VI later....

[Ruzious]

Re requirements for Pop players, I think among the requirements are the ability to hit perimeter jumpers and to complement their big 3. Splitter's the only guy who plays who you can question his jump shot - but he does the grunt work allowing Duncan to be more productive. Blair doesn't shoot jumpers and... rarely plays. He'd be better off with another organization.

The first requirement is defense at your position and in a team scheme. Blair rebounds but doesn't have the reach to defend in the front court.

Smart passing to swing the ball at a touch.

Hitting open shots.

Effort and a willingness to follow orders.

Pretty simple.

So you wouldn't want Blair on your team?

[doclinkin]

Re requirements for Pop players, I think among the requirements are the ability to hit perimeter jumpers and to complement their big 3. Splitter's the only guy who plays who you can question his jump shot - but he does the grunt work allowing Duncan to be more productive. Blair doesn't shoot jumpers and... rarely plays. He'd be better off with another organization.

The first requirement is defense at your position and in a team scheme. Blair rebounds but doesn't have the reach to defend in the front court.

Smart passing to swing the ball at a touch.

Hitting open shots.

Effort and a willingness to follow orders.

Pretty simple.

I'd like to add "self awareness."

Players who think they can do things that they can't don't get signed by the Spurs. Players who know and accept their optimal roles are players that fit in with the Spurs, and are found on championship rosters.

I put that under willingness to follow orders. If they aren't self aware Pop will very much make them aware of themself. See Danny Green.

[doclinkin]

Re requirements for Pop players, I think among the requirements are the ability to hit perimeter jumpers and to complement their big 3. Splitter's the only guy who plays who you can question his jump shot - but he does the grunt work allowing Duncan to be more productive. Blair doesn't shoot jumpers and... rarely plays. He'd be better off with another organization.

The first requirement is defense at your position and in a team scheme. Blair rebounds but doesn't have the reach to defend in the front court.

Smart passing to swing the ball at a touch.

Hitting open shots.

Effort and a willingness to follow orders.

Pretty simple.

So you wouldn't want Blair on your team?

Where he was drafted he was a steal. I would probably play him more than Bonner, but I'm an idiot. Pop's a hall of famer.

[Ruzious]

The first requirement is defense at your position and in a team scheme. Blair rebounds but doesn't have the reach to defend in the front court.

Smart passing to swing the ball at a touch.

Hitting open shots.

Effort and a willingness to follow orders.

Pretty simple.

So you wouldn't want Blair on your team?

Where he was drafted he was a steal. I would probably play him more than Bonner, but I'm an idiot. Pop's a hall of famer.

I can't argue any of that.

[pancakes3]

Thanks for posting, key, and I agree with your assessment -- release is a little low (and he also brings the ball down much lower than he needs to), but there's a clear competence there.

While my clear preference remains for Porter, if he's off the board I think the Wiz could do a lot worse than Zeller at #3. No, he's not going to be a dominant defensive center, but I have a hard team seeing how he doesn't help a team offensively. It would be a low risk, low reward proposition.

If he were available in some sort of good trade down scenario, I'd consider it, especially if Porter is off the board.

Every time Zeller's name comes up, I keep trying to think of why he shouldn't go in the top 3 or 4, and I'm having trouble coming up with a good answer. He is a freak athlete. He was a very productive player in college. He is a winner. He is an extremely hard worker. He is skilled in the post and out on the perimeter. He plays a position of need.

Are we overthinking this? Why not just take him and be happy?

Between the Kings workout video you posted and Doc's endorsement, I'm quickly being swayed as well. He only has 1 knock and that's his arm length. Other than that his skill level, size, athleticism, and body of work are all outstanding. In fact, with his recent bulking up and evidence of a 3 point shot I'll go as far as to say that he could have Kevin Love potential. Taller, faster, stronger, more athletic, same reach...

[stevemcqueen1]

7'2" wingspan though, that's pretty decent for his size. I just don't buy that one inch is a make or break. His athletic prowess helps overcome it, similar to Blake.

Agreed. I don't see these measurements having much of an impact on Bennett's standing in the draft. I doubt that GMs would pass on a player whose skillset they really like because his standing reach is an inch or half inch less than another player.

Kind of odd that Zeller's fixed Standing Reach elicited sighs of relief from his supporters as a C/PF prospect, but a 1 inch shorter measurement for Bennett is somehow catastrophic especially considering he's a far more above the rim oriented player than Zeller.

One other note, the Cavs apparently are also intrigued by McLemore, but smoke signals out of Cleveland are not nearly as predictive as those from our idiotic front office. I feel sometimes like our front office is the proverbial dunderhead 19th century settler holding BBQ's in Sioux country, never even considering the potential liability such an action might be for himself.

I'd be surprised if most teams picking at the top didn't have some interest in McLemore because he's a consensus top two or top three pick.

I agree about Bennett's standing reach too. I think his package of physical attributes is good for the PF position. No one number is going to make or break that.

I've been reconsidering Bennett more lately. I think he might be more of a low ceiling, high floor player than people are saying. Kind of like a more skilled and athletic Paul Millsap. He's got excellent rebounding and offensive skills that will allow him to get on the floor and score points and hang around the league for a long time. But his subpar defense could limit him from becoming an All Star type.

I thought he might be a poor fit for personality reasons, but I don't know his personality. And nobody else here does either. Skill-wise, he could be a great fit here. He definitively offers us something we don't already have and Zeller is probably the only other player in the class who offers a similarly potent variety of offensive skills. I can tangibly envision an offensive role for Bennett, tons of plays and situations where he can score. Can't say that for a lot of the other names being bandied about. Not for Len and absolutely not for Adams.

Every team could really use a good offensive finisher in the front court. It's really struck me how poor a job Miami and SA's PFs and Cs have done finishing this series, it's a surprising weakness for both teams given the names they've got. But it's been a weakness nonetheless. I don't want to get into a position where we've got these great guards but we don't have an inside finisher to pair with them and our offensive efficiency drops in the postseason from lack of balance.

I'm fully aware that your work isn't done after a Bennett pick. You pretty much have to go out and find a defensively competent C with size that can protect the rim in order to stay balanced. The Memphis approach. That's a challenge, but not a reason to avoid Bennett. Bennett could be a major piece in and of himself.

[Nivek]

I agree with the observations about Zeller's release point in the video.

What bugged me: in the pick & pop drills, he faded to the baseline and took long twos. It would be better to fade to the corner and shoot that three. He demonstrated earlier in the video that he has a 3pt stroke.

That could be a Kings issue, though. The coaches running that drill should have told him what they wanted him to do. Meaning, they should have told him to get to 3pt line instead of shooting long twos.

[stevemcqueen1]

I think there are 3 likely scenarios:

1. Cavs take Noel. Magic take McLemore/Oladipo/Burke. Wiz take Porter.
2. Cavs take Porter. Magic take Noel. Wiz take Bennett.
3. Cavs take Porter. Magic take McLemore/Oladipo/Burke. Wiz take Noel.

My preference in order would be scenario 3, 1, 2 but I would be happy with any one of these guys.

I think I've got the same preference.

I just want to come away with one of Noel, Porter, Bennett, or Zeller. Shouldn't be that hard picking at three. I'm going to be worried if Len is the pick.

[Nivek]

Can't remember where I saw the discussion, but I'm not at all convinced the Spurs deserve much credit for "developing" Danny Green. Green was a very good college player -- one of the most underrated players I have in YODA (comparing YODA score to where he got picked and how he had to scrap for a job). He rated as a top 7 pick in his senior year. The fact that he's a good pro really shouldn't be much of a surprise.

The Spurs deserve credit for picking him up when he was on the street, and then for eventually realizing what they had. I say "eventually" because Green's transaction history is kinda amusing:

- June 25, 2009 -- drafted by CLE 2nd round
- October 19, 2010 -- waived by CLE
- November 17, 2010 -- signed by SAS
- November 23, 2010 -- waived by SAS
- March 16, 2011 -- signed by SAS for rest of season

Then the Spurs re-signed him to a 3-year contract for decent money. And, he started 80 games, led the team in total minutes, and emerged as one of the better defenders in the game.

[nate33]

Screw it. Zeller is now 3rd on my draft board behind Noel and Porter. I just don't see how he won't succeed in this league. At worst, he'll be a better-shooting Nick Collison - and that's a starter. At best, he's Chris Bosh - and that's an All Star.

I think he can raise the release point of his jumper without too much difficulty. I did the same thing myself about a year ago while coming off my ACL injury. I figured I wouldn't get as much elevation anymore so I could compensate by raising my release point. Within a month or two, I had my new form down and shot as well as always (a little better, actually). And that's just with a few hours of shooting around in the gym. Zeller is going to shoot more in a week than I did in two months.