Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[verbal8]

Can't remember where I saw the discussion, but I'm not at all convinced the Spurs deserve much credit for "developing" Danny Green. Green was a very good college player -- one of the most underrated players I have in YODA (comparing YODA score to where he got picked and how he had to scrap for a job). He rated as a top 7 pick in his senior year. The fact that he's a good pro really shouldn't be much of a surprise.

The Spurs deserve credit for picking him up when he was on the street, and then for eventually realizing what they had. I say "eventually" because Green's transaction history is kinda amusing:

- June 25, 2009 -- drafted by CLE 2nd round
- October 19, 2010 -- waived by CLE
- November 17, 2010 -- signed by SAS
- November 23, 2010 -- waived by SAS
- March 16, 2011 -- signed by SAS for rest of season

Then the Spurs re-signed him to a 3-year contract for decent money. And, he started 80 games, led the team in total minutes, and emerged as one of the better defenders in the game.

It is possible he learned more about being an NBA player in those 6 days, than he did in the year plus in Cleveland.

[Dat2U]

Agreed. I don't see these measurements having much of an impact on Bennett's standing in the draft. I doubt that GMs would pass on a player whose skillset they really like because his standing reach is an inch or half inch less than another player.

Kind of odd that Zeller's fixed Standing Reach elicited sighs of relief from his supporters as a C/PF prospect, but a 1 inch shorter measurement for Bennett is somehow catastrophic especially considering he's a far more above the rim oriented player than Zeller.

One other note, the Cavs apparently are also intrigued by McLemore, but smoke signals out of Cleveland are not nearly as predictive as those from our idiotic front office. I feel sometimes like our front office is the proverbial dunderhead 19th century settler holding BBQ's in Sioux country, never even considering the potential liability such an action might be for himself.

I'd be surprised if most teams picking at the top didn't have some interest in McLemore because he's a consensus top two or top three pick.

I agree about Bennett's standing reach too. I think his package of physical attributes is good for the PF position. No one number is going to make or break that.

Maybe I'm the nutcase but that one inch can be pretty big in terms of being able to effective challenge shots and get off your shot at the next level. I'm not sure why folks aren't thinking like this isn't a game of inches or even centimeters. Very little seperates guys at this level so any advantage or disadvantage should be looked at throughly.

What Bennett's standing reach does is confirm the concerns I had about his tweener status. Now we know why he fancies himself as a 2/3. Taking tweeners in the top of the lottery usually ends up being a mistake. Maybe Bennett is different and he's the unique 6-7 PF that will break the mold and be a star. But I wouldn't use a top 5 pick to find that out. As a late lottery choice, Bennett would represent a better value as a calculated risk.

[Dat2U]

Screw it. Zeller is now 3rd on my draft board behind Noel and Porter. I just don't see how he won't succeed in this league. At worst, he'll be a better-shooting Nick Collison - and that's a starter. At best, he's Chris Bosh - and that's an All Star.

I think he can raise the release point of his jumper without too much difficulty. I did the same thing myself about a year ago while coming off my ACL injury. I figured I wouldn't get as much elevation anymore so I could compensate by raising my release point. Within a month or two, I had my new form down and shot as well as always (a little better, actually). And that's just with a few hours of shooting around in the gym. Zeller is going to shoot more in a week than I did in two months.

Well Zeller's now 4th on my board so I understand why folks are high on him. Mines is more of a tepid endorsement however, a sign of why I think the draft is weak at the top of the lottery. Only reasons I have him over Len is because of Len's foot injury and over Olynyk b/c Olynyk doesn't have a clear position to defend. But if I watch some scouting video of getting bullied by Trevor Mbakwe or abused by Syracuse's frontline of future Adriatic League all-stars then he might slip again on my board.

[pancakes3]

I don't think the release point for a 7 footer is too much of an issue. He shouldn't be shooting contested jumpers anyway. As long as he's canning them, who cares? Nobody in the league can even come close to blocking it except for maybe McGee and Deandre has a shot of blocking it face-up, point-blank.

I also noted that he was shooting long 2's but I chalked that up to design of the drill. Later he was shooting 3's.

Sidenote: watching the Zeller video, the Burke video, the Gobert Video, and the McCollum video made me realize that these guys for the most part - all drill their jumpers, even Gobert. McCollum didn't look that great in his video actually. I'd suggest CCJ and Hands check it out and see what they think.

[Upper Decker]

Screw it. Zeller is now 3rd on my draft board behind Noel and Porter. I just don't see how he won't succeed in this league. At worst, he'll be a better-shooting Nick Collison - and that's a starter. At best, he's Chris Bosh - and that's an All Star.

I think he can raise the release point of his jumper without too much difficulty. I did the same thing myself about a year ago while coming off my ACL injury. I figured I wouldn't get as much elevation anymore so I could compensate by raising my release point. Within a month or two, I had my new form down and shot as well as always (a little better, actually). And that's just with a few hours of shooting around in the gym. Zeller is going to shoot more in a week than I did in two months.

What? Wait a minute Nate, so you changed your shot?! Now you have the audacity to say it's a little better than before? I refuse to be believe this is possible. I'm surprised your confidence isn't totally shot! I suppose the Wizards organization forced you to do this and it ruined your YMCA / church ball career.

[Ruzious]

Screw it. Zeller is now 3rd on my draft board behind Noel and Porter. I just don't see how he won't succeed in this league. At worst, he'll be a better-shooting Nick Collison - and that's a starter. At best, he's Chris Bosh - and that's an All Star.

I think he can raise the release point of his jumper without too much difficulty. I did the same thing myself about a year ago while coming off my ACL injury. I figured I wouldn't get as much elevation anymore so I could compensate by raising my release point. Within a month or two, I had my new form down and shot as well as always (a little better, actually). And that's just with a few hours of shooting around in the gym. Zeller is going to shoot more in a week than I did in two months.

Well Zeller's now 4th on my board so I understand why folks are high on him. Mines is more of a tepid endorsement however, a sign of why I think the draft is weak at the top of the lottery. Only reasons I have him over Len is because of Len's foot injury and over Olynyk b/c Olynyk doesn't have a clear position to defend. But if I watch some scouting video of getting bullied by Trevor Mbakwe or abused by Syracuse's frontline of future Adriatic League all-stars then he might slip again on my board.

I'm probably sounding like a Zeller apologist, but the only reasons Mbakwe isn't a top prospect are - terrible hands and age. He's a growed up athletic specimen who can make any big look bad with his defense and rebounding ability. And any scoring big is going to look bad against Syracuse' zone. It takes away your inside game.

[stevemcqueen1]

So, assuming (best case scenario) Bennett's measurements are 6'7" with shoes, 7'1" wingspan, and 8'9" reach, he's smaller than Porter in every measure. He's just got 40 lbs on Otto.

That 40 pounds obviously ends up making a pretty big difference. Bennett's a beast. Porter is a beanpole.

[stevemcqueen1]

Ruz, yes he isn't as athletic as Griffin is (I'm not sure anyone in the league is) but Bennett's still an athletic freak in his own right. Griffin measured in at a 35.5" vertical leap. We don't know what Bennett's is now, but canadianprospects.ca lists it at 34". This is probably from his high school days.

I think when you watch them play against each other (and Griffin dunks several times on Bennett), you'll see there's a big difference in their physical ability. The advantage Bennett has is that he can shoot from outside - so he has more versatility.

He's also a much better ball handler than Griffin and Griffin is a very good ball handler for a PF. Bennett has a better foundation of offensive skills than Blake did coming in, but Blake was a much better rebounder and a more aggressive player. Bennett is much more of a perimeter player and does not seem to be as comfortable playing inside. But I think it's very important that Bennett has a much better feel for the ball in his hands than Griffin. Much much better FT and jump shooter. Bennett can shoot off the dribble. Much better touch around the basket. Griffin is a fearsome dunker, but his touch on soft finishes is lousy. You've seen his scoring numbers dip every single year because He just doesn't have the scoring tools to consistently score for a good team that's playing meaningful possessions the whole game. The Clippers go to better options instead now.

They also have different body types. Blake is a superman-like tapered build. Broad shoulders, big bulky arms and chest. Makes him look taller and longer than he really is. He's got a very ideal body for a PF IMO.

Bennett is stockier. More of a columnar build with a wide body and bigger base. Makes him look shorter and stouter than he really is. He's got a Z-Bo style build. But I don't think he's appreciably less explosive than Griffin. He's shockingly explosive. Refer to the play in the California game where he picked up the ball on the ground under the basket and in less than a blink of an eye was at the rim trying to dunk it with two hands. He's freakishly explosive.

[nate33]

I didn't like Bennett's interview when he tried to explain why he sucks at D.

On criticism of his defense:
"It's something that I can improve on. I go hard playing defense, but it just, I don't know how things end up. But I feel like if I work on my quickness, I'll be alright."

I was hoping for something like: "Coach told me to avoid being too aggressive on D to avoid fouls." Or "I got moved to the center position because of injury to our starter, and it's a position I had little experience with. I started to figure things out but then had to deal with my shoulder injury."

What we got was no explanation at all:
Q: "Mr. Bennett, why does your D suck."
A: "I don't know, but I'll be alright in the pros."

[Dat2U]

I'm afraid Bennett might be as bad at defense as Antawn Jamison is/was.

[stevemcqueen1]

I didn't like Bennett's interview when he tried to explain why he sucks at D.

On criticism of his defense:
"It's something that I can improve on. I go hard playing defense, but it just, I don't know how things end up. But I feel like if I work on my quickness, I'll be alright."

I was hoping for something like: "Coach told me to avoid being too aggressive on D to avoid fouls." Or "I got moved to the center position because of injury to our starter, and it's a position I had little experience with. I started to figure things out but then had to deal with my shoulder injury."

What we got was no explanation at all:
Q: "Mr. Bennett, why does your D suck."
A: "I don't know, but I'll be alright in the pros."

I think a player's best bet is to never apologize for or try and rationalize away poor play in the past to the media. All he should say is something like, "I've got some things I'm going to work on, moving forward, I'll get it done."

[The Consiglieri]

I dunno if this clip of Zeller's workout w/ the Kings has already been posted, but here you go:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abPOpSJ0ovQ[/youtube]

You get a nice look at Zeller's shooting form. His release point is a little low for my tastes, but it looks fluid and accurate.

I liked this little comment from Pelton yesterday:

link:

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/ ... vin-pelton

John (Nashville)



Did Brandon in Phoenix look at the athletic numbers on Cody Zeller. At the combine he the fastest player over 6 feet

Kevin Pelton
(4:33 PM)



A lot has been written about how Zeller trained for the combine. But I think the real important takeaway here is that athleticism is a very nebulous thing. There are some areas (lateral quickness) in which Zeller is very athletic, and others (quick jumping) in which he is limited athletically.

[The Consiglieri]

I dunno if this clip of Zeller's workout w/ the Kings has already been posted, but here you go:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abPOpSJ0ovQ[/youtube]

You get a nice look at Zeller's shooting form. His release point is a little low for my tastes, but it looks fluid and accurate.

Thanks for posting, key, and I agree with your assessment -- release is a little low (and he also brings the ball down much lower than he needs to), but there's a clear competence there.

While my clear preference remains for Porter, if he's off the board I think the Wiz could do a lot worse than Zeller at #3. No, he's not going to be a dominant defensive center, but I have a hard team seeing how he doesn't help a team offensively. It would be a low risk, low reward proposition.

If he were available in some sort of good trade down scenario, I'd consider it, especially if Porter is off the board.

I think he's a mistake waiting to happen for anyone willing to take him top 6. Not going to be special, or great, or even very good, more likely to be league average or below average rather than even above average. He's a great value post top 10 to me, and probably fair value around 7-9, earlier than that is crazy to me.

[dobrojim]

Thanks for posting, key, and I agree with your assessment -- release is a little low (and he also brings the ball down much lower than he needs to), but there's a clear competence there.

While my clear preference remains for Porter, if he's off the board I think the Wiz could do a lot worse than Zeller at #3. No, he's not going to be a dominant defensive center, but I have a hard team seeing how he doesn't help a team offensively. It would be a low risk, low reward proposition.

If he were available in some sort of good trade down scenario, I'd consider it, especially if Porter is off the board.

Every time Zeller's name comes up, I keep trying to think of why he shouldn't go in the top 3 or 4, and I'm having trouble coming up with a good answer. He is a freak athlete. He was a very productive player in college. He is a winner. He is an extremely hard worker. He is skilled in the post and out on the perimeter. He plays a position of need.

Are we overthinking this? Why not just take him and be happy?

Agree with all of you (key, N33, Fish). We could be over-thinking this. It's hard
to poke holes in the pro-Zeller arguments. If OP is gone, I'm not sure if he isn't
my next choice. Then there is always Len as well. And Dipo who could be the
best player in this draft ie the 2013 version of MJ being 3rd overall not that I
think Dipo best case will be close to MJ. Maybe DWade in the team who drafts
him wildest fantasy.

[stevemcqueen1]

I like Dipo but I still don't quite know what to make of him. How good a shooter is he really? A lot of his value is going to come down to how good and reliable his shooting is. If he's a streak shooter, then he's going to struggle to be a consistently impactful offensive player. But if he really is a knockdown shooter, then he can be a big time two way player.

If we were making the pick in a vacuum, I'd be on board for Dipo. But we've got to build a team, and even though I like both Dipo and McLemore, I just don't see them as the best use of our resources. I think we really need to pair some sort of inside player with Wall and Beal to build an ideal team and I think this pick is our best chance to do that. We need some sort of stud offensive or defensive player at the PF or C position. Failing that, then it makes more sense to get the SF with excellent two way potential in Porter so that we at least get a starter with the pick.

[Severn Hoos]

Screw it. Zeller is now 3rd on my draft board behind Noel and Porter. I just don't see how he won't succeed in this league. At worst, he'll be a better-shooting Nick Collison - and that's a starter. At best, he's Chris Bosh - and that's an All Star.

nate - I've been thinking pretty much the same thing for the past few weeks, and that video kind of confirmed it for me. It reminded me of the run up to the 1995 Draft. back then, there was no draftexpress or realgm, so we got most of our info from the daily Washington Post article. And they described Rasheed Wallace's workout - said he was "floating around the perimeter, making 3-pointers." Now, in the mid-90s days of Shaq, David Robinson, Larry Johnson - big men just didn't shoot 3's. The only one I can really remember was Sam Perkins, and I always assumed that was because he was kind of old and broken-down and couldn't bang in the paint any more.

In short, the "scouting report" of him shooting 3s was actually more of a backhanded compliment at best or veiled criticism of Rasheed's game. And he turned out all right, even with all of that fancy long-range shootin'.

Fast forward to today. Lots of bigs shoot 3s - in fact, it seems to almost be a necessity on any team. And if you have a penetrating PG and slashing SG, it makes a lot of sense to have a big (PF or C) who can shoot from 3 to open up those lanes. That's why I'm so high on Ilyasova - though not enough to give up the 3rd pick for him.

I really couldn't care less about Cody if he's going to be a C, or if he hits long 2s effectively. But if he becomes a 3-point threat at the PF position? Yep, very interested. As of now, I'd rather have him than anyone else other than Porter and Noel - and it'd be close on Oladipo.

So here's what I'd do on draft day: If Noel or Porter (in that order) are on the board, take them. If not, take Oladipo. Then open up the bidding. Clearly, Phoenix and Minnesota would be interested, and other teams might as well. Maybe even Milwaukee sweetens their deal with something in addition to Ilyasova & 15 (which should be the absolute minimum in that deal). If the mocks are to be believed, pretty much anyone from PHX (#5) to Philly (#11) should/might have Zeller on the board to offer as the basis of a trade, so there is at least a chance of a bidding war.

And the best part is - if you lose that game of chicken and no one offers enough value - you still end up with Oladipo. Not a bad consolation prize. Maybe a touch too cute if I really wanted Zeller all along (and would be fine if they took him at #3), but at least you're not stuck with a guy you don't really want.

But in the end, I think it will just be Porter and we'll all be happy. Now, if you could somehow buy that #12 or #13 pick and leverage that up a few spots to get Porter AND Zeller....

[fishercob]

Thanks for posting, key, and I agree with your assessment -- release is a little low (and he also brings the ball down much lower than he needs to), but there's a clear competence there.

While my clear preference remains for Porter, if he's off the board I think the Wiz could do a lot worse than Zeller at #3. No, he's not going to be a dominant defensive center, but I have a hard team seeing how he doesn't help a team offensively. It would be a low risk, low reward proposition.

If he were available in some sort of good trade down scenario, I'd consider it, especially if Porter is off the board.

Every time Zeller's name comes up, I keep trying to think of why he shouldn't go in the top 3 or 4, and I'm having trouble coming up with a good answer. He is a freak athlete. He was a very productive player in college. He is a winner. He is an extremely hard worker. He is skilled in the post and out on the perimeter. He plays a position of need.

Are we overthinking this? Why not just take him and be happy?

Agree with all of you (key, N33, Fish). We could be over-thinking this. It's hard
to poke holes in the pro-Zeller arguments. If OP is gone, I'm not sure if he isn't
my next choice. Then there is always Len as well. And Dipo who could be the
best player in this draft ie the 2013 version of MJ being 3rd overall not that I
think Dipo best case will be close to MJ. Maybe DWade in the team who drafts
him wildest fantasy.

Jimmy, the data seems to love Zeller and that's a big bit of what has me coming around on him. At the same time, the data is lukewarm on Len though I want to love him because of what I see and what I can imagine based on upon it. I think there are strong arguments for either guy; I hope Porter is on the board so the Wizards don't have to make that call.

[Ruzious]

But in the end, I think it will just be Porter and we'll all be happy. Now, if you could somehow buy that #12 or #13 pick and leverage that up a few spots to get Porter AND Zeller....

That would be awesome, and I might even be in favor of keeping EG as GM if he could pull that off. A master manipulator might be able to pull it off, imo.

[dobrojim]

such a crazy draft to predict compared to any year I can remember.

easy to build cases for multiple players, easy to knock them down.

[fishercob]

I dunno if this clip of Zeller's workout w/ the Kings has already been posted, but here you go:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abPOpSJ0ovQ[/youtube]

You get a nice look at Zeller's shooting form. His release point is a little low for my tastes, but it looks fluid and accurate.

I liked this little comment from Pelton yesterday:

link:

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/ ... vin-pelton

John (Nashville)



Did Brandon in Phoenix look at the athletic numbers on Cody Zeller. At the combine he the fastest player over 6 feet

Kevin Pelton
(4:33 PM)



A lot has been written about how Zeller trained for the combine. But I think the real important takeaway here is that athleticism is a very nebulous thing. There are some areas (lateral quickness) in which Zeller is very athletic, and others (quick jumping) in which he is limited athletically.

Yes.

I agree that we can learn some stuff from the measurements and testing, but there's plenty we can't learn. Bennett and Zeller may be able to jump very high, but anyone who thinks that they are in the same category as Blake Griffin athletically -- within the context of a basketball game -- is a complete fool.

Zeller, for instance, may be a very fast runner and high jumper. But I'd guess it takes him well longer to gather himself and get off the ground than a freak like Griffin. The athletic testing doesn't measure this stuff.

Antawn Jamison could never jump over a phonebook, but he was very effective on both the offensive and defensive glass because he was so quick off his feet. One of my favorite ridiculous Jay Bilas terms is "second jump-ability" and there were few better than Jamison in his prime.

So while Zeller may be very athletic, he doesn't or wont' play an athletic game. That's not a knock; I think he's plenty skilled to be effective playing how he plays.