Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[stevemcqueen1]

I'd rather use the Spurs as my model organization to emulate than make decisions based on the failings of the Clippers and Bobcats.

RIF

Where did i say anything about using any team as a model to emulate? We were talking about fan expections of draft picks.

There were a bunch of people on here that were happy with the Singleton pick at the time. Now. not so much.

The Spurs are the exception to the rule. Most GMs don't do a good job evaluating draft talent, something Dat has pointed out time and again.

The Spurs aren't the exception to the rule. They are the model of success. And they are not the only team that values draft picks, spends them well, and uses the draft as the primary tool for building a successful team. OKC, Indy, and Chicago are built through the draft. Golden State was too. Atlanta and Orlando were built through the draft when they were good. As was Portland. Portland picked the ROTY with the 6th pick last year.

Very few teams are like Miami or Boston that can build a sustainable winner through FA or trades. And even though Boston traded for two All Stars, Rondo, Pierce, and Bradley are all great draft picks they made.

The teams that cap themselves off in mediocrity are the ones that squander their draft picks. Brooklyn traded the 6th pick which ended up being Lillard to Portland for Gerald Wallace. The year before the Clippers traded the pick that became Kyrie Irving to Cleveland for Mo Williams and Jamario Moon because they hated that draft. These are moronic trades that came from the Clippers and Nets stupidly devaluing their picks. Now LA might lose Chris Paul to FA when they could have had years of Kyrie Irving on a rookie deal paired with Blake Griffin and Brooklyn is totally capped out with a roster that isn't nearly good enough to contend.

Those trades were absolute disasters for Brooklyn and LA. They're going to go down as two of the worst trades in NBA history. That's what can happen when you squander high draft picks.

You're arguing this point presumably because you want to make it seem like #3 for Ersan and crap is a good deal? When you were arguing for trading #3 for a rubbish return like Ersan Ilyasova, you were arguing for squandering a high draft pick. Plain and simple. Worse than what Brooklyn and LA did, because we KNOW we've got a high draft pick where they didn't. It'd be Miller/Foye all over again except we'd be pissing away an even higher pick.

There can be no better way to ensure John Wall never wins a championship here than blowing draft picks in crappy trades, especially this draft pick. We're better off taking our chances in the draft.

I've got to think this is pretty dang obvious to most of the fan base.

[The Consiglieri]

Folks talk about league average as if that's an insult. I think Zeller will be better than that, but when I did draft research on 4-year production by draft slot, the third pick (at least according to PER) on average wasn't much better than average.

No, I talk about it as something that is not something for us to aspire for, but rather to settle for, if what we aspire for doesn't come to fruition. You shouldn't be aiming from the get go for mediocrity. If you are, why are you even competing? What's the point of having a team in the first place? I always assumed it was building a champion, and aiming low is something that never gets you there.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

sfam, if u want to swing for the fences for "upside" gold, then the pick should be Len not Bennett.

[Nivek]

Folks talk about league average as if that's an insult. I think Zeller will be better than that, but when I did draft research on 4-year production by draft slot, the third pick (at least according to PER) on average wasn't much better than average.

No, I talk about it as something that is not something for us to aspire for, but rather to settle for, if what we aspire for doesn't come to fruition. You shouldn't be aiming from the get go for mediocrity. If you are, why are you even competing? What's the point of having a team in the first place? I always assumed it was building a champion, and aiming low is something that never gets you there.

I agree with you on what the goal is -- or should be, at least. I don't think the Wiz front office has that goal. I think they view it as unrealistic unless they get lucky and a superstar falls in their lap. Metaphorical lap, of course.

I don't agree with the notion that Zeller is going to max out at average, though. Even in this year's draft there are a number of players who could make really terrific pros if they put in the requisite work. I view Zeller as one of those guys. I think his floor is higher than some of the others because he's already demonstrated a good work ethic.

[The Consiglieri]

Folks talk about league average as if that's an insult. I think Zeller will be better than that, but when I did draft research on 4-year production by draft slot, the third pick (at least according to PER) on average wasn't much better than average.

I am assuming the "folks" you were talking about here were fans. If you were talking about something else then by all means please correct me.

And fans routinely overrate draft picks, both before and immediately after they are made.

I don't see what the issue is with this. Lottery draft picks are more often then not like lottery tickets, except where the odds are 1-3, 1-5, 1-10 of you winning gazillions, instead of 1 in 1 billion odds or whatever.

Lottery picks, and draft picks in general are short term contracts on potentially high yield, or low yield investments (bonds I suppose you could say), that if even moderately successful, are more valuable than any kind of signings. I don't think they're undervalued at all. Think about the teams that value them the most, teams like the Spurs that never sell them, think about in other sports and its the same (Patriots, Steelers, lately the Niners, always had their full allotment and often more). It seems to me that the only teams usually associated with stupid front offices are precisely the teams that undervalue them, the clippers throwing a #1 overall pick to Cleveland, unprotected, just to get rid of 15 more months of putting up with Baron Davis' captain crunch habits, us tossing aside a fifth overall pick, for a year of two bench fodder scrubs in Foye, and Miller. The team that actually know what they're doing, OKC, the Spurs, etc harvest high yields of them.

Could we as people overrate them, maybe so, if we think any pick could get us LeBron, etc, but at the same time, so what? Our F.O. are a merry band of idiots that have consistently bungled the value of our draft picks without fail nearly every year since I was born 38 years ago. It's hard to find years where they didn't make hideous mistakes, or underwhelming picks, 1992 was surprising to some extent, 1994 was value, 1995 was value that they immediately flushed, 1999 was huge value that they immediately flushed, twice in the mid aughts they got some value with McGee and Young, they got Wall, which required simply catatonic brain functioning to get right, and last year they got Beal. Other than that, none of the picks at least since I've been in middle school have been used even remotely intelligently. That's basically underwhelming, or failing entirely nearly 80% of the time, and that's while usually owning a pic with a solid slot.

I think some of us undervalue picks, not overvalue them, because we're so used to our team not only failing, but failing spectacularly, and as such, many among us would just be satisfied with adequate. I'm not.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Why is Victor Oladipo not a top 3 pick?
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk4XNbRYhKA[/youtube]

The same reason Steph Curry went #7 after Haseem Thabeet went #2 and Jonny Flynn went #6.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Lots of good discussion of Zeller over these past few pages as people seem to be more comfortable with his ability to step out on the perimeter. Here's my subsequent question:

What separates him from Olynyk?

We have shied away from Olynyk because he's not a credible defensive anchor. Well, he actually but up better defensive rebounding numbers than Zeller did. Olynyk is just 18 months older, so this isn't a boys v. men situation, is it? Olynyk might be as pure a shooter from distance AND he's got a more refined ability to ISO -- challenge his jumper and he'll take one dribble, create space with a spin move and knock down a Dirk-around jumper. Can Zeller do this?

My point isn't that we should draft Olynyk third. But if we find ourselves in the late lotto someone, why pay a premium for Zeller over KO?

EDIT:

Okay, yeah. Zeller's the better prospect. So much more athletic and explosive (and Olynyk took a year off to build what athleticism he has). And Zeller may have some "hidden value" since he shot so little from the perimeter in college.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wvb2SNJ9T4w[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UYG1Ksrnm4[/youtube]

I really wanted Cody Zeller last season, less than MKG but more than Beal had Cody declared.

Yet, this season I like Olynyk more than Cody.

[nuposse04]

Noel up to 218 pounds, great news, he keeps giving the Cavs a reason not to draft him.

Thats close to his playing weight at Kentucky isn't it? Wasn't he 6 lbs less a month ago? Assuming he adds 12 more he wouldn't be at a terrible position at 230 lbs in a few months.

[fishercob]

Folks talk about league average as if that's an insult. I think Zeller will be better than that, but when I did draft research on 4-year production by draft slot, the third pick (at least according to PER) on average wasn't much better than average.

No, I talk about it as something that is not something for us to aspire for, but rather to settle for, if what we aspire for doesn't come to fruition. You shouldn't be aiming from the get go for mediocrity. If you are, why are you even competing? What's the point of having a team in the first place? I always assumed it was building a champion, and aiming low is something that never gets you there.

I agree with you on what the goal is -- or should be, at least. I don't think the Wiz front office has that goal. I think they view it as unrealistic unless they get lucky and a superstar falls in their lap. Metaphorical lap, of course.

Thank goodness for the Indiana Pacers -- they've never drafted high and they don't have any market advantages, and they almost won an NBA title. Their success has shamed those with that loser mentality who pointed to the Spurs and said "they lucked into Duncan" as a way to explain what they've built. Cleveland didn't fail because they were a small market. They failed because after lucking into Lebron, they drafted Luke Jackson, Shannon Brown and JJ Hickson with their subsequent first round picks and they made a series of bad trades and signings in an effort to build a team. There were some good moves too, but not enough.

So those who think winning is too hard or required too much luck should get out of the game.

[hands11]

Why is Victor Oladipo not a top 3 pick?
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk4XNbRYhKA[/youtube]

Got a lot a Wade in him doesn't he.

I think once you remove Len and Noel from that group - center project types, you narrow it down to who are the real baller who can come in with clear skills in hand and top pick leadership focus worthy of a top 5 pick

This class really narrows down to just a few players once you get ride of the noise.

----- Can't miss players
Burke - He is one of these players. Complete mentally and skills. He could early go top 3 in this draft. He is talented. He is a leader and he is a winner.

VO - You know he has the D and the mind. He has all the physical stuff to make him legit. I think the ball handing skills are there and he is improve them. GYM RAT. He is going to get better and better. He is a can't miss pick because you know he doesn't have to grow mentally and he has the D and at a min wide open shooting skills already. And he can get up and dunk. All he needs is to show improved handles and he will be a impact player.

Zeller - I think he is going to be productive right away. His game is going to look a lot different in the NBA because he will be a PF who shoot from outside and drives from mid range more then a back to the basket player. Just a gritty player. Very coachable. Good skills.

Can't miss that need something that is missing.

McClemore - He is just a notch below these two. Great physical stuff and a pure shooter. But I question if he has the mind that Burke and VO have. I little more of a project because he really needs to up his ball handing skills. He will be a nice player but I question if he will ever have heart and killer instincts of the first two.

So if I were in charge of the #3 pick for the Wizards, that is my list short of Len and Noel.

Since I think Len and Noel are going to be more the project types and both have injury issues, I think I pass on drafting a center with the top pick. What I need to help the wizards there I can pick up later in the draft. A Jackie Carmichael or Colton Iverson is all they really need for now.

I would focus in on VO, Burke, Zeller and McLemore. If it came down to those 4, who would I take and who could I get in a trade down and still get them? Of the 4, I think VO and Zeller might be my main targets. Some how Len keeps creeping in my mind a little though.

Otto - A nice safe pick. He is a a solid all around basketball player. Solid defender who play the angles. I think he would be a great pick for a team that really needs the influence that his personality and character bring. Thats what moves him up in this draft. But those things aren't so important to the Wizards like they had been in the past. Wall, Beal, Nene, Okafor, Webster have solidified that aspect of the team. Once you remove that part of what Otto brings, he isn't as valuable to a team if they already have that stuff so he is really only worth being a 10-12 pick to a playoff team. He would be best if sent to a team like Orlando, Charlotte, PHX, etc. Team that need an identity.

End result, I would focus on VO, Zeller, Len, Burke, McLemore. Now who would I pick of those and why ?

Hard to say I would be upset with any of them. Specially if I would get them in a trade down.

Tough decision this year. But anyone I pick, I am picking as a back up with no long term plans of keeping them. Specially if it was Burke or McLemore. For keepers, it would be from Zeller and Len with VO a bubble keeper depending on Beals development and growth.

With that said, I would have to narrow it down to Zeller, VO and Len.

[sfam]

We absolutely should be going for gold with this pick. Playing it safe pretty much equals opportunity lost. We may never the the next "right piece to add" - we can get that key building block now.

And again, if EG thinks Porter is the guy who will be that impact player, I'm fine with the pick. If he drafts Porter for the reasons you state, he is in essence looking for a comfortable home in the middle of the playoffs, not a contender.

Reading this I keep thinking about the movie Raging Bull "I coulda been a contenda".

I agree with you're general premise. I just doubt that Bennett is the "gold" of this draft. IMO Porter does everything Bennett does, but also excels defensively, and has great size for his position rather than being undersized. Bennett's value is as a stretch 4 and his outside shooting. IMO we can get Porter at 3 as our starting SF and building block, and at 38 Erik Murphy the stretch 4 off the bench.

We'd have the foundation of an excellent perimeter and defense, with plenty of shooters to spread the floor (Beal, Porter, Webster, Murphy, Price, Ariza). Although I see Ariza gone after this season, or moved before for another player.

While I believe Bennett is the right pick, I don't fancy myself knowledgeable enough to know. I hope the scouts and EG are doing a far more thorough job than people here. If Porter is the "Gold" choice, again, I'm fine wiht that. I wanna be rooting for a contenda!

[payitforward]

...

I guess part of that is how we view the Wall and Beal level of talent. Personally, I think both are going to be AS elite level players. I'm talking true studs. And as we have seen, even when teams have a big three, all three are not able to perform at that level without someone taking a back set. That is if all three are truly that elite level of player. And keep in mind, following that model moving forward is going to be tougher. More team are going to need to do it with two great players and depth. Or a big 2 1/2 with depth. Which is what I think the Wizards already have.

So its not that I don't think they need more quality players, I do. Someone at Nene level when healthy is a perfect compliment. Actually, Nene with a better outside shot would be perfect. Then you need good quality scoring and defense like we have in Webster, Trevor A and Okafor. Again, we already have that. They were one of the best 3 ball shooting teams in the league at one point. And a top defensive team.

Personally, I think the Wizards already have something really solid in Wall, Beal, Webster, Nene, Okafor and Travor A and I don't want to see them mess that up while they are trying to add a player at #3 that is not worth that pick or the money.

The Wizards main issues were (1) health - Wall, Beal and Nene, and (2) Wall and Beal turning the corner. Well Wall got healthy and both Wall and Beal turned the corner. So the big question is Nene. If he returns to the beast mode he was in when we got him, the Wizards are already set up to be a really good team.

So in a lot of ways, I don't really like that they have the 3rd pick in this draft class.

This draft class has allowed for a lot of debate because it is flat and deep and having the #3 has created excitment. But having the 3rd pick has created some what of an illusion because it makes it look like we could get another elite player like Wall and Beal. And maybe you can, but it doesn't look very likely. The odds are lower of that happening at #3 this year. I think people are overvaluing these top picks because they are the top picks this year. But they aren't really top pick quality.

A big part of the problem is, the Wizards shouldn't have the 3rd pick this year. They are a much more talented team then that. It wouldn't be a big an issue if this was a really talented class. Like when SA got Duncan when they were already really good, but that isn't the case this year. In this draft, all the picks at 1-3 are a reach.

That's how I see it. The Wizards already have 2.5 studs and a good top 7. I don't see anyone in the top 10 that is better then what they have in their starters.

Except one thing is clear, they need a future center and they need to clear things up at PF. So if you think Len or Noel are legit future NBA starting centers, then that is the best way maximize that pick. That works for fit now and in the future.

If not, I would rather trade back and consolidate. There is quality depth in this class and we need depth more then we need new starters. I just don't want to use a #3 to draft it and I don't want then to draft a player that creates more clutter.

So with the #3, take Len or Noel if you think either is a legit future center. OR draft Burke, VO or McLemore with the pick knowing you will trade them after a year or so. There is no clutter at those positions. If you are going to overdraft, do it there. Nothing wrong with having sick depth at PG and SG.

Or, trade back and get ride of Singleton and Ves. If you do that, you have room to draft someone like Zeller

This draft situation is a lot more complicated then it was for the Wizards last year because they actually already have a 7 good players and the top of the class is not the same quality that you would usually get up there. Last year was so much easier. They clearly needed a SG and Beal was a sure a pick as you can get.

So my list of who I think they should take using the pick or in a trade back are.

Len and Noel - both concern me some. Len is the safer choice, Noel has more star power.
Burke, McLemore, VO, and Zeller

With those as options, I wouldn't draft Bennett or Otto. I see Otto as a Trevor A replacement and Trevor A is not worthy of the #3 pick in a draft.

And if I could get CJM at around #15, I would definitely do that.

Back when we had the #8, Nate really wanted use to add Burke. I said add CJM. If I had to choose between the two I would feel very comfortable with them taking Burke. Even at #3 Now if McLemore could improve his ball handing, he could be a real nice add. Specially give how poor the team played whenever Beal went down.

Didn't you say -- yesterday! -- that at this point there was no reason to write more than a 1-or-2-sentence post about this draft?

That said, you make some -- to me -- odd points. I've highlighted some of them above.

1. To start with you seem to think the Wizards are a "good" team (lets just define that as "above average" -- can't get more generous than that can you?). We went .500 in the period when you seem to think we'd "turned a corner." We're not a good team. We are -- with all our personnel -- an average team. That's what you want to consolidate?

2. Webster is not a Wizard. Webster is an unrestricted free agent. Please hear this clearly. Martell Webster is not part of the Washington Wizards squad. He's not on the team. Will we sign him? Sure, if we give him a deal as good as anyone else offers (ok maybe just almost as good), he might well be on the team. But that might not happen.

3. You keep including Okafor and Ariza in our "core." Assuming Trevor picks up his option (perhaps he's already done so), we'll have him this year. At that point he will be an unrestricted free agent. You can't project the future of the team w/ him as a key piece, because you don't know if he'll be around.

4. Okafor, who as a Wizard had his best season in several years, is signed for the coming year. At the end of the year, he is an unrestricted free agent. We have no option, no nothing. As with Ariza, you can't project based on him.

5. We have three good players -- three not seven -- that we know we'll have for 2014-15:

a. Wall (if he demonstrates in a full season that he really has made the jump he certainly seemed to have made),

b. Beal (I have less doubt about his future than Wall's), and

c. Nene, who has had repeated injury problems the last few years. You can deny that all you want, but... why would you? Maybe he'll be able to average 30+ minutes in 60+ games, but if so it'll be the first time in many years. Nene has played more than 2500 minutes in only 2 seasons since his 2d year! The last time was 4 years ago.

Anyone who thinks the Wizards are in some kind "stand pat" or "consolidate" place is dreaming.

[sfam]

sfam, if u want to swing for the fences for "upside" gold, then the pick should be Len not Bennett.

That's a reasonable position. Although Len's ankles scare me away, and personally, I think Bennett looks far more elite than Len. I see Len tapping out as a solid contributor, but don't really see all star potential in his game. I of course could be wrong.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think the top pick should be Porter, Olynyk, Len or Zeller in that order. A trade down for Olynyk is what I like best.

The Leonard/Faried players are going to be Olynyk, Franklin, Wolters, DJ Stephens, and Zeke Marshall. Erick Green and Isaiah Canaan could have some Arenas and Fisher NBA moments. Karasev, Caldwell-Pope, and Crabbe seem like winners. Beware of Shabazz Muhammed. Burke is overrated. Noel is a risky injury pick.

For what the Wizards need, Olynyk and Wolters provide what is lacking seamlessly. If the Wizards wish to trade Seraphin, Carmichael, Mbekwe and Iverson get dirty on the boards and they are not shot jackers like Kevin Seraphin can be. They throw their bodies into opponents and make them pay a physical toll to keep them off the boards or from scoring. Seraphin just got his shots last season, not much else.

[hands11]

Thanks for posting, key, and I agree with your assessment -- release is a little low (and he also brings the ball down much lower than he needs to), but there's a clear competence there.

While my clear preference remains for Porter, if he's off the board I think the Wiz could do a lot worse than Zeller at #3. No, he's not going to be a dominant defensive center, but I have a hard team seeing how he doesn't help a team offensively. It would be a low risk, low reward proposition.

If he were available in some sort of good trade down scenario, I'd consider it, especially if Porter is off the board.

Every time Zeller's name comes up, I keep trying to think of why he shouldn't go in the top 3 or 4, and I'm having trouble coming up with a good answer. He is a freak athlete. He was a very productive player in college. He is a winner. He is an extremely hard worker. He is skilled in the post and out on the perimeter. He plays a position of need.

Are we overthinking this? Why not just take him and be happy?

I won't be unhappy because he will score a lot.

I prefer the points in the paint and midrange game of Olynyk to Zeller's athleticism. KO scores through contact and he can score at the NBA three point line. Seems to me Zellet is a transition scorer and a pure PF. I think Olynyk would fit a need better because he should score well in half court.

Instead of Zeller at three I would explore a draft night trade down for a value pick at #9,12, or 15. McCollum. Len and Adams would also be considerations in a trade down. I don't believe I am over thinking Zeller. He's probably solid at three but I'd go another way.

Not sure why you say Zeller doesn't score through contact. If there is one thing he did a ton in college was close out the space between him and his defender and get fouled. That is a big part of his approach to the game and one of the reason I don't think we saw that he could actually jump. He is the Anti Kevin S. Kevin looks for space to get a clean shoot off. Zeller looked to close space and get fouled.

It one of the reasons I think his game looked so ugly. He was always getting clobbered. But he was also sitting at the foul line a ton. Now if he already has that and he can hit from outside, I think its a safe bet to say he will be a productive NBA player right away. So that what really separates him from KO. Zeller does all those things and he is athletic.

[sfam]

1. To start with you seem to think the Wizards are a "good" team (lets just define that as "above average" -- can't get more generous than that can you?). We went .500 in the period when you seem to think we'd "turned a corner." We're not a good team. We are -- with all our personnel -- an average team. That's what you want to consolidate?

+1 - Bingo!
We aren't close to "all that". This is our last chance at the top of the draft. We absolutely need take advantage of it to find another impact player to build around.

Anyone who thinks the Wizards are in some kind "stand pat" or "consolidate" place is dreaming.

Careful, you'll be accused of engaging in personal attacks (NOT)

[hands11]

Names not talked up enough?

Reggie Bullock, Mike Muscala, Erick Green, Isaiah Canaan, Phil Pressey, Nate Wolters, Trevor Mbekwe, DJ Stephens, Zeke Marshall, Juvonte Reddic, Jack Cooley, Lorenzo Brown, Brandon Paul, Michael Snaer, Khalid Wyatt, Jackie Carmichael, CJ Leslie (hunch says Leslie and Brown are on Wizards draft radar), Kadjii, Hill

I think there could be another Arenas, Millsap, Boozer in round two. Just like we're watching # 46 Danny Green this playoffs, in 4 or 5 years I foresee at least three or four of these players on rosters.

Of course that is true CCJ

There are a lot of names there. Most will be back ups. Some will eventually earn a starting role.

Its a lot easier for that to be the projection for a list that big then it is to pick from these top picks who will cost more and have a ton more pressure on them.

Those kind of players fit well on experience teams that have a good roster. They come in, focus on a limited role they can do well, get tones of good stuff from winning players, then some grow into legit starters. If they land on good teams, it can be an ideal situation for them. If they land on bad teams, not so much so.

[payitforward]

Sometimes the safe play is the best play. We were here before in 2011. Ves was the swing for the fences pick. The safe play would be been a trade down and pick Nikola or trade up for Kanter.

I can't believe you wrote this. The "safe play" would have been to draft well.

Why trade down when we could have made the obvious picks of Kawhi Leonard and Kenneth Faried.

I suppose trading down might have gotten us another pick. But we could have had Chandler Parsons in Round 2, or if you think that's asking too much how about Jon Leuer, Darius Morris, Josh Harrelson, LaVoy Allen, DeAndre Liggins, E'Twaun Moore, or Isaiah Thomas? All those guys have shown that they can play in this league.

Didn't want a 3d rookie? How about doing what the SA Spurs did and taking Davis Bertans (that's what the San Antonio Spurs did -- you think they draft well in round 2??).

There is always and only one "safe play" in the draft, and that is to pick the best player. Our problem is that we have a 28-win-a-year-for-a-decade GM who is incapable of doing that in any but the most obvious case.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Every time Zeller's name comes up, I keep trying to think of why he shouldn't go in the top 3 or 4, and I'm having trouble coming up with a good answer. He is a freak athlete. He was a very productive player in college. He is a winner. He is an extremely hard worker. He is skilled in the post and out on the perimeter. He plays a position of need.

Are we overthinking this? Why not just take him and be happy?

I won't be unhappy because he will score a lot.

I prefer the points in the paint and midrange game of Olynyk to Zeller's athleticism. KO scores through contact and he can score at the NBA three point line. Seems to me Zellet is a transition scorer and a pure PF. I think Olynyk would fit a need better because he should score well in half court.

Instead of Zeller at three I would explore a draft night trade down for a value pick at #9,12, or 15. McCollum. Len and Adams would also be considerations in a trade down. I don't believe I am over thinking Zeller. He's probably solid at three but I'd go another way.

Not sure why you say Zeller doesn't score through contact. If there is one thing he did a ton in college was close out the space between him and his defender and get fouled. That is a big part of his approach to the game and one of the reason I don't think we saw that he could actually jump. He is the Anti Kevin S. Kevin looks for space to get a clean shoot off. Zeller looked to close space and get fouled.

It one of the reasons I think his game looked so ugly. He was always getting clobbered. But he was also sitting at the foul line a ton. Now if he already has that and he can hit from outside, I think its a safe bet to say he will be a productive NBA player right away. So that what really separates him from KO. Zeller does all those things and he is athletic.

Olynyk is leagues craftier and will be instantly successful in the NBA also. KO will be a go to scorer. Zeller will not, but he will score a lot in transition.

I love the proficiency of KO's lean-in scoring. He understand leverage and how to get a defender off balance with footwork and feints. KO will get separation to score efficiently inside and out. He's an aggressive offensive player like a Luis Scola.

[dobrojim]

Yeah, I agree with dat, despite my last post. That was just to communicate that there are worse things than getting an average player at #3. But draft picks are extremely valuable when used well. Denver, for example, has at least a couple top 5 worthy picks starting for them who they selected in the 20s (Faried and Lawson). The Spurs consistently draft well, which I think is testament to their talent evaluation process moreso than their player development.

I think it's more accurate to say that many prospects get overrated (and underrated). More get overrated than under, I think.

Lawson was taken in the teens, lower than he should have been....I liked him a lot in that draft,
but not in the 20s (if barely...ok, I'm nitpicking).