Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[Floater]

I sense Noel could drop a little bit in this draft. Maybe to 4 or 5.

[payitforward]

Also, as for how good they were, its all a matter of what you focus on. When Wall, Beal and Nene all started, they were very good. When all three were simple healthy enough to play, they were good. And along the way, they took down just about every playoff team. They beat the best of the best and the tier under that.

Sigh... to a true fan, the facts can always be canted to make his team better than it is. I did say those were our three good players, didn't I?

...I expect two full on beast in those two (i.e. Wall and Beal) next year. Top 5 at their positions. Thats a ton right there along. You add Nene and Okafor to that group and sorry, thats a solid core in anyones book. Now add Trevor A, he isn't opting out. And Webster is loves the team and wants to be here. Sorry, but that is a legit core to a team.

No kidding! Top 5 in the league at the 1 and 2, Nene playing starter minutes for most of a season at a high level. Okaforiza in house for the next 3+ years and having seasons like they did last year. Etc. etc. etc. Yep, that's a good team. And a solid core.

Thing is, at 20 years old, 2d year in the league, Beal isn't going to be one of the top 5 shooting guards in the game. That's just a silly idea.

And Wall wasn't one of the top 5 point guards in the game even at the level he played the last 2 months of the season. I too hope he'll improve, but I'll be happy if and when he's one of the dozen top 1s in the league, and we are still waiting for that.

As to Nene, over his entire career he has rarely played starter minutes. He's averaged slightly over 1500 minutes a season. If you leave out the two years he played the least, and the 2 years he played the most, his average for the remaining years is 1830 minutes a year. Given that every year he is older, that's the most you should count on.

And you want to count two expiring salaries and an unrestricted FA -- who is facing his *one chance* to get the best contract he'll ever get in this league -- as part of our "core." No. Tho I agree it's likely Webster will stay here.

But... how good is he, Hands? 49 SFs played 25+ minutes a game last year. Martell had the 27th best WS40 and the 34th best PER in that group of 49.

I think Ves can still redeem himself....

You thought he'd be our "franchise player" man!

As for how good they are when healthy, if you don't see it you don't see it.

Again, you projected Jan Vesely as our franchise player. That's what you saw.

We have 3 good players, one of whom looks to be at the end of his heavy-minute years. The other two we judge quite optimistically based on our ideas of their future. That's our "core" -- assets we have for the coming years.

That's not "a good team."

[pancakes3]

Next year's crop of blue chip forwards are all bigger, faster, longer, younger, more skilled, and more explosive than Bennett.

[jivelikenice]

PIF, you don't think Wall was a top 5 PG in the league over the last two months of the season? Which pgs were playing better?

[Upper Decker]

Just listened to bill simmons podcast with Ryan Rossellini who said he heard wiz would NOT take Noel if he's there at 3 b/c too many red flags. Noel is scaring teams with who he is associating with, that he has no agent, and doesn't return calls, etc

you have link to this?

Wow, that is amazing stuff about Noel. Sounds like he's hanging out with the same folks Z-Bo hung out with in Portland. Russillo is killing him. He's off my list. He'll fall on draft day.

My preference:
1. Porter
2-4. Bennett, Len, Zeller any order
5. Olopdio

[pancakes3]

PIF, you don't think Wall was a top 5 PG in the league over the last two months of the season? Which pgs were playing better?

Arguably?

Paul
Westbrook
Parker
irving
Curry

and next season Rose and Rondo will be back in action. It'll be a tough road for Wall to get into the top 5.

[TheKingOfVa360]

KingofVA- Agree on everything except the Webster leaving part. Its a two man race in my book. Porter is still in the lead but Bennet is gaining ground. BOTH players fit a role and have upside - I'm ignoring the ridiculous sentiment that Porter, a 19 yr old who improved immensely between his freshman and sophomore year has limtied upside. Its a win-win. Only way you mess this up is by foolishly gambling.

Yeah both of the guys fit a role and could fill the position for the next ten years. I'm glad you don't agree with the
Webster part because I hope he is a Wizard for the remainder of his career. He is a perfect fit.

[TheKingOfVa360]

Porter would be our SF of the future but if we draft him we probably lose Webster. I can't see him resigning to be a back up after his break out year.

I disagree. I don't think Porter would start as a rookie. And by next year, Ariza well be gone, so even if Porter starts then, there's still plenty of minutes available at backup SG and SF. Also, as Porter fills out, he'll probably stay playing some PF minutes.

Ok I hope we can keep Webster if we draft Porter. We would have a lot of depth at the SG SF spots with Ariza, Porter, Webster, and Temple.

[Dark Faze]

Hypothetically speaking, would you guys have preferred a "perfect" draft scenario vs what we're looking at today?

Perfect Scenario (meaning took the true best available players since 2010):

Wall (2010)
Caldwell Pope/Shabazz (2013 1st)
Leonard ( 2011 1st)
Faried (2011 1st #2)
Drummond (2012 1st)

Or what could very well happen this year

Wall
Beal
Porter
Nene
Okafor

It may sound like blasphemy, but I actually think the second group might be better in the long run, especially if we can flip Nene and Okafor for an all-star big either through expirings or atrade.

[The Consiglieri]

That's why I'm rather sanguine about "missed" draft picks, because I don't believe those guys would have become "those guys" if they were on the Wiz. And it's also why I was OK with the Nene and Okariza trades and now am quite pleased with them, because the change to the environment has already paid off in improving the quality of (some of) the other players. I'd love to see the Wiz add Porter (and, to a slightly lesser extent, Zeller or Oladipo) to continue building that culture here.

Of course the opportunity cost was $42 million in cap room over this past season and next, which included the inability to trade (cough, Harden) or sign quality players. Well worth those extra 9 wins following a strike shortened season and improving the winning percentage from .303 to .354. I guess that's progress right?

Personally, I don't put much into the whole changing the culture by acquiring expensive vets. I believe it was all a quick fix to try to make the team competitive by a GM with little foresight or vision.

Did anyone notice how great the culture had become when were going through that 4-28 stretch? Probably not.

IMO, what changes the culture is acquiring quality players and winning games. That could have been done with any number of moves, outside of taking on 2 average NBA players making a combined $21 per a year.

And I would add, there is zero evidence that it actually improved the play of any of the players, particularly the players acquired to be the foundation of the rebuild with all of those draft picks.

'10:

Wall: injured, then improved apparently because of his jump shot work during the summer

Seraphin: Regressed in part due to the presence of Oka.

Crawford: Stayed Crawford.

'11:

Vesely: Regressed, confused, and had confidence shaken rather than boosted by F.O. moves and directives including the trade.

Singelton: Saw his minutes disappear, regressed.

Mack: Cut

'12:

Beal: No seeming effect one way or the other. Certainly no way to evaluate impact.

I honestly see no evidence to speak of to suggest that the trade tangibly impacted the team in any positive way whatsoever except in terms of the minor uptick in wins Dat mentions. There's no doubt Oka played better than expected, and Ariza was a bit better than expected. There's also no doubt whatsoever that the trade ruined our flexibility, and ability to make long term improvements for the forseeable future, and most definitely did not help the development of anybody at all, or at best, anybody at all drafted in '10 or '11.

I hated and loathed the trade when it happened, and still do. The only saving grace to it is in the knowledge that the players didn't bottom out with us, but instead, provided some measure of help, unlike the scrubs we traded a top 5 overall pick for in 2009.

[TheKingOfVa360]

PIF, you don't think Wall was a top 5 PG in the league over the last two months of the season? Which pgs were playing better?

Arguably?

Paul
Westbrook
Parker
irving
Curry

and next season Rose and Rondo will be back in action. It'll be a tough road for Wall to get into the top 5.

Irving was clearly not better than Wall the last two months of the season. Irving had a lower per in those two months and his team lost a ton of games. Plus Wall is light years better than him on defense.


Walls PER in March 25.76
April 23.84

Irvings PER in March 21.46
April 16.86

[jivelikenice]

PIF, you don't think Wall was a top 5 PG in the league over the last two months of the season? Which pgs were playing better?

Arguably?

Paul
Westbrook
Parker
irving
Curry

and next season Rose and Rondo will be back in action. It'll be a tough road for Wall to get into the top 5.

Not the right thread for this discussion and Wall discussions can hijack a draft thread but I was responding tothis quote

And Wall wasn't one of the top 5 point guards in the game even at the level he played the last 2 months of the season.

If he could sustain the March/April statistical pace for a full season, you're not talking about a top five pg, you're talking about a top 5 MVP candidate. I'm not saying that's what I expect, but just trying to point out just what type of level he was playing at for that stretch.

[The Consiglieri]

Ok, so what happens if Porter is gone at #3? It's looking more and more like a possiblity now.

What does Ernie do? Does he take Noel despite some teams reportedly red flagging him? Does he go for the high risk/reward picks in Len or Bennett as he's done in the past or does he panic and trade out for the best offer available? (possibly Milwaukee or Minnesota).

He's an idiot if he doesn't take Noel, and of course he is an idiot so.....one other option could be holding up the pick for a trade including a '14 pick. I'd be interested in that, but Noel should be the priority if his body checks out (I'm getting some Oden-esque heebie jeebies.

[Knighthonor]

Are people forgetting that the SA are a Western Team?
As if the SA would have made the finals as a eastern team. come on.

Oh that's right, but this makes so much sense now. I was wondering how they got in the playoffs in the first place. Thanks K'Hon, this is one of the best posts of all time.

That was sarcastic. But ok

[Wizardspride]

https://twitter.com/JimmySmith504

Jimmy Smith ‏@JimmySmith504

Hearing that C Alex Len, who visited with #Pelicans on Friday, is now the likely choice for #Cavs at No. 1 spot in next week's draft.

https://twitter.com/insidemdsports

Jeff Ermann ‏@insidemdsports


Former NBA All-Star big man who's watched numerous draft prospect workouts: "If Alex Len is there, you gotta take him. That includes No. 1."

[stevemcqueen1]

PIF, you don't think Wall was a top 5 PG in the league over the last two months of the season? Which pgs were playing better?

Arguably?

Paul
Westbrook
Parker
irving
Curry

and next season Rose and Rondo will be back in action. It'll be a tough road for Wall to get into the top 5.

Well, in March when the team was reasonably healthy, Wall was arguably the second best player in the NBA. At any position. He was still good through April too even after 5 or 6 or our top 7 went out.

[payitforward]

I could easily see a trade down ...

How many times in the NBA has a GM turned a top 5 pick into a terrific bunch of talent by trading down in the draft? This isn't the NFL and that strategy normally doesn't work. ....

...Also, in the extended video of Porter's workout, I was impressed by his shooting. His form isn't beautiful, but his shot looks effortless and he seemed to make more of them than I remember Beal making in his workout highlights. I think Porter's shot is going to translate. I would be a little more comfortable with that prediction however if his FT% was a little higher.

You are totally correct -- trading down from a high lottery pick hasn't worked very often. And you wouldn't expect it to -- in the NBA a single player can affect a team much more than is likely in the NFL (exception: quarterback).

But in that draft, the lottery players have not worked out well overall, whereas the lower picks are quickly becoming young stars in the league. Hence, in 2011 it might have worked well to trade down. Certainly, we could have picked better players! Even w/o trading down.

[Knighthonor]

I wonder if there is a way to develop KS. I like to see this guy develop. But still like a drafted big with a higher skill level from start.

[payitforward]

Both of you are pretending there wasn't a reason why Denver unloaded Nene as-quickly as possible after re-signing him. Denver probably knew about his foot problems.

I do that trade 10 times out of 10. Getting rid of McGee was addition by substration. That Nene is still a stellar player when healthy is just gravy.

We could have gotten rid of McGee at season's end -- we'd have gotten back cap room. Cap room (some people seem to forget) is $$ you use to pay a player. I.e. it's a player.

I like Nene; and I disliked McGee a lot by the time we traded him. But keep in mind that we'll be paying Nene $13m this year, and lets see how many minutes he can play. Then $13m next year, and how many minutes? Then $13m one more year for whatever you think he'll have left in the tank.

So far all the work of more than 3 years has gotten us to a 28-win team w/ no room to maneuver cap-wise. Hard to see what's really good about anything this regime has done. Yes, Wall. Yes, Beal. Is that a lot to have gotten out of what we had to use?

[payitforward]

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/blogs/magic-basketblog/os-mbb-nba-talent-evaluator-scouts-anthony-bennett-20130616,0,207957.post

“He’s one of the most versatile players around. He’s a guy that can play in the post. He can play a little bit on the wing. In college, at 6-8, 240 he was able to play two positions because he has that versatility. He shoots 38 percent from behind the arc. Although he takes 25 percent of his shots from deep, he had to play in the post. The question is if he’s going to be able to guard small forwards. . . . But he’s so versatile. He can rebound. He can block shots. He can pass the ball as well. He can be one of the better players in a few years that comes out of this draft because of that."
Ryan Blake, the senior director of NBA scouting operations

OTOH, "There is no argument. He can be the top pick," NBA scouting director Ryan Blake says. http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/b ... ards_n.htm