Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[Induveca]

Noel is worth the risk. Pray he slides to us.

[dangermouse]

I agree with rocky. I am a Temple supporter, but his age tells me he is never going to break out like Green is right now.

[montestewart]

Noel is worth the risk. Pray he slides to us.

I still think so, and nothing I've heard recently makes him seem more a risk than I already thought.

[mhd]

I still don't think Noel slides past Orlando. I'd take Noel at 3 for sure.

Honestly, I might do the Derrick Williams trade down idea and grab Zeller if we could (even though I panned Zeller so much earlier). If Zeller is gone, take CJ Mccollum.

Various different potential draft outcomes:

1) Cavs-Len
2) Magic-Mclemore
3) Wiz-Noel

1) Cavs-Noel
2) Magic-Mclemore
3) Wiz-Porter

1) Cavs-Porter
2) Magic-Noel
3) Min (from Wiz)-Oladipo
4) Char-Len
5) Suns-Porter
6) NO-Bennett
7) Sac-Burke
8) Det-MCW (Ford has had them going with MCW for a while)
9) Wiz (from Min)-Zeller/Mccollum/Shabaaz

[Sonny Carson]

They played a radio interview from the Bill Simmons show and the guy on there was saying there's major red flags with Noel and the people surrounding him. Said Noel blew of WWW and LeBrons agent on numerous occasions and that other agents never even tried contacting Noel. Said the Wizards have said that if Noel fell to #3 that they wouldn't take him. Inferred that it was costing him draft position. It sounded horrible and at first I thought be just didn't know wth he was talking about but the KSR guys didn't question the story.

[Dark Faze]

If Noel is available then we have to trade up. I'm not really sure what they are smoking, but he's got truly dominant potential.

[Wizardspride]

Heres the link to the pod cast that kanye found:
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=9392635

Noel talk starts around the 59 minute mark. Lots of speculation.

Wow, that's some rough talk. If Noel is indeed this much of a bad egg, you gotta believe this all goes public in the very near future. Certainly before the draft.

I'm not sure Noel himself is a "bad egg" but he definitely has some questionable people in his inner circle.

And I know this from Georgetown's recruitment of him....

[rockymac52]

If Noel ends up sliding to us at 3, I'd be very tempted to pick him, just because his upside fits exactly the type of player we need in the future, and of course, when you can get the guy who was pretty much the consensus #1 pick all of the year with the 3rd pick, you probably do it.

But to be honest, I'm having a hard time convincing myself that he's destined to be a good pro. Defensively, he seems like a pretty good bet to continue being very good, with the chance of being elite. But I'm really concerned with his offense. There's no way to sugarcoat it, it's just terrible. On the other hand, we don't necessarily need a big man that is an offensive force. I'd expect Noel to have a very low usage rate in the pros, at about only 15%. The key is just how bad his offense is. It's okay if he's not a go-to offensive threat, and he can have a low usage, but he needs to be able to produce semi-efficient offensively if that's the case.

My fear is that he's such a liability offensively that he could end up having a career similar to Hasheem Thabeet or Cole Aldrich. Guys who dominated the collegiate level, and have been very good defensively in limited minutes in the pros, but have absolutely no offense, and it holds them back.

And of course, the concerns about the knee injury. Especially if the injury plays a role in him slipping to us at 3 in the first place. I love the upside, but I really don't want to strike out with this pick. I'm inclined to take the safer route, to be honest.

[montestewart]

They played a radio interview from the Bill Simmons show and the guy on there was saying there's major red flags with Noel and the people surrounding him. Said Noel blew of WWW and LeBrons agent on numerous occasions and that other agents never even tried contacting Noel. Said the Wizards have said that if Noel fell to #3 that they wouldn't take him. Inferred that it was costing him draft position. It sounded horrible and at first I thought be just didn't know wth he was talking about but the KSR guys didn't question the story.

Already been mentioned. Many here (myself included) aren't real concerned of reports about a 19-year-old's failure to follow protocol with agents, many of whom apparently have extremely inflated opinions about their own importance. All I care about is his health and his ability to get stronger and put on a little weight.

The source did not give much information about his own sources, and his "facts" seemed littered with a lot of subjective innuendo. Without more concrete evidence to back up these "red flags," it sounds like a hatchet job, and regarding issues that I don't really care much about. Maybe "sources" are trying to cause him to slip to particular teams.

[AFM]

I'll show you some subjective innuendo.

[FreeBalling]

Also, as for how good they were, its all a matter of what you focus on. When Wall, Beal and Nene all started, they were very good. When all three were simple healthy enough to play, they were good. And along the way, they took down just about every playoff team. They beat the best of the best and the tier under that.

Sigh... to a true fan, the facts can always be canted to make his team better than it is. I did say those were our three good players, didn't I?

...I expect two full on beast in those two (i.e. Wall and Beal) next year. Top 5 at their positions. Thats a ton right there along. You add Nene and Okafor to that group and sorry, thats a solid core in anyones book. Now add Trevor A, he isn't opting out. And Webster is loves the team and wants to be here. Sorry, but that is a legit core to a team.

No kidding! Top 5 in the league at the 1 and 2, Nene playing starter minutes for most of a season at a high level. Okaforiza in house for the next 3+ years and having seasons like they did last year. Etc. etc. etc. Yep, that's a good team. And a solid core.

Thing is, at 20 years old, 2d year in the league, Beal isn't going to be one of the top 5 shooting guards in the game. That's just a silly idea.

And Wall wasn't one of the top 5 point guards in the game even at the level he played the last 2 months of the season. I too hope he'll improve, but I'll be happy if and when he's one of the dozen top 1s in the league, and we are still waiting for that.

As to Nene, over his entire career he has rarely played starter minutes. He's averaged slightly over 1500 minutes a season. If you leave out the two years he played the least, and the 2 years he played the most, his average for the remaining years is 1830 minutes a year. Given that every year he is older, that's the most you should count on.

And you want to count two expiring salaries and an unrestricted FA -- who is facing his *one chance* to get the best contract he'll ever get in this league -- as part of our "core." No. Tho I agree it's likely Webster will stay here.

But... how good is he, Hands? 49 SFs played 25+ minutes a game last year. Martell had the 27th best WS40 and the 34th best PER in that group of 49.

I think Ves can still redeem himself....

You thought he'd be our "franchise player" man!

As for how good they are when healthy, if you don't see it you don't see it.

Again, you projected Jan Vesely as our franchise player. That's what you saw.

We have 3 good players, one of whom looks to be at the end of his heavy-minute years. The other two we judge quite optimistically based on our ideas of their future. That's our "core" -- assets we have for the coming years.

That's not "a good team."

Hands, there not going to let you forget that pick. You were being positive, I'll give you that. I do recall JV playing well with Wall. Maybe their chemistry will unfold this year.


Just win baby!

[GhostsOfGil]

Noel looks like Mcgee with a much higher defensive iq. We always said if Mcgee had a brain...

[montestewart]

I'll show you some subjective innuendo.

innuendo seems like one of those words that should always be italicized, no matter what. I like the mashup word, insinnuendo.

[Sonny Carson]

Noel looks like Mcgee with a much higher defensive iq. We always said if Mcgee had a brain...

Doesnt have the length and cant explode like McGee though (No Hibbert)

[rockymac52]

Noel looks like Mcgee with a much higher defensive iq. We always said if Mcgee had a brain...

No. Just no.

A much higher defensive IQ? Yes.

But what about the entire reason McGee is as good as he is - offense? Noel isn't even CLOSE to McGee's offensive production. And he never will be, even in the most optimistic projections.

[GhostsOfGil]

Noel looks like Mcgee with a much higher defensive iq. We always said if Mcgee had a brain...

No. Just no.

A much higher defensive IQ? Yes.

But what about the entire reason McGee is as good as he is - offense? Noel isn't even CLOSE to McGee's offensive production. And he never will be, even in the most optimistic projections.

And how offensively sound was Mcgee as a 19 year old rookie? I'll tell you: He averaged 3.3 points per game and shot under 50% from the line. Their per minute scoring rate was practically identical.

[Dark Faze]

I think guys are underrating Noels offense. He isn't going to be great by any means, but a big with his athleticism and finishing ability is going to be around 13 PPG to go along with all the other things he does well. You don't need more than that from a defensive/rebounding C.

Hibbert, Chandler, Noah...these are some of the best defensive C's in the league and all were under 13 PPG on the season.

Seriously you have to take Noel if he's there and his knees check out. He's probably got more defensive potential than Anthony Davis (although Davis is the far superior two way prospect).

[Dark Faze]

Draftexpress supposedly updated the Bennett scouting video?

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2013/6/17 ... ress-video

^ The defensive effort towards the end is mind numbingly bad. Arguably the worst I've seen from a prospect.

[rockymac52]

I think guys are underrating Noels offense. He isn't going to be great by any means, but a big with his athleticism and finishing ability is going to be around 13 PPG to go along with all the other things he does well. You don't need more than that from a defensive/rebounding C.

Hibbert, Chandler, Noah...these are some of the best defensive C's in the league and all were under 13 PPG on the season.

Seriously you have to take Noel if he's there and his knees check out. He's probably got more defensive potential than Anthony Davis (although Davis is the far superior two way prospect).

Here's the thing... you're somewhat right, but also somewhat wrong.

Yes, we don't need very much offensive production from our defensive/rebounding center. Clearly there are plenty of active players that fit the description of what we'd want in a defensive-minded center, who aren't exactly go-to threats on offense. If Noel manages to have a similar career, then that would be fantastic, and he'd definitely be worth a top 3 pick, no questions asked.

However, the key is how good his offense will be. The thing about guys like Chandler and Noah is that they have very low usage rates, in the 12-17% range or so, and they couple that with an above average to very high offensive efficiency rating (ORtg). Noel would likely have a similarly small usage rate, but it remains to be seen whether he would couple that with above average to high offensive efficiency.

It really is as simple as converting put backs and wide open layups/dunks at a good rate. However, that's easier said than done. It sounds very easy for a 7 footer to shoot over 50% when they're only taking 5 or 6 shots a game, all from within 5 feet, but the reality is that not everybody is able to do that. That's what makes guys like Chandler and Noah unique. On the flipside, that's what makes guys like Hasheem Thabeet and Cole Aldrich end of the bench types. Their defense is statistically just as good, if not better, than the likes of Chandler and Noah. However, they are black holes offensively. While they also have very low usage rates, it doesn't appear to help them very much, because they still are very inefficient offensively, even while only shooting a couple times per game, all within 5 feet.

That's the issue here. Will Noel be able to be a low usage, high efficiency player on offense a la Noah and Chandler, or will he be a low usage, low-average efficiency player on offense a la Thabeet and Aldrich? If he hits the upside and can be an efficient offensive center, then he's a great pick. But if he ends up more on the downside and isn't very efficient offensively even in a very limited role, then he's a complete bust.

I have yet to see any convincing evidence that indicates he's more likely than not to become an efficient offensive player. He already had a very low usage rate for a college prospect at about 17%, and even with that already below average usage rate, he still wasn't able to post a very good offensive efficiency rating. That scares me.

Yes, he's very young, and there's plenty of time for him to develop. Yes, his athleticism and above the rim dunks are encouraging. But I'm still not convinced he can get by on offense in this league. And as I hopefully demonstrated above, if he can't produce offensively, then he's going to be a bust, regardless of how good his defense is.

Take Larry Sanders for example. His first two years in the league he was an elite defensive center, with DRtgs of 99 and 97 (this past season, his DRtg was once again 99). However, his ORtgs in this first two seasons were terrible - 91 and 92. In his first two seasons, despite having legitimate elite defensive talent, his offense was SO bad, even in a low usage role, that he was a net negative when he was on the court. This past season he transformed before our eyes and became one of the best young centers in the league. As I explained earlier, it wasn't his defense that changed. It was his offense. His ORtg skyrocketed to 109, with the same usage rate he had in his first two seasons. Now he is an average-above average offensive player, and an elite defensive player, making him a very good player overall. If Noel turns out to play like Sanders in his first two seasons, he's going to be a bust. If Noel can develop into the player Sanders was this past season, then he's going to be a great pick.

EDIT: to add to the Larry Sanders comparison, it's worth noting that Sanders had a much higher usage rate in college than Noel did (27% the season before he was drafted vs. 17% for Noel), and he still had a higher ORtg that year with 116 (vs. 113 for Noel). Although to be fair, Noel beat Sanders on DRtg, with about 82 vs. 90 for Sanders. Synergy stats also point to Sanders being a more efficient and productive offensive threat in college than Noel. To be fair, again, Sanders was a junior before he was drafted, whereas Noel was only a freshman. It's definitely conceivable that Noel would have progressed on both sides of the ball if you gave him 2 more years.

[Dark Faze]

There's no reason to believe that Noel won't be a low usage, high efficiency player. He only averaged 7 shots a game as a freshmen on 60% TS and and 59% FG.

There's really nothing at all that suggests that he can't be at least as good as Chandler and Joakim on that end of the court, and he's going to be more productive than those guys offensively based off of being more mobile and getting into the passing lanes due to high steal rate.

He's a phenomenal prospect.