Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[rockymac52]

There's no reason to believe that Noel won't be a low usage, high efficiency player. He only averaged 7 shots a game as a freshmen on 60% TS and and 59% FG.

There's really nothing at all that suggests that he can't be at least as good as Chandler and Joakim on that end of the court, and he's going to be more productive than those guys offensively based off of being more mobile and getting into the passing lanes due to high steal rate.

He's a phenomenal prospect.

No reason? How about the fact that he had a very low usage rate for an NBA prospect in college, and he still was not very efficient.

I agree that there's no reason to suggest that he CAN'T be as good as Chandler and Noah offensively, but likewise, there's no real reasons to suggest that he IS LIKELY TO be as good as them.

Not to mention the obvious point that even if he one day develops into a low usage, high efficiency player like Noah or Chandler, it's probably going to take several years to get there, and between now and then, he's going to be very bad offensively, hurting the team's success in the short-term. Obviously most big men take some time to develop, and you're always going to need to be prepared to wait patiently while they develop, but still.

I also don't think you can definitively expect Noel to be better than Chanlder and Noah on defense. Yes, there's reason to believe that ONE DAY he can be even better than them on defense, but it would be foolish to blindly assume that he's going to be elite on defense from day one, even more elite than the guy who won Defensive Player of the Year in the NBA last season. He's not a sure thing, even on that side of the ball.

[hands11]

superballmans observation on san antonios draft slots and personnel is good. Someone made a similar observation about indiana. Like who is the highest drafted player on that squad..paul george? Memphis is similar to an extent. I think its about the type of personnel and mix brought it. If you compare position players a prototype may be formed.
conley, parker and former spur george hill vs wall..the previously not highly considered Lance stephenson, Danny green, tony allen ( two of who are 6 6' or over, rebound, defend or shoot well vs beal)..the big small forwards kawhi, prince, paul george. ( porter can be this), Power forward scorer rebounders who are physical david west, zach randolph..variable for Sa. Defensive player of year candidates bigger than 7 foot Tim duncan; roy hibbert and marc gasol. We have nene and okafor for our bigs.
So porter fits the type, we may need another big guard at the two and hopefully a big center. Also the players are team and family oriented, you keep them together for long and bring little changes but more stability, they are not fussy or mental midgets and live in non glamorous cities

So who do you think that played for Wizards playoff team would fit in there ?

And EJ ?

And you glazed over how Webster and Trevor A already match up already and went right to Porter.

But you reached the conclusion I have bantered on about for a while.

We need another guard who can dribble and shoot.
We need another big that can rebound, defender and match up with younger and longer bigs.

[mhd]

Noel looks like Mcgee with a much higher defensive iq. We always said if Mcgee had a brain...

No. Just no.

A much higher defensive IQ? Yes.

But what about the entire reason McGee is as good as he is - offense? Noel isn't even CLOSE to McGee's offensive production. And he never will be, even in the most optimistic projections.

McGee also has Yinka Dare'esque assist numbers. He'd also shoot the most idiotic shots in the paint. Knowing your limitations is a very impressive trait. I still doubt we'll have a shot at drafting Noel.

[truwizfan4evr]

So, Noel weight came in as 218 pounds? He actually lost weight.

[hands11]

stevemcq, good observation on the Spurs. And depressing to think that the Wiz had SIX players on the roster this year who were drafted in the top 7, with another likely on the way this summer. And does anyone think we're a championship contender?

Another interesting part of the Spurs story is Leonard. The only reason they were able to draft him (other than the fact that a lot of GMs passed on him) is that they pulled off a trade of George Hill for the 15th pick 2 summers ago. So they took a guy no one thought of as a 1st round pick, helped him work on his game, showcased his talent and increased his value around the league. Then they trade that guy at the peak of his value for another (Leonard) who was undervalued at the time. Buy low, sell high.

But most of all, I really do believe it's the organization, the system, and the environment that allows these guys to be successful. I love your projection of Vesely on the Spurs, it's probably not too far off from the truth. That's why I'm rather sanguine about "missed" draft picks, because I don't believe those guys would have become "those guys" if they were on the Wiz. And it's also why I was OK with the Nene and Okariza trades and now am quite pleased with them, because the change to the environment has already paid off in improving the quality of (some of) the other players. I'd love to see the Wiz add Porter (and, to a slightly lesser extent, Zeller or Oladipo) to continue building that culture here.

Exactly.

First they needed to get the engine running. Then you can slowly start to tinker with it to get it running better.

This is what I have been saying about "Player Development"

First off, we did see players develop last year. Wall and Beal developed really well. Webster rebounded. Temple was solid. And even Kevin should progress late in the year. Price also developed some as a PG. Not a ton I admit.

Ves and Singleton did not.

And because of the record, people miss how much development there was. Hell, they were a top rated defensive team and a top 3 ball shooting team. There was tons of development.

First you get stable and good, then you win. If they keep this together, the wins are just around the corner.

Wall and Beal are top talents. They are on the cusp of proving they are ready to lead a team. One more year of seasoning and they should be coming into their prime.

[Dark Faze]

Rocky, Noel shot 60% from the field as a freshmen. How much more efficient is he supposed to be exactly?

[hands11]

Seriously:

Ancillary good happened with the Okariza trade. At the same time, Vesely's and Seraphin's careers with Washington were destroyed. Those are not mutually exclusive.

Again, going back to read the draft threads, it was always clear they would move him to PF.

They had to have told him that. It was printed everywhere.

Ves would have been a nice pick at #15 or so, not #6 because Ves is a 3 year min project. You don't pay 3/4M a year on a project like him. That 12M, lots of questions and 3 years to find out if you hit a triple or a HR. Its a bad roll of the dice.

And though I didn't like him as the pick, he was a Wizards so I pulled for him. I hoped for the best. But dude can't even fit his FT shooter. He can't even hit a mid range. Hell, Booker added a mid range and Ves is more fluid in his shooting then Booker.

Ves was supposed to be a warrior mentally strong kid. Well that isn't who he is ending up being. He may have show that in games but he isn't a warrior at training, learning and over coming. Now maybe we are all judging in between stages and they are actually doing some needed reconstruction that will help in the long run. Pippen was broken mentally before he took the next step. But Pippen could shoot and he showed to have what it takes inside because he was able to respond to MJ teaching him.

They took a big risk on Ves at #6. On I wouldn't have taken. But he can still turn it around. But he need to man up. Toughen up. And get a move on. He really needs a light bulb moment.

It's gonna come on. Vesely will have his best season. Where? I don't know.

I believe JV can do a little more than run around. He's got to toughen up and it is about time for him to emulate Wall. The switch comes on with confidence. Conditioning and muscle memory with whatever it takes to free his mind will get Jan Vesely to break through

Now that he's communicating I have a much better feeling about his future.

I agree CCJ

I do feel better knowing that he is opening his month. When I have a lot on my mind and I'm down, sometimes I just need to dump it, then I can get to work on what I need to do.

Ves is still young. He didn't speak the language. He was Hon... Ves-e-ly over there. He had a coaching change and a position change. And a roster overhaul.

Thats a lot for a young player to over come. That's 6 big things to overcome.

We should know which way things will go pretty early. He is either going to hit some shots and FTs or not. The first month will be really important.

[hands11]

Some interesting notes from the Bill Simmons/Ryen Rusillo podcast

Rusillo: "I heard that Washington say that if (Noel) is on the board at #3, they won't take him"

Rusillo doesn't like Noel as a top pick either

1) Noel hasn't signed with an agent yet- he has blown off and ignored meetings with agents including World Wide Wes and he blew off one agent six times in a row.
2) He has a growth plate issue when he was a sophomore in high school
3) He's hurt with the knee
4) He doesn't have the skill set offensively like someone like Anthony Davis
5) Weight issues - teammates at Kentucky say that he was never 220.

Right, that why I have him 6th on my board.

The growth plate issue was reported before. And I don't care what he says predraft so he can get picked higher and make more money, I don't think he is even going to play next year. Just like I didn't think D Rose was going to play this year.

[dangermouse]

Those are some huge red flags. Pass on Noel. We need to knock this pick out of the park, we can't afford an Oden-with-an-attitude situation.

[blazinskillz]

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/blogs/magic-basketblog/os-mbb-nba-talent-evaluator-scouts-anthony-bennett-20130616,0,207957.post

“He’s one of the most versatile players around. He’s a guy that can play in the post. He can play a little bit on the wing. In college, at 6-8, 240 he was able to play two positions because he has that versatility. He shoots 38 percent from behind the arc. Although he takes 25 percent of his shots from deep, he had to play in the post. The question is if he’s going to be able to guard small forwards. . . . But he’s so versatile. He can rebound. He can block shots. He can pass the ball as well. He can be one of the better players in a few years that comes out of this draft because of that."
Ryan Blake, the senior director of NBA scouting operations

OTOH, "There is no argument. He can be the top pick," NBA scouting director Ryan Blake says. http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/b ... ards_n.htm

So???????

[hands11]

Porter would be our SF of the future but if we draft him we probably lose Webster. I can't see him resigning to be a back up after his break out year.

I disagree. I don't think Porter would start as a rookie. And by next year, Ariza well be gone, so even if Porter starts then, there's still plenty of minutes available at backup SG and SF. Also, as Porter fills out, he'll probably stay playing some PF minutes.

I don't think anyone we draft is starting.

But I repeat repeat myself.

They are shooting for a playoff run next year and I think they have their eyes on more then just the first round.

Wall and Beal are their two young players. They will likely run with vets around them.

Whoever they pick is a future investment and this year help at depth.

Good to see that Bennett video. You know, the first time I saw him in a video I was like
Then I saw how lost and not trying he was on defense and I kind of wrote him off.

Being that lost on defense is a mind/personality thing that I don't see changing quickly. And if he is that bad on D, his offense doesn't matter much. Bennett makes AJ look like MJ playing D.

I think he will be good eventually. He is a great physical talent that has real heart on offense. What I question in his head and if or how long it will take for him to put it together. He stands a better chance if he lands on a vet team though.

[sfam]

Seriously:

Ancillary good happened with the Okariza trade. At the same time, Vesely's and Seraphin's careers with Washington were destroyed. Those are not mutually exclusive.

Yeah, and it's not like Vesely and Seraphin were ever considered important players to develop.

Was Danny Greens career destroyed when SA let him walk.

Twice.

No. Because players that get it, work on what they need to work on, they don't shrink and make excuses.

Temple is that kind of player. For those that want us to be more like SA, they shouldn't undervalue Temple so much. Temple did not shrink from the moment given a chance. He took the shots. He played PG. He play SG. And when they needed, he logged heavy minutes.

You know who else was that kind of player, Mason.

Both are clearly SA types because, SA actually selected them both at one point. What we lack here are more pretend SA front office types, even though so many seem to respect that model so much.

I totally undervalue Temple and hope we replace him this year with someone far more productive. If he's a San Antonio like pick, I say lets give him to San Antonio for Green.

[rockymac52]

Rocky, Noel shot 60% from the field as a freshmen. How much more efficient is he supposed to be exactly?

The thing is, pretty much every NBA center prospect in puts up numbers like that in college. The difference is that even the guys who end up being low usage guys in the NBA typically have above average usage rates when in college. But Noel is a rare exception who had a below average usage rate in college.

If Noel had an average to above average usage rate in college, it's very likely that his FG% would decrease significantly.

If he can manage to transition to the NBA and still shoot upwards of 50% on low usage, then that's great, and he's going to be a star if he can stay healthy. But if he can't maintain that incredibly high FG% in the NBA, then he's going to be a bust.

There's reason to believe that he can stick to putbacks, dunks, and layups, even on a low usage rate, and post good efficiency stats at the next level. But I'm just skeptical because of his peculiarly low usage rate in college, and furthermore, from watching him it's apparent that he is beyond raw offensively. His ugly free throw stroke and percentage from the line do not bode well for his future ability to develop any semblance of a shot outside of 5 feet. And his incredibly thin frame might pose difficulties offensively at the next level.

I'm not trying to say he's going to be a bust necessarily, but I think there's a real solid possibility of that happening, which might be enough to scare me away from picking him.

[sfam]

Porter would be our SF of the future but if we draft him we probably lose Webster. I can't see him resigning to be a back up after his break out year.

I disagree. I don't think Porter would start as a rookie. And by next year, Ariza well be gone, so even if Porter starts then, there's still plenty of minutes available at backup SG and SF. Also, as Porter fills out, he'll probably stay playing some PF minutes.

I don't think anyone we draft is starting.

But I repeat repeat myself.

They are shooting for a playoff run next year and I think they have their eyes on more then just the first round.

Wall and Beal are their two young players. They will likely run with vets around them.

Whoever they pick is a future investment and this year help at depth.

Good to see that Bennett video. You know, the first time I saw him in a video I was like
Then I saw his lost and not trying on defense and I kind of wrote him off.
I think he will be good. He is a great physical talent. What I question in his head and if or how long it will take for him to put it together. He stands a better chance if he lands on a vet team.

I think Nene and Okafor would be perfect for Bennett's development. They could take him under their wing and get him to see the light on defensive effort. That coupled with Wall's up-tempo game would probably be very exciting to Bennett.

[hands11]

Heres the link to the pod cast that kanye found:
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=9392635

Noel talk starts around the 59 minute mark. Lots of speculation.

They are pretty much saying a ton of things I have been saying.

CJM also getting some love as well.

Love that they called the Noel heavier weight thing as BS. Of course he is going to say he weighs more.

Get on a scale dude. Don't just tell us what you weigh. We are talking millions of dollars here. Prove it.

[hands11]

Cliff notes for whoever can't watch the Bennett video: He's a beast. Just a monster. Definitely fits WizD's criteria of Explosiveness and Finishing Thru Contact (EFTC)

Dude.

Get a hotel.

[hands11]

Also, as for how good they were, its all a matter of what you focus on. When Wall, Beal and Nene all started, they were very good. When all three were simple healthy enough to play, they were good. And along the way, they took down just about every playoff team. They beat the best of the best and the tier under that.

Sigh... to a true fan, the facts can always be canted to make his team better than it is. I did say those were our three good players, didn't I?

...I expect two full on beast in those two (i.e. Wall and Beal) next year. Top 5 at their positions. Thats a ton right there along. You add Nene and Okafor to that group and sorry, thats a solid core in anyones book. Now add Trevor A, he isn't opting out. And Webster is loves the team and wants to be here. Sorry, but that is a legit core to a team.

No kidding! Top 5 in the league at the 1 and 2, Nene playing starter minutes for most of a season at a high level. Okaforiza in house for the next 3+ years and having seasons like they did last year. Etc. etc. etc. Yep, that's a good team. And a solid core.

Thing is, at 20 years old, 2d year in the league, Beal isn't going to be one of the top 5 shooting guards in the game. That's just a silly idea.

And Wall wasn't one of the top 5 point guards in the game even at the level he played the last 2 months of the season. I too hope he'll improve, but I'll be happy if and when he's one of the dozen top 1s in the league, and we are still waiting for that.

As to Nene, over his entire career he has rarely played starter minutes. He's averaged slightly over 1500 minutes a season. If you leave out the two years he played the least, and the 2 years he played the most, his average for the remaining years is 1830 minutes a year. Given that every year he is older, that's the most you should count on.

And you want to count two expiring salaries and an unrestricted FA -- who is facing his *one chance* to get the best contract he'll ever get in this league -- as part of our "core." No. Tho I agree it's likely Webster will stay here.

But... how good is he, Hands? 49 SFs played 25+ minutes a game last year. Martell had the 27th best WS40 and the 34th best PER in that group of 49.

I think Ves can still redeem himself....

You thought he'd be our "franchise player" man!

As for how good they are when healthy, if you don't see it you don't see it.

Again, you projected Jan Vesely as our franchise player. That's what you saw.

We have 3 good players, one of whom looks to be at the end of his heavy-minute years. The other two we judge quite optimistically based on our ideas of their future. That's our "core" -- assets we have for the coming years.

That's not "a good team."

PIF Brother.. Give it a break.

I have already addressed that at least 3 times.

Its a sport board. I'm a fan. I posted that during the strike season before Ves had even played a single game when Wall was looking like total crap and the other players were Dray, McGee and Nick.

You can pull up a post from any poster on here where they said something out of frustration that was off. ANYONE HERE.

If you want to debate, then debate.. instead of acting like a child.

[jivelikenice]

I'm not a particularly big fan of Len but if the argument is to take Noels at #3 because of his defense then why not take Len? He has the size/strength/bulk/athleticism to be at least 90% of the defender that Noels is projected to be and he has far greater offensive upside.

I'm not a fan of taking either and prefer Porter than Bennett, but if the argument is to take Noels and be thrilled that he slipped, I just don't get the logic. Noels to me is a name that was high on mock drafts since the start of last season. Before the injury he still didn't seem like a consensus #1 and now he's rehabbing a torn ACL.

[rockymac52]

I'm not a particularly big fan of Len but if the argument is to take Noels at #3 because of his defense then why not take Len? He has the size/strength/bulk/athleticism to be at least 90% of the defender that Noels is projected to be and he has far greater offensive upside.

I'm not a fan of taking either and prefer Porter than Bennett, but if the argument is to take Noels and be thrilled that he slipped, I just don't get the logic. Noels to me is a name that was high on mock drafts since the start of last season. Before the injury he still didn't seem like a consensus #1 and now he's rehabbing a torn ACL.

Well, it appears at the moment that if Noel falls to us at 3, it's because the Cavs took Len 1st overall, so it's kinda a moot point. But to be fair, you do have a point if Noel goes 1st and we're choosing between Porter and Len.

[montestewart]

You can pull up a post from any poster on here where they said something out of frustration that was off. ANYONE HERE.

Dare ya