The 2013 NBA Free Agency Thread

[verbal8]

Since Webster was in a 1 year deal, the wizards do not get any special rights to resign him. 2 years gets the early bird exception, which I think is 125% of the last year.

Even is signing Webster doesn't leave more than the bae, partial mle deals can be longer so the overall value could be higher.

[rockymac52]

Since Webster was in a 1 year deal, the wizards do not get any special rights to resign him. 2 years gets the early bird exception, which I think is 125% of the last year.

Even is signing Webster doesn't leave more than the bae, partial mle deals can be longer so the overall value could be higher.

Good point, I forgot about that. However, anybody that we'd be signing for an annual rate of $2 million or less probably isn't going to command a 3 or 4 year deal, unless the last 2-3 years are non-guaranteed or options.

[nate33]

I have zero interest in either Mason or Barbosa. Given their age and/or injury history, I'd rather just take my chances with guys from the D-League. I like Temple better than both of them, for instance.

Patty Mills is certainly worthy of consideration, though.

[rockymac52]

Fair enough, Nate. Can't say that I disagree.

I think a lot of this offseason is becoming very clear.

I expect us to draft Porter 3rd overall.
I expect us to re-sign Webster for about $3 million per year (3-4 years total).
I expect us to re-sign Price for $2 million per year or less (or a VERY similar player if not Price).

I think the first two things above are damn near guarantees, and the 3rd is very likely.

I expect us to draft a PG, PF, or C with the 38th pick.
If we draft a PG, I expect us to sign a PF or C for the remainder of the MLE or the BAE for $2 million per year or less.
If we draft a PF or C, I expect us to sign a 3rd PG for the remainder of the MLE or the BAE for $2 million per year or less.

Lastly, I expect us to keep the 15th roster spot open for the time being, because we (and most teams) like to keep it open just in case there's a lot of injuries at any point during the season and we are desperate for another body at a particular position, or to give us slightly more flexibility with 2 for 1 uneven trades if needed.


There's a number of other alternative routes that we could go that have been discussed on this board in the past few weeks, and some are better than others, but realistically, I think this is what's going to happen. Nothing Earth shattering. The only remaining questions IMO are who we draft at 38, what free agent PG/PF/C we target for $2 million or less, and whether we bring back Price or elect to go with another below average veteran backup PG (and who that person might be).

[rockymac52]

If Houston doesn't re-sign Greg Smith, probably because they are forced to cut him if they want to sign Howard and Paul, then I think we should jump on that opportunity. The guy has been an absolute monster in limited minutes so far. He'd be a phenomenal backup big man right away, and could potentially develop into our long-term starter. He's insanely efficient on both sides of the ball, and he's a true post player. Seriously, check out his stats, he's been unreal. I think he's under the radar enough that if Houston let him go, we might be able to sign him for $2 million a year.

[rockymac52]

I've been trying to come up with a consensus for what DeJuan Blair will cost in free agency this year, but haven't had much luck so far. There's absolutely no chance the Spurs re-sign him, or rather, that he re-signs with the Spurs. He has completely fallen out of the rotation, and his agent really pushed for him to be traded at the deadline. He's definitely going to be a free agent, and he'll sign with another team this season where he'll hopefully get more consistent playing time and perhaps more money. But that's my question... how much money is he going to cost?

Our only realistic shot at signing Blair is if he's willing to sign for $2 million/year or less. Due to his unique knee injury situation, and his recent lack of playing time, I think it's posssssible that we could pick him up for about $2 million/year, but that might be wishful thinking.

What do you guys think his value is? Not necessarily what he's worth, but what he's going to get as a free agent this summer.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If Houston doesn't re-sign Greg Smith, probably because they are forced to cut him if they want to sign Howard and Paul, then I think we should jump on that opportunity. The guy has been an absolute monster in limited minutes so far. He'd be a phenomenal backup big man right away, and could potentially develop into our long-term starter. He's insanely efficient on both sides of the ball, and he's a true post player. Seriously, check out his stats, he's been unreal. I think he's under the radar enough that if Houston let him go, we might be able to sign him for $2 million a year.

Great idea, rocky. Greg Smith is rock-solid and better than a lot of lottery-selected, veteran bigs.

[rockymac52]

If Houston doesn't re-sign Greg Smith, probably because they are forced to cut him if they want to sign Howard and Paul, then I think we should jump on that opportunity. The guy has been an absolute monster in limited minutes so far. He'd be a phenomenal backup big man right away, and could potentially develop into our long-term starter. He's insanely efficient on both sides of the ball, and he's a true post player. Seriously, check out his stats, he's been unreal. I think he's under the radar enough that if Houston let him go, we might be able to sign him for $2 million a year.

Great idea, rocky. Greg Smith is rock solid and better than a lot of lottery-selected veteran bigs.

I feel like there's no way the Rockets let him leave though. They're supposed to be the best of the best when it comes to analytics, so I find it hard to believe they'd let Smith go after the amazing season he had. Obviously, if the Rockets are able to land Howard, then they might not have as much use for Smith anymore, in which case he might become an unrestricted free agent.

I guess I'll have to start rooting for Dwight to sign with the Rockets so Smith has a chance at becoming a free agent. Although I just realized that Houston would have to decide whether or not to bring back Smith before knowing if they'll get Howard, right? I think the Rockets might just prefer to trade TRob for a draft pick or cap space, then sign Dwight with the remainder of their cap space, and bring back Smith for a cheap one year backup. Still, between Asik, TRob, Royce White, Terrence Jones, Motiejunas, and Smith, there's already a huge logjam even if White never plays in the NBA and/or Dwight (or Josh Smith, Millsap, or Jefferson) sign with them. It's a very interesting situation to say the least.

[verbal8]

If Houston doesn't re-sign Greg Smith, probably because they are forced to cut him if they want to sign Howard and Paul, then I think we should jump on that opportunity. The guy has been an absolute monster in limited minutes so far. He'd be a phenomenal backup big man right away, and could potentially develop into our long-term starter. He's insanely efficient on both sides of the ball, and he's a true post player. Seriously, check out his stats, he's been unreal. I think he's under the radar enough that if Houston let him go, we might be able to sign him for $2 million a year.

Great idea, rocky. Greg Smith is rock solid and better than a lot of lottery-selected veteran bigs.

I feel like there's no way the Rockets let him leave though. They're supposed to be the best of the best when it comes to analytics, so I find it hard to believe they'd let Smith go after the amazing season he had. Obviously, if the Rockets are able to land Howard, then they might not have as much use for Smith anymore, in which case he might become an unrestricted free agent.

It looks like he is Greg Smith is signed on a deal that is not fully guaranteed for this season. I think if they move Thomas Robinson, they have enough cap space for a max deal.

[fishercob]

I think the news of each subsequent big money player opting out is good news for the Wiz, especially with regard to Webster.

Bynum, Howard, Josh Smith, Igoudala, Ellis, David West. Millsap, Calderon, etc are all going to chew up cap space around the league, making less available money to chase guys like Webster with anything more then the MLE.

More opt outs!

[Ruzious]

I've been trying to come up with a consensus for what DeJuan Blair will cost in free agency this year, but haven't had much luck so far. There's absolutely no chance the Spurs re-sign him, or rather, that he re-signs with the Spurs. He has completely fallen out of the rotation, and his agent really pushed for him to be traded at the deadline. He's definitely going to be a free agent, and he'll sign with another team this season where he'll hopefully get more consistent playing time and perhaps more money. But that's my question... how much money is he going to cost?

Our only realistic shot at signing Blair is if he's willing to sign for $2 million/year or less. Due to his unique knee injury situation, and his recent lack of playing time, I think it's posssssible that we could pick him up for about $2 million/year, but that might be wishful thinking.

What do you guys think his value is? Not necessarily what he's worth, but what he's going to get as a free agent this summer.

Good question - keeping in mind that if we sign Webster, the chances are iffy that we'll have enough left of the MLE to afford Blair - but re-signing Webster is no automatic thing if Porter goes 3rd - which is still the most likely option, imo. The other free agent PF that I'd like the Wiz to consider is Brandan Wright - they're kinda like the Abbott & Costello (or Laurel & Hardy) of PF's - 1 is short and stumpy - the other tall and lanky. I suspect Blair goes a little cheaper than Wright - based on how consistent Wright has been. Otoh, Wright is likely seen as someone who can't handle major minutes. Maybe there are lingering questions about Blair's mysterious ACL, but that always seemed hokie to me since he never had a problem with it - as far as I know.

[nate33]

If Houston doesn't re-sign Greg Smith, probably because they are forced to cut him if they want to sign Howard and Paul, then I think we should jump on that opportunity. The guy has been an absolute monster in limited minutes so far. He'd be a phenomenal backup big man right away, and could potentially develop into our long-term starter. He's insanely efficient on both sides of the ball, and he's a true post player. Seriously, check out his stats, he's been unreal. I think he's under the radar enough that if Houston let him go, we might be able to sign him for $2 million a year.

I think his numbers are solid, but I think characterizing him as "an absolute monster" and "unreal" is overstating things a bit. He played extremely limited minutes for a run-and-gun offense with great floor spacing and the fasted pace in the league. I think that's going to inflate his numbers a bit.

I'm not saying that he isn't an intriguing target. I'm just saying that Houston might not be so concerned about letting him go and he might not be in quite as much demand as you think.

I curious about your comment that he is "insanely efficient on both sides of the ball". I can see his sky high TS% but I don't have access to Synergy. Can you elaborate a bit on his defensive efficiency?

[Nivek]

Smith had a stretch of the season where his numbers were through the roof terrific. By the end of the year, he rated about average in my stuff. He's very efficient on offense -- makes his shots (most of which are at-rim) and is an excellent offensive rebounder. His defense is a weak point in my numbers. Fouls a lot. He'd be a MAJOR upgrade for the Wizards as a reserve center.

[Dat2U]

Fair enough, Nate. Can't say that I disagree.

I think a lot of this offseason is becoming very clear.

I expect us to draft Porter 3rd overall.
I expect us to re-sign Webster for about $3 million per year (3-4 years total).
I expect us to re-sign Price for $2 million per year or less (or a VERY similar player if not Price).

I think the first two things above are damn near guarantees, and the 3rd is very likely.

1. I don't know what Cleveland does. If Porter is there, he's obviously the pick. If he's not, I have no idea what Ernie does.

2. I may still be in the minority on this, but I think #1 effects #2. I don't think Webster is automatically coming back if Porter is in the mix. You never know. Webster is a UFA, if he looks at the crowded SF position he may decide to go elsewhere regardless of how bad the Wizards may want to keep him. Some team might make him a strong offer. Some team might promise a starting job with less competition. This is definitely not a guarantee if Porter is drafted (and Ariza is not traded). If Porter isn't drafted, then I would certainly expect Webster to be back.

3. This would be a mistake. Status quo at backup PG would be unacceptable to me knowing what we went through last year whenever Wall was not playing. Price had his moments, but mainly as a shooter, not as a facilitator. Too many times the offense went down the tubes with Price running it. I think an upgrade is a priority but I wouldn't be surprised to see Ernie to keep Price and give him some decent coin to boot.

[Ruzious]

Fair enough, Nate. Can't say that I disagree.

I think a lot of this offseason is becoming very clear.

I expect us to draft Porter 3rd overall.
I expect us to re-sign Webster for about $3 million per year (3-4 years total).
I expect us to re-sign Price for $2 million per year or less (or a VERY similar player if not Price).

I think the first two things above are damn near guarantees, and the 3rd is very likely.

1. I don't know what Cleveland does. If Porter is there, he's obviously the pick. If he's not, I have no idea what Ernie does.

2. I may still be in the minority on this, but I think #1 effects #2. I don't think Webster is automatically coming back if Porter is in the mix. You never know. Webster is a UFA, if he looks at the crowded SF position he may decide to go elsewhere regardless of how bad the Wizards may want to keep him. Some team might make him a strong offer. Some team might promise a starting job with less competition. This is definitely not a guarantee if Porter is drafted (and Ariza is not traded). If Porter isn't drafted, then I would certainly expect Webster to be back.

3. This would be a mistake. Status quo at backup PG would be unacceptable to me knowing what we went through last year whenever Wall was not playing. Price had his moments, but mainly as a shooter, not as a facilitator. Too many times the offense went down the tubes with Price running it. I think an upgrade is a priority but I wouldn't be surprised to see Ernie to keep Price and give him some decent coin to boot.

True, and while I think the team needs a quality 3rd guard, remember that Price was out half of the games that Wall was out - and the half that he was in - he was brand new to the team and hadn't been "assimilated". I think Price would be a smart re-sign at the vet minimum - and in a smaller role (ie - getting a 3rd guard to go along with him).

[montestewart]

Don't mind Price on short, cheap contract (ideally 1+1 team option at not much more than minimum), as long as he's not considered the primary backup PG. He's pretty quick, plays decent D in stretches, and can get hot with the 3, but he's deep bench material, honestly no great improvement to me over Mack when he was dumped.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Great idea, rocky. Greg Smith is rock solid and better than a lot of lottery-selected veteran bigs.

I feel like there's no way the Rockets let him leave though. They're supposed to be the best of the best when it comes to analytics, so I find it hard to believe they'd let Smith go after the amazing season he had. Obviously, if the Rockets are able to land Howard, then they might not have as much use for Smith anymore, in which case he might become an unrestricted free agent.

It looks like he is Greg Smith is signed on a deal that is not fully guaranteed for this season. I think if they move Thomas Robinson, they have enough cap space for a max deal.

It speaks volumes that they would keep Smith and send Robinson.

They have so much talent. Their analytics are almost too good, if that makes sense. Terrence Jones destroyed D league and Motiejunas showed well, too. The problem is all those guys can't play at the same spot. Chandler Parsons is also very young and is a stud SF/PF. This reminds me of when the Wizards had Webber, Howard, Rasheed then Ben Wallace. Nobody even remembers Larry Stewart from those Wizard teams. He got lost in the talent shuffle.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I've been trying to come up with a consensus for what DeJuan Blair will cost in free agency this year, but haven't had much luck so far. There's absolutely no chance the Spurs re-sign him, or rather, that he re-signs with the Spurs. He has completely fallen out of the rotation, and his agent really pushed for him to be traded at the deadline. He's definitely going to be a free agent, and he'll sign with another team this season where he'll hopefully get more consistent playing time and perhaps more money. But that's my question... how much money is he going to cost?

Our only realistic shot at signing Blair is if he's willing to sign for $2 million/year or less. Due to his unique knee injury situation, and his recent lack of playing time, I think it's posssssible that we could pick him up for about $2 million/year, but that might be wishful thinking.

What do you guys think his value is? Not necessarily what he's worth, but what he's going to get as a free agent this summer.

Good question - keeping in mind that if we sign Webster, the chances are iffy that we'll have enough left of the MLE to afford Blair - but re-signing Webster is no automatic thing if Porter goes 3rd - which is still the most likely option, imo. The other free agent PF that I'd like the Wiz to consider is Brandan Wright - they're kinda like the Abbott & Costello (or Laurel & Hardy) of PF's - 1 is short and stumpy - the other tall and lanky. I suspect Blair goes a little cheaper than Wright - based on how consistent Wright has been. Otoh, Wright is likely seen as someone who can't handle major minutes. Maybe there are lingering questions about Blair's mysterious ACL, but that always seemed hokie to me since he never had a problem with it - as far as I know.

I drove the Blair bus in the past. I have to look at his years in SA a lot closer before I can say what I think he's worth now to the Wizards. His defense and some +/- stuff has not been compelling. Splitter rebounding as well and the Spurs a win away from the title make me see Blair less favorably.

Here is a link to a terrific read on why the Spurs were better without Blair.

http://www.poundingtherock.com/2012/4/1 ... tim-duncan

But OTOH Blair has a filthy good playoff career playoff PER. He had a 20/20 (or was it a 30/20 game?) as a rookie. He was a BEAST who I rated ahead of Blake Griffin in NCAAs (ironically for his rebounds, defense. and winning profile from HS and international junior play). Blair has at time very much looked like the player I said he would be prior to his draft.

Right now I think he's better bigger--he's lost weight. I believe Brandan Wright can supply what the Wizards need maybe better overall. I love Greg Smith's game. But Blair can definitely improve the Wizards in the right capacity at the right price.

[rockymac52]

If Houston doesn't re-sign Greg Smith, probably because they are forced to cut him if they want to sign Howard and Paul, then I think we should jump on that opportunity. The guy has been an absolute monster in limited minutes so far. He'd be a phenomenal backup big man right away, and could potentially develop into our long-term starter. He's insanely efficient on both sides of the ball, and he's a true post player. Seriously, check out his stats, he's been unreal. I think he's under the radar enough that if Houston let him go, we might be able to sign him for $2 million a year.

I think his numbers are solid, but I think characterizing him as "an absolute monster" and "unreal" is overstating things a bit. He played extremely limited minutes for a run-and-gun offense with great floor spacing and the fasted pace in the league. I think that's going to inflate his numbers a bit.

I'm not saying that he isn't an intriguing target. I'm just saying that Houston might not be so concerned about letting him go and he might not be in quite as much demand as you think.

I curious about your comment that he is "insanely efficient on both sides of the ball". I can see his sky high TS% but I don't have access to Synergy. Can you elaborate a bit on his defensive efficiency?

I might have gotten a little carried away with that comment about his defensive abilities. Synergy's defensive numbers aren't the most reliable stat to begin with, but for what it's worth, they had him in the 57th percentile defensively, so slightly above average. He's in the 99th percentile on offense though.

[rockymac52]

Fair enough, Nate. Can't say that I disagree.

I think a lot of this offseason is becoming very clear.

I expect us to draft Porter 3rd overall.
I expect us to re-sign Webster for about $3 million per year (3-4 years total).
I expect us to re-sign Price for $2 million per year or less (or a VERY similar player if not Price).

I think the first two things above are damn near guarantees, and the 3rd is very likely.

1. I don't know what Cleveland does. If Porter is there, he's obviously the pick. If he's not, I have no idea what Ernie does.

2. I may still be in the minority on this, but I think #1 effects #2. I don't think Webster is automatically coming back if Porter is in the mix. You never know. Webster is a UFA, if he looks at the crowded SF position he may decide to go elsewhere regardless of how bad the Wizards may want to keep him. Some team might make him a strong offer. Some team might promise a starting job with less competition. This is definitely not a guarantee if Porter is drafted (and Ariza is not traded). If Porter isn't drafted, then I would certainly expect Webster to be back.

3. This would be a mistake. Status quo at backup PG would be unacceptable to me knowing what we went through last year whenever Wall was not playing. Price had his moments, but mainly as a shooter, not as a facilitator. Too many times the offense went down the tubes with Price running it. I think an upgrade is a priority but I wouldn't be surprised to see Ernie to keep Price and give him some decent coin to boot.

1. True, Cleveland is becoming somewhat of a mystery. But I feel fairly confident that they'll take Noel (or if you believe the recent report, maybe Len). I hope that's the case anyways.

2. I disagree. Webster is crucial to this team's success going forward. He clearly wants to come back, and has publicly stated that he's more than willing to come off the bench if need be. He's a true team player. Also, I think Webster would slide down to SG for most of his minutes, where he's arguably better. Ariza might not be in the team's long-term plans, but I think Webster definitely is, no matter who we draft.

3. I used to be a big Price hater, especially in the first few months of the season where we were painful to watch. But now that the season's over and I can look at his production without bias, I've come around on him. He's not good, by any means. But he's pretty average, and for a backup PG, that's about all we can ask for at the moment. You're right, he was more of a shooter than a distributor, but he wasn't a chucker either. The reality is he was an average offensive player and an average defensive player. He's not going to dramatically improve, and he's not going to win us games, but I don't think he's going to lose us games either (as long as he's the backup). If Wall gets hurt, then we're **** once again, no matter who we sign to be our backup PG. That's the sad reality at the moment. Unless we don't re-sign Webster, and use the MLE on a PG or combo guard, that's the only exception. I'd like to see us draft a PG at 38, let him compete with Price in training camp, and keep both around as insurance and depth. I wouldn't pay Price any more than $2 million a year though, and ideally only for 1 year, with maybe an option in year 2. If for some reason Price demands more money or years than that, then let him walk, and find another below average retread PG to be a stop gap. Even Price would be a stop gap to a certain extent. He might hold his own for now, but in the future, we might look to use our draft pick, MLE, or cap space to address the backup PG spot and make it a "plus" for us.