rockymac52 wrote:Dark Faze wrote:Rocky, Noel shot 60% from the field as a freshmen. How much more efficient is he supposed to be exactly?
The thing is, pretty much every NBA center prospect in puts up numbers like that in college. The difference is that even the guys who end up being low usage guys in the NBA typically have above average usage rates when in college. But Noel is a rare exception who had a below average usage rate in college.
If Noel had an average to above average usage rate in college, it's very likely that his FG% would decrease significantly.
If he can manage to transition to the NBA and still shoot upwards of 50% on low usage, then that's great, and he's going to be a star if he can stay healthy. But if he can't maintain that incredibly high FG% in the NBA, then he's going to be a bust.
There's reason to believe that he can stick to putbacks, dunks, and layups, even on a low usage rate, and post good efficiency stats at the next level. But I'm just skeptical because of his peculiarly low usage rate in college, and furthermore, from watching him it's apparent that he is beyond raw offensively. His ugly free throw stroke and percentage from the line do not bode well for his future ability to develop any semblance of a shot outside of 5 feet. And his incredibly thin frame might pose difficulties offensively at the next level.
I'm not trying to say he's going to be a bust necessarily, but I think there's a real solid possibility of that happening, which might be enough to scare me away from picking him.
Anthony Davis was 6th in usage rate for Kentucky players who played 1,000+ minutes. Consensus #1. Clearly a low usage rate is not an issue when you're talking about a freshman big that's a defensive genius like Davis and Noel. Noel's usage rate probably would have ended up being the same as Davis's.
Kentucky is a drive and kick offense where almost all of their offense is run through slashing guards. Noel's looks early on came from hustle plays and lobs. When he got the ball during the course of a set play, it was as a passer from the top of the key--a role he is very good at.
He's got a great IQ. He's also got a good feel for the ball, blazing quick hands. He's got way better perimeter skills than people realize. He can make entry passes like a perimeter player and handle the ball from the perimeter. Not just with straight line drives either. I've seen videos of him going carrying the ball up court and driving the lane, varying his pace and direction, finishing with dunks and finger rolls.
And he has a workable baby hook and running hook with both hands that can be the foundation for a post game down the line. Towards the end of his season, he was coming out of his shell offensively and demonstrating a variety of skills. Kentucky started working the ball inside to him better and actually running offense through him in the post. His confidence was blooming.
He's got good offensive potential. His low scoring and usage is a result of his short season where it took him a while to settle in and gain confidence, playing for a team with inexperienced guards who were total chuckers, and by design of the Kentucky offense which did not feature the bigs.
And he's got way better offensive potential than Noah and Chandler BTW. Noel actually has potential to create offense for himself, those guys can't. Neither of those guys are anywhere close to the threat off the dribble that Noel is. Noel can blow by any big, he's going to get clean running hooks off against anyone and he will be a huge threat off of face up drives like Dwight. Dwight has a crude post game. Dwight can't shoot from range at all. Dwight scores 20+ PPG with league leading efficiency when healthy. Nobody can stay in front of him and he finishes over everyone that gets caught in his path. People are going to have a devil of a time staying in front of Noel and keeping him out of his launching pad. Big threat to dish off his drives too.
