Expectations for a #8 pick

[HotelVitale]

I've talked about this with some of y'all on different threads but thought I'd take a closer look at this question: historically speaking, what is the expectation or average for a player drafted in the #8 range? As Chip Butty pointed out, the #8 pick itself has a notoriously bad recent history, and the range from 6 to 10 is a fairer way of looking at it.

Historically, the chance of a pick in the 6-10 range being an all-star is around 20%.
http://thesportsquotient.com/nba/2013/0 ... gends-lie/

Thanks for posting this, CB. The itself article is unsatisfying since it has only three categories: Hall of famer, all star, and role player. This would only break things down into less than 1% of NBA players who are HOFers, the maybe 8% of players who have been all-stars, and then the 80% of players who are rotation guys. I'm going for a more specific expectation, so my list works with a scale of one to six.
1. Star (guys who have made All-NBA or three plus all star games or will probably do so in the near future)
2. Well above average starter (guys who are in the top 12 or so at their position in the league)
3. High quality rotation player (guys who may or may not start but are top 120-150 players in the league)
4. Medium quality rotation player (guys who can contribute regularly, decent 5th to 8th men)
5. Low level/fringe rotation players (guys who mostly just fill roster spots, don't get many minutes)
6. Total busts who never earned minutes in the NBA

A few guidelines: I'm only looking at players from the 2008 draft and before, since after then it's too early in a player's career to see how they've turned out. A lot of these players are hard to categorize but I did my best to be objective. I also usually split the difference with players who were really good for a while but then declined (e.g. Chris Kaman or Caron Butler), but I ignored or overlooked serious current injuries (for A Bynum, etc).
So here's the list of the 50 players drafted between 6 and 10, from 2000 until 2008:

1. Steph Curry, Br Roy, A Bynum, Amare, Joe Johnson
2. Br Lopez, J Noah, E Gordon, Rudy Gay, L Deng, Iggy, Nene
3. D Gallinari, DeRozan, B Jennings, Kaman, C Butler, Battier, J Crawford
4. DJ Augustin, Br Wright, Sp Hawes, Randy Foye, M Webster, Ch Frye, Hinrich, TJ Ford, Pryzbilla
5. Jordan Hill, I Diogu, C Villanueva, J Childress, J Hayes, D Wagner, C Wilcox, M Sweetney, E Griffin, Diop, Rodney White, DerMarr Johnson, Ch Mihm, Keyon Dooling, Yi Jianlian,
6. Joe Alexander, Johnny Flynn, P O'Bryant, S Sene, Luke Jackson, R Arajuao

Just to be clear, I'm not trying to bash the value of our pick or anything, just posting to spread some info (and waste some time). Have at it.

[Pharaoh]

So what you're saying is it's most likely we get a low level/fringe rotation player at #8?

I think most people are expecting a high or medium quality rotation player... at least immediately

I'm hoping Joe and his boys nail this pick... but I'm not confident.

Not too long to go now though...

[dVs33]

im hoping for a guy in the 3-4 range personally, but the draft has no guarantees and this year is especially questionable.
We'll see what happens but if anyone is expecting a sure fire all str at 8, they should relax a little.

[rmfc]

3 -- at least

This pick can't be a bust. Pistons can't really afford that.

[Brapman]

When it comes down to it, the NBA roster is comprised of, at most, 10 key guys. The other few players on a roster are "gee, wouldn't it be super if this guy plays really well in the few moments he's going to get because everyone else was injured or sucking" types. You're also looking for three to four core players, including at least one big star, preferably two or three.

We have, right now, maybe 4-6 guys on our roster who can be key guys - all of whom are very young in their careers. Two, perhaps three might turn out to be big stars. Drummond, Monroe should become an elite and an all-star player, respectively. Knight has a chance as well, we'll see - but at least he's a guy we can rightfully count on to be a key guy on our roster. And I'm bullish on Singler and Middleton. Singler has proven that he can be solid rotation player. I think he can be a solid starter on a top team. And I have higher hopes for Middleton. I think he could be special. I also include JJ in that mix. He's a quality NBA player.

If the Pistons add three players this season - by finding at least a rotation player with our #8 pick, and by adding two quality veterans via our cap space, that would give us 7-9 key guys in our rotation. I'm not counting Stuckey, but he also already is a quality rotation player - and I expect he'll be traded either before the season or by the trade-deadline for a good asset (as his expiring contract is very valuable.

As I see it, we've got outstanding core assets going forward, and my hope for this summer is we find 3 more rotation fits via the draft, free agency, and trades. It would be lovely if our draft pick turns into a home run. My guess is that could happen, but it's sort of a shot in the dark. It would also be great if the team finds an asset in the 2nd round and maybe a high upside Euro who we can stash for a couple years.

[ImHeisenberg]

I know a lot of people are high on Middleton. I have to see more from him to form a real opinion. But, the talent it certainly there. Singler is a nice player. I think he could be the seventh or eighth player in the rotation for a really good team.

Looking at the historical value of the 8th pick is fun. But, it's not any kind of exact science, because it's a completely uncontrolled experiment. If the exact same team was choosing at the exact same position year after year, then it would be easier to comprehend, all variable being the same, because the player taken would ideally be drafted with the same set of criteria as the players drafted before him.

But, that isn't the case, and it comes down to being a crap-shoot like every other team drafting outside of top 3.

I understand there's a 5-pronged grading system you have, Vitale. But, any player is basically going to fall into three categories for me; featured player, role player, shouldn't even be on the team. Right now, Detroit is comprised of a lot of players who shouldn't even be on the team.

[Clarity]

The hope is to find someone like a Steph Curry or Brandon Roy who can be a franchise changer.

Elite talent doesnt always go #1 or 2, thats been proven.

[ImHeisenberg]

The hope is to find someone like a Steph Curry or Brandon Roy who can be a franchise changer.

Elite talent doesnt always go #1 or 2, thats been proven.

In a draft like this, it's even more likely that the best players aren't going to be the top three picks. This is really going to come down to talent evaluation and team's ability to project who the player can be in three to five seasons, not who they are today.

[Brapman]

The hope is to find someone like a Steph Curry or Brandon Roy who can be a franchise changer.

Elite talent doesnt always go #1 or 2, thats been proven.

Paul Pierce went #10

[Clarity]

The hope is to find someone like a Steph Curry or Brandon Roy who can be a franchise changer.

Elite talent doesnt always go #1 or 2, thats been proven.

Paul Pierce went #10

The hope is to find someone like a Steph Curry or Brandon Roy who can be a franchise changer.

Elite talent doesnt always go #1 or 2, thats been proven.

In a draft like this, it's even more likely that the best players aren't going to be the top three picks. This is really going to come down to talent evaluation and team's ability to project who the player can be in three to five seasons, not who they are today.

Agree with you both.

[theBigLip]

I expect a starter. Period.

[engelbert321]

I would love to get a 3, wouldn't complain with a 4. (For this draft class).
Overall, at least a 3.

[HotelVitale]

For me the lesson of this is just hope for the best and plan for the worst. If we get a good or very good player that's awesome, but we shouldn't count on getting a decent starter. You want to give the guy you draft the chance to succeed and make sure there's minutes for him if he's good. But you can't somehow force or will a guy in this range to being a good nba player. You do your best evaluation and then it's up to a million other factors to see whether or not the kid's game improves, translates, etc. No way you draft, say, a SF this year and say, he's the 3 of the future for us, no doubt, no question, no back up plan. Gotta hope you get Paul Pierce but be prepared for the more likely outcome that you get Jarvis Hayes or Ike Diogu.

[Sheedpocalypse]

We need a guy that can facilitate and/or score on a good FG%. If this happens, logic dictates this guy would be a starter on this team. So indeed, I expect a starter and core piece to our success. Not sure if we'll get that with this draft...

[DetroitDon15]

I expect a starter. Period.

I agree but I'd like to add someone who can be a constant three point shooter as well.

[ThirdMan]

Really like the OP's idea. I think we need a 3 or higher at one of our guard positions but would settle on a four. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we have a bunch of 5/6s in this draft.

[ImHeisenberg]

be prepared for the more likely outcome that you get Jarvis Hayes or Ike Diogu.

Ouch! Dropping a double reality bomb of Hayes and Diogu on us!

[DetroitDon15]

be prepared for the more likely outcome that you get Jarvis Hayes or Ike Diogu.

Ouch! Dropping a double reality bomb of Hayes and Diogu on us!

I don't see that happening. A lot of good talent this year. I don't look at this as if its the 2000 draft.

[rock digger]

Hopefully we get a fringe starter out of this draft. I just can't see anyone at our spot in our situation being able to be a game-changer for us. This is mainly due to the fact that the people I do think will be integral in the league are all big men, which we're set at.

[princeofpalace]

Joe D has proved himself to be a solid drafter. I think we will be able to get a contributor at #8- not a Drummond or Monroe level talent but a guy who projects to be atleast as good as Brandon Knight, if not better.