Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm not a particularly big fan of Len but if the argument is to take Noels at #3 because of his defense then why not take Len? He has the size/strength/bulk/athleticism to be at least 90% of the defender that Noels is projected to be and he has far greater offensive upside.

I'm not a fan of taking either and prefer Porter than Bennett, but if the argument is to take Noels and be thrilled that he slipped, I just don't get the logic. Noels to me is a name that was high on mock drafts since the start of last season. Before the injury he still didn't seem like a consensus #1 and now he's rehabbing a torn ACL.

I seriously doubt Len ends up close to as good on D as Noel. Noel has a chance to, like Davis, be the great defender of his generation. He's the best shot blocker of his generation. Len is just not nearly as explosive or fluid or tough and aggressive and anticipatory.

I don't think people realize how comfortable Noel was getting just before his injury, how much his level of play was picking up. Had he finished the season and not gotten hurt, he'd be the no brainer #1. The wire to wire top guy. He's really the only blue chipper in the class.

I absolutely agree—he is clearly the most physically talented player in this draft, despite his lack of bulk. His combination of length, height, athleticism, agility, and anticipation is unmatched by any other big man in this draft.

If he's there, and he passes a physical, you have to take him. He's the closest thing to a dominant player in this draft.

How can you ignore Noel's injury? Thirty years ago another great NCAA center from Kentucky had injuries overlooked when he was drafted ahead of MJ. How did Sam Bowie turn out?

I know modern sports medicine takes care of ACLs better than ever, but Noel might be more fragile than RGIII.

I agree Noel's got the physical profile to go one but I think he's too risky. I would pick Oladipo before Noel if Porter is off the board.

Actually, I would trade down with Minnesota because GM Flip might give good other pieces along with the #9 and Derrick Williams. Ridnour or Barea would fit nicely. At 9 Len, McCollum, or Olynyk (an obvious terrific fit) would be great.

[rockymac52]

I wish there was a way for us to acquire a mid to late 1st round pick, so we could draft Lucas Nogueira. This kid looks like the real deal to me. He needs to add some weight to his thin frame, but so does every 20 year old 7 footer. What impresses me is how he's already doing very well in the ACB league, which is typically considered the 2nd best league after the NBA. He had limited minutes, but his per 36 numbers were fantastic, and his offensive efficiency numbers were excellent (Synergy had him at the 99th percentile in the ACB league this season).

He looked very fluid in his workout videos, and he even showcased a nice looking mid-range jumper. I encourage you all to take a quick look at him. He said he's very open to either staying a year or two in Europe to further develop and put on weight, but he'd also be happy to start his development in the NBA next season if the team that drafted him thought that would be best.

I see no reason why he can't develop into a game-changing defensive rim protector with low usage high efficiency on offense in the next few years. I feel just as comfortable with him as a project big man as I do with Noel or Adams, honestly (maybe a slight tier below them, but maybe not).

Nogueira might be my number one sleeper in this draft. I feel fairly confident that in 5 years when we're looking back at this draft, we're all going to be surprised that he went in the late 1st round, because I think he's going to be a top 10 player in this draft, easily. Unfortunately I'm not sure how we realistically can acquire an additional 1st round pick without giving up a valuable asset (maybe the 2014 pick??).

[rockymac52]

Anthony Davis was 6th in usage rate for Kentucky players who played 1,000+ minutes. Consensus #1. Clearly a low usage rate is not an issue when you're talking about a freshman big that's a defensive genius like Davis and Noel. Noel's usage rate probably would have ended up being the same as Davis's.

Kentucky is a drive and kick offense where almost all of their offense is run though slashing guards. Noels looks early on came from hustle plays and lobs. When he got the ball during the course of a set play, it was as a passer from the top of the key--a role he is very good at.

He's got a great IQ. He's also got a good feel for the ball, blazing quick hands. He's got way better perimeter skills than people realize. He can make entry passes like a perimeter player and handle the ball from the perimeter. Not just with straight line drives either. I've seen videos of him going carrying the ball up court and driving the lane, varying his pace and direction, finishing with dunks and finger rolls.

And he has a workable baby hook and running hook with both hands that can be the foundation for a post game down the line. Towards the end of his season, he was coming out of his shell offensively and demonstrating a variety of skills. Kentucky started working the ball inside to him better and actually running offense through him in the post. His confidence was blooming.

He's got good offensive potential. His low scoring and usage is a result of his short season where it took him a while to settle in and gain confidence, playing for a team with inexperienced guards who were total chuckers, and by design of the Kentucky offense which did not feature the bigs.

And he's got way better offensive potential than Noah and Chandler BTW. Noel actually has potential to create offense for himself, those guys can't. Neither of those guys are anywhere close to the threat off the dribble that Noel is. Noel can blow by any bif, he's going to get clean running hooks off against anyone and he will be a huge threat off of face up drives like Dwight. Dwight has a crude post game. Dwight can't shoot from range at all. Dwight scores 20+ PPG with league leading efficiency when healthy. Nobody can stay in front of him and he finishes over everyone that gets caught in his path. People are going to have a devil of a time staying in front of him and keeping him out of his launching pad. Big threat to dish off his drives too.

I'm not really sure how to debate this further with you. You must be seeing something that myself and every other major NBA draft expert and scout are not seeing. Everywhere I read a scouting report of Noel, it's established fairly early on that he is terrible offensively at the moment, and that there's a very legitimate concern that he may never develop into a capable offensive player.

Again, I'm not trying to claim that Noel is going to be a terrible pro, I'm just saying that I have cause for concern. If he fell to the 3rd pick, I'd probably prefer taking him over Porter at the moment, personally. But it's definitely more of a risky pick.

If Noel's offense was as good as you're making it out to be, then not only would he be the consensus, undisputed #1 pick in this draft, but he'd be expected to be a sure-fire star at the next level. He's not, and that's not just because of his ACL injury. These questions were there before he got hurt. He has loads of
potential, don't get me wrong, but he's far from the sure-thing you're making him out to be.

I'm not really trying to win a debate. I was merely reporting my actual observations.

What I'm seeing is what I actually watched in his games. I've also seen his Tilton highlights and video of Kentucky practices where he breaks guys down off the dribble and carries the ball up court on fast breaks and runs plays in the half court from point. I'm not going off of draftnik echo chamber speculation, nor relying purely on numbers. Take my word for it or don't, just understand that I actually saw specific instances of all of the things I mentioned with my own eyes. I know he can do those things because I've seen it.

Noel was the consensus #1 before he got hurt. If he hadn't torn his ACL, he'd be a no brainer #1 by now because he's the only blue chipper in this somewhat underwhelming class. There are never, ever sure things in the draft. Just look at Greg Oden. It's not my intent to say Noel is a sure thing. What I'm saying is he's the biggest talent and best prospect in the class and by a pretty good margin IMO.

Okay, if you're basing your analysis of Noel's offensive talents on videos from high school or Kentucky practices, then we might as well stop. I can show you videos of Shaq dribbling the ball through his legs and shooting 3s in practice, but that doesn't mean anything.

[Ruzious]

I can't argue with that since i have no clue what EFTC is.

Isn't it that yogurt place?

Back in 1973 I went to the Good Beans Cafe on 5th and Calvert. It's an EFTC now, due to all the gentrified yuppies that moved in.

I could use some french gentrified potatoes. Actually, here's a description of EFTC in all of its psychopedagogical grandeur. http://www.eftc-europe.com/ It could be a conspiracy to get drug addicts hooked on yogurt.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I wish there was a way for us to acquire a mid to late 1st round pick, so we could draft Lucas Nogueira. This kid looks like the real deal to me. He needs to add some weight to his thin frame, but so does every 20 year old 7 footer. What impresses me is how he's already doing very well in the ACB league, which is typically considered the 2nd best league after the NBA. He had limited minutes, but his per 36 numbers were fantastic, and his offensive efficiency numbers were excellent (Synergy had him at the 99th percentile in the ACB league this season).

He looked very fluid in his workout videos, and he even showcased a nice looking mid-range jumper. I encourage you all to take a quick look at him. He said he's very open to either staying a year or two in Europe to further develop and put on weight, but he'd also be happy to start his development in the NBA next season if the team that drafted him thought that would be best.

I see no reason why he can't develop into a game-changing defensive rim protector with low usage high efficiency on offense in the next few years. I feel just as comfortable with him as a project big man as I do with Noel or Adams, honestly (maybe a slight tier below them, but maybe not).

Nogueira might be my number one sleeper in this draft. I feel fairly confident that in 5 years when we're looking back at this draft, we're all going to be surprised that he went in the late 1st round, because I think he's going to be a top 10 player in this draft, easily. Unfortunately I'm not sure how we realistically can acquire an additional 1st round pick without giving up a valuable asset (maybe the 2014 pick??).

I have to get up to speed on Nogueira. I don't know diddly about him yet TBH, rockymac52.

My seven-foot sleeper is Zeke Marshall. I will check take a look at how Nogueira compared to Marshall. Ziggy Marsh supposedly has worked out against Steven Adams and performed well.




.

[stevemcqueen1]

I'm not really sure how to debate this further with you. You must be seeing something that myself and every other major NBA draft expert and scout are not seeing. Everywhere I read a scouting report of Noel, it's established fairly early on that he is terrible offensively at the moment, and that there's a very legitimate concern that he may never develop into a capable offensive player.

Again, I'm not trying to claim that Noel is going to be a terrible pro, I'm just saying that I have cause for concern. If he fell to the 3rd pick, I'd probably prefer taking him over Porter at the moment, personally. But it's definitely more of a risky pick.

If Noel's offense was as good as you're making it out to be, then not only would he be the consensus, undisputed #1 pick in this draft, but he'd be expected to be a sure-fire star at the next level. He's not, and that's not just because of his ACL injury. These questions were there before he got hurt. He has loads of
potential, don't get me wrong, but he's far from the sure-thing you're making him out to be.

I'm not really trying to win a debate. I was merely reporting my actual observations.

What I'm seeing is what I actually watched in his games. I've also seen his Tilton highlights and video of Kentucky practices where he breaks guys down off the dribble and carries the ball up court on fast breaks and runs plays in the half court from point. I'm not going off of draftnik echo chamber speculation, nor relying purely on numbers. Take my word for it or don't, just understand that I actually saw specific instances of all of the things I mentioned with my own eyes. I know he can do those things because I've seen it.

Noel was the consensus #1 before he got hurt. If he hadn't torn his ACL, he'd be a no brainer #1 by now because he's the only blue chipper in this somewhat underwhelming class. There are never, ever sure things in the draft. Just look at Greg Oden. It's not my intent to say Noel is a sure thing. What I'm saying is he's the biggest talent and best prospect in the class and by a pretty good margin IMO.

Okay, if you're basing your analysis of Noel's offensive talents on videos from high school or Kentucky practices, then we might as well stop. I can show you videos of Shaq dribbling the ball through his legs and shooting 3s in practice, but that doesn't mean anything.

Straw man. Did you miss the part where I said I actually watched a bunch of his games too? I'm curious, did you? What are you basing your opinions of him off of? You've been off on him these last few pages, making obviously false claims like he wasn't efficient, that he is horrible on offense, etc.

[Dat2U]

There's no reason to believe that Noel won't be a low usage, high efficiency player. He only averaged 7 shots a game as a freshmen on 60% TS and and 59% FG.

There's really nothing at all that suggests that he can't be at least as good as Chandler and Joakim on that end of the court, and he's going to be more productive than those guys offensively based off of being more mobile and getting into the passing lanes due to high steal rate.

He's a phenomenal prospect.

No reason? How about the fact that he had a very low usage rate for an NBA prospect in college, and he still was not very efficient.

I agree that there's no reason to suggest that he CAN'T be as good as Chandler and Noah offensively, but likewise, there's no real reasons to suggest that he IS LIKELY TO be as good as them.

Not to mention the obvious point that even if he one day develops into a low usage, high efficiency player like Noah or Chandler, it's probably going to take several years to get there, and between now and then, he's going to be very bad offensively, hurting the team's success in the short-term. Obviously most big men take some time to develop, and you're always going to need to be prepared to wait patiently while they develop, but still.

I also don't think you can definitively expect Noel to be better than Chanlder and Noah on defense. Yes, there's reason to believe that ONE DAY he can be even better than them on defense, but it would be foolish to blindly assume that he's going to be elite on defense from day one, even more elite than the guy who won Defensive Player of the Year in the NBA last season. He's not a sure thing, even on that side of the ball.

I don't see why Noel couldn't be an efficient low usage big man at the next level. I think his athleticism & length make him an ideal finisher around the basket. He wasn't a poor finisher in college. Too much is being made about his usage, his usage was about right... he doesn't have enough skill to consistently utilize possessions, the key on the NBA level will be what he does with the possessions he gets. I suspect he's mainly going to score off cuts, screens. pick & rolls, offensive rebounds and as a finisher on fast breaks. Noel isn't a guy you put on the block & expect him to post up & score, but neither is Chandler or Noah.

The guy I'd be concerned with is the one that everyone seems to like, Steven Adams. Now Adams was a terrible finisher around the rim. He really struggled with contact and is about as unskilled as one could possibly be on the offensive end. He's got a huge pair of mitts but bobbles a lot of passes. I could see him being a real drag offensively especially since his awareness is still lacking at this stage.

[Dark Faze]

Rocky, Noel shot 60% from the field as a freshmen. How much more efficient is he supposed to be exactly?

The thing is, pretty much every NBA center prospect in puts up numbers like that in college. The difference is that even the guys who end up being low usage guys in the NBA typically have above average usage rates when in college. But Noel is a rare exception who had a below average usage rate in college.

If Noel had an average to above average usage rate in college, it's very likely that his FG% would decrease significantly.

If he can manage to transition to the NBA and still shoot upwards of 50% on low usage, then that's great, and he's going to be a star if he can stay healthy. But if he can't maintain that incredibly high FG% in the NBA, then he's going to be a bust.

There's reason to believe that he can stick to putbacks, dunks, and layups, even on a low usage rate, and post good efficiency stats at the next level. But I'm just skeptical because of his peculiarly low usage rate in college, and furthermore, from watching him it's apparent that he is beyond raw offensively. His ugly free throw stroke and percentage from the line do not bode well for his future ability to develop any semblance of a shot outside of 5 feet. And his incredibly thin frame might pose difficulties offensively at the next level.

I'm not trying to say he's going to be a bust necessarily, but I think there's a real solid possibility of that happening, which might be enough to scare me away from picking him.

Honestly this is one of the oddest arguments I've ever heard. Noel takes smart shots and finishes efficienctly and you're blaming him for it? Do you know who he played with at Kentucky? Bad guards who couldn't get him easy looks.

It's absolutely not a negative that Noel didn't try to force the issue offensively and played within his role.

Low usage high efficiency should scare you with Oladipo, not Noel.

[sfam]

I agree with rocky. I am a Temple supporter, but his age tells me he is never going to break out like Green is right now.

But he doesn't have to break out, Beal is 19, soon to be 20, and he is AWESOME

Depending on who they draft, Temple is just a 3rd, 4th or 5th guard who can cover 3 positions. He is a solid teammate, coachable, and a solid personality in the locker room.

And he is the tight that is hungry to stay in the league. You could ride him the entire season on the bench and not hear a peep. Then put him in and I beat he is ready to compete.

Keeping players like that is how you build out a team in a SA mold.

Having room for players like Temple on your roster is a sign your bench is bereft of talent. This is not a good sign, it's quite the opposite. He's a guy you throw back when trolling the junk pile. THAT is how SA rolls.

[sfam]

I don't think anyone we draft is starting.

But I repeat repeat myself.

They are shooting for a playoff run next year and I think they have their eyes on more then just the first round.

Wall and Beal are their two young players. They will likely run with vets around them.

Whoever they pick is a future investment and this year help at depth.

Good to see that Bennett video. You know, the first time I saw him in a video I was like
Then I saw his lost and not trying on defense and I kind of wrote him off.
I think he will be good. He is a great physical talent. What I question in his head and if or how long it will take for him to put it together. He stands a better chance if he lands on a vet team.

I think Nene and Okafor would be perfect for Bennett's development. They could take him under their wing and get him to see the light on defensive effort. That coupled with Wall's up-tempo game would probably be very exciting to Bennett.

Yeah, as I was typing he needs to go to a vet team, I realized I was kind of making a case for him a little.

Going to a team like the Wizards would be best for him. I just hate to gamble on a players defensive motor. I tend to think its a personality tenacity thing. Not so sure how much you can change those stripes or not. Not when he looks as bad as he does. And he has the asthma thing. He might in part be saving energy/air. The 2nd part is he just a terrible team D fundamentals. The last part was just no effort to go for it.

A 6-7 McGee ? That's still a little to fresh for me. Plus the injuries.

I just think there are better choices for them. More sure well rounded proven winners.

McGee cant even dream of having the offensive game Bennett does. But more to the point being lazy on D at times is very different from being a knucklehead or going around calling yourself fake names. Bennett shows a real IQ for scoring, and really doesn't dawdle with the ball. He doesn't look like a 6-7 McGee at all.

[sfam]

Heres the link to the pod cast that kanye found:
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=9392635

Noel talk starts around the 59 minute mark. Lots of speculation.

Wow, that's some rough talk. If Noel is indeed this much of a bad egg, you gotta believe this all goes public in the very near future. Certainly before the draft.

Wouldn't there have been smoke throughout the season and in the lead up to his first year at Kentucky though? It seems strange that less than 2 weeks before the draft he's suddenly a thug life idiot or something of that ilk. It smacks of pre-draft b.s. I'd love to have some specifics rather than he said/she said before i'd pull him off the board. Hope it's not Marino '83/Sapp '95 revisited.

Yeah, again if there's some truth to that you'd think multiple sources would be reporting it soon.

[Dark Faze]

I think Nene and Okafor would be perfect for Bennett's development. They could take him under their wing and get him to see the light on defensive effort. That coupled with Wall's up-tempo game would probably be very exciting to Bennett.

Yeah, as I was typing he needs to go to a vet team, I realized I was kind of making a case for him a little.

Going to a team like the Wizards would be best for him. I just hate to gamble on a players defensive motor. I tend to think its a personality tenacity thing. Not so sure how much you can change those stripes or not. Not when he looks as bad as he does. And he has the asthma thing. He might in part be saving energy/air. The 2nd part is he just a terrible team D fundamentals. The last part was just no effort to go for it.

A 6-7 McGee ? That's still a little to fresh for me. Plus the injuries.

I just think there are better choices for them. More sure well rounded proven winners.

McGee cant even dream of having the offensive game Bennett does. But more to the point being lazy on D at times is very different from being a knucklehead or going around calling yourself fake names. Bennett shows a real IQ for scoring, and really doesn't dawdle with the ball. He doesn't look like a 6-7 McGee at all.

His defense is worse than McGees. McGee doesn't really give up on plays, he's just too aggressive and not smart defensively so he's either playing the PNR badly or falling for pump fakes.

Bennett will literally just let guys get layups at the rim. Look at the updated draftexpress scouting video. He's awful.

[sfam]

Bennett has all star physical tools because he can s ore. At PF he will be a poor man's Blake Griffin. It depends who is around him. I like other players a LOT more in this draft

A poor man's Blake Griffin who can hit FTs and the three ball is hardly a bad thing to get in a low quality draft.

[Dat2U]

TIER ONE - None

TIER TWO
1. CE Nerlens Noel
2. SF Otto Porter
3. SG Victor Oladipo

TIER THREE
4. FC Kelly Olynyk
5. PF Cody Zeller
6. CE Alex Len

TIER FOUR
7. PG Trey Burke
8. SG Ben McLemore
9. PF Anthony Bennett
10. PG C.J. McCollum
11. CE Gorgui Dieng
12. SF Shabazz Muhammad
13. PG Dennis Schroeder

TIER FIVE
14. GF Jamaal Franklin
15. SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
16. SF Giannis Adetokunbo
17. PG Isaiah Canaan
18. SF Glen Rice Jr.
19. PG Shane Larkin
20. PG Pierre Jackson
21. PG Michael Carter-Williams
22. CE Rudy Gobert
23. SF Sergey Karasev
24. CE Steven Adams

TIER SIX
25. CE Lucas Nogueira
26. CE Jeff Withey
27. SG Erick Green
28. FC Mike Muscala
29. GF Reggie Bullock
30. SG Allen Crabbe
31. SG Ricky Ledo
32. PF Tony Mitchell
33. PG Nate Wolters
34. SG Alex Abrines
35. SF Tony Snell
36. PF Livio Jean-Charles
37. CE Mason Plumlee

[nate33]

Noel is a nice fit for us because our offense is going to be very guard dominant down the line with Wall and Beal being our two best players. So it makes sense for the front court player you pair with them to be someone who doesn't have to get the ball a ton to make a big impact.

He brings something we certainly don't have too--elite rim protection.

Noel will fit in best on a team who has another big men who is strong enough to defend burly post players but skilled enough offensively to handle both post-up and pick-and-pop duties on offense. As luck would have it, the Wizards have two guys that fit that description perfectly: Nene and Seraphin. (Obviously, Seraphin would have to improve, but that's the type of player he projects to be if things go well.)

Over the short, intermediate, and long term, Noel is perfect. He can spend the entire first season rehabbing and getting stronger while the Wizards use most of their spare big man minutes to develop Seraphin. Next year, Okafor is let go and Noel moves into the 3rd big role behind Nene and Seraphin. Hopefully by mid year, he can start challenging one of those guys for starter's minutes. By Year 3, hopefully Noel and Seraphin are starting with Nene playing a limited role off the bench. (Or maybe, by then, we've used cap room to land a better starter than Seraphin.)

[Jay81]

I would love Noel but i dont think this is the right organization to draft him. I dont trust our medical staff with him. If we were anyone else, i would say take him

[Keith Van Horn]

Nets fan here... If you guys draft Noel, would you consider trading Nene for Humphries (bare bones of the trade)? After this season then you would have Hump and Okafor coming off the books... more space to attract other pieces to play with Wall, Beal, and Noel. Thoughts?

[sfam]

Yeah, as I was typing he needs to go to a vet team, I realized I was kind of making a case for him a little.

Going to a team like the Wizards would be best for him. I just hate to gamble on a players defensive motor. I tend to think its a personality tenacity thing. Not so sure how much you can change those stripes or not. Not when he looks as bad as he does. And he has the asthma thing. He might in part be saving energy/air. The 2nd part is he just a terrible team D fundamentals. The last part was just no effort to go for it.

A 6-7 McGee ? That's still a little to fresh for me. Plus the injuries.

I just think there are better choices for them. More sure well rounded proven winners.

McGee cant even dream of having the offensive game Bennett does. But more to the point being lazy on D at times is very different from being a knucklehead or going around calling yourself fake names. Bennett shows a real IQ for scoring, and really doesn't dawdle with the ball. He doesn't look like a 6-7 McGee at all.

His defense is worse than McGees. McGee doesn't really give up on plays, he's just too aggressive and not smart defensively so he's either playing the PNR badly or falling for pump fakes.

Bennett will literally just let guys get layups at the rim. Look at the updated draftexpress scouting video. He's awful.

I've seen it, and still think his offensive impact makes it worth it. Did you check out the first half, per chance, or did you skip directly to the weaknesses? Some 19 year-olds aren't mature yet. Porter is clearly more mature, but that doesn't alone make him a better pick. If we get Bennett to give better effort on D, his talent flat out wins out as a draft choice. And McGee's problem isn't effort, its his BBIQ and the desire to make a highlight reel every play. That to me is probably worse. Bottom line I'm willing to take the risk because I think Bennett brings us a skillset upfront that fills some extreme needs (stretch 4, isolation player, finishing thru contact, ORebs, getting to the FT line in crunch situations).

[fishercob]

I am coming around on Anthony Bennett -- or at least that his offensive potential is really significant. With him it seems all about whatever team who drafts him and their ability to turn into a focused and willing defender. If they can, he could be an allstar. He's not my choice for #3, but if he was the pick I could talk myself into it. Dat would kick and scream, but that would feel like a warm blanket of familiarity.

[sfam]

Nets fan here... If you guys draft Noel, would you consider trading Nene for Humphries (bare bones of the trade)? After this season then you would have Hump and Okafor coming off the books... more space to attract other pieces to play with Wall, Beal, and Noel. Thoughts?

I wouldn't, unless its clear that Nene will never be healthy.