Draft prospects @ 10

[Goldbum]

I have to agree with the sentiment that draft politics are just that and should have very little with who you pick. If your scouts and staff say player A is the best player available @10 who cares if a lot of mock drafts have him listed as a late first round pick.
On the otherhand these same politics can be exploited. Lets say you have whithey rated as the 2nd best center in the draft and you believe he wont get drafted until the late 20s. This gives you an opportunity to trade down get your guy , save money and possibly acquire additional assets.

[Village Idiot]

Not at all surprised to see Len moving up to the top of the board for Cleveland. I've never understood the fascination with Noel, especially after a second major injury to the same body part.

The more I think about it, the more I'm in favor of trading down. Dieng is the guy I'd target but don't feel like we need to be at 10 to get him and might as well move down to acquire another asset or dump Freeland. I'm convinced that him and Myers, along with a veteran like Jermaine O'Neal, will be sufficient both short-term and middle term. Besides Howard there are no above average centers so it is better to use our cap-space to get Tyreke Evans or Andre Iguodala who are potential comparative advantage players and highly versatile.

[JD45]

Read more here:
http://www.csnnw.com/blazers/why-gorgui ... 0-portland

As many of you know, I've been a big Dieng supporter.

23 years old and 230 lbs. His shot blocking is not going to translate that well to the NBA due to lack of weight/strength. A decent pick in the 20s for a backup center. A horrific pick at #10

I hate it when people point out to age. That's the exact same argument people used with Lillard a year ago. It's like nobody learned from that. And I'm not too worried about his offense. The Blazers have plenty of guys who can score the ball. What this team NEEDS BADLY is a good defensive center and I've watched him enough to see that he has those instincts and he has good footwork as well.

Age is a negative for players in the draft. Typically the younger a player is productive, the better he will be. A 19 year old is obviously likely to improve more than a 23 year old. Dieng is 230 lbs. That is very light for an NBA center. He would have trouble holding his position. And since he is 23 and has spent the last 4 years in a major college athletic program, he has had a significant opportunity to physically develop. So 230 lb is likely close to what his frame is capable of carrying.

I don't want him picked at #10 because I think there will be several much better prospects available at that level than Dieng. And they are all prospects. No one knows for sure how well they will turn out. Dieng could be the 2nd coming of Mutombo. But more likely, he is a guy who can give a decent 15 minutes of backup work, and doesn't get a lot bigger or better than he is right now.

[Talent Chaser]

23 years old and 230 lbs. His shot blocking is not going to translate that well to the NBA due to lack of weight/strength. A decent pick in the 20s for a backup center. A horrific pick at #10

I hate it when people point out to age. That's the exact same argument people used with Lillard a year ago. It's like nobody learned from that. And I'm not too worried about his offense. The Blazers have plenty of guys who can score the ball. What this team NEEDS BADLY is a good defensive center and I've watched him enough to see that he has those instincts and he has good footwork as well.

Age is a negative for players in the draft. Typically the younger a player is productive, the better he will be. A 19 year old is obviously likely to improve more than a 23 year old. Dieng is 230 lbs. That is very light for an NBA center. He would have trouble holding his position. And since he is 23 and has spent the last 4 years in a major college athletic program, he has had a significant opportunity to physically develop. So 230 lb is likely close to what his frame is capable of carrying.

I don't want him picked at #10 because I think there will be several much better prospects available at that level than Dieng. And they are all prospects. No one knows for sure how well they will turn out. Dieng could be the 2nd coming of Mutombo. But more likely, he is a guy who can give a decent 15 minutes of backup work, and doesn't get a lot bigger or better than he is right now.

How much do players that leave early improve in the NBA? It rarely happens, most teams don't have the patience to wait 2-3 seasons to see results. I never understood this opinion, drafting guys on potential is a horrible idea considering almost every prospect drafted off potential never reaches their ceiling.

[Butter]

23 years old and 230 lbs. His shot blocking is not going to translate that well to the NBA due to lack of weight/strength. A decent pick in the 20s for a backup center. A horrific pick at #10

I hate it when people point out to age. That's the exact same argument people used with Lillard a year ago. It's like nobody learned from that. And I'm not too worried about his offense. The Blazers have plenty of guys who can score the ball. What this team NEEDS BADLY is a good defensive center and I've watched him enough to see that he has those instincts and he has good footwork as well.

Age is a negative for players in the draft. Typically the younger a player is productive, the better he will be. A 19 year old is obviously likely to improve more than a 23 year old. Dieng is 230 lbs. That is very light for an NBA center. He would have trouble holding his position. And since he is 23 and has spent the last 4 years in a major college athletic program, he has had a significant opportunity to physically develop. So 230 lb is likely close to what his frame is capable of carrying.

I don't want him picked at #10 because I think there will be several much better prospects available at that level than Dieng. And they are all prospects. No one knows for sure how well they will turn out. Dieng could be the 2nd coming of Mutombo. But more likely, he is a guy who can give a decent 15 minutes of backup work, and doesn't get a lot bigger or better than he is right now.

23 is not old according to the average metabolism. When I was 23, I could eat whatever I wanted and not gain a pound. Look at most professional athletes in their mid-20's compared to their early 30's. Check out pictures of Michael Jordan when he came out. In modern times, would he get passed over because he was too skinny?

I think Dieng will fill out, just like most NBA rookies.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

How much do players that leave early improve in the NBA? It rarely happens, most teams don't have the patience to wait 2-3 seasons to see results. I never understood this opinion, drafting guys on potential is a horrible idea considering almost every prospect drafted off potential never reaches their ceiling.

That is why it is called a ceiling and not a guaranteed level of production. It is what they will be if they maximize every god given ability and then some.

There is a statistical distribution. Expecting that every player reach their ceiling is beyond absurd.

[JD45]

I hate it when people point out to age. That's the exact same argument people used with Lillard a year ago. It's like nobody learned from that. And I'm not too worried about his offense. The Blazers have plenty of guys who can score the ball. What this team NEEDS BADLY is a good defensive center and I've watched him enough to see that he has those instincts and he has good footwork as well.

Age is a negative for players in the draft. Typically the younger a player is productive, the better he will be. A 19 year old is obviously likely to improve more than a 23 year old. Dieng is 230 lbs. That is very light for an NBA center. He would have trouble holding his position. And since he is 23 and has spent the last 4 years in a major college athletic program, he has had a significant opportunity to physically develop. So 230 lb is likely close to what his frame is capable of carrying.


I don't want him picked at #10 because I think there will be several much better prospects available at that level than Dieng. And they are all prospects. No one knows for sure how well they will turn out. Dieng could be the 2nd coming of Mutombo. But more likely, he is a guy who can give a decent 15 minutes of backup work, and doesn't get a lot bigger or better than he is right now.

How much do players that leave early improve in the NBA? It rarely happens, most teams don't have the patience to wait 2-3 seasons to see results. I never understood this opinion, drafting guys on potential is a horrible idea considering almost every prospect drafted off potential never reaches their ceiling.

I don't have a comprehensive study at hand, but we can look at a quick example:

2010 Top 10:

Players born in the 90s:
John Wall
Derrick Favors
DeMarcus Cousins
Greg Monroe
Al-Farouq Aminu
Gordon Hayward
Paul George

Players born in the 80s:
Evan Turner
Wesley Johnson
Ekpe Udoh

It looks like 1 of the 7 young players (Aminu) is a bust. 2 of the 3 old players are busts.
Paul George is already a star, and Wall, Cousins and Monroe all have star potential in the young group.
Turner is the only one of the old group who is even an average NBA player. None of htem will be stars.

[DusterBuster]

It seems as if the Trail Blazers have narrowed it down to KCP, Zeller, and Adams @10. Would much rather have Dieng but it doesn't seem likely. Here's how I'd rank them.
1. Zeller
2. Adams
3. KCP

Outside of this boards over the top fascination with Adams, why do people keep suggesting he's one of the Blazers Top picks @ 10? I haven't seen any reports or rumors where this is supposedly the case. Does anyone have any links or tweets for this? Not trying to ask it to be jerky, just honestly curious if there's something I've missed or if it's just wishful thinking.

[JD45]

It seems as if the Trail Blazers have narrowed it down to KCP, Zeller, and Adams @10. Would much rather have Dieng but it doesn't seem likely. Here's how I'd rank them.
1. Zeller
2. Adams
3. KCP

Outside of this boards over the top fascination with Adams, why do people keep suggesting he's one of the Blazers Top picks @ 10? I haven't seen any reports or rumors where this is supposedly the case. Does anyone have any links or tweets for this? Not trying to ask it to be jerky, just honestly curious if there's something I've missed or if it's just wishful thinking.

Adams tweeted he was coming to Portland for a workout, and DraftExpress has him going to the Blazers in their mock draft.

[TBpup]

Adams tweeted he was coming to Portland for a workout, and DraftExpress has him going to the Blazers in their mock draft.

Quite right. Both Draft Express and NBA Draft currently have Adams going to Portland.

[DusterBuster]

Adams tweeted he was coming to Portland for a workout, and DraftExpress has him going to the Blazers in their mock draft.

That's a pretty far leap to go from that to assume he's definitely on the Blazers top choices list. Not that it can't be accurate, but him working out for Portland doesn't mean much considering Portland has worked out a lot of players and mock drafts have had Portland picking doesn't mean a whole lot either considering they've have a ton of players being picked by him.

[Talent Chaser]

Age is a negative for players in the draft. Typically the younger a player is productive, the better he will be. A 19 year old is obviously likely to improve more than a 23 year old. Dieng is 230 lbs. That is very light for an NBA center. He would have trouble holding his position. And since he is 23 and has spent the last 4 years in a major college athletic program, he has had a significant opportunity to physically develop. So 230 lb is likely close to what his frame is capable of carrying.


I don't want him picked at #10 because I think there will be several much better prospects available at that level than Dieng. And they are all prospects. No one knows for sure how well they will turn out. Dieng could be the 2nd coming of Mutombo. But more likely, he is a guy who can give a decent 15 minutes of backup work, and doesn't get a lot bigger or better than he is right now.

How much do players that leave early improve in the NBA? It rarely happens, most teams don't have the patience to wait 2-3 seasons to see results. I never understood this opinion, drafting guys on potential is a horrible idea considering almost every prospect drafted off potential never reaches their ceiling.

I don't have a comprehensive study at hand, but we can look at a quick example:

2010 Top 10:

Players born in the 90s:
John Wall
Derrick Favors
DeMarcus Cousins
Greg Monroe
Al-Farouq Aminu
Gordon Hayward
Paul George

Players born in the 80s:
Evan Turner
Wesley Johnson
Ekpe Udoh

It looks like 1 of the 7 young players (Aminu) is a bust. 2 of the 3 old players are busts.
Paul George is already a star, and Wall, Cousins and Monroe all have star potential in the young group.
Turner is the only one of the old group who is even an average NBA player. None of htem will be stars.

You're not understanding my point. I'm arguing players being drafted off of potential, not age. The only players you listed there that were drafted off of potential were Aminu and Paul George, Aminu is a bust and Paul George is an all-star. All the other players you listed already produced well in college. I doubt Paul George would be an all-star if he didn't have a 3 inch growth spurt when he entered the NBA, that's simply dumb luck. If the Blazers knew Adams was going to grow another 3 inches than I would have no problem with him being picked @ 10.
List of big men who have been drafted off of potential in the lottery over the past 10 years:
Nickoloz Tskitishvili
Yao
Nene
Darko
Dwight Howard
Andries Biedrins
Robert Swift
Andrew Bynum
Saer Sene
Yi Jianlin
Hasheem Thabeet
Cole Aldrich
Ekpe Udoh
Bismack Biyombo
Jan Vesely
Andre Drummond
Meyers Leonard

Every player in this group had the physical tools to be a great big men but most of them didn't pan out.
Bad players: 10
Average players: 4
Great players: 3
All of these players averaged at least 10 ppg in college and no more than 14 ppg which is fairly pedestrian. Look at a player like Adams who averaged 7 ppg and 6 rpg in college, he will easily be the most raw player taken in in the lottery over the past 10 years, maybe 2nd because Vesely had little basketball skill when he was drafted. 7 ppg and 6 rpg were both individually lower than any ppg or rpg posted before entering the nba by the players listed above. Even Drummond averaged 10/8 and he scared many gm's away due to being so raw. Bottom line is history is not on the side of Adams in terms of him being a successful or even a serviceable nba player. This made me re-evaluate my opinion of Adams and I am not on board with the Blazers drafting him anymore. The Blazers need immediate help if they want to keep LA around and they are already committed to Meyers. One project big is enough.

[Jsun947]

NBA Draft has Noel going #3 to the Wiz.

The other day I listened to a interview with a guy who specifically said Washington told him they would definately NOT pick Noel if he fell to #3.

Not looking good for Noel

[Downtown]

So if we're talking about the centers in this draft, how do you guys rate them from NBA ready down being a project ?

I kind of have it at Zeller, Len, Dieng, Whithey, Muscala, Adams, Gobert( although I rated him last more because I really don't know much about him). This isn't to say one is better than the other in the long term, just which one can contribute right away.

So would you go for a higher risk/reward type or a more stable, yet low ceiling one? And I want you to factor in them already having Leonard on board. I'm just curious. And leave out the other option of a trade, or free agent, just speculate on the draft prospects.

Personally, when I look at that list, given that Len will be gone before #10, and possibly Zeller, who really isn't a defensive presence that Olshey said he was looking for, then perhaps a trade down with Utah, or even Atlanta wouldn't be all that bad a decision.

Remember, I'm not talking about who Portland SHOULD take, whether it be a center, shooting, or combo guard, or whatever position, just wondering about the impact a drafted center might have for next season, not beyond.

[DusterBuster]

NBA Draft has Noel going #3 to the Wiz.

The other day I listened to a interview with a guy who specifically said Washington told him they would definately NOT pick Noel if he fell to #3.

Not looking good for Noel

Seems the Wiz have really got their eyes set on a SF, so I'd say the closest thing there is to a lock in this draft is Porter @ 3 if the Wizard's are still holding that pick on draft night. So I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Noel slipped down to the Bobcats.

Then what do the Bobcats do at 4? Take Noel, Oladipo or Bennett? They need scorers, both up front and at SG, so I honestly wouldn't even be surprised to see them skip over Noel who's expected to be a nothing special scorer in the NBA. I think they'd take one of the latter two.

That leaves the Suns at 5. I think this is the absolute lowest Noel drops. With their medical staff and need for a future starting C, I can't see any way they'd let Noel go.

[DusterBuster]

I kind of have it at Zeller, Len, Dieng, Whithey, Muscala, Adams, Gobert( although I rated him last more because I really don't know much about him). This isn't to say one is better than the other in the long term, just which one can contribute right away.

I don't know enough about Whithey and Muscala to really rate them with the other guys, but I'd have it ranked a little differently from least to biggest project.....

Zeller, Dieng, Len, Adams and Gobert

I think Gobert is going to be a pretty big project. Adams will be a Meyers Leonard level project, he'll be able to do a couple things his rookie year, but he's 2 or so years out from being starter material. Len also is pretty raw from what I've read and seen. If given the starting gig right away, I'd expect him to have a very similar year to what Valacunis (the Raps rookie C) had in Torotono. I think Dieng will have a pretty immediate impact as a rotation guy or even a starter. If I had to compare him to anyone in terms of the kind of impact he'd have as a rookie, I'd say Sullinger. Totally different players in terms of style, I know, but I think in terms of what impact they can provide, they'll be similar. Low ceiling for potential, but solid NBA player I think. Then you got Zeller who I think is NBA ready, much like his brother was in Cleveland last year.

[Goldbum]

I'm sure we have all hears Chad Ford saying that 25 teams are selling draft picks and it's hard to get a good deal done when so many people are selling. I feel like that makes this the perfect time to buy. If we are truly in asset acquisition mode we should be looking to buy low. If we can use our capspace, Euro and 2nds(along with trading down) to pick up a couple additional 1sts why not? For example treading #39, #40 and Papa for #13, then trading #10 and #45 for #14 and #21. In a flat draft you can just take whoever fall. Maybe KCP or Shabazz @13, Gobert/Adams or Bebe' @14 and Tony Mitchell or Plumlee @21. Not saying these trades are available just making a round about point to buy low.

[Wizenheimer]

I'm sure we have all hears Chad Ford saying that 25 teams are selling draft picks and it's hard to get a good deal done when so many people are selling. I feel like that makes this the perfect time to buy. If we are truly in asset acquisition mode we should be looking to buy low. If we can use our capspace, Euro and 2nds(along with trading down) to pick up a couple additional 1sts why not? For example treading #39, #40 and Papa for #13, then trading #10 and #45 for #14 and #21. In a flat draft you can just take whoever fall. Maybe KCP or Shabazz @13, Gobert/Adams or Bebe' @14 and Tony Mitchell or Plumlee @21. Not saying these trades are available just making a round about point to buy low.

I don't have a problem with using the 10th pick on a player Portland keeps.

But adding 3 rookies with the 13th, 14th, and 21st picks....after having 5 rookies last season?....yikes!

[Norm2953]

It would be interesting to know how the coaching staff views Meyers Leonard for its
likely he's still a project next season which is a guy who will inconsistent to say the
least.

If they don't view him as the long term answer, they may yet revisit the LA deal with
Cleveland which is why Cleveland keeps talking about Len as their #1 pick for its very
likely Portland views Len as their #1 center prospect in this draft. Making the LA
deal with Cleveland will definitely "move the needle" for Portland for if he struggles,
Portland will have more ping pong balls in the elite 2014 draft. Cleveland would likely
do the deal with Portland for Aldridge as long as the price is right (for them).

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I'm sure we have all hears Chad Ford saying that 25 teams are selling draft picks and it's hard to get a good deal done when so many people are selling. I feel like that makes this the perfect time to buy. If we are truly in asset acquisition mode we should be looking to buy low. If we can use our capspace, Euro and 2nds(along with trading down) to pick up a couple additional 1sts why not? For example treading #39, #40 and Papa for #13, then trading #10 and #45 for #14 and #21. In a flat draft you can just take whoever fall. Maybe KCP or Shabazz @13, Gobert/Adams or Bebe' @14 and Tony Mitchell or Plumlee @21. Not saying these trades are available just making a round about point to buy low.

I don't have a problem with using the 10th pick on a player Portland keeps.

But adding 3 rookies with the 13th, 14th, and 21st picks....after having 5 rookies last season?....yikes!

If they pick the right guys, I would have no problem with this.

In particular, I would love to see a draft where Portland lands McCollum, Dieng and Bullock. I think all three - while perhaps lacking star upside - will be able to contribute from day 1.