We're gonna kick some tail from now on (Optimism thread)

[montestewart]

A tank that brings a high pick in the next draft, allows Beal and Wall to develop, and increases the trade value of Nene, Okafor, and mayb e one other (Ariza, Crawford) without endangering the tank would be ideal. A losing season that somehow also undoes the damage done. That's progress. That's my happy thought.

[doclinkin]

Dusting this off for the offseason. Irrepressible hope in the face of relentless disaster is what keeps us all coming back to this team. Surrender to the bright side.

I figure this is as good a place as any to type out how you envision your preferred pick will fuse with the team we have. Your vision for our team as it will play with whichever pick you like. Like so:

Nerlens Noel:
In the shop with a bent rim and broken spokes, this team has opportunity to allow him to rehab and work his way back into proper form. Here he gets opportunity to study , watch and see where he fits in. The team also has opportunity to continue with the chemistry they developed when playing well together last year. The team gets to be patient with him, his services are not immediately critical to the success of the team.

Not selecting a SF with the pick means Martell re-inks here at a decent price, enjoying his career renaissance. We lose nobody of significance. Okafor continues his strong 2nd half play and Noel while rehabbing gets to absorb the lessons of Okafor's weight room dedication: injuries are prevented with preparation. If every minute NerNo is in the training room he sees Oke already there, he understands the tacit message, this is how a pro behaves. As an undersized PF/C Okafor has had to be a workout demon to remain relatively injury free (needing minor surgery last offseason but coming back into form strong as ever once he worked the rust out).

Thing is Okafor is an ideal role model for a defensive oriented Big like Noel. Hard working, smart, low-key, dedicated, focused and with a similar role on the team: defense, rebounding, garbage points. Noel gets to pick his brain and that of the coaching staff understanding that role while he lurks like a predator, biding his time, regaining and increasing his strength.

Finally unleashed he gets minutes as relief and back-up for Okafor, coming off the bench to feast on back-ups and tired starters. In college his defensive instincts were eyepopping, less for his acumulated stats against lesser players, but more for how those blocks and steals accrued.

On steals he was stopping the man first then interrupting the ball, more than diving into passing lanes. It was a product of man defense and in trapping and disrupting rick and rolls. Slowing the opponents flow whether or not he was effective in snatching the ball. It never left him out position to recover to the paint, just a flash of activity frustrating opposing guards who were trying to find any room to dribble while he threw a blanket over them and beat them with a sock full of soap.

And few of the blocks were goaltends, from what I saw he was more likely to catch the ball on the way up not after the apex of the arc. On blocks He was timing and matching the attacker's body not the release of the ball, catching it as if it were a pass and re-directing it to a teammate, keeping it in play more often than not. He never stopped to admire his handiwork, flex and roar, but was ready for the second bounce in case his block went to the wrong hands. Lat player who consitently did that as a matter of course was the all-time champions' champion Bill Russel. THAT I think is what keeps him at the top of most scouts boards: the evident situational awareness. And that is what will keep him in the league long after his athleticism tapers off, he reads the floor quickly and knows how to have effect.

He reminded me of the best fantasies I ever had of JaVale's effect on court. Not quite as big ( the flattop I think exists to increase his measured height. I think he's no taller than 6'10" but as athletic as any guard with the lateral agility of a jumping spider. Imagine if JaVale had the quickness and instincts and awareness and desire and focus to use his unmatched potential where it would do the most good: with proper defense and good technique. That's the Noel I see.

Play by play:

Enemy PG brings the ball upcourt, John Wall playing off him a little, he's no shooter. Squeak of sneakers behind him, someone shouts 'pick!' but he knew that already. He halfsteps a little quicker to slip the pick, and corner of his eye sees a dark shape swooping in: the rookie coming to trap with him, jump on it. Faster than expected the PG is surrounded. Long fast arms quick feet, both John and 'NoNo' have the veteran swallowed up like a fly in a venus flytrap, what the hell; every place he swings the ball there's a huge hand in the way, turns his head to see who the -- ball is gone. Audience can't figure out if it was Nerlens or Wall who plucked it but it is free and bouncing up court towards home base, not for long: John is there with the speed of a squeezed watermelon seed, up court, pause midair for a showboat pose, dunk it home. Replay that shxt lso motion for th ehome corwd. Oooh sh...

Two three times a game, with the only variation being whether or not Wall leaves it over his shoulder for the trailing Noel who soars like a god of storms to ram it home. Or whether the tipped ball comes from a trap and steal or a blocked shot that eclipses a perfect 'J' and instead wipes it away like a tornado to a tralier home. Ominous as a funnel cloud. Even if the licorice whip lean Noel can't hold position on the megabigs, no need when he can front them and prevent entry on any interior attack. And on rebounds his lean form passes through them to steal bounces out of area.

On offense, no after thought, but alley oops, pick and roll especially now that John's jumper is legit they can't simply sag to recover both, and even a midpost dribble drive. Offensive putbacks slithering past defenders even with good position. To say his offense is raw is to say he has gotten by on athleticism and body control and smarts, has not yet had to put in work to develop a shot. But 60% field goal % suggests he's jsut efficent, doesn't try too much beyond his self-known capabilities.

As he improves he will risk more. Athletic though, I'd love to see him working with a footwork guru like Cassell's master, the Dream. Develop a hook, so he can be effective up close without having to bang.

[doclinkin]

Oh and just a placeholder to say I remain one of the lone hold-outs who expects one or more of Booker, Vesely, Seraphin, and Singleton to improve significantly and surprise naysayers. "Shut up they mouth" as the big Brazilian said.

I'll revisit this probably when I'm back from the mountains. Or after the draft.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Enjoy, doc!

I love mountains scenes and being away from crowds and such.

[payitforward]

Yes -- have fun. Where in the mountains, btw?

[Severn Hoos]

Oh and just a placeholder to say I remain one of the lone hold-outs who expects one or more of Booker, Vesely, Seraphin, and Singleton to improve significantly and surprise naysayers. "Shut up they mouth" as the big Brazilian said.

I'll revisit this probably when I'm back from the mountains. Or after the draft.

doc, I'm a holdout with you - and I'll be even more specific. I continue to cling to this irrational thought that Singleton will become a useful NBA player (starter/6th man). I still (want to) believe that he will finally pair his length and athleticism with a proper understanding of defensive schemes, etc. to be an effective defender at up to 3 positions. And if he can limit his offense to open 3-pointers, transition, and putbacks, he'll be adequate on that side of the ball as well.

I guess I'd put the odds of that happening a bit south of 50/50. But I'm not giving up just yet.

And Booker's already a decent rotational player, so I wouldn't say expect a lot more out of him beyond good health, but I'd like to keep him around if he doesn't cost too much on his second contract.

[dobrojim]

I'm with you 'hoos.

I was /really/ happy in a naive possibly drunk kind of way when we drafted Singleton.

That said, I saw glimmers of sunshine in his rookie year when he was basically thrown to
the wolves by being a starter right away as a rookie.

I can be just as delusional in thinking about the other 3 (KS, JV and Book) as well,
but that usually doesn't last long. Well, Booker is serviceable when he's not hurt
and he's not shooting jumpers and trying to grab rebounds one-handed.

[montestewart]

What? They drafted a one-handed player? What next? This guy does pretty well with one leg. Come on EG, admit you've had your eye on him for a long time.

[Dat2U]

Oh and just a placeholder to say I remain one of the lone hold-outs who expects one or more of Booker, Vesely, Seraphin, and Singleton to improve significantly and surprise naysayers. "Shut up they mouth" as the big Brazilian said.

I'll revisit this probably when I'm back from the mountains. Or after the draft.

Booker... he's a passable rotation player. Terrible P&R defender though and totally injury prone. He is what he is, there's no further upside in my book. Probably should be his last year in DC because I don't see the value in keeping him long term.

Seraphin... possibly the one that could surprise. I've been disappointed by his lack of aggression on the boards.. Who knew the most physical he would get is pounding the table during his initial press conference after the draft. Remember when everyone loved that? He's got a finesse game in a slimmed down Jahidi White frame. Unacceptable. He needs a basketball makeover.

Vesely... he needs a heart transplant. I honestly don't know what he can bring to the table to prevent next year from being his last in the NBA. When you have no discernable skill and a lack of strength to bang down low that usually means your next stop is the NBDL or overseas. His work ethic thus far has been the real disappointment. Instead of working through a tough situation, he basically folded up the tent mentality.

Singleton... I don't think he's savable either. Just like Vesely, he's truly a tweener in the worst way. Doesn't really have the length or strength to play the 4 but has no chance of playing the 3 because of his lack of skill.

[Upper Decker]

Oh and just a placeholder to say I remain one of the lone hold-outs who expects one or more of Booker, Vesely, Seraphin, and Singleton to improve significantly and surprise naysayers. "Shut up they mouth" as the big Brazilian said.

I'll revisit this probably when I'm back from the mountains. Or after the draft.

Booker... he's a passable rotation player. Terrible P&R defender though and totally injury prone. He is what he is, there's no further upside in my book. Probably should be his last year in DC because I don't see the value in keeping him long term.

Seraphin... possibly the one that could surprise. I've been disappointed by his lack of aggression on the boards.. Who knew the most physical he would get is pounding the table during his initial press conference after the draft. Remember when everyone loved that? He's got a finesse game in a slimmed down Jahidi White frame. Unacceptable. He needs a basketball makeover.

Vesely... he needs a heart transplant. I honestly don't know what he can bring to the table to prevent next year from being his last in the NBA. When you have no discernable skill and a lack of strength to bang down low that usually means your next stop is the NBDL or overseas. His work ethic thus far has been the real disappointment. Instead of working through a tough situation, he basically folded up the tent mentality.

Singleton... I don't think he's savable either. Just like Vesely, he's truly a tweener in the worst way. Doesn't really have the length or strength to play the 4 but has no chance of playing the 3 because of his lack of skill.

If possible I'd dump Singleton to a team for a phantom 2nd round pick. I'd rather see his roster spot go to a D-League call up. He literally provides no value, none. I can live with Booker and Seraphin one more season. Vesely will be around, but I think the front office is frustrated and annoyed with him. This will be his last year in DC.

[Nivek]

I largely agree with Dat's assessment of the Ernie Three. Vesely needs to grow some competitiveness -- some "dog" as Glen Consor would put it. I don't have much hope for him, though. I've mentioned this before, but his "similars" in my doppleganger machine didn't offer much hope -- even when I ran them on his rookie year. The best, most hopeful name for his 2nd season was Clifford Rozier; for his rookie season AC Green. But, the other comps for his rookie year were crap.

Seraphin's season, bad as it was, still had some solid comps -- Clifford Robinson, Maurice Taylor, and Reggie Johnson were the best names. Well, Purvis Short and Albert King made the list too, but considering that they were SFs...they aren't very encouraging to me.

Singleton's comps were awful. His best comp (in terms of peak PPA) was DeMarre Carroll, which ain't exactly impressive. I still have a glimmer of hope for him, IF he comes back with as an accurate and prolific 3pt shooter, AND actually becomes the lockup defender he was reputed to be. But I don't think that's going to happen.

I think the team would be foolish to make plans for any of these three to be part of the rotation. If one (or more) steps up, great -- consider it a bonus. But don't plan on it.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Wonder if Vesely likes sisters? Heart transplant? I think he needs to get a hobby. Aikido or Kempo. Any chess players on the Wizards? Vesely could also change his look. Most white dudes cut their hair short, like a brother's. the greats like Dirk, young Nash, and young Manu rocked long hair. A bearded look works for Dirk and for Kevin Love. That's it.

Love went from not-well conditioned and real-young looking to wearing a mature beard. The beach volleyball and nutrition and supplements morphed him into a grown man.

I think cosmetic/superficial outer change can make a person feel better. Vesely with a Mohawk? Vesely with tatoos? Vesely with a beard? Vesely with Rihanna--and him fighting a brother if need be ...

Might all sound crazy but I'm not afraid to at least put it out there. If the guy needs to grow a pair there are ways to make it so.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I came to this thread to read happy and say happy!

I am pretty optimistic about the Wizards this season. The draft will probably help and the team will probably make the playoffs.

The future is definitely brighter barring an injury to Wall.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I largely agree with Dat's assessment of the Ernie Three. Vesely needs to grow some competitiveness -- some "dog" as Glen Consor would put it. I don't have much hope for him, though. I've mentioned this before, but his "similars" in my doppleganger machine didn't offer much hope -- even when I ran them on his rookie year. The best, most hopeful name for his 2nd season was Clifford Rozier; for his rookie season AC Green. But, the other comps for his rookie year were crap.

Seraphin's season, bad as it was, still had some solid comps -- Clifford Robinson, Maurice Taylor, and Reggie Johnson were the best names. Well, Purvis Short and Albert King made the list too, but considering that they were SFs...they aren't very encouraging to me.

Singleton's comps were awful. His best comp (in terms of peak PPA) was DeMarre Carroll, which ain't exactly impressive. I still have a glimmer of hope for him, IF he comes back with as an accurate and prolific 3pt shooter, AND actually becomes the lockup defender he was reputed to be. But I don't think that's going to happen.

I think the team would be foolish to make plans for any of these three to be part of the rotation. If one (or more) steps up, great -- consider it a bonus. But don't plan on it.

Carroll posted a 15.5 PER this past season with Utah. Way better than his prior seasons.

There is hope for Vesely, Seraphin, and Singleton. They may not be in the long term plans but it is possible that any or all have great seasons.

(I posted the Wizards were stupid and the young players' futures were ruined by the Okariza deal. I am happy I was wrong about Wall. I will be glad to be wrong about EG's kids, EG, and Ted Leonsis.)

[AFM]

CCJ, as posted about earlier, all Vesely is missing is tattoos and a mohawk. Like the Birdman

[montestewart]

CCJ, as posted about earlier, all Vesely is missing is tattoos and a mohawk. Like the Birdman

Don't forget the meth habit.

[Knighthonor]

I believe people are forgetting that KS and Singleton both payed well before they were benched early this season for the return of the other starters.

That's when they started to break down. The DNP killed many of the player's skill development IMO. The KS effect is proof of this.

We saw how KS can play.

Also keep in mind lots of time early this season when the wizards were playing without Wall, they would lose in overtime, or by a few points.yeah it was a long losing trail, but people forget how close the wizards came in winning most of those games, without Wall. Other than Wall they didnt have a legit PG. and was trying to run a Wall style offense but without a player like Wall. They had Crawford, but beal wasn't 100% back then.

[montestewart]

I believe people are forgetting that KS and Singleton both payed well before they were benched early this season for the return of the other starters.

That's when they started to break down. The DNP killed many of the player's skill development IMO. The KS effect is proof of this.

We saw how KS can play.

Also keep in mind lots of time early this season when the wizards were playing without Wall, they would lose in overtime, or by a few points.yeah it was a long losing trail, but people forget how close the wizards came in winning most of those games, without Wall. Other than Wall they didnt have a legit PG. and was trying to run a Wall style offense but without a player like Wall. They had Crawford, but beal wasn't 100% back then.

What DNPs? Seraphin played in 79 games. "He played poorly because the coach reduced his minutes" is less likely than "the coach reduced his minutes because he played poorly." As for Singleton, just what do you consider playing well? He was shooting .380 Before the new year (slightly below his FG% for the season) and he was more productive as a reserve than as a starter.

[doclinkin]

Know what? At this point I'm prepared to be happy for any pick we actually select at #3.

I'll drop a happy thoughts version of this post maybe, but I have run through a few iterations of possibilities for that selection and can see all of them working fine, fitting in with the group we have. Fact is we have a pretty decent and solid foundation to add new players, what we need most is depth of talent and future starters. Our short term needs fit well with the talent likely available.

1. Noel. Best talent available, he'd be an ideal understudy for our current bigs, blends the passing and face-up dribble drive game of Nene with the defense and rebounding of Okafor. The fact that he is recuperating makes no major impact on our success next year, and may help us land a decent draft pick. Eventually though if he fulfills his potential he'd be a great frontcourt complement to Wall. His active defense initiates the fast break and his footspeed outpaces most all of his counterparts when he runs the lane to catch up to John for the dump off alley oop. There are two key players you need for strong defense in the NBA: a low-post intimidator who snares loose rebounds and a disruptive perimeter hellion who can disrupt interior passing, bother ballhandlers, break up the smooth function of pick and roll. Noel's top end looks like he can manage to be a hybrid of both roles on defense. Not the beefiest guy in the league, but wiry and wily and too quick for his size.

2. Porter. Our probable pick. His character and personality and heads-up play just fit so well with our core perimeter players. He shoots well enough to keep defenders honest, passes great, makes the smart play, rebounds well enough, takes personal responsibility on defense, manages to find a way to score on the interior, and is young enough and hardworking enough to constantly adjust and improve. A humble guy he'll be easy to root for, we'll still be an under dog but we'll pick our fair share of high caliber wins. If we ever do land a hothead like Boogie Cousins it will be useful to have a solid team of good attitude young players surrounding him to balance out any shenanigans and min-max his bench and locker room demerits against his best effect on court.

3. Bennett. So far in low-lights reels he sucks on defense and puts out a lazy effort, lazy vibe. But for all, that he can't be the worst ever, his squad actually ranked high on the Kenpom rating for defensive efficiency, with him playing out of position as the Center out of necessity. So okay that leaves room for improvement, and if he does improve under a team that stresses defense, then he's clearly one of the most talented players in the draft.

I actually agree with him that he may hit weight rooms and develop a fitness regimen that would allow him to lean up a little and develop the footspeed to play SF at times. And there he'd be all hell of a mismatch on offense, with his perimeter game bolstered by mighty natural strength and athleticism. This squad struggled to find any mismatch on offense other than John's speed, and here we'd add a face-up 3/4 who can stretch defenses and give John room to operate. Even if he was Antawn Jamison out there, we have enough pieces surrounding him that our overall defense might not bottom out. Picture a frontcourt of Okafor, Nene and Bennett. Yes he might get scorched by fast SFs blowing by him, but they'll stall driving into the heart of our solid defensive core. And if he does learn to keep his hands up and feet active and mind in the game, then he'll be a 200% better player just on a minimum of effort alone. Okay asthma affecting fitness and compounding injury concerns may temper our enthusiasm, but if he learns that he needs a constant effort to overcome this hurdle then suddenly his liability becomes a virtue.

Seeing how well he could fit on offense makes me willing to be excited about playing with line-ups and playbooks that feature his best skills.

4. Len. I'm willing to be patient. Love his upside and appreciate how hard he has worked in his short time over here. Still so young and I look at his improvement through that Roy Hibbert lens. True Bigs take longer to develop, but while he may not yet have the confidence in his size and developing strength, in a few games against more loudly touted prospects and opponents he showed up tough and determined, on defense especially. If he suffered a stress fracture from adding too much weight too quickly, okay but medical science has improved leaps and bounds (so to speak) since say Rik Smits had to retire with glass feet. And the kid is still young. No matter what, he has more potential than almost any player in this draft. Real size, athleticism, defensive emphasis, his upside has more up than most.

5. Oladipo. His defensive intensity makes me grin. The rest is gravy. He's another player who has used his time in college well to improve his game and work his weaknesses to death. Freed of the need to attend classes etc I can see him becoming a workout demon, constantly driven to fix wrinkles in the offseason, ballhandling skills, long range shot whatever. And I can see him adding the strength to effectively guard bigger players at that 3spot. His height undersells how long his arms are, he'll surprise a player with his reach in defending the perimeter, with a wingspan closer to the average SF than a 2guard (even if his standing reach is about average there).

With the new contract structure, any players we pick up become a bargain for us, even as a 6th man type, so long as they do earn playing time. But with Beal's reckless playstyle in attacking the interior, I have no doubt that back-up 2 guard and defensive sub is a need position for us. Let him be that ballstopper on defense, putting him on the toughest outside shooter and making them work and get creative to get their shot off.

To say nothing of the dozen iterations of trade down scenariae.

Basically I can see in my inner vision the best potential possible in most of our likely draft picks at 3. Can envision sets and offensive plays and defensive schemes that feature any and all, and basically: it doesn't suck to haAve the 3rd pick in this draft. There's strng signals that say we're in a good position to get better and be happier for it.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Know what? At this point I'm prepared to be happy for any pick we actually select at #3.

+1

I believe draft night will go well.