Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[Jay81]

Ford still has Noel to Cle, Victor O to Orlando.

I want to know why everyone keeps saying bennett has upside? Porter has no upside? What makes Bennett have upside? Is he going to grow more? Is he just more skilled than Porter. They are both about the same age and OP made great improvments last year..to me he has more upside because he works so hard on his game

Analysis: The Wizards continue to be in a strong position at No. 3. The two players they really like -- Porter and UNLV's Anthony Bennett -- are both on the board here. Both are getting looks from the Cavs, but neither is the favorite at this point. There continues to be a pretty strong debate on this one inside the front office, and it might come down to risk aversion for the Wizards. Do they go with more of a sure thing (Porter) or gamble on the guy with more upside (Bennett)?

[rockymac52]

Ford still has Noel to Cle, Victor O to Orlando.

I want to know why everyone keeps saying bennett has upside? Porter has no upside? What makes Bennett have upside? Is he going to grow more? Is he just more skilled than Porter. They are both about the same age and OP made great improvments last year..to me he has more upside because he works so hard on his game

Analysis: The Wizards continue to be in a strong position at No. 3. The two players they really like -- Porter and UNLV's Anthony Bennett -- are both on the board here. Both are getting looks from the Cavs, but neither is the favorite at this point. There continues to be a pretty strong debate on this one inside the front office, and it might come down to risk aversion for the Wizards. Do they go with more of a sure thing (Porter) or gamble on the guy with more upside (Bennett)?

In my honest opinion, one of the main reasons that people think Bennett has a lot of upside is because he's from a mid-major conference. It's all in people's heads. Similarly, Porter is seen as NBA ready but having limited upside because the Georgetown uniform screams solid fundamentals but no huge upside. I dunno, maybe you guys disagree, but I think that has a large role in people's perception. I also think their skin tones play a role, in a similar sense.

I agree with you though, no reason that Porter doesn't have just as much, if not more, upside. This is a kid who didn't play AAU ball in high school, he just trained with his dad in the middle of nowhere, Missouri (I can say that because I went to school in the state lol). I also agree that the fact that he progressed so much from his freshman season to his sophomore season is a very good sign. It means he's a hard worker and he can make a lot of noticeable improvements in just one off-season, as a 19 year old nonetheless! That tells me that he's likely to continue working hard and develop further.

[Nivek]

If Bennett is Carmelo 2.0...well, I was about to say "no thanks" but...

I think Carmelo is one of the more overrated players in the league. Terrific score whose efficiency (and impact) would be better if he used his physical tools to get good shots instead of taking so many difficult shots. And he's not a willing passer, which mutes a major benefit of having a big-time scorer in the lineup (drawing defensive attention and passing to teammates for open shots).

But, Carmelo's reputation -- and salary -- would suggest he's one of the elite players in the game, and he's just not. Unless we're focusing on stuff like points per game and possession usage. Then, yeah. His efficiency is impressive considering his shot selection. I think I could build a good team around him, but I think I could build better teams around other players.

[Dark Faze]

The funny thing about the Porter and Bennett discussion is that people forget Bennett is actually older than Porter. I know people love the fact that Bennett has a lot of great highlights, but statistically Porter was simply better. Freshmen year Porter, Sophmore year Porter, it doesn't even matter. Despite Porter playing in a much much tougher conference as a freshmen his ORTG/DRTG of 120.8 and 89.9 was better than Bennetts 117.6 and 89.3 numbers.

Porters TS% wasn't far behind Bennetts as a freshmen (.58 vs .61)despite being almost exclusively a perimeter player vs Bennetts offense beginning in the post or on the elbow.

I don't know. Porter is younger, more experienced, more mature, is a clear two way player, and statistically speaking there isn't any evidence that Bennett has a higher ceiling offensively. I just don't get the argument.

[pancakes3]

Cleveland's in the same bind that Warshington is in - they've told their fans they're going to the playoffs next year, so they need someone to contribute right away. For that reason, I wouldn't be surprised if they take Otto - he can step in pretty soon and also fills a major need.

Makes sense, and I recall posting something similar in a prior draft thread. It would make Orlando's choice very interesting IMO since they already have Vucevic. Do they take Noel and try to make it work with one of them at PF? Or do they take Bennett or Oladipo to fill another need? Or do they trade down with somebody that has to have Noel?

If I'm Orlando, I jump at the chance to add Noel. He makes up for Vuce's weaknesses, and Vuce makes up for his weaknesses, so I'd think they'd be a great fit with a good coach.

I agree. Vuce is a great rebounder and Noel as a weak side threat shuts the paint down. Both guys are outstanding passers and complement each other very well. As a general basketball fan, it'd be nice to see those two pair up but selfishly, I would hope Noel falls to us.

[rockymac52]

If Bennett is Carmelo 2.0...well, I was about to say "no thanks" but...

I think Carmelo is one of the more overrated players in the league. Terrific score whose efficiency (and impact) would be better if he used his physical tools to get good shots instead of taking so many difficult shots. And he's not a willing passer, which mutes a major benefit of having a big-time scorer in the lineup (drawing defensive attention and passing to teammates for open shots).

But, Carmelo's reputation -- and salary -- would suggest he's one of the elite players in the game, and he's just not. Unless we're focusing on stuff like points per game and possession usage. Then, yeah. His efficiency is impressive considering his shot selection. I think I could build a good team around him, but I think I could build better teams around other players.

Agreed. Obviously Carmelo has that star factor, which is the main reason why he's overrated. He's definitely a very talented player, and a very good player to have on your team, but like you said, if you're going to be paying $20 million a year for a guy, then you could probably do better. However, I'd love to have him on the Wizards, even if it costs $20 million a year.

His usage rates over the years have truly been remarkable. He had a usage rate over 35% this season! That's insane. However, his offensive efficiency ratings are merely above average to good, but not great. I wonder what they would look like if he cut his usage rate down to 25-30% or so.

[Dark Faze]

It's because Melo takes contested shots on the regular.

If he only took open jumpshots and focused on attacking the basket then he could be a potential MVP candidate.

He'll never change though.

[truwizfan4evr]

It's because Melo takes contested shots on the regular.

If he only took open jumpshots and focused on attacking the basket then he could be a potential MVP candidate.

He'll never change though.

I been saying for years Melo was overrated.

[sfam]

Ford still has Noel to Cle, Victor O to Orlando.

I want to know why everyone keeps saying bennett has upside? Porter has no upside? What makes Bennett have upside? Is he going to grow more? Is he just more skilled than Porter. They are both about the same age and OP made great improvments last year..to me he has more upside because he works so hard on his game

Analysis: The Wizards continue to be in a strong position at No. 3. The two players they really like -- Porter and UNLV's Anthony Bennett -- are both on the board here. Both are getting looks from the Cavs, but neither is the favorite at this point. There continues to be a pretty strong debate on this one inside the front office, and it might come down to risk aversion for the Wizards. Do they go with more of a sure thing (Porter) or gamble on the guy with more upside (Bennett)?

In my honest opinion, one of the main reasons that people think Bennett has a lot of upside is because he's from a mid-major conference. It's all in people's heads. Similarly, Porter is seen as NBA ready but having limited upside because the Georgetown uniform screams solid fundamentals but no huge upside. I dunno, maybe you guys disagree, but I think that has a large role in people's perception. I also think their skin tones play a role, in a similar sense.

I agree with you though, no reason that Porter doesn't have just as much, if not more, upside. This is a kid who didn't play AAU ball in high school, he just trained with his dad in the middle of nowhere, Missouri (I can say that because I went to school in the state lol). I also agree that the fact that he progressed so much from his freshman season to his sophomore season is a very good sign. It means he's a hard worker and he can make a lot of noticeable improvements in just one off-season, as a 19 year old nonetheless! That tells me that he's likely to continue working hard and develop further.

Rocky, I honestly have no idea where you're going with this post. Bennett is a far better athlete than Porter and has some elite skills, skills in some cases that are far better than others in this draft. Porter is solid everywhere, but not terrific anywhere. More to the point, he isn't an elite athlete, which does limit his upside. I do agree Porter will continue to work hard and develop. This, I think has far more to do with it than skintone or uniform type. But Gtown is known for having no upside players????? Ewing, Mourning, and the rest didn't have upside????

[Dark Faze]

So my post got jammed into the end of the the last page but I just realized that Bennett is older than Porter. For some reason I never knew that. Porter actually had better ORTG/DRTG in freshmen to freshmen comparisons and the TS% wasn't much different not even considering the difference in position/strength of conference.

I'm not sure if there is even an argument for Bennett having the higher offensive ceiling based off of the numbers I'm looking at now.

[rockymac52]

Ford still has Noel to Cle, Victor O to Orlando.

I want to know why everyone keeps saying bennett has upside? Porter has no upside? What makes Bennett have upside? Is he going to grow more? Is he just more skilled than Porter. They are both about the same age and OP made great improvments last year..to me he has more upside because he works so hard on his game

Analysis: The Wizards continue to be in a strong position at No. 3. The two players they really like -- Porter and UNLV's Anthony Bennett -- are both on the board here. Both are getting looks from the Cavs, but neither is the favorite at this point. There continues to be a pretty strong debate on this one inside the front office, and it might come down to risk aversion for the Wizards. Do they go with more of a sure thing (Porter) or gamble on the guy with more upside (Bennett)?

In my honest opinion, one of the main reasons that people think Bennett has a lot of upside is because he's from a mid-major conference. It's all in people's heads. Similarly, Porter is seen as NBA ready but having limited upside because the Georgetown uniform screams solid fundamentals but no huge upside. I dunno, maybe you guys disagree, but I think that has a large role in people's perception. I also think their skin tones play a role, in a similar sense.

I agree with you though, no reason that Porter doesn't have just as much, if not more, upside. This is a kid who didn't play AAU ball in high school, he just trained with his dad in the middle of nowhere, Missouri (I can say that because I went to school in the state lol). I also agree that the fact that he progressed so much from his freshman season to his sophomore season is a very good sign. It means he's a hard worker and he can make a lot of noticeable improvements in just one off-season, as a 19 year old nonetheless! That tells me that he's likely to continue working hard and develop further.

Rocky, I honestly have no idea where you're going with this post. Bennett is a far better athlete than Porter and has some elite skills, skills in some cases that are far better than others in this draft. Porter is solid everywhere, but not terrific anywhere. More to the point, he isn't an elite athlete, which does limit his upside. I do agree Porter will continue to work hard and develop. This, I think has far more to do with it than skintone or uniform type. But Gtown is known for having no upside players????? Ewing, Mourning, and the rest didn't have upside????

Hahaha when I posted that I knew that a few of you guys were going to think I was crazy and/or not understand where I'm coming from at all. I'm not saying there isn't some truth to it, I just think people discriminate or overrate guys quite a bit based on where they played in college. Obviously Georgetown has had its fair share of elite NBA players, I wasn't trying to say otherwise, I just think that the colors and pattern of their jersey give off a more boring, slow and steady wins the race type feel.

I was saying something similar a few weeks ago about why people seem to hate on Len so hard. I think it's in large part due to the fact that he plays for Maryland. We don't associate that with success at the NBA level these days. If Len and Noel switched colleges but still put up the exact same stats, I think everybody would be on board the Len train. I think Noel would still be fairly popular, because his hair looks cool and people love to overrate guys just because they have unique hair (see: Shumpert, Iman). But I think Len would be perceived as a dominant force. Kinda like if Enes Kanter ever got to play at Kentucky. A lot of you guys are very biased with stuff like this and you don't even realize it. Just my two cents, you don't have to agree with me on this one haha.

[rockymac52]

So my post got jammed into the end of the the last page but I just realized that Bennett is older than Porter. For some reason I never knew that. Porter actually had better ORTG/DRTG in freshmen to freshmen comparisons and the TS% wasn't much different not even considering the difference in position/strength of conference.

I'm not sure if there is even an argument for Bennett having the higher offensive ceiling based off of the numbers I'm looking at now.

Not to mention that Porter did that in the best conference in America (maybe not this last year, but still, it's the Big East), while Bennett got to play against weaker competition (his conference was pretty good for a mid-major, to be fair).

[truwizfan4evr]

Espn mock draft video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqgDtXd73M8

[sfam]

Hahaha when I posted that I knew that a few of you guys were going to think I was crazy and/or not understand where I'm coming from at all. I'm not saying there isn't some truth to it, I just think people discriminate or overrate guys quite a bit based on where they played in college. Obviously Georgetown has had its fair share of elite NBA players, I wasn't trying to say otherwise, I just think that the colors and pattern of their jersey give off a more boring, slow and steady wins the race type feel.

I was saying something similar a few weeks ago about why people seem to hate on Len so hard. I think it's in large part due to the fact that he plays for Maryland. We don't associate that with success at the NBA level these days. If Len and Noel switched colleges but still put up the exact same stats, I think everybody would be on board the Len train. I think Noel would still be fairly popular, because his hair looks cool and people love to overrate guys just because they have unique hair (see: Shumpert, Iman). But I think Len would be perceived as a dominant force. Kinda like if Enes Kanter ever got to play at Kentucky. A lot of you guys are very biased with stuff like this and you don't even realize it. Just my two cents, you don't have to agree with me on this one haha.

I do agree that Maryland may have the ugliest uniform ever worn by a basketball team, and that most would freely discriminate against them and their players because of it. I've certainly stopped watching them because of this (well, and because of a coaching change, but details...).

EDIT: No I take that back. Their football jersey is the ugliest ever. Just the coaching change then I guess...

[Nivek]

Rocky: I can categorically guarantee that uniform design has nothing to do with a player's rating in YODA.

[rockymac52]

Oladipo is a test of my adherence to the best player available philosophy. I think he's the best prospect in the draft. But he doesn't fit an immediate or pending need. The Wizards need help in the front court right away. They're going to need a SF in the next year or two. They need a third guard and/or a backup PG.

They really don't need a SG, unless they have a pure PG as their backup PG. In which case, they could use a "pure" SG to backup Beal. BUT, that's likely to be 12-14 minutes per game, which wouldn't be much playing time for a third overall pick in the draft, or a guy with the ability Oladipo possesses. Which means you're then kind of forced to play 3-guard lineups to get both Beal and Oladipo playing time, which isn't ideal because somebody has to play out of position and against an opponent with a significant size advantage.

Much as I like Oladipo, I don't think he's "the guy" for the Wizards. To me, the next best prospect is Zeller, but apparently almost no one else seems to think that. I'd try to trade the 3 for a pick in the range where I could get Zeller plus something else useful. Or pick Zeller at 3. Or pick Porter, if he's still there. I'm glad there's still some time to the draft.

I'm right there with you on this one. I think McLemore might enter the conversation as well, at least for me.

Here's what's really making me wonder... let's say we draft Porter, like most of us expect will be the case. Then let's say we re-sign Webster, and we keep Ariza for the time being. The only way to make that work is to have Webster get a good portion of his minutes at SG, and maybe a few minutes at PF for Ariza or Porter here and there. But the key is Webster at SG. I think history has proven that Webster is a very capable SG. But now we're looking at something like 30 MPG for Beal, 22 MPG for Webster, 22 MPG for Ariza, and 22 MPG for Porter. Give or take a few minutes for whichever guy's got the hot hand or has earned the playing time.

What I don't get, is why most of us are perfectly fine with that situation, especially if we trade Ariza at the deadline or let him expire and leave next year. BUT THEN at the same time, it's completely out of the question to even consider drafting Oladipo or McLemore because they're SGs, and we already have a SG. Ummmmm... hypocritical much?

Simply sub in McLemore/Oladipo for Porter's 22 MPG, except they're the primary backup SG playing about 5 MPG at SF, with Webster playing mostly SF now instead of SG. It works. So why is that so ridiculous? Just because in a perfect world, long-term we'd like to have Wall/Beal/Porter all starting and playing their ideal position? I dunno, I'm not sold. I say get the best player and work out the minutes afterwards. Make a trade later if you have to. Just get the best player.

But, alas, the problem this year is that for most of us, there isn't that much of a difference in talent amongst the top 6 picks or so, so it's just so convenient to pick based on traditional need instead. I'm torn. Very torn.

[Ruzious]

Rocky, it's a different situation. We don't have a building block 3, and we do have a building block 2.

Having said that - if the Wiz pick Ola (they don't have the guts and/or brains to even consider it, imo), I'd be fine with that.

[rockymac52]

Rocky, it's a different situation. We don't have a building block 3, and we do have a building block 2.

Having said that - if the Wiz pick Ola (they don't have the guts and/or brains to even consider it, imo), I'd be fine with that.

Right, I know we aren't even considering it, which kinda annoys me. And yeah, I understand that we have a true young core piece with Beal at the 2, so I get why it doesn't quite pass the eye test so to speak, but what's so different about drafting Porter and sliding Webster down to the 2?

Why is drafting a SF and then converting Webster to a SG acceptable, but drafting a SG and keeping Webster at Sf not okay?

[verbal8]

Why is drafting a SF and then converting Webster to a SG acceptable, but drafting a SG and keeping Webster at Sf not okay?

Because Beal is a core piece and Webster is not. In factor Webster is not even under contract.

[tontoz]

I'm right there with you on this one. I think McLemore might enter the conversation as well, at least for me.

Here's what's really making me wonder... let's say we draft Porter, like most of us expect will be the case. Then let's say we re-sign Webster, and we keep Ariza for the time being. The only way to make that work is to have Webster get a good portion of his minutes at SG, and maybe a few minutes at PF for Ariza or Porter here and there. But the key is Webster at SG. I think history has proven that Webster is a very capable SG. But now we're looking at something like 30 MPG for Beal, 22 MPG for Webster, 22 MPG for Ariza, and 22 MPG for Porter. Give or take a few minutes for whichever guy's got the hot hand or has earned the playing time.

What I don't get, is why most of us are perfectly fine with that situation, especially if we trade Ariza at the deadline or let him expire and leave next year. BUT THEN at the same time, it's completely out of the question to even consider drafting Oladipo or McLemore because they're SGs, and we already have a SG. Ummmmm... hypocritical much?

I don't follow this line of reasoning at all. The logjam at the 3 would last only a year and that is assuming we don't trade Ariza and resign Webster.

On the other hand Beal is clearly the long term starter at the 2, Dipo's best (or only) position. The problem there would go on for years.