Dark Faze wrote:The Consiglieri wrote:sfam wrote:
Fair enough. And I fully admit I could be wrong.
Maybe I am reaching but I'm willing to take the chance, because unlike some here, I don't think we are a role player or two away from being a contender. Wall and Beal plus a bunch of role players is not gonna get it done. I think we need another real impact player up-front before we can start tweaking and consolidating our roster for a real run. Yes we need to get real talent on the bench (temple doesn't qualify), but we need real talent in our core as well. Maybe Porter ends up at all-star level, but I doubt it - I still agree he would be a fine addition to our roster though - but we would still need to find another impact player. I just think with the #3 pick that's what we should be striving for - lets go for gold even if its more risky- lets not settle for bronze. To me, Bennett and Noel have the best chance of getting to that level. Right now I like Bennett a bit more than Noel because he's good in exactly where we're weak.
We can't be okay w/just getting "solid" unless that's the best this draft holds in terms of potential and talent. IF there are some potential players with higher ceilings, a Len, a Bennett, an Oladipo, a Noel, then you must take them. If you believe Porter belongs in that tier, or even higher (Pelton thinks so), then okay, but if you are like most scouts, and evaluators and view Bennett as a future above average to good player, and no better, than Bennett, or someone else HAS to be the pick.
I don't want Porter because I think he's just "solid". I like him because I flat out think he's better than Bennett. Bennetts ceiling isn't much higher than Porters imo while Porters defensive floor is much much higher than Bennetts.
I could end up being wrong, but I don't like Porter just because of low bust potential, but because I like him to be better than Bennett at the end of the day.
As for Cavs being in the same place as the Wizards in having guaranteed a playoff berth--our advantage is that if we're healthy we can make the playoffs even if we didn't have a pick this year, so if Noel is there we can make the playoffs and make the best longterm move.
The Cavs on the otherhand need this pick to produce immediately to make good on their promise.
Hence the "...If you believe Porter belongs in that tier, or is even better than okay..." I'm fine with people supporting Porter if they think Porter is the superior prospect (Pelton has said he views him as the 1B of the draft).
I disagree entirely on offensive potential, I believe Bennett is a significantly better offensive prospect than Porter. I don't think it's really all that close, maybe even remotely close. Looking at them, Porter seems like a solid college player in terms of offense, while a healthy Bennett was a dynamo as a scorer, and showed just as impressive collection of skills in games outside of conference against quality opponents, as he did in conference against both the weaker and the stronger opponents. My only issues with Bennett on the offensive end involve his back to the basket post game, his height/standing reach, though he does have a tremendous wing span supposedly, and his injury issues which like Noel, have been suspiciously consistent. Those are issues, but as an offensive weapon he is several tiers above Porter, and most of the players in this draft. I don't think you're giving him anywhere near enough credit there, while giving Porter a ton of breaks. Porter doesn't show much athleticism at all, generally plays below the rim, can't seem to take people off the dribble and to the rack. What I love about him is his decision making, his BBIQ, his passing, his ability to fill the stat line, rebound, and work on his game, though I do not buy the improvement exactly in terms of his 3 point shooting (I do believe he's worked on it and improved it substantially, but I also don't believe he'll be that good of a 3 point shooter going forward, there's little evidence to support it, and I view it as an outlier season, though I do believe he won't regress back to 22%, I just expect him to be somewhere in the 30's).
Probably my biggest issue with critiques of Bennett, is that more often than not, critics are poking every hole in him, legit, and sometimes not so legit, while buffing out all the flaws in their preferred draft target.
We need to be honest here and fair. Consistent. I will own that Bennett's D is crap, and not acceptable, and I'll own that that twitter remark, while not a character indictment, or something horrible, is just a stupid thing to say when you're marketing yourself for the draft. You have to be smarter than that. If you're on twitter and going to say something like that, than you need to get off of twitter. GM's and scouts are looking for any reason to find a flaw or a potential issue with a prospect, they need to make the right pick with an asset that valuable. If there's already some worry about work habits and dedication because of the sloth on D, what are scouts gonna think about you sleeping in till the afternoon? Nothing good.
Just got to be smarter, and even as a Bennett fan, I hated that. It is making a mountain out of a molehill to some extent, but it's also not a non-issue. I want guys that are either well spoken or brilliant, or just have good judgment, or both. I don't want my prospect saying nonsense like that. It doesn't speak well of him to do that, no matter how minor it is. Be a professional, if any of us are going to interviews, we're not going to be talking about just rolling out of bed
In my work, Carmelo doesn't have dominant seasons at all. He's had several very good seasons, but he's actually been fairly consistent, if I recall correctly. That shows up in PER where his career average is 20.8, his peak (this season) was 24.8 and he had 7 straight seasons between 19.0 and 22.0. I don't have my spreadsheet in front of me, but I would expect to see something similar in PPA (my stat).