The Lebron Thread (Pt. 3)

[TheChosen618]

Even before this season, I already had 2012 Lebron in my top 5 peaks.

I would probably put 2013 Lebron in the top 3.

My top 5 peaks in no order is...

91 Jordan
67 Wilt
00 Shaq
94 Hakeem
13 Lebron

I would probably put Lebron above Shaq honestly. Shaq's FT shooting just really hurts his team and that's why his TS% is comparable to Kobe's instead of Jordan's/Magic's. His FG% was amazingly high, but his FT% just brings it down completely.

Does anyone have Lebron's TS% for each series in the 2013 playoffs?

EDIT - Nevermind, found them...

vs. Bucks - 24.5 ppg, 67.9% TS%
vs. Bulls - 23.6 ppg, 57.3% TS%
vs. Pacers - 29.0 ppg, 60.9% TS%

Spurs one should be updated tomorrow.

[therealbig3]

Well, again, TS% isn't everything...yes, Shaq misses a lot of FTs, but he also puts an entire front court in foul trouble, he also demands a ridiculous amount of defensive attention that opens things up for everyone else, and he was an excellent passer from the post. He always upped his defensive intensity and effort on the glass, which is why he had such huge rebounding numbers in the playoffs, and why the Lakers as a team played much better defense.

00 Shaq's offensive impact goes way beyond merely his TS%, which is why he is one of the 5-7 best offensive players of all time...the thing is, the same applies to LeBron, which is why he's one of the 5-7 best offensive players of all time as well.

[therealbig3]

LeBron's scoring against the Spurs: 25.3 ppg, 52.9% TS

[Dipper 13]

Overall, I would have him right after those guys, and he's clearly more balanced two-ways than any of those three, who all lean offense.

I admit my research on Wilt (and that era) is still a work in progress, so don't take anything I say as my locked/definite opinion. A dramatic offensive shift out of the negative would first have to be scaled considering improving a negative is not quite up to improving a positive (though obviously this is a HUGE shift, so that's only something to apply as a formality). I think its clear that Wilt was the biggest driving force there, I'd credit him with ~6 points in that setting (which may have been slightly beneficial). If we put that on the SRS scale, and try to consider Wilt as he was rather than just Wilt in that one setting, I'd peg him as right around a +4-5 (offense only), and then roughly the same on the defensive end, about +8.0 overall.

Yes I would agree with the balance between offense & defense. I am not super confident in the pre-Wilt team estimate though due to the lack of complete box scores, perhaps the pace is a bit inflated. Not the points scored, but the rebounds, assists, shot attempts, and personal fouls. It may be questionable, but then again so were the estimates that were presented on this forum to mercilessly trash him. The estimate below also shows a big impact offensively with the Warriors, and how they completely tanked after the trade.


1965 Warriors (Entire Season): 87.7 ORtg (-5.4)

Without Wilt: 81.0 ORtg (-12.1)

Difference: 6.7





Also I believe Bill Russell deserves mention in the greatest peaks discussion. Based on the available (limited) video footage, he was 7% in shot blocking percentage and roughly 36% in defensive rebounding percentage. To be that dominant in either one of those areas is something, but to be that dominant in both? Especially considering shot blocking tends to take you out of proper rebounding position.

[GSP]

:D

Sideshowbob whats your final Srs rating for Lebron this year or do u still need to think about it?

+7.0 Offense, +3.0 Defense, +10.0 Overall

Im very excited for next season. We will see the best Lebron to date IMO. Thanks to Sideshowbob and all the other Lebron fans for a great season, very informative thread,

As it is I have 13 Lebron the same level as 91 Mj and 00 Shaq. All at 9.5 Srs.

Mj - 7 off and 2.5 def
Shaq - 6 off and 3.5 def
Lebron - 6.5 off and 3 def

Cool, we're in the same ballpark. I'd go

Jordan 90-92 +7.0 Offense, +2.0 Defense, +9.0 Overall
Shaq 00-01 +6.0 Offense, +3.0 Defense, +9.0 Overall

I don't think its unreasonable for 13 James to fall at that level or even slightly under, but I still have him with the edge.

Agreed. Im still looking at 13 overall myself. Btw I saw your survey project for Lebron and mine didnt differ much from yours there either.

Ftr

2004 +0.0 [ +1.0 off | -1.0 def ]
2005 +3.5 [ +3.0 off | +0.5 def ]
2006 +5.0 [ +4.0 off | +1.0 def ]
2007 +4.0 [ +3.0 off | +1.0 def ]
2008 +5.5 [ +4.5 off | +1.0 def ]
2009 +8.5 [ +6.5 off | +2.0 def ]
2010 +9.0 [ +7.0 off | +2.0 def ]
2011 +7.0 [ +5.0 off | +2.0 def ]
2012 +7.5 [ +5.0 off | +2.5 def ]
2013 +9.5 [ +6.5 off | +3.0 def ]

2013 subject to change, could be 6.0 off, he was unreal during the streak but he couldnt maintain such a high offensive performance. His D was consistent throughout but IMO peak Mj (90-92) was better offensively than 13 Lebron.

[ThatsWhatIShved]

How can Lebron be a +SRS this year when his team played better without? The 96 Bulls record was in jeporady when Lebron didn't put on a Heat jersey. It seems that recency and winning bias is in full effect. Anyway, I have him

04: -5.00
05 : -3.5
05: -1.0
07: -4
08: 1.00
09: 3.00
10: 4.5
11: -2.00
12: 0
13: -.75

[JulesWinnfield]

I heard a stat I couldn't believe this morning

For only the 2nd time in history, someone averaged 25+ pts 10+rebs and 7+ast in a finals series. Lebron 2012, and Lebron 2013. He's joining lists he was already on by himself.

[SideshowBob]

Overall, I would have him right after those guys, and he's clearly more balanced two-ways than any of those three, who all lean offense.

I admit my research on Wilt (and that era) is still a work in progress, so don't take anything I say as my locked/definite opinion. A dramatic offensive shift out of the negative would first have to be scaled considering improving a negative is not quite up to improving a positive (though obviously this is a HUGE shift, so that's only something to apply as a formality). I think its clear that Wilt was the biggest driving force there, I'd credit him with ~6 points in that setting (which may have been slightly beneficial). If we put that on the SRS scale, and try to consider Wilt as he was rather than just Wilt in that one setting, I'd peg him as right around a +4-5 (offense only), and then roughly the same on the defensive end, about +8.0 overall.

Yes I would agree with the balance between offense & defense. I am not super confident in the pre-Wilt team estimate though due to the lack of complete box scores, perhaps the pace is a bit inflated. Not the points scored, but the rebounds, assists, shot attempts, and personal fouls. It may be questionable, but then again so were the estimates that were presented on this forum to mercilessly trash him. The estimate below also shows a big impact offensively with the Warriors, and how they completely tanked after the trade.


1965 Warriors (Entire Season): 87.7 ORtg (-5.4)

Without Wilt: 81.0 ORtg (-12.1)

Difference: 6.7

I've got 60/62/64/65/66/68 as all only just about a notch down from 67 purely offensively.

Also I believe Bill Russell deserves mention in the greatest peaks discussion. Based on the available (limited) video footage, he was 7% in shot blocking percentage and roughly 36% in defensive rebounding percentage. To be that dominant in either one of those areas is something, but to be that dominant in both? Especially considering shot blocking tends to take you out of proper rebounding position.

Agreed, I think he's right around the same level, only all of his positive impact comes from defense, and there's really no one in NBA history that's in that stratosphere. Though I'd bet on Thurmond being the guy that's coming closest.

[SideshowBob]

Agreed. Im still looking at 13 overall myself. Btw I saw your survey project for Lebron and mine didnt differ much from yours there either.

Ftr

2004 +0.0 [ +1.0 off | -1.0 def ]
2005 +3.5 [ +3.0 off | +0.5 def ]
2006 +5.0 [ +4.0 off | +1.0 def ]
2007 +4.0 [ +3.0 off | +1.0 def ]
2008 +5.5 [ +4.5 off | +1.0 def ]
2009 +8.5 [ +6.5 off | +2.0 def ]
2010 +9.0 [ +7.0 off | +2.0 def ]
2011 +7.0 [ +5.0 off | +2.0 def ]
2012 +7.5 [ +5.0 off | +2.5 def ]
2013 +9.5 [ +6.5 off | +3.0 def ]

2013 subject to change, could be 6.0 off, he was unreal during the streak but he couldnt maintain such a high offensive performance. His D was consistent throughout but IMO peak Mj (90-92) was better offensively than 13 Lebron.

Yeah, the only difference would be that I've got his earlier seasons as slightly lower on offense but slightly higher on defense.

[PCProductions]

Agreed. Im still looking at 13 overall myself. Btw I saw your survey project for Lebron and mine didnt differ much from yours there either.

Ftr

2004 +0.0 [ +1.0 off | -1.0 def ]
2005 +3.5 [ +3.0 off | +0.5 def ]
2006 +5.0 [ +4.0 off | +1.0 def ]
2007 +4.0 [ +3.0 off | +1.0 def ]
2008 +5.5 [ +4.5 off | +1.0 def ]
2009 +8.5 [ +6.5 off | +2.0 def ]
2010 +9.0 [ +7.0 off | +2.0 def ]
2011 +7.0 [ +5.0 off | +2.0 def ]
2012 +7.5 [ +5.0 off | +2.5 def ]
2013 +9.5 [ +6.5 off | +3.0 def ]

2013 subject to change, could be 6.0 off, he was unreal during the streak but he couldnt maintain such a high offensive performance. His D was consistent throughout but IMO peak Mj (90-92) was better offensively than 13 Lebron.

Yeah, the only difference would be that I've got his earlier seasons as slightly lower on offense but slightly higher on defense.

And shouldn't it be said that 2007 was at least +.5 on DEF change from the first three years?

[SideshowBob]

Elimination Games (15 G)

Code: Select all

MP    PTS    ORB    DRB    TRB    AST    BLK    STL    TO    TS%    GmSco
45.7  31.9   2.0    8.2    10.2   6.4    0.6    1.4    4.6  .565    23.6

Since 2008 (12 G)

Code: Select all

MP    PTS    ORB    DRB    TRB    AST    BLK    STL    TO    TS%    GmSco
45.3  33.1   2.3    8.5    10.7   6.6    0.7    1.5    4.5  .592    26.0

Game 7 (5 G)

Code: Select all

MP    PTS    ORB    DRB    TRB    AST    BLK    STL    TO    TS%    GmSco
45.3  34.4   2.2    6.8    9.0    3.6    0.4    1.6    2.4  .598    26.5

In Miami (3 G)

Code: Select all

MP    PTS    ORB    DRB    TRB    AST    BLK    STL    TO    TS%    GmSco
44.5  33.3   2.3    8.3    10.7   3.3    0.7    1.7    2.3  .633    28.0

[SideshowBob]

Spoiler:

Agreed. Im still looking at 13 overall myself. Btw I saw your survey project for Lebron and mine didnt differ much from yours there either.

Ftr

2004 +0.0 [ +1.0 off | -1.0 def ]
2005 +3.5 [ +3.0 off | +0.5 def ]
2006 +5.0 [ +4.0 off | +1.0 def ]
2007 +4.0 [ +3.0 off | +1.0 def ]
2008 +5.5 [ +4.5 off | +1.0 def ]
2009 +8.5 [ +6.5 off | +2.0 def ]
2010 +9.0 [ +7.0 off | +2.0 def ]
2011 +7.0 [ +5.0 off | +2.0 def ]
2012 +7.5 [ +5.0 off | +2.5 def ]
2013 +9.5 [ +6.5 off | +3.0 def ]

2013 subject to change, could be 6.0 off, he was unreal during the streak but he couldnt maintain such a high offensive performance. His D was consistent throughout but IMO peak Mj (90-92) was better offensively than 13 Lebron.

Yeah, the only difference would be that I've got his earlier seasons as slightly lower on offense but slightly higher on defense.

And shouldn't it be said that 2007 was at least +.5 on DEF change from the first three years?

Yeah, but I have 2006 lower, at around the same level as 05 defensively, so 2007 comes out as an improvement.

[PCProductions]

Spoiler:

Elimination Games (15 G)

Code: Select all

MP    PTS    ORB    DRB    TRB    AST    BLK    STL    TO    TS%    GmSco
45.7  31.9   2.0    8.2    10.2   6.4    0.6    1.4    4.6  .565    23.6

Since 2008 (12 G)

Code: Select all

MP    PTS    ORB    DRB    TRB    AST    BLK    STL    TO    TS%    GmSco
45.3  33.1   2.3    8.5    10.7   6.6    0.7    1.5    4.5  .592    26.0

Game 7 (5 G)

Code: Select all

MP    PTS    ORB    DRB    TRB    AST    BLK    STL    TO    TS%    GmSco
45.3  34.4   2.2    6.8    9.0    3.6    0.4    1.6    2.4  .598    26.5

In Miami (3 G)

Code: Select all

MP    PTS    ORB    DRB    TRB    AST    BLK    STL    TO    TS%    GmSco
44.5  33.3   2.3    8.3    10.7   3.3    0.7    1.7    2.3  .633    28.0

Epic dropoff in assists for Game 7.

[ceiling raiser]

For the SRS project, do you think it's possible that LeBron's offense/defense are roughly balanced? I think his offense is still ahead, but since we're considering him as of the end of season/playoffs, perhaps there's an argument.

[PCProductions]

For the SRS project, do you think it's possible that LeBron's offense/defense are roughly balanced? I think his offense is still ahead, but since we're considering him as of the end of season/playoffs, perhaps there's an argument.

No way. Lebron would need at least a +6.0 DEF which is like Russell territory or something.

[SideshowBob]

So what does Lebron need to work on in the offseason?

[SideshowBob]

For the SRS project, do you think it's possible that LeBron's offense/defense are roughly balanced? I think his offense is still ahead, but since we're considering him as of the end of season/playoffs, perhaps there's an argument.

Depends. How would you break it down?

I think this was one of the top offensive seasons of all time, Magic/Bird/Jordan/Nash territory and no one else )FWIW I'd separate Magic/Bird out as clearly better than the rest). Its hard for me to consider him as good defensively, because I don't know that anyone in the 3PT era has been that good and James is nowhere near the best defense player of the 3PT era (certainly one of the best though).

[ceiling raiser]

For the SRS project, do you think it's possible that LeBron's offense/defense are roughly balanced? I think his offense is still ahead, but since we're considering him as of the end of season/playoffs, perhaps there's an argument.

No way. Lebron would need at least a +6.0 DEF which is like Russell territory or something.

Do you think +5.0 OFF / +4.0 DEF is reasonable?

[SideshowBob]

For the SRS project, do you think it's possible that LeBron's offense/defense are roughly balanced? I think his offense is still ahead, but since we're considering him as of the end of season/playoffs, perhaps there's an argument.

No way. Lebron would need at least a +6.0 DEF which is like Russell territory or something.

Do you think +5.0 OFF / +4.0 DEF is reasonable?

How do you see the defensive peaks of Robinson/Olajuwon/Howard/Duncan/Garnett?

[colts18]

So what does Lebron need to work on in the offseason?

Continue to work on his jumper so that he has another great jumpshooting season.

Ask the Heat if he is going to be a big next season or not. If he is, stay the same weight. If not, lose 10 lbs to gain back some of his lost athleticism

Refine his post game

Inject Wade with HGH in his knees