Indystar: What to Expect with #23 (slideshow)

[Scoot McGroot]

Great little piece from the Indystar, though in slideshow form. Basically, a quick review of #23 picks and their careers since 1995. I'll recap.

1995 - Travis Best - Indiana
1996 - Efthimios Rentzias - Denver
1997 - Bobby Jackson - Seattle/Minnesota
1998 - Tyronn Lue - Denver
1999 - Devean George - LAL
2000 - DeSean Stevenson - Utah
2001 - Brandon Armstrong - NJ/Houston
2002 - Tayshaun Prince - Detroit
2003 - Travis Outlaw - Portland
2004 - Sergei Monia - Portland
2005 - Francisco Garcia - Sacramento
2006 - Josh Boone - NJ
2007 - Wilson Chandler - NY
2008 - Kosta Koufos - Utah
2009 - Omri Casspi - Sacramento
2010 - Trevor Booker - Minnesota/Washington
2011 - Nikola Mirotic - Chicago
2012 - John Jenkins - Atlanta
2013 - ? - Indiana


Long story short, there's a surprising amount of solid, contributing role players in this list. Rentzias, Armstrong, Casspi, and Monia are the only true misses. Several took different locations to put it together (Jackson, Lue, Koufos), and even Boone contributed decently well off the bench for a couple years. Jenkins and Mirotic are relatively unknown at this point, but look to be solid.

We could get a solid role player in this draft. Think more of 7th or 8th man out of this draft and you'll feel pretty good. Don't assume a starter is late in this draft.

[Wizop]

What I've seen over the years is that you can get value lower if you are looking for something out of favor. Al Harrington was an example. We took him at the bottom of the first round right out of high school at a time when that was viewed as a risk. International players went high until Tsitsvili (can't even remember how to spell his name) busted and now they don't. The Colts under Dungy consistently got value in lower picks because they valued speed over size when other teams did not. I'm not sure what is out of favor now. Perhaps college seniors?

[mizzoupacers]

Yeah, at #23 there is a reasonably good chance to add a good player.

OK, here's "what to expect" from the #53 pick (going back just ten years):

2003 Tommy Smith
2004 Romain Sato
2005 Orien Greene
2006 Yotam Halperin
2007 Demetris Nichols
2008 Tadjia Dragicevic
2009 Nando De Colo
2010 Pape Sy
2011 DeAndre Liggins
2012 Furken Aldemir

So you see, an excellent chance to get a foreigner we've never heard of and will never remember.

But going back a little bit further:

2002 Rasual Butler
2001 Jarron Collins

That's the "cream" of this crop for the last 20 years.

[Wizop]

So you see, [at 53 there is] an excellent chance to get a foreigner we've never heard of and will never remember.

makes you want to take a flyer on someone like Watford who needs to develop a lot of new skills and hope he goes to Europe a la Anthony Davis. too bad you can't sign a second round pick to a D-League contract. that's baseball's model.

[Scoot McGroot]

So you see, [at 53 there is] an excellent chance to get a foreigner we've never heard of and will never remember.

makes you want to take a flyer on someone like Watford who needs to develop a lot of new skills and hope he goes to Europe a la Anthony Davis. too bad you can't sign a second round pick to a D-League contract. that's baseball's model.

Or you can let Watford go undrafted, sign him to a mostly un-guaranteed contract for training camp (say, $25g) as a sign of good will, and then waive him in training camp. His camp will consider the $25g as a "down payment" long-term and will keep close contact with the team.

[8305]

I'm more optimistic than you guys. In my look back I looked at the population of guys selected after pick 23 over the last five years. Making the assumption we are smarter than other organizations and maybe more importantly do a better job of player development.

Anyway looking at last year, ouch. The Plumlee pick really doesn't look that terrible as there were only a few players taken after him who even got run. Passing on Draymon Green stings a little since many boards had us taking him. Go back to 2008 and there is some reason for optimism. Quite a few very good players available after pick 23. Since 2008 pick 23 and after has been pretty thin. The Rockets getting Buddinger and Parsons with 2nd round picks have put the rest of the league to shame. The formula for those two and Green for that matter appears to be solid, smart, accomplished college players who can shoot.

[Boneman2]

So you see, [at 53 there is] an excellent chance to get a foreigner we've never heard of and will never remember.

makes you want to take a flyer on someone like Watford who needs to develop a lot of new skills and hope he goes to Europe a la Anthony Davis. too bad you can't sign a second round pick to a D-League contract. that's baseball's model.

Yeah the NBA's farm model does not make sense. To set it up like baseball would be way too complex.

I am in favor of a "practice squad" similar to the NFL. These players would comprise a large percentage of the D-league, and like the NFL, could be called up for a set number of games. However, unlike the NFL, I'd allow franchises some protection from other teams signing its players without compensation. This system would make the 2nd round relevant, and eventually it could lead to an additional round of draftees. The problem is the NBA doesn't want to add another layer of massive responsibility. As it is the D-League functions as its own entity, with its own draft, which is in reality the 3rd rd.

In recent years at least Lance,OJ and Plumlee would have been good candidates, as opposed to sitting the bench.

[Scoot McGroot]

So you see, [at 53 there is] an excellent chance to get a foreigner we've never heard of and will never remember.

makes you want to take a flyer on someone like Watford who needs to develop a lot of new skills and hope he goes to Europe a la Anthony Davis. too bad you can't sign a second round pick to a D-League contract. that's baseball's model.

Yeah the NBA's farm model does not make sense. To set it up like baseball would be way too complex.

I am in favor of a "practice squad" similar to the NFL. These players would comprise a large percentage of the D-league, and like the NFL, could be called up for a set number of games. However, unlike the NFL, I'd allow franchises some protection from other teams signing its players without compensation. This system would make the 2nd round relevant, and eventually it could lead to an additional round of draftees. The problem is the NBA doesn't want to add another layer of massive responsibility. As it is the D-League functions as its own entity, with its own draft, which is in reality the 3rd rd.

In recent years at least Lance,OJ and Plumlee would have been good candidates, as opposed to sitting the bench.

Eh, NFL practice squads are 8 men deep, and there's 52 active players at any given time. That's a little less than 1/6th of the roster. Transfer over the NBA, and that'd be about 2 roster spots. You also don't completely control their rights, as they can sign anywhere. I think it's really an exact correlation to the NFL/D-League when you consider that the NBA supplements the D-League owners for the salaries of the players there.

[mizzoupacers]

I'm more optimistic than you guys. In my look back I looked at the population of guys selected after pick 23 over the last five years. Making the assumption we are smarter than other organizations and maybe more importantly do a better job of player development.

Anyway looking at last year, ouch. The Plumlee pick really doesn't look that terrible as there were only a few players taken after him who even got run. Passing on Draymon Green stings a little since many boards had us taking him. Go back to 2008 and there is some reason for optimism. Quite a few very good players available after pick 23. Since 2008 pick 23 and after has been pretty thin. The Rockets getting Buddinger and Parsons with 2nd round picks have put the rest of the league to shame. The formula for those two and Green for that matter appears to be solid, smart, accomplished college players who can shoot.

Yeah, that's a great point--we should consider who was available after #23 in past drafts as well as who actually went 23rd.

Side note -- I think the Plumlee pick is too early to call. As best as I can tell, the Pacers took him hoping he would become Jeff Foster 2.0. Foster played in just 19 games his rookie year, for an average of only 4.5 minutes per game. So Plumlee is right on track!

[Wizop]

Or you can let Watford go undrafted, sign him to a mostly un-guaranteed contract

true, but if they go to Europe you keep your draft rights which is better than a sign of good faith and free too.

[Boneman2]

I'm warming up to Bullock at 23 over any other wing. Snell is my dark horse for wings.

There will be a surplus of bigs available, Mitchell is my pick if we go big. I'd also consider the 7 footer from Brazil Nouguria (sp?).

[Wizop]

Mitchell is the only power forward I'd consider. I do like Bullock as a wing. I don't like any of the 7 footers although the kid from Louisville wouldn't have me throwing things at the TV. I mostly like Green and Canaan and would love to get #31 or #33 away from Cleveland to have a shot at one or the other.

[Jake0890]

I'm warming up to Bullock at 23 over any other wing. Snell is my dark horse for wings.

There will be a surplus of bigs available, Mitchell is my pick if we go big. I'd also consider the 7 footer from Brazil Nouguria (sp?).

Lucas Nogueira is a solid big, but we don't have room for him. He's more of a center than a power forward, and there's no minutes for him at the center with Plumlee, Mahnimi, and Hibbert all already on roster.

[Scoot McGroot]

Or you can let Watford go undrafted, sign him to a mostly un-guaranteed contract

true, but if they go to Europe you keep your draft rights which is better than a sign of good faith and free too.

But then you've spent a 2nd on a guy that's going to go undrafted.

[8305]

I couldn't pass on Deing. I think he will be a starting center and there are probably several teams he would start for on day one. For us short term he's an immediate upgrade over Mahamni. Longer term I think he could play some 4 giving us the longest front court in basketball. Ultimately you have an asset that might return a lotto pick.

I like Wolters if we go point guard. Shooting guard Jamal Frnklin

[Boneman2]

I'm warming up to Bullock at 23 over any other wing. Snell is my dark horse for wings.

There will be a surplus of bigs available, Mitchell is my pick if we go big. I'd also consider the 7 footer from Brazil Nouguria (sp?).

Lucas Nogueira is a solid big, but we don't have room for him. He's more of a center than a power forward, and there's no minutes for him at the center with Plumlee, Mahnimi, and Hibbert all already on roster.

True, but imagine the return if we took someone with high upside. We could develop him in our big-man friendly system for 3 seasons then trade him for a solid return, or we could decide to keep him. Not that it is imperative to think about yet, but both Hibbert and Mahimi expire in 3 years. It never hurts to create leverage preemptively.

Nogueira is not my first choice, but I prefer him over guys like Plumlee II, Olynyk (Sp.?), Gobert and other bigs projected around #23. Like Wizop, I wouldn't be mad with Dieng from Louisville either.

Unless something silly happens, like Shabazz, Shroder, or Larkin dropping to #23, then Bullock is my choice barely over Mitchell. Based off our matchup with the Heat, we need more perimeter threats versus interior force. A player like Bullock also creates insurance if Granger doesn't return to form, or when he expires. Snell and Karasev are possibilities as well. In our system it is good for the wings to have sg/sf flexibility, and at 6'7" any of the three could back up George or Stephenson (3 or 2).

[Moooose]

With how the rankings are laid out, I think the only bigs that would be available at the 23rd would be Gobert and Dieng. Noguiera's having a boost in his draft stock. Adams, Olynyk, and Plumlee will most likely not slip into the 20s.
If we go big, I hope it is Gobert. I see Miles Plumlee as the successor to Pendergraph when his contract expires and would probably have that Jeff Foster role of a PF/C. The Pacers have renowned trainers and maybe they can help Gobert get stronger.

But my personal favorite would be Nate Wolters. Good ball-handler, good scorer, smart, and probably would be better than Ben Hansbrough. We were lacking a true back-up point guard in our series with Miami and at the same time, someone that could make something happen. Walsh and Pritchard might be thinking we have too much defense in our 2nd unit and zero offense, and I think he'll be a good investment.

We also need another post player that I hope we can get thru free agency. Seriously, I am thinking about taking Jermaine O'Neal back.