Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[truwizfan4evr]

starting to enter shut down mode myself as well. the suspense is too much to bare.

Ready to get to the Wiggins/Parker Draft thread. {^_^}

Not if were in playoff.

[Knighthonor]

starting to enter shut down mode myself as well. the suspense is too much to bare.

Ready to get to the Wiggins/Parker Draft thread. {^_^}

Not if were in playoff.

not likely going to happen.

only team in the current playoffs that may not repeat is the Bucks. thats it.

I dont see OP adding much in this coming season. Same with Noel or Len.

This draft doesnt have what it takes without the risk picks that may blow up.

Nene is going to be hurt next season. What happens when Beal goes down again? Who will replace Webster?

Ariza will be shopped, so who will play SF and Backup SF? Singleton? come on....


cant be disapointed really next season ether. My shut down may be through the following season until the Wizards gain a second and third star player.

[gambitx777]

Beal might not go down, NENE could be moved, our pick could really add something to this team, thats depth, something that all play off teams need. Webster might resign, and singleton could develop, hes not as hopeless as Jan. Porter is MKG but with better offence, and one inch taller. So, no i would not trade the pick for MKG either.

and as for next years draft. Even if we hit in the 15-20 range, we can grab a really nice player if all the people come out as they are supposed to.

[dangermouse]

Any more workout videos?

Give these old birds and inch and they'll sky on you, man.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KoLIfgkpNcU[/youtube]

Edit:

Oh, I found another good one:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozoTzkCeO-A[/youtube]

Thanks.

[verbal8]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/22 ... Green-Room

Nerlens Noel (Kentucky); Victor Oladipo (Indiana); Otto Porter (Georgetown); Alex Len (Maryland); Anthony Bennett (UNLV); Ben McLemore (Kansas); Trey Burke (Michigan); Michael Carter-Williams (Syracuse); C.J. McCollum (Lehigh) and Cody Zeller (Indiana) have been inivted.

That nearly matches the DX top 10 exactly. Only Steven Adams/Zeller(11th on DX) are different.

Does it match up with Chad Ford's top ten?

[sfam]

Is Noel the next Thabeet? I don't know but he looks like a reed to me. He is skinny, injured, and has no offensive talent. I do love his defensive game though. I wouldn't take a chance on him. If I could get an Illyasova in his prime on a long term, reasonable contract, and then add Dieng or Adams I would do so without hesitation.

Noel seems lots more skilled and a better athlete besides than Thabeet. If the knee is fine, I don't see bust with Noel.

Who do you see bust in ?

I'd be concerned about McLemore never really developing into anything more than a role player. He gets too passive in big moments. Worse his prep right now is horrid. I would worry about his long term commitment. But the big concern for me is Len and his ankles.

[Dat2U]

My top 3 potential busts in the lottery:

SG Ben McLemore - depends on where he's drafted. The higher he goes, the harder for him to live up to the pressure. He'll be nothing more than a role player at best. I'm almost certain of it. Most likely he'll disappoint because he'll be too passive & timid and he'll be severely limited by his weak handles. I would not be surprised to see his sweet shooting stroke go awry for extended periods of time due to a lack of confidence.

PF Anthony Bennett - Like many tweeners before him, I think he'll really struggle to make an impact defensively. The lack of ideal length is often a career killer. What makes it even worse is the terrible effort in defending. I've also heard about him being a slow learner, that he struggles to pick up schemes and concepts. This may also infect his offensive upside as his awareness appears suspect without the ball. On the flipside, he's got some offensive tools that immediately fit the stretch 4 concept... the problem is, it may not be enough to offset the negatives.

CE Steven Adams - Scouts love his size, frame, athleticism & willingness to be physical. I'm worried about his overall lack of skill, questionable hands, poor finishing ability and overall basketball awareness. I think there's little chance he ever develops into anything offensively with no real skill and the inability to cleanly catch passes. Defensively he tries hard, but gets lost pretty easily. He honestly looks like a guy that's barely been coached his career and if you read into his background it explains everything. Upside wise, he could be a very solid low post defender in time, my gut tells me his value won't be realized at best until he's on his 2nd or 3rd team.

[stevemcqueen1]

Many ways to skin a cat. I think we could draft about seven or eight different guys and be successful. I like some players more than others. But most of the guys at the top offer something worthwhile to develop.

[stevemcqueen1]

It's boring but I could see Noel busting because of knee problems. Otherwise, I think he'll be good.

I think Len has high bust potential. I don't think he's the sum of his parts and the sum of his parts are inflating his draft stock. Len wasn't even in my top 8 at the end of the season. I'm suspicious of his rise and think it might be a classic case of people seeing the tools and not the basketball player. Losing sight of the forest through the trees.

I too think Adams has very high bust potential. He's just not very good right now. He has no go to skill that will get him on the court early. He's in not ready for the NBA at all right now, he only turned pro for the money. It's not conducive to success to throw yourself to the fire in the NBA before you're ready. Your opportunities don't last long.

I could see Trey Burke being a bit of a disappointment but not a bust. I think his streaky shooting and lack of speed and size will limit him as a scorer as he is below average at both of those for his position.

I think Bennett, McLemore, Zeller, McCollum, Porter, and Oladipo are all pretty safe picks. They've each got bankable, NBA ready skills to go to and get a role and some PT early-ish in their careers. Each have a good physical attribute that helps set them apart from the crowd in the NBA.

I think McLemore might be a little slow to develop but will be excellent once he adjusts to the NBA lifestyle. I also think Oladipo's game might take a little while to translate and some patience might be necessary. The two parts of his game that define him are shooting efficiency and defense. Rookies almost never shoot well or play good defense. It might take some time to adjust to the new level of competition but I think he'll be fine.

[stevemcqueen1]

Adams feels like a poor man's Darko to me.

[nate33]

CE Steven Adams - Scouts love his size, frame, athleticism & willingness to be physical. I'm worried about his overall lack of skill, questionable hands, poor finishing ability and overall basketball awareness. I think there's little chance he ever develops into anything offensively with no real skill and the inability to cleanly catch passes. Defensively he tries hard, but gets lost pretty easily. He honestly looks like a guy that's barely been coached his career and if you read into his background it explains everything. Upside wise, he could be a very solid low post defender in time, my gut tells me his value won't be realized at best until he's on his 2nd or 3rd team.

I watched a recent workout of him and find myself drifting towards your line of thinking about him. He is very raw with poor hands, no offensive game, and doesn't have the awareness to be a good help defender. It's going to take him a while. Right now, the only the only thing he can do at an NBA level is play post defense. And in today's game, that's not really in much demand. He seems like a guy who should be targeted when he becomes a free agent.

The big wildcard with him is his work ethic. If he is willing to bust his nuts in the gym and in the film room for two solid years, he could accelerate his learning curve and become an impact player while still on his rookie deal. His upside is still pretty high. He could pan out to be roughly as good as a healthy Bogut, and that's a real good player.

[verbal8]

This looks like a good list to me. Including health concerns would add Len and Noel to the list, but the average fan will never have access to the information to make those predictions.

I think draft position will make a huge difference. I think McLemore could be a good NBA player, but at #2 where he is projected, that would be a huge disappointment. I think his ideal situation would be to end up in New Orleans, where he can gradually replace Eric Gordon.

Bennett could be 6th man of the year, but that would pretty disappointing for the 7th pick in the draft.

Adams has potential but there are a lot of NBA quality 7 footers in this draft. It seems like it might be a mistake to use a top 10 pick on him. The 44% FT shooting scare me. I think Gobert(early-20s) is about the right place for a project big in this draft.

Shabazz looked like a potential bust, but I think he will be picked late enough(late lotto), he will probably come close to expectations. Michael Carter-Williams is a similar story.

My top 3 potential busts in the lottery:

SG Ben McLemore - depends on where he's drafted. The higher he goes, the harder for him to live up to the pressure. He'll be nothing more than a role player at best. I'm almost certain of it. Most likely he'll disappoint because he'll be too passive & timid and he'll be severely limited by his weak handles. I would not be surprised to see his sweet shooting stroke go awry for extended periods of time due to a lack of confidence.

PF Anthony Bennett - Like many tweeners before him, I think he'll really struggle to make an impact defensively. The lack of ideal length is often a career killer. What makes it even worse is the terrible effort in defending. I've also heard about him being a slow learner, that he struggles to pick up schemes and concepts. This may also infect his offensive upside as his awareness appears suspect without the ball. On the flipside, he's got some offensive tools that immediately fit the stretch 4 concept... the problem is, it may not be enough to offset the negatives.

CE Steven Adams - Scouts love his size, frame, athleticism & willingness to be physical. I'm worried about his overall lack of skill, questionable hands, poor finishing ability and overall basketball awareness. I think there's little chance he ever develops into anything offensively with no real skill and the inability to cleanly catch passes. Defensively he tries hard, but gets lost pretty easily. He honestly looks like a guy that's barely been coached his career and if you read into his background it explains everything. Upside wise, he could be a very solid low post defender in time, my gut tells me his value won't be realized at best until he's on his 2nd or 3rd team.

[hands11]

except we don't have a go to scorer. If you want to make wall a go to scorer, expect to see the same results with him physically that we saw with Gilbert Arenas. Beal is not a go to scorer, he is a spot up shooter. Porter is not a go to scorer. Nene is not a night to night go to scorer. Okafor definitely is not a go to scorer. There is a huge problem with this line up longterm. Are we expecting to pull a go to front court scorer in the future?
Beal is what he is and he is definitely a system guy, he doesn't have the tools to take over a game at will.
Wall can attack the rim, but do we want that to be his role considering his injury history and what we learned about forcing your point guard to carry the scoring load every night and heighten injury issues associated with being a number one option point guard getting knocked to the ground multiples times per game trying to take it inside.
Porter is absolutely NOT a go to scorer and NEVER will be.
We need a plan.

One of the few posts I largely agree with, WizD. That said, I think Porter will be a decent pick as well. We just really suckbon offense - we still need more than Wall and Beal. Maybe Porter does enough other things though to make up for it.

Otto's offense is going to get better and better over time. He's a fine pick at #3, and I hope the Wizards do draft him given the chance. Zeller is perhaps a better fit and a good pick.

Oladipo IMO is a great draft-to-trade pick. Future star to superstar IMO.

Len is not Vesely. If his ankle is good-to-go he's likely worth the gamble. He looks like a backup big man based on stats/games at UMCP, but I think his Euro perimeter game and his effort on defense make him worth the risk -- IF his ankle checks out . Alex at his best is flat out a beast. His potential is IMO the highest (by far) in this draft.

WizD is probably right about Adams' defense. I don't like his flaky--but I of all people shouldn't knock that. His shot is primitive bad but he moves with nimble reflexes and is both strong and quick. Might become an elite defender ... Or, might just be happy cashing checks. Very low skill on offense.

Olynyk seems like a logical pick because he is a seven foot, scoring machine. Dude seems like a very high IQ type to me. Battier smart type player IMO.

The more I think about Cody Zeller as the pick the more I am okay with him. Way better than Hansbrough or his brother Tyler. Also very smart. Like Beal, youngest brother learned from big brothers and is wise well beyond his years. I just like Olynyk, but objectively, Cody Zeller might be the best pick.
McCollum is a no-brainer, and in a vacuum is worthy at #3. He is Wall insurance, a potentially great combo guard, and is also a quality rebounder and defender. Reminds me of Walt Frazier. Feels like a future star type to me.

This draft is loaded IMO.

I think what throwing people off are the injuries to Noel, Len and CJM, the height of Burke, and the low usage of VO, and the possession change for Zeller. Thats 5 of the top picks.

But CJM is practicing now so that should answer some questions.

[keynote]

Chad Ford ‏@chadfordinsider 4m

Bennett 18lbs overweight rt now at 261lbs. A bit scary. Porter safer. Bennett more upside.

https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/sta ... 5132537856

Bennett's been injured & unable to workout. Combined with lots of travel & his body type, not a huge surprise he gained 18 pounds

https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/sta ... 0949469188

Ford's excuse aside, 261 lbs = 261 lbs. Undersized *and* overweight? Pass.

[Dat2U]

This looks like a good list to me. Including health concerns would add Len and Noel to the list, but the average fan will never have access to the information to make those predictions.

I think draft position will make a huge difference. I think McLemore could be a good NBA player, but at #2 where he is projected, that would be a huge disappointment. I think his ideal situation would be to end up in New Orleans, where he can gradually replace Eric Gordon.

Bennett could be 6th man of the year, but that would pretty disappointing for the 7th pick in the draft.

Adams has potential but there are a lot of NBA quality 7 footers in this draft. It seems like it might be a mistake to use a top 10 pick on him. The 44% FT shooting scare me. I think Gobert(early-20s) is about the right place for a project big in this draft.

Shabazz looked like a potential bust, but I think he will be picked late enough(late lotto), he will probably come close to expectations. Michael Carter-Williams is a similar story.

Good point about Noel & Len. Certainly the risk is there regarding their respective injury concerns. But it's nearly impossible for us draftniks to know without the medical reports or doctor's advice.

I'm less concerned regarding either's on court play, if healthy, I suspect Noel & Len will both be solid NBA players.

Your also right about how draft position will make a huge difference. Gobert looks like a good gamble in the 20s. Shabazz in the late lottery or teens seems about right considering his physical profile.

I also don't like Michael Carter-Williams. Even though scouts love his tools and the advanced numbers seem to like him, I question his shooting ability and his ability to get into the lane consistently against quicker defenders. His decision making also needs some work although he does display good court vision. And when you throw in the fact that he'll be 22 yrs old before the season starts, I have serious doubts about his actual upside.

[Ruzious]

Chad Ford ‏@chadfordinsider 4m

Bennett 18lbs overweight rt now at 261lbs. A bit scary. Porter safer. Bennett more upside.

https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/sta ... 5132537856

Bennett's been injured & unable to workout. Combined with lots of travel & his body type, not a huge surprise he gained 18 pounds

https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/sta ... 0949469188

Ford's excuse aside, 261 lbs = 261 lbs. Undersized *and* overweight? Pass.

This is a good example of why some of us keep pointing to his many questionmarks. I think we all see some ability there - in varying degrees, but there are too many ???'s to take him at 3.

[Dat2U]

Yeah Bennett has no business going in the top 3 of any draft.

Waaaaaaaaay too many unanswered questions. I think he's a high risk, medium reward guy. He's a late lottery/mid 1st rounder IMO and even then, your still taking a risk.

[Dat2U]

The big wildcard with him is his work ethic. If he is willing to bust his nuts in the gym and in the film room for two solid years, he could accelerate his learning curve and become an impact player while still on his rookie deal. His upside is still pretty high. He could pan out to be roughly as good as a healthy Bogut, and that's a real good player.

True that his work ethic could make a big difference but I disagree about the Bogut comparison. He'll never have the basketball IQ or awareness of Bogut. He'll never have Bogut's skill (which has regressed somewhat over the years btw) and of course, he'll never have Bogut's hands.

Adams at his best, would be a physical grunt that does all the dirty work and cleans up the boards and stays out the way offensively.

[Ruzious]

It's boring but I could see Noel busting because of knee problems. Otherwise, I think he'll be good.

I think Len has high bust potential. I don't think he's the sum of his parts and the sum of his parts are inflating his draft stock. Len wasn't even in my top 8 at the end of the season. I'm suspicious of his rise and think it might be a classic case of people seeing the tools and not the basketball player. Losing sight of the forest through the trees.

I too think Adams has very high bust potential. He's just not very good right now. He has no go to skill that will get him on the court early. He's in not ready for the NBA at all right now, he only turned pro for the money. It's not conducive to success to throw yourself to the fire in the NBA before you're ready. Your opportunities don't last long.

I could see Trey Burke being a bit of a disappointment but not a bust. I think his streaky shooting and lack of speed and size will limit him as a scorer as he is below average at both of those for his position.

I think Bennett, McLemore, Zeller, McCollum, Porter, and Oladipo are all pretty safe picks. They've each got bankable, NBA ready skills to go to and get a role and some PT early-ish in their careers. Each have a good physical attribute that helps set them apart from the crowd in the NBA.

I think McLemore might be a little slow to develop but will be excellent once he adjusts to the NBA lifestyle. I also think Oladipo's game might take a little while to translate and some patience might be necessary. The two parts of his game that define him are shooting efficiency and defense. Rookies almost never shoot well or play good defense. It might take some time to adjust to the new level of competition but I think he'll be fine.

The only one I we disagree on is Burke. He's basically Mike Conley, Jr part 2 - with a bit more of a scorer's mentality. They're the exact same height with the exact same wingspan, Burke's standing reach is 3 inches longer somehow, and he's a little bulkier than Conley - while Conley is a little quicker - but these differences are small. Do people notice Conley having troubles because of his height? I don't. I think Conley has steadily built a very good reputation as a starting PG.

[Ruzious]

The big wildcard with him is his work ethic. If he is willing to bust his nuts in the gym and in the film room for two solid years, he could accelerate his learning curve and become an impact player while still on his rookie deal. His upside is still pretty high. He could pan out to be roughly as good as a healthy Bogut, and that's a real good player.

True that his work ethic could make a big difference but I disagree about the Bogut comparison. He'll never have the basketball IQ or awareness of Bogut. He'll never have Bogut's skill (which has regressed somewhat over the years btw) and of course, he'll never have Bogut's hands.

Adams at his best, would be a physical grunt that does all the dirty work and cleans up the boards and stays out the way offensively.

I look at Len and see a project. But Adams is a project's project. He has as much physical ability as Len, but I don't think he's worth the wait. By the time the light goes on, he'll be a free agent, and then you'll either have to overpay, or see your patience with him paying off for another team. I'd rather be that other team - that gets him in year 5 rather than year 1.