I have a lot of respect for the work that Kevin Pelton does over at ESPN Insider.
Here is his latest piece and draft rankings.Over the last four days leading up to the NBA draft, you're going to see a lot of numbers, some of them more important than others when it comes to predicting how players in their teens and early 20s will ultimately perform in the NBA. The most meaningful might be a simple one -- age.
No matter how you study the history of the draft, the results are clear: Younger players end up faring better than older ones. Even during their first seasons, younger rookies develop more compared to their college performance than older ones, a gap that grows as they continue to progress toward their peak.
Age isn't the most important factor in projecting NBA success -- how players have performed in the past is still more important -- but because we're comparing prospects at different stages of the development process, we can really only understand that performance in the context of age. That's the fundamental truth on which my draft projections are built.
I start by translating a player's college statistics to their NBA equivalents. That produces a per-minute rating, player win% (equivalent to PER), that projects how we can expect rookies to perform in the NBA next season. By adding age, I come up with a projection of how many Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP), on average, prospects will produce over their first five years -- the amount of time teams control a first-round pick between the four-year rookie contract and one year as a restricted free agent.
As with any statistical projection, the results are far from perfect. There's too much uncertainty about how any individual will develop to tell the difference between prospects whose projections are decimal points apart. But larger differences can be meaningful indicators of over- or undervalued players.
For more details on the process, as well as past draft ratings, check out the companion piece on Tuesday. If you just want this year's results, keep reading. I've ranked the NCAA players and a handful of international prospects among Chad Ford's top 30 based on their WARP projections, as well as the top 10 players outside this group who look like second-round steals.
Here are the rankings.
1. Noel
2. Porter
3. Caldwell-Pope
4. Zeller
5. McCollum
6. Lucas Nogueira
7. Burke
8. Bennett
9. Carter-Williams
10. Karasev
11. Adams
12. Rice
13. Larkin
14. Mitchell
15. Crabbe
16. Olynyk
17. Oladipo
18. Mclemore
19. Bullock
20. Canaan
21. Franklin
22. Hardaway
23. Len
24. Dieng
25. Snell
26. Plumlee
27. Muhammaed
No rankings b/c of lack sufficient data for Schroeder, Antetokounmpo and Ledo.
His second round steals feature names we have discussed here -- Wolters, Muscala, doc's guy Kazemi
Here are his snippets on a few of the guys who are ranked significantly above or below where the typical mocks and rankings have them or are otherwise noteworthy:
Noel (about whom I have expressed doubts):Noel's WARP projection is a little on the low side for a No. 1 pick, but would have put him second behind Kentucky predecessor Anthony Davis in last year's draft. Noel's defensive potential is immense. In addition to the second-best translated block rate of anyone in the draft (only Jeff Withey rates better), Noel also generates a high number of steals for a post player. He joins three post players in my database with translated steal percentages of 2.0 or better: DeJuan Blair, Kenneth Faried and Greg Monroe. That's important because steal rate tends to be an indicator of quickness that translates at the NBA level.
Porter:Given Noel's injury, Porter might be the surest thing in this year's draft. The Big East Player of the Year rates well across the board; his only statistical weakness (a category in which he's in the bottom 25 percent of past players at his position entering the NBA) is usage rate. Note that Porter, despite playing two years at Georgetown, is younger than freshmen Anthony Bennett and Shabazz Muhammad.
Noguieria:
For European players who played in the Spanish ACB, the best domestic league, or the continental Euroleague and EuroCup competitions, the translation process is the same except it involves players going both to and from the NBA. "Bebe" put up solid stats playing against grown-ups in the ACB. He blocked shots more frequently than Serge Ibaka did in the same league and projects to make nearly 55 percent of his 2-point shots.
Oladipo:
More than any other prospect, Oladipo is hurt by the emphasis on previous years. Based just on his junior year, Oladipo's WARP projection would crack the top 10. He was much less effective on offense his first two seasons, which has historically proven more indicative of NBA potential. Oladipo will be an impact defender either way, but he needs to contribute offensively to justify a top-five pick.
Mclemore:McLemore's statistical profile reflects the conventional wisdom that he was too passive at Kansas. His translated usage rate (17.4 percent) is low for a top-10 pick, especially a shooting guard. Of greater concern is how rarely McLemore got to the foul line. And, for a player who rarely created his own shot, he was surprisingly prone to turnovers. As a result, McLemore's upside appears overstated.
Len:If Len indeed goes No. 1 -- or anywhere in the top 10 -- it will be on the strength of scouting and not his performance. Len was ineffective in two years at Maryland, and while that's partially attributable to the system in which he played, Len has no such excuses for his poor rebounding. His low translated steal rate is also an enormous red flag -- no player in my database has ever come up with steals so infrequently. DeAndre Jordan and Ryan Anderson have been able to overcome similarly low steal rates, but Hasheem Thabeet has not.
My main takeaway is this is yet another source I trust extolling Porter's virtues. This will be a good draft if he slips to three and we nab him. Also, I really want to one of Len, Adams or Noguiera. I hope we can trade back up for someone who slips (likely one of the latter two). Nogueira's ranking/upside is clearly the best potential value compared to his purportedly likely draft position. Perhaps there's even more value there for the Wizards in having the young Brazillian tutored by Nene.
