Official Speculation Thread (Pt. LVI - NBA Draft Edition)

[doct3r dr3]

One player is also 23 and on an upward trajectory while the other is over 31 and on the decline...

But the guys comment wasn't about who is the better option moving forward, it was simply about him not being to shoot in literally ever season of his pro career.

A tiny 78 shot sample this season of 39.7 three point shooting means nothing when comparing it to his recent history. If he had shot that on a legit volume instead of a sample size so small that every shot and miss is dramatically moving his average.

NBA
32-116 .276
6-30 .200
31-78 .397
Career: 69-224 .308%

He hasn't become a true 40% shooter after being a 26% shooter (after 1st two years) in a single offseason. If I had to guess he falls back to around 32%-33% this next season if he gets up good number of attempts.

What I posted above is also why I don't trust Victor Oladipo's numbers. They are too far off his averages on a very small sample size.

But in mentioning it, you overlook the big point. Bledsoe shot three-point attempts at a dramatically lower rate this year than in previous seasons -- 13.7% of his total FG attempts this year, compared to 23.8% in his first two seasons. Sustained over 76 games of a season, you have to think this reflects an attitude change on his part; an improved shot selection. And if that is so, and he keeps shooting in the high 30s-40-range, on a modest volume for years to come, do we never give him credit for his three point shooting? Do we hold a poor shot selection in his rookie year against him for his whole career?

[D12orl]

if the cavs wanted to trade for L.A.... that means they want a big man... Noel off the table?

[meatwad4343]

if the cavs wanted to trade for L.A.... that means they want a big man... Noel off the table?

they wanted lma because the cavs want to make a run at the playoffs this year. he would have definetly been the piece that brought them back there. if anything this means they don't want noel. if they wanted him they'd stay put and take him. i think after this the pick will be len or porter or someone who can step in and play right away.

[rcklsscognition]

There's a problem with some of these rumors. Guys hear we bring a guy in and decide we're thinking about them at the #2. That's incorrect. We're not drafting Zeller at #2, that's ludacris. But Henny wants to be prepared if he trades down. What happens if he swaps with the Wolves for the 9 thinking someone will be there that ends up getting taken by the 8th pick team? Then he's scrambling to make a decision in 3 minutes on guys he's never met. Terrible idea.

Rumor Roundup Late Night Edition:

1) Nets willing to part with Mar$wag Brooks for a 2nd rounder. Yikes!

2) Flip Saunders is not offering 9/26 and D. Will according to Flip Saunders (interview a few days ago)

3) The Houston Rockets are doing anything and everything they can to move Aaron Brooks or Carlos Delfino on draft night.

4) The Pelicans and Cavaliers have discussed trades involving the 13th pick.

5) Cavs offered #1 and #19 to Portland for LaMarcus Aldridge. Declined.

6) Kings are shopping Jimmer for a 1st rounder. Talking with Pacers and Jazz.

7) The Thunder have been secretly active in talks to acquire the 1st pick in the draft.

8) Danny Granger, Monta Ellis (sign and trade), Thomas Robinson, and Jan Vesely all appear to be hot on the trading block.

9) Muhammad had a good workout with the Pistons today (Monday)

10) GM Mike Bratz isn't a "stat guy" drafts on "feel".

11) Talks are off and on with Paul Pierce to the Cavs.

12) It appears more likely than ever before that Marcin Gortat will be moved. Portland is possible destination.

13) Bucks making a push for Josh Smith

14) Grizzlies Hire Dave Joerger as Head Coach

15) Cavs are "very interested" in Earl Clark.

16) Do not rule out the chance that Rondo is traded.

[rcklsscognition]

if the cavs wanted to trade for L.A.... that means they want a big man... Noel off the table?

they wanted lma because the cavs want to make a run at the playoffs this year. he would have definetly been the piece that brought them back there. if anything this means they don't want noel. if they wanted him they'd stay put and take him. i think after this the pick will be len or porter or someone who can step in and play right away.

If I was Portland I'd ask for the #1 and Waiters for LMA.

[orlando1214]

There's a problem with some of these rumors. Guys hear we bring a guy in and decide we're thinking about them at the #2. That's incorrect. We're not drafting Zeller at #2, that's ludacris. But Henny wants to be prepared if he trades down. What happens if he swaps with the Wolves for the 9 thinking someone will be there that ends up getting taken by the 8th pick team? Then he's scrambling to make a decision in 3 minutes on guys he's never met. Terrible idea.

Yup that's exactly what's happening. We have an awesome GM who actually prepares for every possible scenario, and that's all that's going on with them bringing in Zeller. GM's and teams get crazy sometimes on draft night, so you never know when a good trade might become an option during the draft, so Hennigan just wants to be ready for any and all situations.

[Neon1]

And if that is so, and he keeps shooting in the high 30s-40-range, on a modest volume for years to come, do we never give him credit for his three point shooting? Do we hold a poor shot selection in his rookie year against him for his whole career?

No, what I said is when a player takes such limited attempts you have to wait for his averages and percentages to be near to stabilized. Eventually they will stabilize with every three he attempts.

ex:
If a player only attempts 78 threes, fg's or ft's in a season, his percentage lives and dies with every single shot attempted, every miss or make jumps it a full percentage point, which means its unstable and you cannot use it as concrete evidence as to gauge what his true level of shooter he is.

31-78 .397
If he made 1 more shot he jumps all the way to .410 (+1.3%)
If he made 1 less he falls all the way to .385 (-1.2%)

Now if he had shot the same percentage on double attempts

62-156 .397
If he made 1 more shot he jumps all the way to .404 (+.07%)
If he made 1 less he falls all the way to .391(-.06%)

Now triple the attempts:

93-234 .397
If he made 1 more shot he jumps all the way to .402 (+.05%)
If he made 1 less he falls all the way to .393(-.04%)

Quadruple attempts:

124-312 .397
If he made 1 more shot he jumps all the way to .401 (+.04%)
If he made 1 less he falls all the way to .394(-.03%)

x5 attempts

155-390 .397
If he made 1 more shot he jumps all the way to .400 (+.03%)
If he made 1 less he falls all the way to .395(-.02%)

x6 attempts

186-468 .397
If he made 1 more shot he jumps all the way to .400 (+.03%)
If he made 1 less he falls all the way to .395(-.02%)

The percentage stabilized around 390 attempts. I would say once you hit 300 you have a very solid basis for determination on how good a shooter they are at 300 attempts.

[doct3r dr3]

And if that is so, and he keeps shooting in the high 30s-40-range, on a modest volume for years to come, do we never give him credit for his three point shooting? Do we hold a poor shot selection in his rookie year against him for his whole career?

No, what I said is when a player takes such limited attempts you have to wait for his averages and percentages to be near to stabilized. Eventually they will stabilize with every three he attempts.

ex:

I get the point of sample sizes, but there's perhaps a more fundamental question about what a raw 3P% means when stripped of the context of the attempts. Like 300 Jason Kapono threes aren't the same as 300 Kobe Bryant threes -- the latter are mostly off the dribble, under pressure, many are last-second heaves after a broken play, etc.

In Bledsoe's case, I assume he took more ill-advised threes in his first two seasons than he did this year. So even when his career 3PA reaches 300, his career percentages will be cluttered by the 146-shot sample from his first two seasons, when he took worse shots.

[94_MagicFan]

There's a problem with some of these rumors. Guys hear we bring a guy in and decide we're thinking about them at the #2. That's incorrect. We're not drafting Zeller at #2, that's ludacris. But Henny wants to be prepared if he trades down. What happens if he swaps with the Wolves for the 9 thinking someone will be there that ends up getting taken by the 8th pick team? Then he's scrambling to make a decision in 3 minutes on guys he's never met. Terrible idea.

Rumor Roundup Late Night Edition:

1) Nets willing to part with Mar$wag Brooks for a 2nd rounder. Yikes!

2) Flip Saunders is not offering 9/26 and D. Will according to Flip Saunders (interview a few days ago)

3) The Houston Rockets are doing anything and everything they can to move Aaron Brooks or Carlos Delfino on draft night.

4) The Pelicans and Cavaliers have discussed trades involving the 13th pick.

5) Cavs offered #1 and #19 to Portland for LaMarcus Aldridge. Declined.

6) Kings are shopping Jimmer for a 1st rounder. Talking with Pacers and Jazz.

7) The Thunder have been secretly active in talks to acquire the 1st pick in the draft.

8) Danny Granger, Monta Ellis (sign and trade), Thomas Robinson, and Jan Vesely all appear to be hot on the trading block.

9) Muhammad had a good workout with the Pistons today (Monday)

10) GM Mike Bratz isn't a "stat guy" drafts on "feel".

11) Talks are off and on with Paul Pierce to the Cavs.

12) It appears more likely than ever before that Marcin Gortat will be moved. Portland is possible destination.

13) Bucks making a push for Josh Smith

14) Grizzlies Hire Dave Joerger as Head Coach

15) Cavs are "very interested" in Earl Clark.

16) Do not rule out the chance that Rondo is traded.

17. Brain shaw hired as nuggets HC

[Neon1]

I get the point of sample sizes, but there's perhaps a more fundamental question about what a raw 3P% means when stripped of the context of the attempts. Like 300 Jason Kapono threes aren't the same as 300 Kobe Bryant threes -- the latter are mostly off the dribble, under pressure, many are last-second heaves after a broken play, etc.

In Bledsoe's case, I assume he took more ill-advised threes in his first two seasons than he did this year. So even when his career 3PA reaches 300, his career percentages will be cluttered by the 146-shot sample from his first two seasons, when he took worse shots.

Well all I can really say is to just keep your eye on it next year if he's here and playing big minutes (more shots). I'm pretty sure his percentage will be much closer to his current career percentage (.308) then that 39.7%.

I'm sure he's better then his career .308 percentage, but I would almost guarantee it isn't by very much.

[IGotDaMagicInMe]

Cavs are trading the 1st pick for Earl Clark

[meatwad4343]

Cavs are trading the 1st pick for Earl Clark

wouldn't be surprised considering how the lakers always get everything handed to them on a silver platter.

[94_MagicFan]

Cavs are trading the 1st pick for Earl Clark

wouldn't be surprised considering how the lakers always get everything handed to them on a silver platter.

1 & 19 for Clark and Duhon

[jgosche]

Cavs are trading the 1st pick for Earl Clark

wouldn't be surprised considering how the lakers always get everything handed to them on a silver platter.

Cavs would prolly throw in the 19 as well

**** it, put Kyrie in there. They NEED Earl Clark.

[RickB-Orlando]

What about Comparison in shot attempts with those percentages?

Yep. Bledsoe only averaged one 3-point attempt per game.

I'm not sure if that means he's not confident in the shot or not a chucker. I mean, based on our past history, is it really bad that he's only taking one three pointer per game?

All we had before were three point shooters around Dwight, and we lived and died by the three. I'd be fine with a guy that can sink ne on occasion but doesn't fall in love with the three point line exclusively.

[cedric76]

The Wolves continue to try to move higher up in the draft to get their hands on Victor Oladipo. They're offering Derrick Williams, the No. 9 and the No. 26 pick to move up, but so far haven't found a taker. New Wolves GM Flip Saunders is enamored with Oladipo.

Uhhh why the hell are we not accepting this trade?

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_ ... ding-draft

I d jump on that offer

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[Greenraida]

is vesely worth having a look at?

I know his stats are bad but is that due to the horrible playing environment of the wizards?

I suppose we dont really need another tweener with harris here but maybe as an asset stash?

[cedric76]

Just a question guys

People keep talking about how good Noel s defense is, but ford and Penn mentioned that advanced stats show that Len is a better defender than Noel

Noel gamble a lot on steal and block leading to weaker defense

And len has stronger lower body and more defensive potential

So why would Cle/Orl risk taking Noel over len?

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[Greenraida]

is vesely worth having a look at?

I know his stats are bad but is that due to the horrible playing environment of the wizards?

I suppose we dont really need another tweener with harris here but maybe as an asset stash?

Nevermind I just looked up some videos on youtube, wow that FT action...

[Neon1]

is vesely worth having a look at?

I know his stats are bad but is that due to the horrible playing environment of the wizards?

I suppose we dont really need another tweener with harris here but maybe as an asset stash?

He isn't a tweener, he's 6-11 240 pounds. If we could get him to try and focus on blocking shots and defense, I'm all about giving trial runs.

BUT, If I'm trying out flameout 1st rounder's the first one id try is Anthony Randolph....anybody ever looked at his career per36 numbers and advanced stats? Crazy.