Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[Dat2U]

You guys already quoted Chad Ford so Im not gonna quote it again but all signs are leading to Otto falling right to us barring some unforseen idiotic trade. Lets do it, then draft Erik Murphy and then we know EG will stash 1 away in Europe that will never come over!

Im on the Erik Murphy train too, but we havent even had him in for workouts.

I'm not seeing it with Erik Murphy. Seems completely one dimensional. His rebounding is not up to par. Maybe his shooting is good enough to make him a specialist?

[Ruzious]

In the Irish stretch 4 section, my preference is Ryan Kelly. Like Murphy, he's rebounding deficient, but he's a very underrated defensive player, and his 9'2 standing reach gives him an advantage over most PF's. He's going to slide because of rebounding, injuries, and his near 15 body fat %. Kelly's not a great athlete, but he looks quicker than Murphy. Getting healthy and in shape could make Kelly a major bargain.

[rockymac52]

Im on the Erik Murphy train too, but we havent even had him in for workouts.

This reminds me... I've been wondering about the significance of workouts. Does anyone have any information on the history of the Wizards draft picks and whether or not we brought the player we picked in for a workout prior to the draft? I'm very curious as to the results. I suspect that with top ten picks, we'd normally bring in the guy for a workout since it's such an important pick, but at the same time, we have a lot of resources on the guys being picked top ten, so if we can't coordinate a workout date, then we can still feel pretty comfortable evaluating them and drafting them even if we didn't bring them in for a workout. I'm more curious about the correlation with 2nd rounders.

I don't know if the Wizards are going to be picking in the 2nd round. The guys they brought in sound like late 2nd to undrafted free agent/summer league/training camp invite type of players. I mean I guess we could watch out for James Southerland or Jackie Carmichael, maybe Allen Crabbe if we trade back into the first round.

I did some research. In the last few seasons, the Wizards brought in every single one of their draft picks for a pre-draft workout. The only exception was Kevin Seraphin, although I suspect that he may have hosted a private workout that we attended, but I can't find any facts to support this. As you noticed, most of the prospects we typically bring in for workouts are fringe 2nd rounders at best. It varies from year to year, but occasionally we'll have a solid group of 5 or so legitimate late 1st or 2nd round picks come in before the draft for workouts. That is, other than the top 10 prospects.

From looking at all of our pre-draft workouts from this season, I came up with a list of all of the non top ten guys who we invited to workouts, and then furthermore, only the guys who have been projected as a 2nd round pick in some major publication at any point in recent memory. These don't necessarily include any international prospects, who like Seraphin, might have held private workouts and invited several teams to watch. Other than that possibility, there aren't many options for us so far:

1. Peyton Siva (surprisingly the only notable PG we've brought in so far; a likely target at 54)

2. James Southerland (intriguing upside if he's big enough to defend PFs, as he could become our stretch 4)

3. Deshaun Thomas (I honestly don't believe that we're seriously considering him, because his skills just don't line up with what we need, especially if we draft Porter)

4. Mike Muscala (everybody's favorite guy these days, I think this is the guy we want to draft, but there's a good chance he's gone by the 38th pick)

5. Jackie Carmichael (if Muscala is off the board, I think Carmichael might be the pick at 38)

6. Mason Plumlee (this one was surprising, as he's projected to go in the 15-25 range, although his stock has been slipping fast, and it's possible that he's in for a big draft night slide, and/or we might be considering moving into the end of the 1st round to get him)

That's it. So unless we go for an international prospect, which is very possible, then history has told us that one (or two) of these guys will be our selections Thursday night. If that's the case, then I'm a bit underwhelmed. I like a few of these guys, some more than others, but I'm very surprised at the lack of PG options, but oh well.

For reference, here's a list of the guys who would have made this list last season for us:
1. Scott Machado
2. Khris Middleton
3. Bernard James
4. Darius Miller
5. Miles Plumlee
6. Kris Joseph
7. Tyshawn Taylor
8. Tomas Satoransky

[tontoz]

You guys already quoted Chad Ford so Im not gonna quote it again but all signs are leading to Otto falling right to us barring some unforseen idiotic trade. Lets do it, then draft Erik Murphy and then we know EG will stash 1 away in Europe that will never come over!

Im on the Erik Murphy train too, but we havent even had him in for workouts.

I'm not seeing it with Erik Murphy. Seems completely one dimensional. His rebounding is not up to par. Maybe his shooting is good enough to make him a specialist?

I didn't watch much of the combine but i did happen to catch Murphy doing the sprint. I lol'd.

[Dat2U]

In the Irish stretch 4 section, my preference is Ryan Kelly. Like Murphy, he's rebounding deficient, but he's a very underrated defensive player, and his 9'2 standing reach gives him an advantage over most PF's. He's going to slide because of rebounding, injuries, and his near 15 body fat %. Kelly's not a great athlete, but he looks quicker than Murphy. Getting healthy and in shape could make Kelly a major bargain.

Yep, Kelly did make a huge difference for Duke defensively. Watching him play, he seemed adapt at being in the right spot & contesting shots. I'm not sure how he holds up as an individual defender but he projects to be a solid team defender at least.

[DCZards]

I'm happily sucked in and still hope we select Bennett, so no, talk is still happenin.

I too think Bennett is worthy of discussion and should be in consideration. I really like his potential and I like his fit here in terms of skill set and roster construction.

Agreed. I'm not necessarily on the Bennett bandwagon, although I think he's a top 5 talent. But he's still just as much in the mix as a possiblity at #3 as any of the other players we've been discussing. If there's no more to say about Bennett, then that's true of the others as well.

[Dark Faze]

Seth Curry was dominant on the advanced stat rankings by position listed by DX. I want to get rid of Price, bring Satoransky over and draft Muscala and Seth Curry.

[hands11]

You guys already quoted Chad Ford so Im not gonna quote it again but all signs are leading to Otto falling right to us barring some unforseen idiotic trade. Lets do it, then draft Erik Murphy and then we know EG will stash 1 away in Europe that will never come over!

Im on the Erik Murphy train too, but we havent even had him in for workouts.

Only two days to go. And it cant get here soon enough. I want to know what kind of team we are going to have next year.

How do they address.

We need.

A long strong defensive center 6-11 to 7-0
A 3rd guard with handles.

I like Otto, but still not seeing him as a better fit then Burke or VO. I guess Otto would make sense if Webster can really back up at SG.

I saw someone post that Webster was more efficient at SG then SF. Where did you get the data on that ? I didn't believe that to be true. I thought he was better at SF.

So maybe they go Otto and Wolter/Pierre

Wall/Wolter or Pierre
Beal/Webster/Temple
Trevor A/Otto
Nene/Ves/Booker/AJ
Okafor/Kevin

Singleton, 2nd 2nd unless they can trade Singleton with the 2nd 2nd and move up.

Then you see how things go. Maybe Trevor A wants to still around. Maybe you move him. Still does nothing to address center though.

[Dark Faze]

I prefer Curry over Walters. Just the pedigree, better competition and advanced stats make me think he's a stronger fit beside Satoransky assuming he makes the team.

[rockymac52]

You guys already quoted Chad Ford so Im not gonna quote it again but all signs are leading to Otto falling right to us barring some unforseen idiotic trade. Lets do it, then draft Erik Murphy and then we know EG will stash 1 away in Europe that will never come over!

Im on the Erik Murphy train too, but we havent even had him in for workouts.

Only two days to go. And it cant get here soon enough. I want to know what kind of team we are going to have next year.

How do they address.

We need.

A long strong defensive center 6-11 to 7-0
A 3rd guard with handles.

I like Otto, but still not seeing him as a better fit then Burke or VO. I guess Otto would make sense if Webster can really back up at SG.

I saw someone post that Webster was more efficient at SG then SF. Where did you get the data on that ? I didn't believe that to be true. I thought he was better at SF.

So maybe they go Otto and Wolter/Pierre

Wall/Wolter or Pierre
Beal/Webster/Temple
Trevor A/Otto
Nene/Ves/Booker/AJ
Okafor/Kevin

Singleton, 2nd 2nd unless they can trade Singleton with the 2nd 2nd and move up.

Then you see how things go. Maybe Trevor A wants to still around. Maybe you move him. Still does nothing to address center though.

Here's some statistical support on Webster being better at SG than SF. These stats don't definitively prove that notion, but they help.

2013: better at SG http://www.82games.com/1213/12WAS9.HTM
2012: mixed results http://www.82games.com/1112/11MIN6.HTM
2011: better at SF http://www.82games.com/1011/10MIN7.HTM

I guess there's some inconsistency there, partially the result of a small sample size. Make of it what you want. My take home message is that it appears that Webster is definitely capable of playing SG, even if he's not necessarily better at SG than SF.

[nate33]

In the Irish stretch 4 section, my preference is Ryan Kelly. Like Murphy, he's rebounding deficient, but he's a very underrated defensive player, and his 9'2 standing reach gives him an advantage over most PF's. He's going to slide because of rebounding, injuries, and his near 15 body fat %. Kelly's not a great athlete, but he looks quicker than Murphy. Getting healthy and in shape could make Kelly a major bargain.

Me too. I think Kelly is going to have a long NBA career. I'm assuming his high body fat is due to the injury. Obviously, if he's lazy, then he won't be a very good NBA player.

[rockymac52]

I'm happily sucked in and still hope we select Bennett, so no, talk is still happenin.

I too think Bennett is worthy of discussion and should be in consideration. I really like his potential and I like his fit here in terms of skill set and roster construction.

Agreed. I'm not necessarily on the Bennett bandwagon, although I think he's a top 5 talent. But he's still just as much in the mix as a possiblity at #3 as any of the other players we've been discussing. If there's no more to say about Bennett, then that's true of the others as well.

Here's my issue with taking Bennett with the 3rd pick: why not trade back with the T'Wolves and get the 9th pick, possibly the 26th pick as well, and Derrick Williams, who is clearly a very similar player to Bennett?

I understand that the people in the pro-Bennett camp probably think Bennett is going to be much better than D-Will at the NBA level, which would change your perspective on such a trade down, but honestly, what makes you guys think that Bennett will be significantly better than D-Will in the NBA? Why was D-Will such a disappointment, but Bennett won't fall into the same trap?

[LyricalRico]

Here's my issue with taking Bennett with the 3rd pick: why not trade back with the T'Wolves and get the 9th pick, possibly the 26th pick as well, and Derrick Williams, who is clearly a very similar player to Bennett?

I understand that the people in the pro-Bennett camp probably think Bennett is going to be much better than D-Will at the NBA level, which would change your perspective on such a trade down, but honestly, what makes you guys think that Bennett will be significantly better than D-Will in the NBA? Why was D-Will such a disappointment, but Bennett won't fall into the same trap?

This.

[sfam]

I think we've talked about Bennett at length. What more is there really to say?

We've talked about (INSERT RANDOM DRAFT PICK POSSIBILITY) at length. What more is there really to say?

Pretty much we're all just waiting for the pick now.

[stevemcqueen1]

In the Irish stretch 4 section, my preference is Ryan Kelly. Like Murphy, he's rebounding deficient, but he's a very underrated defensive player, and his 9'2 standing reach gives him an advantage over most PF's. He's going to slide because of rebounding, injuries, and his near 15 body fat %. Kelly's not a great athlete, but he looks quicker than Murphy. Getting healthy and in shape could make Kelly a major bargain.

I think the team already has a rebounding deficiency. Beal and Wall are great rebounders for their position. Okafor and Booker are physical rebounders that can eat the defensive glass. Nene is maybe average. Every one else is a subpar rebounder for their position.

If we're looking for a role playing big, I'd rather get one with size that specializes in defense and rebounding rather than distance shooting.

[popper]

You guys already quoted Chad Ford so Im not gonna quote it again but all signs are leading to Otto falling right to us barring some unforseen idiotic trade. Lets do it, then draft Erik Murphy and then we know EG will stash 1 away in Europe that will never come over!

Im on the Erik Murphy train too, but we havent even had him in for workouts.

Only two days to go. And it cant get here soon enough. I want to know what kind of team we are going to have next year.

How do they address.

We need.

A long strong defensive center 6-11 to 7-0
A 3rd guard with handles.

I like Otto, but still not seeing him as a better fit then Burke or VO. I guess Otto would make sense if Webster can really back up at SG.

I saw someone post that Webster was more efficient at SG then SF. Where did you get the data on that ? I didn't believe that to be true. I thought he was better at SF.

So maybe they go Otto and Wolter/Pierre

Wall/Wolter or Pierre
Beal/Webster/Temple
Trevor A/Otto
Nene/Ves/Booker/AJ
Okafor/Kevin

Singleton, 2nd 2nd unless they can trade Singleton with the 2nd 2nd and move up.

Then you see how things go. Maybe Trevor A wants to still around. Maybe you move him. Still does nothing to address center though.

Spot on Hands but I would add a developmental pf to your list of long center and third guard with handles (and a decent outside shot.)

[Ruzious]

I prefer Curry over Walters. Just the pedigree, better competition and advanced stats make me think he's a stronger fit beside Satoransky assuming he makes the team.

And Curry - while being small - isn't tiny - like he's usually categorized. He's just marginally smaller than his brother. The one physical category he falls short in compared to Steph is body fat % - what's up with Duke seniors not getting in shape? And while Seth is smaller than Wolters, their length is the same - Seth actually has a half inch advantage in wingspan. Seth is marked down correctly for being a small shooting guard. But with Wall here, it's not the problem it would be for most teams. I'd be happy getting both Dukees in the 2nd round. They will stretch the floor. Heck, they made Plumlee an effective scorer.

[Dark Faze]

I too think Bennett is worthy of discussion and should be in consideration. I really like his potential and I like his fit here in terms of skill set and roster construction.

Agreed. I'm not necessarily on the Bennett bandwagon, although I think he's a top 5 talent. But he's still just as much in the mix as a possiblity at #3 as any of the other players we've been discussing. If there's no more to say about Bennett, then that's true of the others as well.

Here's my issue with taking Bennett with the 3rd pick: why not trade back with the T'Wolves and get the 9th pick, possibly the 26th pick as well, and Derrick Williams, who is clearly a very similar player to Bennett?

I understand that the people in the pro-Bennett camp probably think Bennett is going to be much better than D-Will at the NBA level, which would change your perspective on such a trade down, but honestly, what makes you guys think that Bennett will be significantly better than D-Will in the NBA? Why was D-Will such a disappointment, but Bennett won't fall into the same trap?

I'm of a similar opinion. I'd rather get D-Will and draft Adams.

I still don't think either Bennett or D-Will are starters in the NBA though. At least not without an elite defensive minded C to back them up.

[stevemcqueen1]

I too think Bennett is worthy of discussion and should be in consideration. I really like his potential and I like his fit here in terms of skill set and roster construction.

Agreed. I'm not necessarily on the Bennett bandwagon, although I think he's a top 5 talent. But he's still just as much in the mix as a possiblity at #3 as any of the other players we've been discussing. If there's no more to say about Bennett, then that's true of the others as well.

Here's my issue with taking Bennett with the 3rd pick: why not trade back with the T'Wolves and get the 9th pick, possibly the 26th pick as well, and Derrick Williams, who is clearly a very similar player to Bennett?

I understand that the people in the pro-Bennett camp probably think Bennett is going to be much better than D-Will at the NBA level, which would change your perspective on such a trade down, but honestly, what makes you guys think that Bennett will be significantly better than D-Will in the NBA? Why was D-Will such a disappointment, but Bennett won't fall into the same trap?

DWill hasn't been very good. I think some of that was the team did not properly invest in him, they didn't give him a great opportunity to succeed. But I also don't think he was good enough to get himself on the court and make an impact elsewhere so he pigeonholed himself as Kevin Love's back up.

Maybe there are some off the court issues holding DWill back. Regardless, he's proving he's a disappointment.

I'm not really interested in using #3 to pick up some other team's failed project. I want to get our own man that we hand pick and can develop from day one.

And I do think Bennett is flat out better than DWill. They are different players, but Bennett is better talent IMO. I was never crazy about DWill. I think Bennett is a better athlete, better shooter, better rebounder, and better ball handler, a more creative offensive player. Derrick Williams never elicited the kind of LJ talk that Bennett has. He's not the same physical presence as Bennett.

If we're going to move back, I'd much rather move back slightly for Bennett than a veteran like DWill.

[rockymac52]

In the Irish stretch 4 section, my preference is Ryan Kelly. Like Murphy, he's rebounding deficient, but he's a very underrated defensive player, and his 9'2 standing reach gives him an advantage over most PF's. He's going to slide because of rebounding, injuries, and his near 15 body fat %. Kelly's not a great athlete, but he looks quicker than Murphy. Getting healthy and in shape could make Kelly a major bargain.

I think the team already has a rebounding deficiency. Beal and Wall are great rebounders for their position. Okafor and Booker are physical rebounders that can eat the defensive glass. Nene is maybe average. Every one else is a subpar rebounder for their position.

If we're looking for a role playing big, I'd rather get one with size that specializes in defense and rebounding rather than distance shooting.

Interesting points... I've thought about some of the same things in the past (specifically Wall and Beal being great rebounders for their positions), but I came to a different conclusion.

In my opinion, the fact that Wall and Beal are great rebounders for their positions means that we have some flexibility with how we assemble the rest of the roster. Traditionally you want both of your big men to be good at rebounding, to put things simply. However, the way I see it, since Wall and Beal are already giving us an advantage on the boards compared to other teams' back courts, I think this allows us to employ a non-traditional big man, as in, a big man who might be below average at rebounding, but excels at other aspects of the game. Then the added bonus on the boards you get from Wall and Beal counteracts the deficiency on the boards with your big man, and they more or less even it all out. On the other hand, you could do what you suggest, and acquire a big man who's a very good rebounder as well, making our advantage on the boards a very legitimate strength. I think both strategies have some merit. The better rebounding we have, the better. But if we can get average rebounding as well as an excellent 3 point shooter or some other unique skill, then that might be better as a whole.