Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII

[nate33]

Continued from here

link to all 7 previous 2013 Draft Threads

Part I
Part II
Part III
Part IV
Part V
Part VI
Part VII

[Samuels]

OTTO PORTER is a no brainer pick. He is the most complete all around player in this draft. He does'nt need to be cuddled or yelled it. He is self motivated.

Bennett is a incredibly talented offensively but takes some horrible shots at times. He can play defense the talent is there but he doesn't play hard and has 0 defensive awareness. I've seen the other team grab a board and take off scoring and he never even got across half court on more then one occasion that's effort.

[hands11]

Continued from here

link to all 7 previous 2013 Draft Threads

Part I
Part II
Part III
Part IV
Part V
Part VI
Part VII

Thanks Nate

[Dat2U]

Reading the end of the last draft thread, I think Bennett's strength as an ISO player has been greatly overrated. His handles and ability to create shots is very solid for a 250 Ibs but his handle is not elite. It's very good for a big man but only average for your typical SF. Plus if your an unwilling passer like Bennett is, a team can't fully take advantage of those skills when defenses key on him.

[DCsOwn]

People that are claiming that Leonard is an elite athlete or was viewed as such coming out of college are revising history. He was thought to be physically gifted, primarily because of his physical dimensions (long arms, huge hands etc.) He actually had a VERY pedestrian Combine, and in fact, Porter's numbers surpass his in every athletic measurement except for the 3/4 court sprint. I know that Combine measurements aren't the end all be all, but typically elite athletes put up at least above average numbers at the Combine and Leonard didnt do that.

As someone that watched Porter play every second of every game since he arrived at the Hilltop, let me give you my evaluation of Porter. First off, he's a better athlete than people give him credit for. He doesn't often do it, but when he power jumps, he has a wide range, even for NBA small forwards in terms of his max reach vertically. I've seen him dunk put backs over traffic, catch a ball underneath the basket and power up off of one step to dunk the ball with some authority, block shots around the basket etc. He's also. Much quicker laterally than people think. His agility time was better than Kawhi Leonard's, and he did a terrific job keeping some pretty talented players in front of him in isolation situations. He completely shut down CJ Fair in their first two meetings, and Fair is going to be a mid-first pick next year and had a tremendous season for Syracuse.

He also is MUCH more skilled than most people are giving him credit for. His mid-range game is one of the best ive seen in years from a young three, he's essentially been trained like a European kid by his father from a fundamental perspective and Georgetown practices like a Euro club as well in that they require everyone on the roster to work on relatively advanced ball handling, shooting and passing drills every practice. He can literally score in any way from midrange. Pull ups, face ups, coming off of screens, off glass shots from the odd angle, stepping off of a pick while handling the ball, turnarounds and even long push shots. He extended his range last season as his statistics show, and in college at least he was VERY formidable on the block. He's very crafty around the basket and he's a very skilled finisher from anywhere inside of 18 feet really. He destroyed UCLA and Notre Dame with myriad back to the basket moves, from hook shots to quick step throughs. He'll need to get appreciably stronger for this part of his game to translate, but he will and it will imo.

From a ball handling perspective, he's not great though. He can isolate and face his man up or go around him on occasion, but he's not a break a defense down consistently type of threat. Think Bradley Beal in play style from a handling perspective. He can rebound the ball and push it up the court, he sees the court well even on the move and he passes the ball extremely well from anywhere. One of the underrated benefits of drafting Porter is how well we'll move the ball with John, Brad, Nene and Porter on the floor at once. We're going to look like the Spurs in a season or two. That is a TREMENDOUS passing group and it's going to be a fantastic departure from the Blatche/McGee/Young days. It's going to be absolutely beautiful to watch truly high IQ basketball being played in DC.

Anyway, he's not a perfect player, he has to get stronger, he has to (and will given his work ethic) improve his ball handling and he's not a truly exceptional athlete, but he is physically gifted in the Kawhi Leonard mold (theyre not doppelgängers, but they are reasonable facsimiles), he is a TREMENDOUSLY intelligent player on the court that is very skilled in virtually every facet of basketball, and he has tremendous intangibles that are going to make him a very valuable player at the next level.

[stevemcqueen1]

From the last thread, Consiglieri wrote in reference to dealing for MKG:

So would I. I wonder what could get it done? I know we wouldn't be smart enough to do it, but man, I'd swing a deal for MKG in a second if there was a way to make it work. Problem with your scenario is that it definitely sounds as if the trade would be contingent on getting Porter, or some elite upside capable 3.

I think MKG will probably be a better player than Porter in a vacuum. Porter couldn't have gone second overall in last year's class, that's for sure.

But I don't think MKG would be a better fit for the Wizards than Porter because he can't shoot. You can't put two streak shooters or sub par shooters on the perimeter together without running into spacing issues. Particularly in the postseason. Even the mighty Heat had huge issues playing Wade and LeBron on the floor together. It's been a constant issue for Chicago, good as they are. And it was an issue for Indiana. You're creating a counterproductive offensive situation playing Wall and MKG together by making it harder for Wall to do his thing. You'd be better off playing Webster at SF on offense.

I don't think we can entertain adding any SF that isn't a credible shooter. The defense has to guard him when he doesn't have the ball.

[Dat2U]

People that are claiming that Leonard is an elite athlete or was viewed as such coming out of college are revising history. He was thought to be physically gifted, primarily because of his physical dimensions (long arms, huge hands etc.) He actually had a VERY pedestrian Combine, and in fact, Porter's numbers surpass his in every athletic measurement except for the 3/4 court sprint. I know that Combine measurements aren't the end all be all, but typically elite athletes put up at least above average numbers at the Combine and Leonard didnt do that.

Excellent point. Leonard had a disappointing combine and was also known as a poor finisher at the rim. It was surmised by many at the time (including myself) that he wasn't incredibly athletic but was his explosive plays came more from his incredible length for the position.

Leonard was not nearly the prospect Porter was coming out of college.

Leonard's 0.889 points per possession overall ranks third worst of the 17 wings we evaluated, and his adjusted field goal percentage of 46.3% ranks dead last, a strong illustration of his scoring woes. On the positive side, Leonard's overall turnover percentage of 11.8% ranks third best in the class, and he could actually even stand to improve at the next level when he's projected to have even less shot creation responsibility initially.

Another interesting note looking at Leonard's possessions is that only 13% of his possessions came in transition, which ranks him 13th overall in the group. Leonard played on one of the slowest-paced teams in college basketball, likely due to his team's mediocre guard play. For a player with his physical tools, this is less than ideal, and he could certainly see a spike in that regard at the next level, which should help his overall efficiency.

In the half-court, Leonard ranks seventh of all wings in the percentage of his possessions coming from isolations, at 15%. His .721 PPP on these possessions ranks 15th, indicating that he struggled to create shots effectively for himself last season. He was unable to get to the free throw line consistently (11.3%, 12th) for many of these same reasons, and did not finish around the basket at a high rate, where his 1.069 PPS ranked 13th.

If Leonard ever does develop into a more reliable isolation threat, improving his left hand should be among his top priorities, as despite seeing a near equal breakdown of drives in both directions (37 possessions going right, 35 going left), Leonard's efficiency going right (0.865 PPP) more than doubled his efficiency going left (0.429 PPP).

Leonard is not only an average ball-handler, but he also struggles to make shots consistently from beyond the arc. His 0.743 points per shots on jumpers ranks 16th of 17 in the class, where he shot an abysmal 31% from the field. His struggles extend both to his catch and shoot jumpers (32%) and pull-ups (28%).

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2XKNlgxbQ
http://www.draftexpress.com

[DCsOwn]

From the last thread, Consiglieri wrote in reference to dealing for MKG:

So would I. I wonder what could get it done? I know we wouldn't be smart enough to do it, but man, I'd swing a deal for MKG in a second if there was a way to make it work. Problem with your scenario is that it definitely sounds as if the trade would be contingent on getting Porter, or some elite upside capable 3.

I think MKG will probably be a better player than Porter in a vacuum. Porter couldn't have gone second overall in last year's class, that's for sure.

But I don't think MKG would be a better fit for the Wizards than Porter because he can't shoot. You can't put two streak shooters or sub par shooters on the perimeter together without running into spacing issues. Particularly in the postseason. Even the mighty Heat had huge issues playing Wade and LeBron on the floor together. It's been a constant issue for Chicago, good as they are. And it was an issue for Indiana. You're creating a counterproductive offensive situation playing Wall and MKG together by making it harder for Wall to do his thing. You'd be better off playing Webster at SF on offense.

I don't think we can entertain adding any SF that isn't a credible shooter. The defense has to guard him when he doesn't have the ball.

I agree with the bulk of what you posted, but tbh, I and others were on record as saying that MKG had no business going second in last years draft either. He has an irretrievably broken jump shot and that's going to severely limit his impact at the next level. In college he was such a better physical talent than other kids that he could just beast them and it made for some sensational moments in his collegiate career, but that ability is definitely circumscribed at the next level. I'd actually think very hard about taking Porter over just him in a vacuum becasue Porter is by leagues a more natural scorer while also possessing a complete game, albeit without MKGs dynamism.

[stevemcqueen1]

Reading the end of the last draft thread, I think Bennett's strength as an ISO player has been greatly overrated. His handles and ability to create shots is very solid for a 250 Ibs but his handle is not elite. It's very good for a big man but only average for your typical SF. Plus if your an unwilling passer like Bennett is, a team can't fully take advantage of those skills when defenses key on him.

Bennett's handles are an obvious, self evident strength. When I read arguments saying they aren't, it says to me that person has lost objectivity because of whatever agenda they've got or they never actually watched him play. He successfully attacked multiple defenders with his dribble more often than any forward in this class and he's got better slashing ability than some of the top guards in the class.

There is no, Bennett's handles are effective, caveat: for a 250 pounder. They're effective, period, in part because he's 240 pounds. Why do you think LeBron is such an effective slasher? How often does he cross people over or use liquid sizeup and hesitation moves to break his man's ankles and get around him? Almost never. He doesn't have to, he bulls his way to the rim using sheer speed and strength because he can. Bennett can get rolling down hill too and just bull his way to the rim and finish over people. Strength matters as much as speed or skill for slashers.

Bennett's not selfish either. UNLV was a free shooting team of gunners, you can point to his guards and teammates being unwilling passers. When you've got Katin Reinhardt and Bryce Jones chucking away for low efficiency, there is the source of your efficiency and ball movement issues. Bennett was the top scoring option and finished the looks he got with excellent efficiency. That was his role.

[DCsOwn]

People that are claiming that Leonard is an elite athlete or was viewed as such coming out of college are revising history. He was thought to be physically gifted, primarily because of his physical dimensions (long arms, huge hands etc.) He actually had a VERY pedestrian Combine, and in fact, Porter's numbers surpass his in every athletic measurement except for the 3/4 court sprint. I know that Combine measurements aren't the end all be all, but typically elite athletes put up at least above average numbers at the Combine and Leonard didnt do that.

Excellent point. Leonard had a disappointing combine and was also known as a poor finisher at the rim. It was surmised by many at the time (including myself) that he wasn't incredibly athletic but was his explosive plays came more from his incredible length for the position.

Leonard was not nearly the prospect Porter was coming out of college.

Leonard's 0.889 points per possession overall ranks third worst of the 17 wings we evaluated, and his adjusted field goal percentage of 46.3% ranks dead last, a strong illustration of his scoring woes. On the positive side, Leonard's overall turnover percentage of 11.8% ranks third best in the class, and he could actually even stand to improve at the next level when he's projected to have even less shot creation responsibility initially.

Another interesting note looking at Leonard's possessions is that only 13% of his possessions came in transition, which ranks him 13th overall in the group. Leonard played on one of the slowest-paced teams in college basketball, likely due to his team's mediocre guard play. For a player with his physical tools, this is less than ideal, and he could certainly see a spike in that regard at the next level, which should help his overall efficiency.

In the half-court, Leonard ranks seventh of all wings in the percentage of his possessions coming from isolations, at 15%. His .721 PPP on these possessions ranks 15th, indicating that he struggled to create shots effectively for himself last season. He was unable to get to the free throw line consistently (11.3%, 12th) for many of these same reasons, and did not finish around the basket at a high rate, where his 1.069 PPS ranked 13th.

If Leonard ever does develop into a more reliable isolation threat, improving his left hand should be among his top priorities, as despite seeing a near equal breakdown of drives in both directions (37 possessions going right, 35 going left), Leonard's efficiency going right (0.865 PPP) more than doubled his efficiency going left (0.429 PPP).

Leonard is not only an average ball-handler, but he also struggles to make shots consistently from beyond the arc. His 0.743 points per shots on jumpers ranks 16th of 17 in the class, where he shot an abysmal 31% from the field. His struggles extend both to his catch and shoot jumpers (32%) and pull-ups (28%).

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2XKNlgxbQ
http://www.draftexpress.com

Agreed. He had an extremely protectable frame, he played extremely hard, he played very good defense and rebounded at an insane rate. That was Kawhi Leonard in a nutshell coming out of college. He slipped to 15 because a lot of evaluators questioned his skill level and his ability to be anything more than a high end role player.

[tontoz]

EG has a history of thinking short term. He may be thinking that the Wizards are fine at the 3 since they already have Ariza and he may be confident of resigning Webster. Given that, I think there is a good chance Bennett is the pick.

I disagree that Ariza/Webster should even factor in to the decision at all, but this is EG we are talking about.

I think Porter should be the pick. As others have said there are several things that have to go right in order for Bennett to be the right pick.

[fishercob]

EG has a history of thinking short term. He may be thinking that the Wizards are fine at the 3 since they already have Ariza and he may be confident of resigning Webster. Given that, I think there is a good chance Bennett is the pick.

I disagree that Ariza/Webster should even factor in to the decision at all, but this is EG we are talking about.

I think Porter should be the pick. As others have said there are several things that have to go right in order for Bennett to be the right pick.

Michael Lee ‏@MrMichaelLee 1m
Ernie Grunfeld: “We’re going to take the player that we feel is going to help us the most long term.” http://wapo.st/19tjMv1 #wizards

[stevemcqueen1]

OTTO PORTER is a no brainer pick. He is the most complete all around player in this draft. He does'nt need to be cuddled or yelled it. He is self motivated.

Bennett is a incredibly talented offensively but takes some horrible shots at times. He can play defense the talent is there but he doesn't play hard and has 0 defensive awareness. I've seen the other team grab a board and take off scoring and he never even got across half court on more then one occasion that's effort.

Bennett was very efficient. If bad shot selection was an issue for him, you'd see it in his numbers.

That UNLV team was young and full of gunners too. Anthony Marshall was pretty good but he had a tendency to stop the ball by over dribbling and then you don't have time to find a good shot. Bryce Jones and Katin Reinhardt were big chuckers still learning how to play the college game. There was an atmosphere of selfish offensive play there and Bennett was the most patient and efficient offensive player on his team by a long shot.

I agree with you about his defensive effort being poor at times. It's an issue. But Blake Griffin's defensive effort was pretty lousy too before he got to the NBA. It's not a deal breaker.

I agree that Porter is the best option as the best all around player at three, but Bennett is close. I too like that Porter is low maintenance and ready to be a pro day one. Bennett has more scoring ability though and he can play PF full time. If you're willing to put in the work to develop him and be patient through the growing pains, you could end up with an awesome offensive weapon in the front court.

[Rafael122]

EG has a history of thinking short term. He may be thinking that the Wizards are fine at the 3 since they already have Ariza and he may be confident of resigning Webster. Given that, I think there is a good chance Bennett is the pick.

I disagree that Ariza/Webster should even factor in to the decision at all, but this is EG we are talking about.

I think Porter should be the pick. As others have said there are several things that have to go right in order for Bennett to be the right pick.

For me its pretty difficult to sit here and draft a guy who hasn't been able to work out, has gained almost 20 pounds in a month, questions about his motor and defensive awareness and the only thing you have is a year worth of tape to look at. What justification is there? And I'm not trying to turn this into a Porter vs. Bennett situation, rather you have film on 1 guy for the last 2 years (Porter, or Len or CJ, etc), went through the measurements, the combine, etc. I don't get it.

BTW, I'm totally not saying it's Bennett's fault for getting hurt. **** happens. But this is the 3rd pick, a spot where you are probably drafting a near franchise-caliber type of player or at least a major piece. Ernie picking Bennett is a huge risk when you look at the potential red flags.

[Ruzious]

EG has a history of thinking short term. He may be thinking that the Wizards are fine at the 3 since they already have Ariza and he may be confident of resigning Webster. Given that, I think there is a good chance Bennett is the pick.

I disagree that Ariza/Webster should even factor in to the decision at all, but this is EG we are talking about.

I think Porter should be the pick. As others have said there are several things that have to go right in order for Bennett to be the right pick.

Michael Lee ‏@MrMichaelLee 1m
Ernie Grunfeld: “We’re going to take the player that we feel is going to help us the most long term.” http://wapo.st/19tjMv1 #wizards

By him adding the words "long term", does that mean Alex Len? Considering that Porter and even Bennett should be productive rookies (if one gains weight and the other loses weight) - why would he make a point of saying long term?

[Dark Faze]

The entire reason I have doubts about Porter at the next level are inextricably linked to the particular qualities Leonard had, that Porter doesn't, namely, elite level athleticism, and outstanding defense that was projectable to the next level (there's a lot of sentiment out there that Porter's good to very good defense in college will be merely league average to above average at the next level due to the athleticism related issues). I love many things about Porter, but the precise reason I, and many others have concerns about him are precisely the things he lacked that Leonard had, which were elite at the next level qualities. Sure Porter was a better college player than Leonard. So what. Leonard was drafted based on his known skill set+projectable athletic ability, wherever Porter's drafted, it will be inspite of those characteristics which are lacking in him, but were present in Leonard.

Its not remotely disingenuous.

If being a better college player defined who was successful or not at the next level, the draft would be easy as hell. It isn't, because being a better college player, or a great college player doesn't necessarily mean squat when you jump up several levels in talent to the NBA.

So basically it all comes down to athleticism, despite the fact that some of the best man defenders of the last 10 years have been average to simply above average athletically--Bruce Bowen, Raja Bell, Tayshaun Prince, Shane Battier, older Ron Artest, Aaron Afflalo, etc.

The sort of system that Porter played in really can't be understated. Defensive focused, almost primarily in the half court (very very low percentage of his points scored were in transition), slow paced, and yet he still had high foul rates.

That bodes well for his offensive potential in a faster paced system that will get out in transition.

[MikeTheKid]

Wally Szczerbiak just said on 106.7 that Otto is the best fit but Anthony Bennett has top 3 star potential in the draft. He wants Otto but thinks Bennett is the star!

[fishercob]

By him adding the words "long term", does that mean Alex Len? Considering that Porter and even Bennett should be productive rookies (if one gains weight and the other loses weight) - why would he make a point of saying long term?

Could mean any one of a number of things. Could mean that they're not going to pass on Noel if he's there just because he's out until Christmas. Could mean they're taking Giannis Adetokunbo

[Dat2U]

Reading the end of the last draft thread, I think Bennett's strength as an ISO player has been greatly overrated. His handles and ability to create shots is very solid for a 250 Ibs but his handle is not elite. It's very good for a big man but only average for your typical SF. Plus if your an unwilling passer like Bennett is, a team can't fully take advantage of those skills when defenses key on him.

Bennett's handles are an obvious, self evident strength. When I read arguments saying they aren't, it says to me that person has lost objectivity because of whatever agenda they've got or they never actually watched him play. He successfully attacked multiple defenders with his dribble more often than any forward in this class and he's got better slashing ability than some of the top guards in the class.

There is no, Bennett's handles are effective, caveat: for a 250 pounder. They're effective, period, in part because he's 240 pounds. Why do you think LeBron is such an effective slasher? How often does he cross people over or use liquid sizeup and hesitation moves to break his man's ankles and get around him? Almost never. He doesn't have to, he bulls his way to the rim using sheer speed and strength because he can. Bennett can get rolling down hill too and just bull his way to the rim and finish over people. Strength matters as much as speed or skill for slashers.

Bennett's not selfish either. UNLV was a free shooting team of gunners, you can point to his guards and teammates being unwilling passers. When you've got Katin Reinhardt and Bryce Jones chucking away for low efficiency, there is the source of your efficiency and ball movement issues. Bennett was the top scoring option and finished the looks he got with excellent efficiency. That was his role.

First off, you need to take LeBron out the equation, because him & Bennett aren't in the same ballpark on any level. You kill your own arguments when invoking his name as a comparable standard, it can't be taken seriously because it's not comparable. It's like comparing apples and oranges.

Secondly, Bennett is a straight line slasher. As you mentioned, he doesn't really show any advanced dribbling moves to create space or get into the lane. That's fine in the Mountain West but in the NBA you can't bull over or explode by every defender, even with your example, LeBron effectively uses multiple moves to attack off the bounce. LeBron is not a straight line slasher. LeBron handles are elite. He can get the rack any number of ways other than just bulling people over.

Thirdly, you can make the claim Bennett is not selfish but what is this actually based on? Your objectivity??? The numbers show that passing is not something he accustomed to doing. Maybe he acquires that trait at the next level, maybe he doesn't. But he played like passing was only a last resort, I don't know how you dismiss it by blaming his teammates.

[tontoz]

EG has a history of thinking short term. He may be thinking that the Wizards are fine at the 3 since they already have Ariza and he may be confident of resigning Webster. Given that, I think there is a good chance Bennett is the pick.

I disagree that Ariza/Webster should even factor in to the decision at all, but this is EG we are talking about.

I think Porter should be the pick. As others have said there are several things that have to go right in order for Bennett to be the right pick.

Michael Lee ‏@MrMichaelLee 1m
Ernie Grunfeld: “We’re going to take the player that we feel is going to help us the most long term.” http://wapo.st/19tjMv1 #wizards

By him adding the words "long term", does that mean Alex Len? Considering that Porter and even Bennett should be productive rookies (if one gains weight and the other loses weight) - why would he make a point of saying long term?

A day before the draft i am not taking any of his comments very seriously but i still can't help but be a bit paranoid. Drafting Len at 3 would be very tough to swallow.