rockymac52 wrote:Can we talk about Phil Pressey real quick? Obviously there's a good chance that we draft a PG with one of our 2nd round picks, and this year there's a solid handful of about 8 guys that might be on the board at 38 and would fill that need. However, Pressey tends to be on the lower end of that group, projecting to be taken in the 50s or possibly go undrafted. That means it'd likely be a stretch to take him at 38, but he could realistically be available at 54, allowing us to trade the 38th pick, draft and stash, or take a big man there.
Before I dive into it, I have to establish that I am somewhat biased, because I went to Mizzou for Phil's first 2 years, and I always think it'd be fun to see the Wizards draft a Mizzou player. However, it's worth noting that my bias with Pressey might actually work against him. Yes, I've seen him at his very best, and I am fully aware of all of the spectacular things he is capable of doing with a basketball, but on the other hand, I also am very aware of his weaknesses, many of which became evident this past season when he was thrust into an even bigger role, and for the most part, he failed.
For what it's worth, whenever Pressey was mentioned in the last 2 years on this board, I think I was pretty consistent in evaluating him, noting that he has considerable upside, but that he's got some serious flaws that led him to be overrated, and I was skeptical of his future NBA potential. After this disastrous junior season this past year, he fell from projected late 1st round pick, to projected late 2nd round pick/undrafted. It became pointless to really analyze him, and as such, most of you have stopped talking about him as well. But recently I came across a highlight video of Pressey that got me somewhat nostalgic, reliving all of the great things he's done in the last three years, and so I decided it was only fair that I reconsider him and give him a fair evaluation one last time.
Now that I've given him a second look, I'm more torn than ever. As a whole, he has his flaws, and I don't think he's going to become a star PG at the next level or anything like that. But I do believe that he could be overlooked this year, and as such, might be a solid option for us going forward. I think taking him at 38 is too much still, and he'd be a better pick at 54 if he's still available.
To his credit, Pressey was the starting PG that led one of the all-time most efficient offenses in college basketball in the 2012 Mizzou Tigers. However, Pressey was in many ways the one guy who was holding them back from being even more dominant offensively. This was in large part the result of a high turnover rate, and inexplicably inefficient transition possessions. Pressey passes the eye test in large part, in fact, he often showcases his elite ball-handling and passing skills, and he can appear very very promising to the untrained eye, as he did as a sophomore on that 2012 Mizzou team, leading to the designation of pre-season SEC Player of the Year last season. He got a little too much credit for that team's success, and his flaws were widely overlooked, partly because he passed the eye test so damn well. Seriously, check out some of his highlight reels on YouTube if you want to be wow-ed.
As far as how good he actually is/can be, there's a bit of a mixed bag. There's no denying that he's going to have issues defensively at the next level. That is pretty much a given for a 5'9" PG. However, there's also no denying that he gets after it defensively, and shows a lot of the skills you want to see in a great on-ball defender. But he had these skills in college, and even then, his lack of size proved to be a serious issue, especially on defense. As a result, it's pretty safe to say that he's going to be a liability defensively in the NBA.
However, his offense might be able to make up for that. His biggest criticism offensively is probably his turnovers, especially late in the game in crucial "clutch" situations. However, let's be real, as long as John Wall is still breathing, Pressey wouldn't be seeing any late-game minutes other than in blowouts, so his late-game turnovers wouldn't really be an issue. I don't have any facts to support the notion that his turnover rate increased substantially in late-game situations though, so I can't say for sure that it will matter. Even if his turnover rate is high regardless of the situation, that's not a good thing, but it's something that can improve over time.
He was also often criticized for his lack of a jump shot, but I think those criticisms are wildly off base. He had one of the most efficient mid-range jumpers in all of the NCAA, scoring .96 PPP (86th percentile). He wasn't nearly as efficient from 3, but the good news is that the 3 point shot will still be a legitimate threat in the NBA, because the kid can shoot from anywhere in the gym. He frequently pulled up (inexplicably, and to the annoyance of the fan base) from DEEP, well beyond the college 3 point line, and he sunk these shots with ease at times throughout his college career. So while his efficiency from 3 pointers might leave a little to be desired, at least he is capable of making 3s from the NBA line, and it would be reasonable to believe his efficiency on his long-range jumper could improve over time.
With Pressey, I see a viable option for our backup PG. Not a sure thing, but a guy I'd be happy to take a flyer on (which, with the 54th pick, we'd essentially be doing). I see a guy with a great mid-range jumper, a capable 3 point jumper, a guy who can score off the dribble, and a guy who can excel in the pick and roll game. The way he weaves in and out of the pick and roll reminds me of Tony Parker. That's where his elite ball-handling and passing skills really come into play. He also sees the court very well, and will rocket passes through the defense to find open shooters that you didn't even realize were there. He was also a great spot up shooter when he played off the ball, in a limited capacity. I can see him blossoming into that spark plug PG off the bench type role. He has shown an ability to be both a pass-first and shoot-first PG, and I like that flexibility going forward. It makes him a legitimate threat to opposing defenses.
There's also something to be said about his teammate's efficiency numbers with him at the point. They've been phenomenal. Kim English, Marcus Denmon, RiCardo Ratliffe, Mike Dixon, Laurence Bowers, and Alex Oriakhi all posted truly elite offensive efficiencies with Pressey at PG. That's not necessarily the result of Pressey's presence, but it might be.
I know I haven't really done a great job at selling him here, as I've focused on a lot of his weaknesses, but I hope you guys give him a look and let me know what you think. If we don't draft a PG at 38, I'd like to see us take a flyer on Pressey at 54 (or as an undrafted FA, if that's how it goes down).
Cliffs?
I want to start reading your posts, but they are longer than WizD's. Can you just highlight the important stuff? Thanks.
