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Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII

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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#161 » by dobrojim » Wed Jun 26, 2013 6:37 pm

Mizerooskie wrote:Work habits and defensive assignments are teachable and coachable. That's why they're dismissed. Mental maturation is natural to expect from a 20 year old.

Athleticism and talent aren't coachable.

The crux of the argument is raw talent vs. polished maturity. Do you want a more finished product or greater upside?


I think one could just as easily make the reciprocal argument.

One's mental willingness and BBIQ (assignments) are less coachable or fixable
than fractional advantage in athleticism that one prospect may have over another.
These are largely great athletes every one of them.

What you want is the mental makeup that sublimates individual for team success
during games but has a white hot desire to never be out-worked when it comes to
both physical and mental preparation for the games.
A lot of what we call 'thought' is just mental activity

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Those who are convinced of absurdities, can be convinced to commit atrocities
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#162 » by popper » Wed Jun 26, 2013 6:39 pm

dobrojim wrote:I think to a certain extent the anti-Bennett crowd, at least if they reason the way I
have been on AB, is dismissing his elite-ness in ball handling and scoring inside
partly because while it may still be decent or above average at the next level, the fact that
he is a tweener and that he succeeded in college based on physicality
(he does have a pro body, except for length, an important characteristic)
but that he will have much greater difficulty in doing those same things
in the NBA where there are lots of big strong fast guys as well as great
team schemes for defending the interior.

I certainly won't root for him to fail if he is our pick
(I'm not a Republican, sorry couldn't resist)
but would be somewhat more anxious about what he might end up
doing for us.


You're testing me Jim. Meet me on the "Political Roundtable" thread and we'll sort things out.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#163 » by Dark Faze » Wed Jun 26, 2013 6:44 pm

Mizerooskie wrote:
Dark Faze wrote:I think guys who seem overzealous in their arguments against Bennett do so because his supporters simply dismiss the numerous issues that are waged against him instead of actually addressing it.

Injury prone? " No comment "
Lack of defensive effort? " But did the coach even ask him to play D? "
Gained twenty pounds despite having two fully functional legs? " He doesn't have time to stay in shape due to flying around for interviews"

With Porter, guys tell me he's unathletic compared to Kawhi and we post the numbers saying differently. People say he has limited upside offensively, we point to player similarities in Kawhi and Tayshaun that were huge parts of NBA finals or playoff teams.

There's a lot of dismissive, I hope type defensive argument in support of Bennett.
Work habits and defensive assignments are teachable and coachable. That's why they're dismissed. Mental maturation is natural to expect from a 20 year old.

Athleticism and talent aren't coachable.

The crux of the argument is raw talent vs. polished maturity. Do you want a more finished product or greater upside?


We might as well just shut down the thread then if we aren't allowed to analyze prospects based on anything besides athleticism and "raw talent" since literally every aspect of basketball besides those things are teachable.

Lets just trade our pick by 10 second rounders and coach them up.

Newsflash bro, defense is a skill that has to be honed from day 1 just like dribbling and shooting. If you didn't show any skill at it against inferior competition then you will look far far worse against significantly better comp in the pros.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#164 » by The Consiglieri » Wed Jun 26, 2013 6:44 pm

Ownership of hits and misses since 2009 draft:

Right and wrongs:

'07:
Supported the Young pick as one of the best values left on the board. Was essentially right about that.

'08:
Backed the McGee pick being that I lived an hour from UNR and saw him play in limited minutes. great value at slot.

Roof Falls in, Lotto Zone evals:

'09:
My top 5:

1. Griffin
2. Rubio
3. Harden
4. Curry
5. Thabeet
(6). Evans

Big errors:did not sniff out Thabeet's issues, and underrated Evans a bit. Overrated Jordan Hill, underrated DeRozan, Lawson, and Hansborough.

Big Hits: Correctly evaluated Rubio, Curry, Jennings and Harden, Hated Johnny Flynn, and viewed his selection as idiotic. Ripped to pieces the Wizards trade @ the time and forever after.

'10:
1. Wall
2. Turner
3. Favors
4. Cousins
5. Monroe

Big hits: Loved Wall, Favors, and Cousins, correctly viewed Johnson, and Babbit as mega busts (saw Babbit and best bud played with Babbit when Babbit was in high school as a coach-due to UNR connection)

Big misses: overrated Turner based on his work rate, habits, and tough guy story (being a great guy with great character does not imply greatness), underrated the hell out of Paul George, and Larry Sanders.

'11:

1. Irving
2. Kantner
3. Valunciunas
4. D. Williams
5. K. Walker

Big Hits: correctly viewed Valunciunas as a trade up target, loved Leonard, Faried (due to CCJ getting me to watch him at tourney, even if he did foul on that last second 3 pointer) , T. Harris, K. Thompson, Motiejunas, Mirotic, Brooks, Cole, and Butler,

Correctly ripped: Morris twins, especially Marcus, Fredette and Nolan Smith "feel good story" lazy idiot picks

Big Misses: Figured EG must know what he was doing with Vesely and never imagined he was anywhere near as bad as he was, though I was irate we didn't trade up for Valunciunas or Kantner.

Totally missed on Vucevic never considering him, liked Singleton almost as much as Faried and was fine w/the pick. Also liked Tyler Honeycutt as a 2nd rounder.

2012:
My top 5:
1. Davis
2. MKG
3. Beal
4. Robinson
5. Drummond

Big hits: Drummond, loved Drummond, accepted that we wouldn't draft him because of the rumored knucklehead factor, and the love for the game factor and the offensive issues. Seems like I got the top 5 mostly right though I underrated Lilard, Beal, and Barnes, and overrated MKG and Robinson based on leadership qualities. Also ripped Sully all season as a prospect.

Big misses: Robinson, I didn't like him because of the Morris issue, and not forcing himself into the starting lineup earlier, huge red flag to me, but his ownership of the Kansas failure in the big-12 tourney, and his determination to make up for it in the NCAA's as quoted in an interview 15 months ago really won me over and put him in my top 5 against better judgment. I was wrong to let sentimentality and love for character lift a player that didn't have the talent to justify said lifting.

Other misses; Really really really hated on Barnes. Only thing to get me to temper Barnes hate was the fact that he tested so well at the combine. Where was that athleticism on the court? Why did he look so ordinary as an athlete if he tested so well? He landed in a great situation, and limited minutes suggest small sample size in terms of his very good rookie year, but still, I feel I need to own that missed on him.

I also underrated Lilard, who I believe CCJ adored. Didn't really rate Waiters as worthy of a top 7 pick, let alone top 4 and I think I was wrong on that too. John Henson was also underrated by me, though I viewed him as a steal at #14.

Loved PJIII, and thought he was a steal (though I still do, just no evidence to support that yet). Also the 2nd round loathing of our move, instead of Quincy Miller, Barton, Crowder, or Denmon. So far, Satoransky while nothing special, isn't any worse than any of the other guys. Perhaps opportunity will define if any of the board favorites should have been the pick?

Anyway, that's what I can remember, to the best of my ability, can't remember w/absolute certainty, but that feels accurate.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#165 » by Soup's Uncle » Wed Jun 26, 2013 6:45 pm

Mizerooskie wrote:Have we gotten any updated measurements on Bennett? I know the assumption is that he's a tweener based on some older measurements, but is it still true?


I heard both 6'5" and 6'6" w/o shoes. 6'7" with. And his playing weight was 240ish. Now he's 260 cus he likes to eat.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#166 » by The Consiglieri » Wed Jun 26, 2013 6:46 pm

On an unrelated horrible topic, Aaron Hernandez charged w/murder, cut by patriots. Insane. I cannot believe he allegedly did this (in terms of shock, not judgment of evidence). Just insane, a la Rae Carruth 14 years ago.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#167 » by Soup's Uncle » Wed Jun 26, 2013 6:48 pm

The Consiglieri wrote:On an unrelated horrible topic, Aaron Hernandez charged w/murder, cut by patriots. Insane. I cannot believe he allegedly did this (in terms of shock, not judgment of evidence). Just insane, a la Rae Carruth 14 years ago.

Yeah. He's gotta be guilty. You don't destroy your phone/security system if you aren't. He's going to prison.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#168 » by popper » Wed Jun 26, 2013 6:51 pm

Soup's Uncle wrote:
Mizerooskie wrote:Have we gotten any updated measurements on Bennett? I know the assumption is that he's a tweener based on some older measurements, but is it still true?


I heard both 6'5" and 6'6" w/o shoes. 6'7" with. And his playing weight was 240ish. Now he's 260 cus he likes to eat.


I remember Soup. Are you really his uncle?
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#169 » by Severn Hoos » Wed Jun 26, 2013 6:51 pm

fishercob wrote:
Severn Hoos wrote:
fishercob wrote:This is some John Nash Beautiful Mind stuff.



Please don't mention John Nash so close to the draft.



I think we share a brain sometimes.



That is soooo weird, because I was just going to say the exact same thing! :o
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#170 » by The Consiglieri » Wed Jun 26, 2013 6:58 pm

Dark Faze wrote:I think guys who seem overzealous in their arguments against Bennett do so because his supporters simply dismiss the numerous issues that are waged against him instead of actually addressing it.

Injury prone? " No comment "
Lack of defensive effort? " But did the coach even ask him to play D? "
Gained twenty pounds despite having two fully functional legs? " He doesn't have time to stay in shape due to flying around for interviews"

With Porter, guys tell me he's unathletic compared to Kawhi and we post the numbers saying differently. People say he has limited upside offensively, we point to player similarities in Kawhi and Tayshaun that were huge parts of NBA finals or playoff teams.

There's a lot of dismissive, I hope type defensive argument in support of Bennett.


Again, not at all.

Injury prone? I've already commented on the fact that both Bennett and Noel have injury track records going back to high school and not just '12-'13. That is horrifying, and far more concerning to me than the weight gain, or the D issue. Players that get injured more than once in a blue moon, tend to be injured repeatedly, the two most consistent traits with regards to injury is that it is more frequent in your 30's than in your 20's, and it is more frequent w/players with a preexisting track record, than it is with players who have no track record. That both Noel and Bennett already have had multiple injuries in just the past three years that were serious is HIGHLY alarming to me, and the biggest knock on him, for me, as a prospect. You can address or fix nearly everything else except perhaps length, but a player chronically injured is far more likely to be injured again, and often, rather than one w/o the track record (like a Porter, or Oladipo, if memory serves).

Weight Gain:

Its bothersome, but not a huge issue for me, because as I've seen with the Heismann circuit, and the blue chip circuit, many, many players gain weight unless they have a trainer working them for the combine (supposedly Zeller's combine #'s were in part, due to him hiring a lights out trainer that specialized in producing elite combine numbers). If he had the weight gain w/o the injury, then I'd be a lot more concerned. As such, I am not, though I do have some measure of concern about it (you can't have none about that, but you can elevate it beyond all reason (a la, "He's off my board" talk).

Defense:
Already addressed, nobody likes that his defensive effort looks like crap on the tape. The only explanations offered by Bennett boosters are the reasonable explanations that #1 well in terms of metrics it aint that bad, which is true, it measured adequately, and #2 we don't know why which is also true. But it can't be a net positive by any stretch of the imagination, it is at best a net neutral, and I don't buy that either, especially in comparison to Porter's vastly superior D (in admittedly a system that preaches D, unlike UNLV).

Leonard played much more athletically on the floor at SDSU and with the Spurs. So far, Porter hasn't shown the #'s on the court. Like with Barnes last year, it may just be a case of ability being masked somewhat by the system he played in, and due to coaching not drawing it out, or it may just be like with Zeller this year, it actually isn't there or translatable in many ways (Zeller's ups may be nice, but they're actually too slow to matter inside in the NBA, he takes too long taking advantage of his vert). We'll see. For now, Leonard may not have measured so great, but he sure showed it playing.

I don't care about players doing something with "championship teams", once you start doing "team" related rating like that, you start evaluating like they did in baseball before all the pioneers of moneyball ideas (going back to the late seventies but rarely applied until the late nineties), attributing to players characteristics that can't be separated from the team itself. I want to know about the player, and the player alone. We can't ship over Detroits D from a decade ago. We aren't that team, though we did play some nice D this past year.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#171 » by Soup's Uncle » Wed Jun 26, 2013 7:00 pm

popper wrote:
Soup's Uncle wrote:
Mizerooskie wrote:Have we gotten any updated measurements on Bennett? I know the assumption is that he's a tweener based on some older measurements, but is it still true?


I heard both 6'5" and 6'6" w/o shoes. 6'7" with. And his playing weight was 240ish. Now he's 260 cus he likes to eat.


I remember Soup. Are you really his uncle?


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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#172 » by Knighthonor » Wed Jun 26, 2013 7:00 pm

Where the rumor that Bennett is immature coming from?
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#173 » by The Consiglieri » Wed Jun 26, 2013 7:01 pm

Rafael122 wrote:Didn't know Minnesota was offering Derrick Williams, the 9th and 26th pick to move up. That's a lot to give up to get Oladipo.


Yep, and I'd take that in a heartbeat. There are guys that should be there at 9 and 26 that in addition to Williams, would likely solve our issues at 3, 4, and backup Point, or developmental Center etc. I'd much rather do that than a conservative Porter pick, or to some extent, a risky Bennett pick. More often than not in the NBA, several pieces for one piece trades never ever work for the team getting "several pieces," but in a draft this crappy, I'd rather have multiple shots at getting a starter caliber player, than simply forcing the pick to land one solid caliber starting player, or admittedly risky upside player.

Admittedly my tune would be very different if this draft were much better, of if we had Noel in our laps. Since the former isn't likely to be true (maybe hindsight shows everybody was wrong? long shot but possible), and the latter is equally unlikely, this is the rare draft where I think pulling the Minny trade makes a good measure of sense. At #9 we'll be able to find a backup combo guard, a stretch 4 or shooting big like Olynyk, a developmental center, or a good backup 2, at #26 we should be able to unearth a solid prospect as well, and Williams is not an outright bust in terms of talent, he would certainly a top 5 piece on the team if acquired.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#174 » by The Consiglieri » Wed Jun 26, 2013 7:04 pm

stevemcqueen1 wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Lamb has not played enough to say he's not better than Beal.


This is an argumentum ad ignorantiam. As was your Fazekas argument earlier.

I think the mere fact that Beal was a day one starter and played major minutes while Lamb got traded and spent the year in the D League is strong evidence Beal is better.


Or the fact that OKC was reportedly "really disappointed in Lamb," after they got to see him practice w/the team. I loved that pick last year and thought it was a massive steal, but for now, the returns are not positive. I just take issue with people tossing a prospect in the trash bin labeled "bust" after one solitary season. It seems a bit preemptive and presumptious.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#175 » by tontoz » Wed Jun 26, 2013 7:06 pm

Bennett would surely be a make or break pick for EG. If Bennett flops EG would be history, especially if Porter is successful.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#176 » by Dark Faze » Wed Jun 26, 2013 7:08 pm

The Consiglieri wrote:
Dark Faze wrote:I think guys who seem overzealous in their arguments against Bennett do so because his supporters simply dismiss the numerous issues that are waged against him instead of actually addressing it.

Injury prone? " No comment "
Lack of defensive effort? " But did the coach even ask him to play D? "
Gained twenty pounds despite having two fully functional legs? " He doesn't have time to stay in shape due to flying around for interviews"

With Porter, guys tell me he's unathletic compared to Kawhi and we post the numbers saying differently. People say he has limited upside offensively, we point to player similarities in Kawhi and Tayshaun that were huge parts of NBA finals or playoff teams.

There's a lot of dismissive, I hope type defensive argument in support of Bennett.


Again, not at all.

Injury prone? I've already commented on the fact that both Bennett and Noel have injury track records going back to high school and not just '12-'13. That is horrifying, and far more concerning to me than the weight gain, or the D issue. Players that get injured more than once in a blue moon, tend to be injured repeatedly, the two most consistent traits with regards to injury is that it is more frequent in your 30's than in your 20's, and it is more frequent w/players with a preexisting track record, than it is with players who have no track record. That both Noel and Bennett already have had multiple injuries in just the past three years that were serious is HIGHLY alarming to me, and the biggest knock on him, for me, as a prospect. You can address or fix nearly everything else except perhaps length, but a player chronically injured is far more likely to be injured again, and often, rather than one w/o the track record (like a Porter, or Oladipo, if memory serves).

Weight Gain:

Its bothersome, but not a huge issue for me, because as I've seen with the Heismann circuit, and the blue chip circuit, many, many players gain weight unless they have a trainer working them for the combine (supposedly Zeller's combine #'s were in part, due to him hiring a lights out trainer that specialized in producing elite combine numbers). If he had the weight gain w/o the injury, then I'd be a lot more concerned. As such, I am not, though I do have some measure of concern about it (you can't have none about that, but you can elevate it beyond all reason (a la, "He's off my board" talk).

Defense:
Already addressed, nobody likes that his defensive effort looks like crap on the tape. The only explanations offered by Bennett boosters are the reasonable explanations that #1 well in terms of metrics it aint that bad, which is true, it measured adequately, and #2 we don't know why which is also true. But it can't be a net positive by any stretch of the imagination, it is at best a net neutral, and I don't buy that either, especially in comparison to Porter's vastly superior D (in admittedly a system that preaches D, unlike UNLV).

Leonard played much more athletically on the floor at SDSU and with the Spurs. So far, Porter hasn't shown the #'s on the court. Like with Barnes last year, it may just be a case of ability being masked somewhat by the system he played in, and due to coaching not drawing it out, or it may just be like with Zeller this year, it actually isn't there or translatable in many ways (Zeller's ups may be nice, but they're actually too slow to matter inside in the NBA, he takes too long taking advantage of his vert). We'll see. For now, Leonard may not have measured so great, but he sure showed it playing.

I don't care about players doing something with "championship teams", once you start doing "team" related rating like that, you start evaluating like they did in baseball before all the pioneers of moneyball ideas (going back to the late seventies but rarely applied until the late nineties), attributing to players characteristics that can't be separated from the team itself. I want to know about the player, and the player alone. We can't ship over Detroits D from a decade ago. We aren't that team, though we did play some nice D this past year.


Great post, there's some stuff I disagree with, but it's nice to see it all laid out there.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#177 » by popper » Wed Jun 26, 2013 7:08 pm

The Consiglieri wrote:
Rafael122 wrote:Didn't know Minnesota was offering Derrick Williams, the 9th and 26th pick to move up. That's a lot to give up to get Oladipo.


Yep, and I'd take that in a heartbeat. There are guys that should be there at 9 and 26 that in addition to Williams, would likely solve our issues at 3, 4, and backup Point, or developmental Center etc. I'd much rather do that than a conservative Porter pick, or to some extent, a risky Bennett pick. More often than not in the NBA, several pieces for one piece trades never ever work for the team getting "several pieces," but in a draft this crappy, I'd rather have multiple shots at getting a starter caliber player, than simply forcing the pick to land one solid caliber starting player, or admittedly risky upside player.


I'm with you 100%.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#178 » by The Consiglieri » Wed Jun 26, 2013 7:08 pm

Mizerooskie wrote:
Dark Faze wrote:I think guys who seem overzealous in their arguments against Bennett do so because his supporters simply dismiss the numerous issues that are waged against him instead of actually addressing it.

Injury prone? " No comment "
Lack of defensive effort? " But did the coach even ask him to play D? "
Gained twenty pounds despite having two fully functional legs? " He doesn't have time to stay in shape due to flying around for interviews"

With Porter, guys tell me he's unathletic compared to Kawhi and we post the numbers saying differently. People say he has limited upside offensively, we point to player similarities in Kawhi and Tayshaun that were huge parts of NBA finals or playoff teams.

There's a lot of dismissive, I hope type defensive argument in support of Bennett.
Work habits and defensive assignments are teachable and coachable. That's why they're dismissed. Mental maturation is natural to expect from a 20 year old.

Athleticism and talent aren't coachable.

The crux of the argument is raw talent vs. polished maturity. Do you want a more finished product or greater upside?


+10,000

Though I'd add that personality, and temperament and approach are usually defined in an individual in their youth, they can actually be coached up, just not their personalities (well, very rarely anyway).
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#179 » by gambitx777 » Wed Jun 26, 2013 7:10 pm

Rafael122 wrote:Didn't know Minnesota was offering Derrick Williams, the 9th and 26th pick to move up. That's a lot to give up to get Oladipo.

Minisota is jsut weird right now, they turned down an offer of, #1, Waiters, and Thompson for love. not saying tis a great deal but its not a bad one
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII 

Post#180 » by popper » Wed Jun 26, 2013 7:10 pm

Soup's Uncle wrote:
popper wrote:
Soup's Uncle wrote:
I heard both 6'5" and 6'6" w/o shoes. 6'7" with. And his playing weight was 240ish. Now he's 260 cus he likes to eat.


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