Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII

[dobrojim]

This is a generic criticism that applies to every prospect. Every propsect will have to adjust to the jump in competition.

someone else may have already responded but just in case...

sure it applies to everyone, but it doesn't apply to everyone equally.
The folks that question AB @3 are clearly thinking it applies to him more than most.
And I think there are legit reasons for that. Those reasons may not turn out to be true.

But why is Bennett particularly vulnerable to a jump in competition compared to others like, Porter?

He's an NBA caliber athlete with NBA caliber skills after all.

because he's undersized lengthwise ie a tweener for playing a power position

and because he succeeded in college because he has a more manly
body than most of the other college players he played against.
He MAY not be able to power through pro bodies the way he did in NCAA.

Porter succeeded by being a better/quicker thinker and by being more
of a 2-way player and by outworking his opponents.

Len scares me after reading a re-hash of his statistical rankings among
Cs in his class. Yes he could develop into a nice 2 way big. But does he
have the requisite drive and competitive nature? I hope CLE takes him.

[stevemcqueen1]

Can we stop talking about Wes Johnson and Evan Turner.

Neither of those guys even comes close to being similar to Porter statistically. Turners stats were beyond mediocre for a #2 pick.

Turner better stats than Porter across the board. Did you even look at his numbers? He was the POTY and scored over 20 PPG with over 9 RPG and over 6 APG on 51% shooting with a 30 PER the year he was drafted. His sophomore numbers were better than Otto's too. He was a much better college player than Otto and a more highly thought of prospect.

Johnson had comparable stats too.

Regardless, both fell into the trap of being good at many things, great at none. They don't really have any skill or attribute that sets them apart giving them a general mismatch to exploit. They were drafted very high and were not capable of being a franchise building blocks while guys taken at 1, 3, and 5 were.

That's the fear with Porter. That he's not going to be a good enough scorer or facilitator to become a building block.

[lastemp3ror]

For those of you who want Ernie fired, you may get your wish if he drafts Bennett and he doesn't fair so well compared to Porter.

[deneem4]

Trade down with wolves
Then
Trade down with jazz

Draft shabazz with jazx pick

[MDStar]

Trade down with wolves
Then
Trade down with jazz

Draft shabazz with jazx pick

Nah, i'll pass.

[tontoz]

Can we stop talking about Wes Johnson and Evan Turner.

Neither of those guys even comes close to being similar to Porter statistically. Turners stats were beyond mediocre for a #2 pick.

Turner averaged 20/9 with 6 assists, shooting 51.9% from the field, 36.4% from 3.

[stevemcqueen1]

someone else may have already responded but just in case...

sure it applies to everyone, but it doesn't apply to everyone equally.
The folks that question AB @3 are clearly thinking it applies to him more than most.
And I think there are legit reasons for that. Those reasons may not turn out to be true.

But why is Bennett particularly vulnerable to a jump in competition compared to others like, Porter?

He's an NBA caliber athlete with NBA caliber skills after all.

because he's undersized lengthwise ie a tweener for playing a power position

and because he succeeded in college because he has a more manly
body than most of the other college players he played against.
He MAY not be able to power through pro bodies the way he did in NCAA.

He's got a similar body to Paul Millsap though. Other players have been very successful with similar body types so it doesn't preclude him from being successful in the NBA. No more so than Otto Porter's relative lack of athleticism and explosiveness for the SF position.

I don't buy that there is necessarily anything physically holding Bennett back when he's healthy.

Also, Bennett didn't rely on power to score in college. He has a great deal of skill. His perimeter skills are noted. And he is going to be powerful, even by NBA standards. That's a big part of his appeal.

I like Porter too, but I think a lot of the Porter lovers around here are being inconsistent/intellectually dishonest when it comes to Bennett.

[Illuminaire]

I'm not at this point yet, but Simmons and Ford laid out a pretty compelling argument against Porter. Their basic argument, which is valid is...How will he score in the pro's easily? In the NBA you tave to be able to do that one thing, what is his one thing? If you don't have it history says you'll have a pretty forgetable career...At the time I heard it I thought, oh Bill, you're wrong, but I haven't been able to talk myself out of this concern with Porter. He projects to have no real strengths as a professional--instead he'll just be solid. How many just solid guys are really valuable players in the pros? I don't even think his defense projects to be exceptional because his lack of elite lateral quickness, he's quite slow actually. At least with Prince, his closest comp, he was very quick and had a pretty strong first step. I just don't see that with Porter, I'm getting nervous about him...

Team defense. Porter's help defense is ridiculously good. The synergy stats for him were just amazing when it came to contesting shots, and not just from his own own. It's not as sexy as scoring or as hip as rebounding, but Porter HAS an elite skill already... and he's above average at almost everything else.

[thricethefun]

Porter is a useless pick. We already have a Porter on this team. (Ariza) And we have a better small forward then him in Webster. So we already have 2 better players then him playing the same position and we want to pick him to play third string small forward with the 3rd pick in the draft? Not like he has a high ceiling to get better than those two either. He will never be a better shooter than Webster and will never be a better defender than Ariza. I say keep those two guys at small forward and draft Len.

[wake20]

Hmmmm....any way to trade for a 2nd lotto pick and get bennett? What would the cost be? An unprotected '14 pick + what?

Probably. Ernie should be fired on the spot if he traded the 2014 1st rounder.

If we draft Porter or Oladipo 3 and Bennett is sitting there come MIN at 9, do you think about 2014 1st to draft Bennett 9th and pick up 26? Where does Bennett get drafted in next year's draft? 15-20? Isn't that where we'll finish?

[dobrojim]

I think the argument that OP is not athletic enough has been refuted.

re Evan Turner - he's not been horrible. Just that Philly needed something
more than a 2nd/3rd option. Plus they really should have drafted a big
and there were 2 decent options there.

Guys who get paid to talk have to say something. Stuff like he's (OP)
is not good enough at any one thing sound to me like they are reaching.

[sfam]

Hmmmm....any way to trade for a 2nd lotto pick and get bennett? What would the cost be? An unprotected '14 pick + what?

would be greartif we traded with Minn and still ended up with Bennett. I'd then package DWill and the #26 to try to get Dieng.

[Dark Faze]

Porter is a useless pick. We already have a Porter on this team. (Ariza) And we have a better small forward then him in Webster. So we already have 2 better players then him playing the same position and we want to pick him to play third string small forward with the 3rd pick in the draft? Not like he has a high ceiling to get better than those two either. He will never be a better shooter than Webster and will never be a better defender than Ariza. I say keep those two guys at small forward and draft Len.

Ariza was almost traded for Butler and Webster has probably missed more games due to injury than he's actually played.

The SF position isn't even close to being locked up.

[jivelikenice]

Can we stop talking about Wes Johnson and Evan Turner.

Neither of those guys even comes close to being similar to Porter statistically. Turners stats were beyond mediocre for a #2 pick.

Turner averaged 20/9 with 6 assists, shooting 51.9% from the field, 36.4% from 3.

Turner was a beast his senior year. The problem for him was he basically played point for Ohio St and is not effective off the ball. Additionally his lack of NBA 3 pt range and less than ideal wingspan don't help. Otto wasn't ball dominant in college and will have no issues with length....Its a terrible comp.

[GhostsOfGil]

Hmmmm....any way to trade for a 2nd lotto pick and get bennett? What would the cost be? An unprotected '14 pick + what?

Probably. Ernie should be fired on the spot if he traded the 2014 1st rounder.

I really dont understand why we value the 2014 th so highly. Regardless of this years pick, we're probably going to make the playoffs and end with a pick in the late teens. I've heard the 2014 draft is strong up top but havn't heard anything about depth into the late lottery. Maybe I'm missing something, but I'm not opposed to using the 2014th if it helps us acquire more talent now. Lets say Bennett slips to 9. Wiz trade 2014 top 5 protected plus Ariza for + 9.

Wiz take Porter and Bennett. Unlikely, but my point is that the 2014th should not be untouchable IMO.

[sfam]

I think the argument that OP is not athletic enough has been refuted.

re Evan Turner - he's not been horrible. Just that Philly needed something
more than a 2nd/3rd option. Plus they really should have drafted a big
and there were 2 decent options there.

Guys who get paid to talk have to say something. Stuff like he's (OP)
is not good enough at any one thing sound to me like they are reaching.

I don't buy this at all. If you're drafting Porter with the hopes of him becoming an elite athlete you'll be disapointed. Porter is an average athlete that has really high BBIQ and a solid Jack of All Trades skillset. That's why you draft him.

[stevemcqueen1]

I get the sense teams feel like Bennett is one of those guys that will haunt them if they pass on him.

One of the reasons I disagree with the term "safe pick" is because I don't think there is such a thing in the draft.

Evan Turner and Wesley Johnson went 2 and 4 in 2010 largely because they were "safe" picks. The FOs that picked them got fired. So much for safety.

Meanwhile, the "high risk" upside guys that got picked at 3 and 5 that year look like building blocks and future stars.

Bottom line, there really is no such thing as safety in the draft. If you pick very high and don't get the best guy and you don't start winning with him, you are going to get fired.

So the question is, who is going to be the absolute best player we can get at 3? Otto Porter or Anthony Bennett?

Right now I've got Porter but I think it is very complicated and very close. Otto is going to be better at some things, Bennett better at others.

Favors and Cousins though were better prospects coming out than Bennett IMO. The Evan Turner/Wesley Johnson to Porter is interesting- I think Turner was a slightly better prospect while Johnson was slightly worse.

I think that's fair, although I'd say Turner was considered a much better prospect than Porter is at the time. He was pretty celebrated and a no brainer at #2. He was coming off an amazing year.

I agree that Cousins was a substantially better prospect than Bennett, and while Favors was probably better, I don't think it was by a whole lot. He was so raw.

But it speaks to the relative quality of the draft classes. 2010 was a very strong draft class while 2013 is far from that.

[stevemcqueen1]

Hmmmm....any way to trade for a 2nd lotto pick and get bennett? What would the cost be? An unprotected '14 pick + what?

Probably. Ernie should be fired on the spot if he traded the 2014 1st rounder.

I really dont understand why we value the 2014 th so highly. Regardless of this years pick, we're probably going to make the playoffs and end with a pick in the late teens. I've heard the 2014 draft is strong up top but havn't heard anything about depth into the late lottery. Maybe I'm missing something, but I'm not opposed to using the 2014th if it helps us acquire more talent now. Lets say Bennett slips to 9. Wiz trade 2014 top 5 protected plus Ariza for + 9.

Wiz take Porter and Bennett. Unlikely, but my point is that the 2014th should not be untouchable IMO.

Because we're the Wizards and never far from totally falling apart.

I don't know, I don't see the need to deal the 2014 pick unless you're bringing in a true long term difference maker. Like a DeMarcus Cousins type talent. Otherwise, just use this pick and make a few low key signings/trades and see what you've got next year.

Even the best laid plans of mice and men... trading future picks can lead to some of the worst deals in NBA history.

[stevemcqueen1]

Even after 700+ pages, here's a fresh angle:

Victor is almost Victory; however, VICTOR OLADIPO is an anagram for I PA VOLDICOORT, and that could be uncomfortable for the muggles and mudbloods among us. Better to hope Otto Porter's wizardry is more Harry Potter than Port-a-Potty.

Hey, I just McCollum like I see 'um.

Enjoy the festivities tonight, (ladies and) gentlemen.

This is why I enjoy RealGM.

[pancakes3]

I think the argument that OP is not athletic enough has been refuted.

re Evan Turner - he's not been horrible. Just that Philly needed something
more than a 2nd/3rd option. Plus they really should have drafted a big
and there were 2 decent options there.

Guys who get paid to talk have to say something. Stuff like he's (OP)
is not good enough at any one thing sound to me like they are reaching.

I don't buy this at all. If you're drafting Porter with the hopes of him becoming an elite athlete you'll be disapointed. Porter is an average athlete that has really high BBIQ and a solid Jack of All Trades skillset. That's why you draft him.

There's a wide gulf between adequate athlete and elite athlete. Porter's not going to go out there and jam on people but it's not like he can't jump over a telephone book either. I fully expect Porter to be equally athletic - if not more, and equally skilled - if not more - than Josh Childress, Wilson Chandler, Chandler Parsons, Landry Fields, and a host of other SF's. The only red flag would be his weight.

I also think the "jack of all trades, master of none" moniker is unfair. He's a heck of a lot better at shooting 3's than just about anyone else in the draft. 42% on 3 shots a game makes him more dangerous from 3 than Bennet, Muhammed, and just about any other "natural scorer" out there.