2013-2014 Wizard's lineup

[tontoz]

My dream scenario would be for Trevor Ariza to commit to being a Wizard for the long term and bulk up to fill the role. Ariza plus 10-15 pounds of muscle could be one of the best stretch fours in the league. It would solve our log jam at SF and give us the great defense and offensive spacing that ideally fits Wall's ability.

Resign Webster, add a competent PG like Udrih, and we would be in business:

PG Wall/Udrih
SG Beal/Webster
SF Porter/Webster
PF Nene/Ariza
C Okafor/Seraphin

Temple, Rice and Booker fill out the end of the bench nicely.

Unfortunately, I get the feeling that Ariza isn't committed enough to the Wizards to buy in. He'd rather get traded to a west coast team and play SF.

Assuming they don't trade him i think Ariza will definitely see more time at the 4. I doubt CS even plays unless there are injuries.

[Dat2U]

Seraphin's defense hasn't been poor since his rookie year. The defense improved by a mile as soon we traded McGee, and Seraphin was a big reason why. Nene hardly played and we didn't have Okafor, yet the defense was among the leagues best after the trade. Seraphin was the only guy who could protect the rim and he did it very well.

Many times i would see him get switched on a guard on a pick and roll and he would chase the guard all the way under the rim and them back out to the 3 point line.

He is a good man and help defender. The only thing holding his defense back is his defensive rebounding.

I gotta disagree, especially with regards to protecting the rim. Seraphin doesn't protect the rim, Okafor & Nene do. I've seen Seraphin lock up guys at times individually and display good effort on pick & rolls but that only seems to be the case with either Nene or Okafor in the lineup to protect the weak side. Pairing Seraphin with Booker or anyone else and the Wizards become a turnstile defensively. Notice I said if Seraphin is leaned on for heavy minutes (if Okafor or Nene are out) then the Wizards are in trouble.

[Dat2U]

My dream scenario would be for Trevor Ariza to commit to being a Wizard for the long term and bulk up to fill the role. Ariza plus 10-15 pounds of muscle could be one of the best stretch fours in the league. It would solve our log jam at SF and give us the great defense and offensive spacing that ideally fits Wall's ability.

Resign Webster, add a competent PG like Udrih, and we would be in business:

PG Wall/Udrih
SG Beal/Webster
SF Porter/Webster
PF Nene/Ariza
C Okafor/Seraphin

Temple, Rice and Booker fill out the end of the bench nicely.

Unfortunately, I get the feeling that Ariza isn't committed enough to the Wizards to buy in. He'd rather get traded to a west coast team and play SF.

The Beno Udrih from the last two years I DO NOT WANT. We'd be better off with A.J. Price.

[tontoz]

Seraphin's defense hasn't been poor since his rookie year. The defense improved by a mile as soon we traded McGee, and Seraphin was a big reason why. Nene hardly played and we didn't have Okafor, yet the defense was among the leagues best after the trade. Seraphin was the only guy who could protect the rim and he did it very well.

Many times i would see him get switched on a guard on a pick and roll and he would chase the guard all the way under the rim and them back out to the 3 point line.

He is a good man and help defender. The only thing holding his defense back is his defensive rebounding.

I gotta disagree, especially with regards to protecting the rim. Seraphin doesn't protect the rim, Okafor & Nene do. I've seen Seraphin lock up guys at times individually and display good effort on pick & rolls but that only seems to be the case with either Nene or Okafor in the lineup to protect the weak side. Pairing Seraphin with Booker or anyone else and the Wizards become a turnstile defensively. Notice I said if Seraphin is leaned on for heavy minutes (if Okafor or Nene are out) then the Wizards are in trouble.

Not seeing it. The Wizards had one of the best defenses in the league after the McGee trade. Nene didn't play much and Okafor wasn't on the roster. When Seraphin and Booker were in the game the paint was locked down. It was only after Booker got hurt that opponents had any luck inside, thanks to Ves.

The Wizards were one of the best defensive teams in the league this past season, and Okafor was one of the best defensive bigs, yet the defense was only 1.7 pts better with Okafor in the game. The reason the difference wasn't bigger was Seraphin. During the previous season the defense was 6.3 ppg better with Seraphin in the game.

[Dat2U]

Seraphin's defense hasn't been poor since his rookie year. The defense improved by a mile as soon we traded McGee, and Seraphin was a big reason why. Nene hardly played and we didn't have Okafor, yet the defense was among the leagues best after the trade. Seraphin was the only guy who could protect the rim and he did it very well.

Many times i would see him get switched on a guard on a pick and roll and he would chase the guard all the way under the rim and them back out to the 3 point line.

He is a good man and help defender. The only thing holding his defense back is his defensive rebounding.

I gotta disagree, especially with regards to protecting the rim. Seraphin doesn't protect the rim, Okafor & Nene do. I've seen Seraphin lock up guys at times individually and display good effort on pick & rolls but that only seems to be the case with either Nene or Okafor in the lineup to protect the weak side. Pairing Seraphin with Booker or anyone else and the Wizards become a turnstile defensively. Notice I said if Seraphin is leaned on for heavy minutes (if Okafor or Nene are out) then the Wizards are in trouble.

Not seeing it. The Wizards had one of the best defenses in the league after the McGee trade. Nene didn't play much and Okafor wasn't on the roster. When Seraphin and Booker were in the game the paint was locked down. It was only after Booker got hurt that opponents had any luck inside, thanks to Ves.

The Wizards were one of the best defensive teams in the league this past season, and Okafor was one of the best defensive bigs, yet the defense was only 1.7 pts better with Okafor in the game. The reason the difference wasn't bigger was Seraphin. During the previous season the defense was 6.3 ppg better with Seraphin in the game.

Please don't tell me your going back to the end of the 2011-12 for evidence. You mean the time when Seraphin & Vesely had their respective breakouts? At the end of a strike shortened season against terrible competition?

Regarding the stats you point to for confirmation, individual on/off numbers are flawed by nature. Is it really Seraphin's individual impact or a representative example of the lineup combinations he played with? When I watched him play, he really struggled defensively without Okafor or Nene paired with him. I didn't see the awareness or the length to challenge shots effectively when they were not in the game.

[tontoz]

Please don't tell me your going back to the end of the 2011-12 for evidence. You mean the time when Seraphin & Vesely had their respective breakouts? At the end of a strike shortened season against terrible competition?

Regarding the stats you point to for confirmation, individual on/off numbers are flawed by nature. Is it really Seraphin's individual impact or a representative example of the lineup combinations he played with? When I watched him play, he really struggled defensively without Okafor or Nene paired with him. I didn't see the awareness or the length to challenge shots effectively when they were not in the game.

Booker didn't even play in the last month of the season in '12. He missed 17 games at the end of the season.

I am talking about immediately after the trade, and all the times they played together before then. When those two were in the game the other teams consistently struggled in the paint. It has been that way since their rookie years.

I remember one game in LA during their rookie year when they were in there together and shut down the paint, nearly pulling out the game. It was then that people who trying to come up with knicknames for the duo.

Any center would struggle on D if he has Vesely playing next to him.

[Dat2U]

I remember one game in LA during their rookie year when they were in there together and shut down the paint, nearly pulling out the game. It was then that people who trying to come up with knicknames for the duo.

I remember that game too. They gave Bynum & Gasol fits with their energy & bulk. It was one of the only games that Wall & Arenas played significant minutes together and along with Nick Young they all played well.

Alas, it was only to be seen for a game though.

[tontoz]

I remember one game in LA during their rookie year when they were in there together and shut down the paint, nearly pulling out the game. It was then that people who trying to come up with knicknames for the duo.

I remember that game too. They gave Bynum & Gasol fits with their energy & bulk. It was one of the only games that Wall & Arenas played significant minutes together and along with Nick Young they all played well.

Alas, it was only to be seen for a game though.

Whenever they were in the game together they other teams struggled to score in the paint. It has been that way consistently. That was just a memorable example of it.

When Vesely comes in that is when the D takes a dive.

[Dat2U]

Whenever they were in the game together they other teams struggled to score in the paint. It has been that way consistently. That was just a memorable example of it.

When Vesely comes in that is when the D takes a dive.

That's where we disagree. There's no evidence of this sustained level of defense when Seraphin/Booker play together.

[tontoz]

Whenever they were in the game together they other teams struggled to score in the paint. It has been that way consistently. That was just a memorable example of it.

When Vesely comes in that is when the D takes a dive.

That's where we disagree. There's no evidence of this sustained level of defense when Seraphin/Booker play together.

Are you trying to say that your argument is based on any evidence other than your opinion?

If you have any evidence that Seraphin has been a weak defender over the last two season feel free to share.

[Dat2U]

Whenever they were in the game together they other teams struggled to score in the paint. It has been that way consistently. That was just a memorable example of it.

When Vesely comes in that is when the D takes a dive.

That's where we disagree. There's no evidence of this sustained level of defense when Seraphin/Booker play together.

Are you trying to say that your argument is based on any evidence other than your opinion?

Says the person without much evidence himself except for some anecdotal numbers. I can't believe I'm sitting here arguing about the quality of Seraphin & Booker's D. Talk about an argument that's not really worthy of discussion.

[tontoz]

Says the person without much evidence himself except for some anecdotal numbers. I can't believe I'm sitting here arguing about the quality of Seraphin & Booker's D. Talk about an argument that's not really worthy of discussion.

Anecdotal evidence + plus/minutes stats > no evidence. And yes it is worth discussing because Okafor has only 1 year left on his deal.

Given team needs i have basically given up on Booker. His lack of a jumper kills my interest in resigning him. On this team a backup 4 should be able to shoot.

But Seraphin is another matter. I believe his defensive ability makes him worthy of resigning, assuming he stops rebounding like a guard.

[Dat2U]

Are you trying to say that your argument is based on any evidence other than your opinion?

Says the person without much evidence himself except for some anecdotal numbers. I can't believe I'm sitting here arguing about the quality of Seraphin & Booker's D. Talk about an argument that's not really worthy of discussion.

Anecdotal evidence + plus/minutes stats > no evidence. And yes it is worth discussing because Okafor has only 1 year left on his deal.

Given team needs i have basically given up on Booker. His lack of a jumper kills my interest in resigning him. On this team a backup 4 should be able to shoot.

But Seraphin is another matter. I believe his defensive ability makes him worthy of resigning, assuming he stops rebounding like a guard.

LOL. Anecdotal, flawed evidence is better than nothing right? Especially considering there's no real clear way to statistically weigh a players value on defense. But since you've got some random numbers to point to, that makes your point valid? No, not really.

So, back to where we started. It's your opinion vs. my opinion. We argue that until were blue in the face.

[tontoz]

Are you trying to say that your argument is based on any evidence other than your opinion?

Says the person without much evidence himself except for some anecdotal numbers. I can't believe I'm sitting here arguing about the quality of Seraphin & Booker's D. Talk about an argument that's not really worthy of discussion.

Anecdotal evidence + plus/minutes stats > no evidence. And yes it is worth discussing because Okafor has only 1 year left on his deal.

Given team needs i have basically given up on Booker. His lack of a jumper kills my interest in resigning him. On this team a backup 4 should be able to shoot.

But Seraphin is another matter. I believe his defensive ability makes him worthy of resigning, assuming he stops rebounding like a guard.

LOL. Anecdotal, flawed evidence is better than nothing right? Especially considering there's no real clear way to statistically weigh a players value on defense. But since you've got some random numbers to point to, that makes your point valid? No, not really.

So, back to where we started. It's your opinion vs. my opinion. We argue that until were blue in the face.

The defense didn't drop off significantly when Seraphin came in the game so you just dismiss the stats completely. The guys he came in for (Okafor/Nene) were both strong defenders so it stands to reason that the defense would get significantly worse if a "piss poor team defender" came in for them.

In large sample sizes plus/minus stats can be a valid measure of defense. They showed very clearly how horrible McGee was, both here and in Denver.

[Dat2U]

Anecdotal evidence + plus/minutes stats > no evidence. And yes it is worth discussing because Okafor has only 1 year left on his deal.

Given team needs i have basically given up on Booker. His lack of a jumper kills my interest in resigning him. On this team a backup 4 should be able to shoot.

But Seraphin is another matter. I believe his defensive ability makes him worthy of resigning, assuming he stops rebounding like a guard.

LOL. Anecdotal, flawed evidence is better than nothing right? Especially considering there's no real clear way to statistically weigh a players value on defense. But since you've got some random numbers to point to, that makes your point valid? No, not really.

So, back to where we started. It's your opinion vs. my opinion. We argue that until were blue in the face.

The defense didn't drop off significantly when Seraphin came in the game so you just dismiss the stats completely. The guys he came in for (Okafor/Nene) were both strong defenders so it stands to reason that the defense would get significantly worse if a "piss poor team defender" came in for them.

In large sample sizes plus/minus stats can be a valid measure of defense. They showed very clearly how horrible McGee was, both here and in Denver.

You obviously missed my quote...

Regarding the stats you point to for confirmation, individual on/off numbers are flawed by nature. Is it really Seraphin's individual impact or a representative example of the lineup combinations he played with?

That's why I dismiss it. They still aren't a true measure no matter how hard you try to validate them. Defense is not a clear quantifiable statistic that can be measured, which is partly why millions are being spent on camera technology to give scouts and front offices a clearer picture of a players impact on both sides of the court. MySynergySports is a useful tool at pointing out performance in specific scenarios but neither of us is offering such data as evidence. So in other words, were both playing visual scout here. In which your entitled to your opinion and I'm entitled to mine until proven otherwise.

[tontoz]

Seraphin's Synergy page says that overall teams shot 43.3% against him. Omer Asik's opponents shot 43.4% against him overall.

[Dat2U]

Seraphin's Synergy page says that overall teams shot 43.3% against him. Omer Asik's opponents shot 43.4% against him overall.

Which still doesn't address my point. I acknowledged Seraphin has been a good individual defender in stretches, especially teamed with Okafor and to a lesser extent Nene, but that 43.4% doesn't account for the shots he doesn't challenge because his rotations are poor.

[tontoz]

Seraphin's Synergy page says that overall teams shot 43.3% against him. Omer Asik's opponents shot 43.4% against him overall.

Which still doesn't address my point. I acknowledged Seraphin has been a good individual defender in stretches, especially teamed with Okafor and to a lesser extent Nene, but that 43.4% doesn't account for the shots he doesn't challenge because his rotations are poor.

You brought up synergy. It doesn't look like they have a category that would even address that. They have categories for isos, pnr, spot ups and post ups.

[payitforward]

...Seraphin ...In 2010 I loved the pick. But a bust is a bust, and so far that is what he is. I'd *a lot* rather have Kyle O'Quinn, whom we could have nabbed w/ the #46 we gave away last year.

Disagree. ....Seraphin has his flaws and needs to drastically improve, but ...it helps him a lot... that he's able to play center, as that's a more valuable commodity for us at the moment. ...offense took a big step backwards, ...value to this team, both in the short- and long-term, is his defense.... think a lot of people here are going to be pleasantly surprised with Seraphin this season.

You're only valuable playing Center or any other position if you play it well. As to defensive value, I didn't see it. As to being pleasantly surprised this season -- weren't we hearing predictions we'd be pleasantly surprised *last* season?

I don't want to beat a dead horse, but Kevin Seraphin, so far, is a *terrible* NBA player. Last year:

1. Kevin Seraphin averaged 8 boards per 40 minutes! As a Center! Of the about fifty C's in the league who played 20+ minute/game, only one guy -- Bargnani -- was worse.

2. he shot 46% on 2 point attempts; only 10 guys who played 20min+ were worse than that.

3. Yet, he took a lot of shots -- only 12 in that group took more! Talk about a formula for misery.

4. Kevin was 6th in that group in turnovers.

5. He was ninth worst in steals.

6. He was fourth lowest in FT attempts.

6. He was below average in FT%

7. Finally -- and here is his very very best stat -- he was only a little below average and about at the mean in blocks.

Overall, Kevin Seraphin had the 2d worst WS40 of the 50 Centers who played 20 or more minutes a game last season. And the guy w/ the 3d worst WS40, Tyler Zeller, was almost twice as productive. In fact, forget about minutes per game. If you just look at everybody who played C last year and logged more than 200 minutes on the season, Kevin had the 3d lowest WS40.

Fans hate reality. Fans like dreams. As I say, I loved the pick when Ernie made it, but in his 3d NBA season Kevin Seraphin was just about the worst of the worst.

[payitforward]

...Given team needs i have basically given up on Booker. His lack of a jumper kills my interest in resigning him. On this team a backup 4 should be able to shoot.

But Seraphin is another matter. I believe his defensive ability makes him worthy of resigning, assuming he stops rebounding like a guard.

Uh huh.

A "backup 4 should be able to shoot"?

on his career Trevor Booker is shooting @ 53%. Last year he averaged almost 11 boards per 40 minutes.

On his career, Kevin is shooting @ 48%. Last year he averaged 8 boards per 40 minutes.

Shooting 50% more often than Trevor, Kevin has managed to average less than 1 point more per game.

Oh, and in 3500+ minutes that great defender Kevin Seraphin has a total of 60 steals. In 3100 minutes, Trevor Booker has 110 steals.

Gee, maybe you are giving up on the wrong guy, huh?