Official Speculation Thread I

[rcklsscognition]

Players generally never become significantly better than they were in their 1st NBA season. With Harkless, we actually have a lot of stats of him playing big minutes. He projects to be a 12PPG, 6RPG, 2 AST, 1.5STL, 1 BLK player. If he makes a leap on his 3pt % like a Deng, he could be a 14-15PPG. At best you're getting Igoudala, maybe Ariza.

If he doesn't show sustained improvement in his shooting percentages next season, I'd trade him, despite him being my favorite Magician behind Jameer. Odds are he never gets over 12PPG, but if he's going to break out, we'll see it in his percentages in the first few months.

And before anyone gets Paul George reference in, he bumped his 3point percentage up 2nd year and everything else pretty much went up in proportion to minutes played.

Iguodala? You've got to be kidding me. Iggy has already shown flashes in playmaking skills in his rookie year, Harkless doesn't. And Harkless is a spot up shooter. I'm hoping Moe develops like Iggy, but based on Moe games last year, Ariza a more likely comparison.

I honestly didn't know Iggy was an assist guy. Wasn't comparing him in that sense, just to the overall idea of scoring in the mid teens and rebounding well. Harkless will never have the passing abilities of Iggy, but the other stuff doesn't matter like spot up shooter or slasher. It's all stats to me.

[G-Heel]

As I'm on my projection kick, go back and look at Tobias. Any dumbass could have seen in his first year in the NBA that Harris could score 18PPG/7.5RPG and hardly any assists, steals, or blocks if he started. He shot the same numbers in college as he did in the NBA pretty much.

Yr1- 11.4 MPG- 5PPG/2.4RPG/0.5APG/0.2BPG/0.3SPG
Yr2- 11.6 MPG- 4.9PPG/2RPG/0.5APG/0.3BPG/0.3SPG

Basically multiply all his stats by 3.15

Yr 3- 36.1MPG- 17.3PPG/8.5RPG/2.1APG/1.4BPG/0.9SPG

This is not a fool-proof method by any means, but it does work generally in about 95% of the cases. What it shows is that players do not really improve that much, despite how much we think they do. Usually, they just play more minutes and do the same stuff more often. Occasionally you get a guy that increases his 3% percentage a lot, but generally, things are going to be the same even looking back to college.

Look at Tobias in college:

30MPG-- 15.3PPG/7.3RPG/1.3AST/0.9BPG/0.7STL

Increase everything by 20% and see how he matches senior year to 3rd year NBA:

Projecting senior year stats onto full-time nba starter minutes:

36MPG- 18.3PPG/8.7RPG/1.5AST/1BPG/0.84SPG

And reality:

36.1MPG- 17.3PPG/8.5RPG/2.1APG/1.4BPG/0.9SPG

Pretty darn close.

What do you get for KOQ using that formula?

[MagicStarwipe]

Not every improvement can be quantified by stats. Most NBA players improve in one or multiple areas during their careers if they have the right work ethic. This is true even of your Jordan's, LeBron's or Kobe's. Sometimes stats will show it, sometimes you just gotta actually watch the players.

[D12VCMagic]

He had to play 40+ mpg to get to that clip and his +/- might have been the worst on the team. The reason you give them to Davis is because he is the better player. Your starters are your 5 best players on the team. Moe is 7th right now behind Harris, Vucevic, Davis, Nelson, afflalo, oladipo, Nicholson (tied with harkless)... If you don't want baby starting then trade him, until then he is the starter at 4 and Harris is at 3. Harkless is off the bench. Plain and simple.

Straight up BS. Davis isn't better than half the roster. He's a role player who is inflating his offensive stats by shooting way too much. His defense is also below average but he is a nice rebounder. Also Nicholson being tied with Harkless or better is silly. Sure, his post moves are smooth and skilled but the dude can't defend a soul or rebound at all. Harkless showed major progress in his offensive game and is a skilled defender and rebounder. He brings a way better all around package than Nicholson.

Even for those people who seem to be down on Harkless, I can't imagine why you'd want Glen Davis taking minutes away from anybody on the team. He clearly doesn't fit and has no future here.

Because you play your five best players in the starting lineup... It's no coincidence that we were damn near a .500 team in the beginning of the year with Davis and when moe was playing all those minutes we won all of what, 4 games in the last 2 months?? Davis defense sucks?? Gtfo man, give credit where credit is due... You're all hyped up on moe like he's the second coming of tmac... The dude is gonna be a good role player on a championship team, you can take that to the bank. All of you expecting all star appearances are in for a huge disappointment.

We also had the league's easiest schedule for the first few months of the season, something people never really mention. But who cares, even if Davis is the reason for that being a near .500 team hurts us more than it helps us and just further proves the point that he needs to be moved. I also never said his defense sucks, the only guy I thought flat out sucked on defense last year was Nicholson and at times Vuc (but Vuc had some moments). His defense is below average though, he isn't a legit starting four and can't defend most quality bigs in the league. As a bench role player his defense is more than adequate, but not as a starter. I also am beyond tired of going on about his inefficient offense and just killing our ball flow on offense. He doesn't have any more upside than what he's shown, he is better off elsewhere.

Also, I never once called Harkless the next T-Mac or claimed he was making All Star appearences. But he has an ideal NBA body, great athleticism and some room to grow. It is absurd to sit here and say he is Trevor Ariza or Devin Ebanks when he just turned 20. He showed major progress at the end of next season and it is in the best interest of our team to continue that and see how an actual offseason and training camp helps, rather than continue to waste our time with an overpaid, inefficient Otis leftover.

[NEM]

He's already close to Ariza's level and it's only his rookie season. You're seriously underrating him in all your posts. In time, he'll prove to be very important because of his ability to play defense.

All in all, I'm not very high on anyone we have except Dipo. But Harkless can certainly be a very valuable member of a contending team.

Let me get this straight, you're only high on dipo and moe but not Harris or vooch??? So you're higher on two guys who have proven nothing than on two guys who have proven to be either scorers (harris), rebounders (vooch), or both (harris)... All at the same age as the two you're "high" on...

Harkless is not yet at arizas level... He is barely above ebanks, check the numbers. I also remember this board touting ariza as the next tmac and almost committing mass homicide when we traded him. Ariza was doing the same things moe is doing now when he was here and he is actually a better defender and ball handler.

Y'all are going to be disappointed in moe because you're putting unfair expectations on him, while neon1 and I will be just fine with his 12 and 6 in 34 minutes in his prime at a decent price (20 million/4 years)

What can I say, I like defensive players. Those are the ones that don't get abused in the playoffs. Vuc can't play a lick of defense and I'm not high on him until he improves that. Centers that can't play good defense are big liabilities because of their job to protect the paint.

As for Harris, I don't like him at the 4, and I haven't seen him play the three much to judge if he can play the 3 consistently.

I feel players like Harkless will improves, while Vuc and Harris aren't going to improve much at all.

Vucevics d rating is 103, harkless is 107.... So there goes your argument.... And because moe is 20 he will improve but since Tobias is ALMOST 21 and vuc ALMOST 23 they will NOT improve? Ok got it... Is that the same logic you use to say the sky is green and the grass is blue? Sure seems that way... Backwards

[RYgoBOOM]

Moe is gonna prove ya'll wrong! Can't wait.

He had no offseason or training camp last year then got thrown into the starting lineup after playing a good part of his college career at center. He looked lost his first couple of months but then showed crazy flashes of D and offense that we hadn't seen all year. JJ then got traded and Harris came on board and his numbers went down from then on. Once he gets the offeason+summer league+training camp he will be in a position that we can really judge how he impacts our franchise.

IMO he will be an integral part of our winning culture coming in a short couple years

WORST CASE-Trevor Ariza
BEST CASE-Kawhi Leonard-esqe

[InFlames]

Harkless looks like Batum to me.

[rcklsscognition]

Players generally never become significantly better than they were in their 1st NBA season.

where do you get this? Tony Parker was 9 ppg, 4 apg in 30 mpg his first year. I would say he is significantly better. Carlos Boozer, 10 ppg 7 rpg, Noah 6 ppg 5 rpg, Al Horford 10 ppg 9 rpg. need i even mention Dwight Howard? all played significant minutes.

Yes, if you are Lebron or Chris Paul or KG, absolute studs coming into the league you dont become significantly better, but that is like 10% of the league at absolute best.

Some of the best point guards in the game got better is assisting as their careers progress. Nash was a mediocre assist guy for many years. Parker owns a career 6 APG stat and only had one really down season, his 1st year, at 4.3. I'm not sure what happened to him that first year, because it looks like season 2 he comes out shooting 4 more shots a game all of a sudden.

I don't think Dwight's projections are that far off from what you'd think he'd do after year 1. He was able to score more points than expected, but rebounds and blocks are fairly close to projections.

Boozer would have projected to be a 15/10 guy I think. Fairly accurate.

Horford is scoring a few PPG more than projected, but over his career, is only 2.5PPG more than projected off 1st year.

Like I said, it's not perfect, but you can get a great idea for what a player will be. I'm sure there are cases where the player took a huge leap, but in most cases, it's very telling. Just looking at those guys you mentioned though, you definitely pick up the stragglers on year 2. By then, you should know who you're getting for sure.

[sportsrock37]

He had to play 40+ mpg to get to that clip and his +/- might have been the worst on the team. The reason you give them to Davis is because he is the better player. Your starters are your 5 best players on the team. Moe is 7th right now behind Harris, Vucevic, Davis, Nelson, afflalo, oladipo, Nicholson (tied with harkless)... If you don't want baby starting then trade him, until then he is the starter at 4 and Harris is at 3. Harkless is off the bench. Plain and simple.

Straight up BS. Davis isn't better than half the roster. He's a role player who is inflating his offensive stats by shooting way too much. His defense is also below average but he is a nice rebounder. Also Nicholson being tied with Harkless or better is silly. Sure, his post moves are smooth and skilled but the dude can't defend a soul or rebound at all. Harkless showed major progress in his offensive game and is a skilled defender and rebounder. He brings a way better all around package than Nicholson.

Even for those people who seem to be down on Harkless, I can't imagine why you'd want Glen Davis taking minutes away from anybody on the team. He clearly doesn't fit and has no future here.

Because you play your five best players in the starting lineup... It's no coincidence that we were damn near a .500 team in the beginning of the year with Davis and when moe was playing all those minutes we won all of what, 4 games in the last 2 months?? Davis defense sucks?? Gtfo man, give credit where credit is due... You're all hyped up on moe like he's the second coming of tmac... The dude is gonna be a good role player on a championship team, you can take that to the bank. All of you expecting all star appearances are in for a huge disappointment.

I haven't seen every page of this thread but have read the last 5-10, I didn't see anywhere that anyone said Harkless was a surefire perennial all-star.

We are rebuilding not contending. You don't necessarily start your best 5 players if you have some guys that you think could play a big role in the future. I think Harkless will play a much bigger role after the rebuild then Big Baby. I see no point taking away Harkless minutes for Big Baby. I don't see why Harkless can't be a valuable role player as the 4th or 5th scoring option on a winning team. He's got very good defensive instincts that IMO will only go up as he gets more comfortable and confident in the NBA.

[magicman123]

Looks like Moe will be the new whipping boy on the season, it's amazing how fast we can turn on players

[rcklsscognition]

Not every improvement can be quantified by stats. Most NBA players improve in one or multiple areas during their careers if they have the right work ethic. This is true even of your Jordan's, LeBron's or Kobe's. Sometimes stats will show it, sometimes you just gotta actually watch the players.

What is the point of having a guy who improves in certain areas, if you don't see it in the stats? Are you saying that these improvements help the team by becoming more versatile? Just seems like a stretch to me. It looks more like the players get other players around them that are better and start winning more rings.

I was looking at Lebron. He had a 2nd year jump in PPG and a bit in RPG, but everything else has held fairly steady. I wonder what is is that separates some of these players and makes their gains all in the 2nd year? Anyone know of a 3rd year jump, or 4th? I think its like 90% accurate for year 1, maybe 95% for year 2, and so on.

[rcklsscognition]

What do you get for KOQ using that formula?

Scary stats. Multiply by 3.15 again, similar minutes to Harris first year. 13PPG/11RPG/2.8APG/1.5BPG

[RYgoBOOM]

On another note-

was this posted already?



Adrian Wojnarowski
‏@WojYahooNBA
Something interesting to watch in summer league: Orlando's Victor Oladipo getting major run at PG - in mold of young Russell Westbrook.

This got me very very excited today. The fact that rob tries new things really gets me siked for this year lol

[InFlames]

rcklss is basically just showing per 36. You can find these at basketball-reference.com. He is just calculating it himself.

[G-Heel]

Let me get this straight, you're only high on dipo and moe but not Harris or vooch??? So you're higher on two guys who have proven nothing than on two guys who have proven to be either scorers (harris), rebounders (vooch), or both (harris)... All at the same age as the two you're "high" on...

Harkless is not yet at arizas level... He is barely above ebanks, check the numbers. I also remember this board touting ariza as the next tmac and almost committing mass homicide when we traded him. Ariza was doing the same things moe is doing now when he was here and he is actually a better defender and ball handler.

Y'all are going to be disappointed in moe because you're putting unfair expectations on him, while neon1 and I will be just fine with his 12 and 6 in 34 minutes in his prime at a decent price (20 million/4 years)

What can I say, I like defensive players. Those are the ones that don't get abused in the playoffs. Vuc can't play a lick of defense and I'm not high on him until he improves that. Centers that can't play good defense are big liabilities because of their job to protect the paint.

As for Harris, I don't like him at the 4, and I haven't seen him play the three much to judge if he can play the 3 consistently.

I feel players like Harkless will improves, while Vuc and Harris aren't going to improve much at all.

Vucevics d rating is 103, harkless is 107.... So there goes your argument.... And because moe is 20 he will improve but since Tobias is ALMOST 21 and vuc ALMOST 23 they will NOT improve? Ok got it... Is that the same logic you use to say the sky is green and the grass is blue? Sure seems that way... Backwards

Defensive rating doesn't tell you anything. Big men historically are favorable when it come to d-rating. Don't quote me, but I remember one of the years Dwight won DPOY, his d-rating was worse than some players that aren't known as good defenders.

You got to watch the game to know. Looking at stats doesn't tell you the complete picture.

Defense is important, you can't just look at ppg. Some players score 15ppg is better than players that score 20ppg. Why? Because that 15ppg guy limits his man to 10pt, while that 20ppg guy allows his man to score 25pt. That's why players like Ryno and Redick are overrated; sure they can score, but then they let their man scores more than them.

This time next year you guys going to say I was right.

[D J C]

So by the 36mpg theory, AN is projected to be a 17/8 player. Considering he got stronger this off season and he continues to improve his jumper, its not crazy to say he could be a 20 ppg player.

[Neon1]

In the last February 19th on (final 30 games) , Harkless averaged 13.4 ppg and that includes a game where he got injured after 8 minutes and didn't score. He did that as a 19 year old rookie, so why am I supposed to believe his upside is 12 ppg? I mean, I don't see him as a 20 ppg scorer myself but he can easily be one of those athletic slashing forwards that will score 15-18 ppg and play great defense. But some of you would rather give minutes to freakin Glen Davis? You gotta be kidding me...

I don't think anyone wants to take minutes away from Harkless and give them to BBD...

A few pages back, Neon1 said that if healthy Davis should start and Harkless be the odd man out.

Not what I said. The original question was that if the roster remains AS-IS what will the rotation be.

If it were up to me, I would have traded Baby already, Afflalo too.

[rcklsscognition]

So by the 36mpg theory, AN is projected to be a 17/8 player. Considering he got stronger this off season and he continues to improve his jumper, its not crazy to say he could be a 20 ppg player.

I would agree with you here because he has 4 seasons of college ball averaging 57% from the field or better. I don't see any proof that NBA competition lowers field goal percentages. I also projected him to be 16-20PPG and 8 boards. Not bad.

[G-Heel]

Because you play your five best players in the starting lineup... It's no coincidence that we were damn near a .500 team in the beginning of the year with Davis and when moe was playing all those minutes we won all of what, 4 games in the last 2 months?? Davis defense sucks?? Gtfo man, give credit where credit is due... You're all hyped up on moe like he's the second coming of tmac... The dude is gonna be a good role player on a championship team, you can take that to the bank. All of you expecting all star appearances are in for a huge disappointment.

I haven't seen every page of this thread but have read the last 5-10, I didn't see anywhere that anyone said Harkless was a surefire perennial all-star.

We are rebuilding not contending. You don't necessarily start your best 5 players if you have some guys that you think could play a big role in the future. I think Harkless will play a much bigger role after the rebuild then Big Baby. I see no point taking away Harkless minutes for Big Baby. I don't see why Harkless can't be a valuable role player as the 4th or 5th scoring option on a winning team. He's got very good defensive instincts that IMO will only go up as he gets more comfortable and confident in the NBA.

Because people can be so shortsighted. I can understand if they think the coach will start BBD because he's a veteran, but I feel like some of them want BBD to start. Mind boggling.

[tiderulz]

Players generally never become significantly better than they were in their 1st NBA season.

where do you get this? Tony Parker was 9 ppg, 4 apg in 30 mpg his first year. I would say he is significantly better. Carlos Boozer, 10 ppg 7 rpg, Noah 6 ppg 5 rpg, Al Horford 10 ppg 9 rpg. need i even mention Dwight Howard? all played significant minutes.

Yes, if you are Lebron or Chris Paul or KG, absolute studs coming into the league you dont become significantly better, but that is like 10% of the league at absolute best.

Some of the best point guards in the game got better is assisting as their careers progress. Nash was a mediocre assist guy for many years. Parker owns a career 6 APG stat and only had one really down season, his 1st year, at 4.3. I'm not sure what happened to him that first year, because it looks like season 2 he comes out shooting 4 more shots a game all of a sudden.

I don't think Dwight's projections are that far off from what you'd think he'd do after year 1. He was able to score more points than expected, but rebounds and blocks are fairly close to projections.

Boozer would have projected to be a 15/10 guy I think. Fairly accurate.

Horford is scoring a few PPG more than projected, but over his career, is only 2.5PPG more than projected off 1st year.

Like I said, it's not perfect, but you can get a great idea for what a player will be. I'm sure there are cases where the player took a huge leap, but in most cases, it's very telling. Just looking at those guys you mentioned though, you definitely pick up the stragglers on year 2. By then, you should know who you're getting for sure.

you did see that I included Parkers points too. and yes, you can get an idea of what a player will be like, but you blatantly said that a player will never get really better than their first year, which is horribly inaccurate.