2013-2014 Wizard's lineup

[payitforward]

Seraphin's Synergy page says that overall teams shot 43.3% against him. Omer Asik's opponents shot 43.4% against him overall.

Which still doesn't address my point. I acknowledged Seraphin has been a good individual defender in stretches, especially teamed with Okafor and to a lesser extent Nene, but that 43.4% doesn't account for the shots he doesn't challenge because his rotations are poor.

Or the extra shots he gives opponents, because he doesn't defensive rebound.
Or the extra shots he gives teams because he turns it over so much.
Or the extra shots he *costs* his own team because he doesn't get offensive boards either.

But... tontoz might be right. Seraphin might give us a pleasant surprise -- by being traded.

[payitforward]

Here is a simple way to look at it: every 40 minutes last year, Kevin Seraphin got 5.6 defensive rebounds. Then he gave back 3.0 of them by turning the ball over.

So that makes him a +2.6 in turning the opponent's missed shot into his team having a chance to take a shot.

Kyle O'Quinn, since I mentioned him, got 9.0 defensive rebounds in that same 40 minutes. Then he gave back 2.3 of them in turnovers.

That makes Kyle +6.7 in turning the opponent's missed shot into his team having a chance to take a shot.

4.1 possessions better! Assume for a moment that 4.1 possessions (roughly) turns into 4 points. So every 40 minutes O'Quinn, just on defensive rebounding, is worth 4 more points to his team than KS is to his. Oh, and then there's the 1.6 more *offensive rebounds* -- another extra one and a half points over what Kevin provides.

Then there are the 9 shots Kevin misses in those 40 minutes (Kyle only misses 6). In the nature of things, most of those misses give the opponent a defensive rebound, right? Ouch!

Now... Kevin does make 1.4 shots than Kyle -- that helps make up some for the misses. And we'll ignore the fact that Kyle gets almost twice the number of assists per 40 minutes as Kevin.

Note: we are comparing Kevin Seraphin to *a rookie* who was *a late round 2 pick.*

I"m sorry; I loved the pick, and I think he's a terrific guy, but Kevin Seraphin until now -- in more than 3500 minutes -- has been a terrible NBA player. I don't know why anyone should expect the drastic improvement it would take to make him even acceptable.

[hands11]

How I currently view the roster:

PG John Wall (36 min) / Unsigned 3rd guard (24 min)
SG Bradley Beal (36 min)
SF Otto Porter Jr. (28 min) / Trevor Ariza (20 min) / Glen Rice Jr.
PF Nene (28 min) / Trevor Booker (20 min) / Jan Vesely / Chris Singleton
CE Emeka Okafor (28 min) / Kevin Seraphin (20 min)

Here's how I view an ideal rotation for the Wizards. 9 guys total. A core of 4 guys off the bench that see 20 minutes or more. Porter's minutes would likely start off at 20 or so and gradually increase as the year goes on. To build continuity I would start Porter immediately with Wall & Beal and simply limit his minutes initially to build confidence & avoid overexposure.

Right now I see 6 spots locked down by quality players. Wall, Beal, Porter, Nene, Okafor & Ariza. IMO the remaining 3 spots in the rotation remain a question mark and an upgrade is likely needed at each of these spots.

1. We have no 3rd guard to speak off. Last year 3rd guard was really held by two players (at least by the end of the year), a fringe backup PG in Price and a fringe backup SG in Temple who came straight out of the D league. We very well may stay with the status quo and resign both to maintain those backup spots. That would be a mistake IMO considering how steep the difference is b/w our starters and Temple & Price as backups. Better depth is essential IMO. Nate Robinson is clearly my #1 choice at this stage and I'd go after him hard. I also like Patty Mills as a backup option to Nate.

2. Trevor Booker is our backup PF at the moment. Maybe the front office wants to give Vesely & Singleton extended opportunities to steal a rotation spot. Personally I think it's time to give up on those two. Booker is a passable backup option but injuries, P&R defense and a lack of skill on offense make him less than an ideal candidate. But out of the three rotation spots in question, Booker is the best qualified to remain in the rotation. Ideally a stretch 4 would replace Booker, move into the starting lineup and allow Nene to be the 3rd big and first big off the bench.

3. Kevin Seraphin is probably the best hope for any of Ernie's kids to breakout but his level of play at backup C was atrocious. A piss poor team defender, a non-entity on the boards and incredibly inefficient offensively, Seraphin has a long way to go to be passable. Any improvement by the Wizards this offseason could easily be sabotaged if Seraphin is leaned on for heavy minutes (should Okafor or Nene be injured) and duplicates last season's effort. Getting a legitimate backup C like Zaza Pachulia, Chris Andersen or Samuel Dalembert would offer some needed insurance in case Kevin Seraphin falls on his face once again.

No way those are the minutes. You didn't work Webster in there.

[hands11]

PG Wall 36-38, Maynor 10-12
SG Beal 32 , Web 16 MPG
SF Web 12, Otto 24, Ariza 12
PF Ariza 12, TBD 31 mins open, Nene 5
C Nene 22, Okafor 26

With talk of an AJ return, would they actually throw the youngs under the bus and do this ?


PG Wall 36-38, Maynor 10-12
SG Beal 32 , Web 16 MPG, Temple
SF Web 12, Otto 24, Ariza 12
PF Ariza 12, AJ 25, 11 min left for one of Kevin, Ves, Booker or they beat out Ariza and or AJ for more
C Nene 24, Okafor 24

Singleton, Rice - until he proves himself.

Plus, Ariza missed a lot of games the last two years.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/i ... evor-ariza

That would be the deepest team they have had in a long time. And you can always role Nene to PF and Okafor at center and put Kevin at back up center if he is playing well or there are injuries. AJ gives you a little Nene insurance in case he misses games. Not perfect but better then not having him. At least for this year.

AJ might be able to help Otto with some PF post game. Sure he would like Otto as a student more then he did Dray.

[Knighthonor]

PG Wall 36-38, Maynor 10-12
SG Beal 32 , Web 16 MPG
SF Web 12, Otto 24, Ariza 12
PF Ariza 12, TBD 31 mins open, Nene 5
C Nene 22, Okafor 26

With talk of an AJ return, would they actually throw the youngs under the bus and do this ?


PG Wall 36-38, Maynor 10-12
SG Beal 32 , Web 16 MPG, Temple
SF Web 12, Otto 24, Ariza 12
PF Ariza 12, AJ 25, 11 min left for one of Kevin, Ves, Booker or they beat out Ariza and or AJ for more
C Nene 24, Okafor 24

Singleton, Rice - until he proves himself.

Plus, Ariza missed a lot of games the last two years.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/i ... evor-ariza

That would be the deepest team they have had in a long time. And you can always role Nene to PF and Okafor at center and put Kevin at back up center if he is playing well or there are injuries. AJ gives you a little Nene insurance in case he misses games. Not perfect but better then not having him. At least for this year.

AJ might be able to help Otto with some PF post game. Sure he would like Otto as a student more then he did Dray.

i still don't understand how you leave Rice out of that lineup. He better than Otto is.

[deneem4]

I think satorsky is going to be pretty good...and the wiz shouldve given him his chance 1st before signing Maynor

[MJ7]

I don't get some of you guys. You pick Otto Porter 3rd, yet you don't start him? He is the third overall pick. Also, he is not an 18 year old Euro who you stash, he's comparable to Prince/Leonard and you DON'T start him? Maintaining a consistent core is a part of developing a team.

[closg00]

I think satorsky is going to be pretty good...and the wiz shouldve given him his chance 1st before signing Maynor

He isn't an NBA player yet.

[Dat2U]

I think satorsky is going to be pretty good...and the wiz shouldve given him his chance 1st before signing Maynor

He isn't an NBA player yet.

Neither is Maynor.

[nate33]

I think satorsky is going to be pretty good...and the wiz shouldve given him his chance 1st before signing Maynor

He isn't an NBA player yet.

Neither is Maynor.

[hands11]

PG Wall 36-38, Maynor 10-12
SG Beal 32 , Web 16 MPG
SF Web 12, Otto 24, Ariza 12
PF Ariza 12, TBD 31 mins open, Nene 5
C Nene 22, Okafor 26

With talk of an AJ return, would they actually throw the youngs under the bus and do this ?


PG Wall 36-38, Maynor 10-12
SG Beal 32 , Web 16 MPG, Temple
SF Web 12, Otto 24, Ariza 12
PF Ariza 12, AJ 25, 11 min left for one of Kevin, Ves, Booker or they beat out Ariza and or AJ for more
C Nene 24, Okafor 24

Singleton, Rice - until he proves himself.

Plus, Ariza missed a lot of games the last two years.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/i ... evor-ariza

That would be the deepest team they have had in a long time. And you can always role Nene to PF and Okafor at center and put Kevin at back up center if he is playing well or there are injuries. AJ gives you a little Nene insurance in case he misses games. Not perfect but better then not having him. At least for this year.

AJ might be able to help Otto with some PF post game. Sure he would like Otto as a student more then he did Dray.

i still don't understand how you leave Rice out of that lineup. He better than Otto is.

You used the #3 pick on Otto. I'm sure he will be given a greater chance then Glen. Glen said himself in an interview he is SG. Well that leaves him behind Beal and behind Webster for now.

By next year, Otto will have enough seasoning that you can start to replace all, not part, of Trevor A's minutes with him. He needs to add some weight and get stronger if he want to get some mins at PF.

Glen is Beal and Webster at SG injury protection. That is his job. That and clean up minutes in blow outs.

Thats the way it is on a deeper team for a 2nd round pick rookie. Hell, I don't even think Otto starts to begin the year.

[hands11]

I don't get some of you guys. You pick Otto Porter 3rd, yet you don't start him? He is the third overall pick. Also, he is not an 18 year old Euro who you stash, he's comparable to Prince/Leonard and you DON'T start him? Maintaining a consistent core is a part of developing a team.

I don't believe Leonard started the year as a starter.

And had the Wizards had more depth, Beal shouldn't have started either. Specially since there wasn't a PG out there for him to play his game. I personally think its part of the reason he struggled so bad with shooting to start the year. He was a better catch and shoot and he was forced to great his own spacing. So he got blocked a lot. That affected his rhythm and confidence.

He would have had an easier go of it against other teams 2nd units while he adjusted.

Now the counter to that is, well he learned how good he would need to be if he wanted to be the primary scorer on a team. Counter to that is, that is not who he is when Wall is healthy. He is a 1/2nd scorer who gets set up.

Arguments can be made both ways. But I prefer not to start rookies unless the team is void of talent. Even then I don't like it. Maybe 20 games in or so, but not to start the year. Its just to much for most of them to handle all at once.

[MCoster]

PG Wall 37, Maynor 11
SG Beal 32 , Web 16
SF Web 12, Porter 24, Ariza 12
PF Nene 25, Booker 13, Ariza 10
C Okafor 28 Seraphin 15, Nene 5

Totals: Wall 37; Beal 32; Webster 28; Okafor 28; Nene 25; Porter 24; Ariza 22; Seraphin 15; Booker 13; Maynor 11.
Rice, Jan, Singleton get garbage time. Rice picks up about 15 minutes if a 2-3 gets hurt. Jan about 10 if a 4-5 gets hurt.

[deneem4]

Wall/maynor/satorsky
Beal/rice
Porter/webster/singleton
Nene/jan
Okafor/seraphin

I got a feeling ariza and booker will be traded...satorsky will play this yr

[Upper Decker]

PG Wall 37, Maynor 11
SG Beal 32 , Web 16
SF Web 12, Porter 24, Ariza 12
PF Nene 25, Booker 13, Ariza 10
C Okafor 28 Seraphin 15, Nene 5

Totals: Wall 37; Beal 32; Webster 28; Okafor 28; Nene 25; Porter 24; Ariza 22; Seraphin 15; Booker 13; Maynor 11.
Rice, Jan, Singleton get garbage time. Rice picks up about 15 minutes if a 2-3 gets hurt. Jan about 10 if a 4-5 gets hurt.

For better or worse this is the team going into next year. If everyones healthy and Wall plays like mini-lebron, as he did in March & April, what is the ceiling? 6th seed? New York will likely slide (age, no guards, no salary), any chance for the 5th seed?

[MCoster]

PG Wall 37, Maynor 11
SG Beal 32 , Web 16
SF Web 12, Porter 24, Ariza 12
PF Nene 25, Booker 13, Ariza 10
C Okafor 28 Seraphin 15, Nene 5

Totals: Wall 37; Beal 32; Webster 28; Okafor 28; Nene 25; Porter 24; Ariza 22; Seraphin 15; Booker 13; Maynor 11.
Rice, Jan, Singleton get garbage time. Rice picks up about 15 minutes if a 2-3 gets hurt. Jan about 10 if a 4-5 gets hurt.

For better or worse this is the team going into next year. If everyones healthy and Wall plays like mini-lebron, as he did in March & April, what is the ceiling? 6th seed? New York will likely slide (age, no guards, no salary), any chance for the 5th seed?

Nah can't see outplaying Knicks yet. 6th seed is the cieling. Should be borderline playoff team

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Thinking the season could begin with starting lineup Wall, Beal, Ariza, Nene, Okafor.

2nd string would be looking Maynor, Webster, Porter, Booker, Seraphin.

[Rafael122]

Thinking the season could begin with starting lineup Wall, Beal, Ariza, Nene, Okafor.

2nd string would be looking Maynor, Webster, Porter, Booker, Seraphin.

I think this is what is going to happen. I initially focused on the idea that there's going to be 3 small forwards on this team, but they could very well move Webster to the 2-guard spot full time or move him to the 3 in specific matchups. Wittman's going to have to get creative but it wouldn't shock me if Webster is officially the back up 2.

Wall/Maynor
Beal/Webster
Ariza/Porter/Rice
Nene/Booker/Vesely/Singleton
Okafor/Seraphin

Temple would be the swing guard that could play the 1 or 2. This also lessens the stress on Witt in trying to find minutes for Martell.

[Deeptu McPullup]

Not really the right place for this, but as the defacto "next season" thread.......

[tweet]https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/352293458892951552[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/352293972615499776[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/352295270245085184[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/352295715730489346[/tweet]

That's a herd of Eastern teams swimmin' in slop next year.

The Bucks aren't looking to be doing much so far either, so if they along with the the Hawks and Raptors go gutter ball, it'd be almost impossible to miss the playoffs next year. The sixth seed might well be sitting there for a .500 team.

According to what I could see in a quick glance of Basketball Reference, over the last five years, the only teams with a healthy guard registering a regular season PER over 21 that missed the playoffs were the 2013 Kyrie Irving Cavaliers (he actually missed a number of games though they wouldn't have made the playoffs with him healthy either). I think I'll go over the list again and push it out to 8 years or so, but I believe that's correct (conversely, there's been a good number of highly productive one-way bigs who rebound on terrible teams).

Maybe something like.....

1. MIA
2. CHI
3. IND
4. BKN
5. NYK
6. WAS
7-8. CLE / DET / MIL / TOR

If we land a Milsap/Thaddeus level guy and maintain a modicum of health, we prolly scrap for fourth over the New York Creaky Knees and Brooklyn Broke Downs.

Edit to add:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/352298604892930048[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/352299618475835393[/tweet]

Put me in favor of the Kings winning the lottery and Wiggins doing a "go west, young man".

Concerning that Phoenix is the only sure-fire western tanker.

[hands11]

Thinking the season could begin with starting lineup Wall, Beal, Ariza, Nene, Okafor.

2nd string would be looking Maynor, Webster, Porter, Booker, Seraphin.

I think this is what is going to happen. I initially focused on the idea that there's going to be 3 small forwards on this team, but they could very well move Webster to the 2-guard spot full time or move him to the 3 in specific matchups. Wittman's going to have to get creative but it wouldn't shock me if Webster is officially the back up 2.

Wall/Maynor
Beal/Webster
Ariza/Porter/Rice
Nene/Booker/Vesely/Singleton
Okafor/Seraphin

Temple would be the swing guard that could play the 1 or 2. This also lessens the stress on Witt in trying to find minutes for Martell.

Why do you have Trevor A starting over Webster ?
Beal will get at least 32 min, so you have Webster only playing 16 min ?
What happens 5 games in when Booker pulls up injured ?
So you have a rookie Porter, Booker and Kevin together on the 2nd line or Porter, Ves, Kevin ?

I think something like this works better.

PG Wall 36-38, Maynor 10-12, Temple
SG Beal 32 , Web 16 MPG, Temple
SF Web 12, Otto 24, Ariza 12
PF Ariza 12, TBD 31 mins open, Nene 5
C Nene 22, Okafor 26

TBD Mins are Kevin, Ves, Booker, Singleton

But I guess we need to wait until we have a final roster. They might be trade of Trevor A or Okafor.

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