ESPN Analytics-based projection has Nets with 64-18 record

[Paradise]

ESPN's Brad Doolittle has some concerns about the Nets future, which he expressed the day after the Celtics trade, but once he ran everything --well, everything we know now-- through his computer model, the Nets came out on top ... . His analysis projects the Nets will finish with a 64-18 record, best in the East, two games better than the Heat..

Here's how he came up with it...

"I employed the ATH-based projection system of NBAPET, my collection of integrated spreadsheets that serves as a projection, evaluation and tracking model.

"In a nutshell, the system uses ATH ratings to generate baseline projections for each player, then integrates the baseline forecasts into 30 team forecasts. Since there are only 1,230 wins to go around, every move affects every other team. So every time a transaction occurs and I update the rosters and balance the minutes, the projected standings change at least a little."

Well, we can't vouch for that method, but we did like Doc Rivers' very non-analytic projection of how the trade will effect the Nets. He told Dan Patrick last Friday that the Nets will be "right up there" with other teams in the East.

"Right up there. With Jason Kidd and Lawrence Frank, who was with me -- he's going to be terrific by the way for Jason -- I think that is a super hire by Jason Kidd and you know, I'm just going to let them fight it out. But their culture just changed. When you bring Kevin Garnett into a basketball team, you have an immediate culture change.

"Forget the on-court stuff. They're going to benefit so much just from having Kevin Garnett on the roster. It's going to be an amazing transformation!"

http://www.netsdaily.com/2013/7/3/44918 ... est-record

I highly doubt we finish ahead of Miami but assuming we're healthy can we reach 60 wins?

[Nondescript]

Just how accurate is this computer thing?

Edit: To answer the question, maybe, if we get lucky.

[vincecarter4pres]

Just how accurate is this computer thing?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eA3XCvrK90[/youtube]

[Paradise]

Just how accurate is this computer thing?

It's pretty much inaccurate in a 5 or 6 game differential. Typical ESPN. Seems to be the new Hollinger forecast.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/art ... cleid=2406


However, it's a good sign atleast. Vegas odds has us #2 best championship odds in the East behind Miami, so there is some positive signs from the Analytics side.

[FlopShow2013]

Cs fan here.

I think best option for Nets is to not try too hard. Rest PP and KG as much as possible. May be Lopez too (injury).

Target the championship. Don't bother with the top 3-4 seeding. It does not matter.

[BK nets BK]

It can be done if no injury happen at all, I honestly believe we win around 58 games

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[EGarrett]

It seems to me like the Nets are becoming one of the premiere franchises of the NBA, but 64-18 is a bit optimistic even for me. It almost feels like a jinx...especially with potential health issues.

Can we go with 59-23 instead? That's a nice number.

[MrDollarBills]

56 wins is probably where we'll be at. We need to at least be the 2nd seed. We can achieve that even with resting KG, PP, and JJ on certain games/stretches.

Deron, Brook, and Blatche will need to carry the load some nights.

[vincecarter4pres]

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1258956&start=60#p36321830

[CalamityX12]

Brush your shoulders' off?

[Rich Rane]

If everyone's healthy for an entire season and the team doesn't worry about minutes whatsoever and Kidd is a spectacular coach? Sure, I could see 64. Realistically, I'm hoping for mid-50s. Hell, I might even settle for 45 just for everyone to be healthy and ready to go come playoffs.

[bobbyc]

Even if KG and Paul Pierce were out the entire year from injury we would be about just as good as last year, 49 wins.

**** coaching, A far inferior lineup, and an injury to Deron got us to 49 wins. So in a perfect world we could get 64. But, its the NBA you never know what could happen (injuries, chemistry).

[jeff1624]

50-55 wins.

I want the Nets to handle KG the same way Popovich does Duncan; rest him on the second game of a back to back and to take a game or two off during a long road trip. I want him to be in excellent shape in the playoffs. No need to complicate things during the regular season.

[Ronito]

Give it a 1% chance of happening because we will monitoring the minutes of KG and PP. We're not going to go all out in the regular season.

[Basileus777]

I'd have more confidence if our bench wasn't such a big question mark on the wings and at pg. I'm thinking mid 50s, less if we have injuries because our depth sucks.

[NyCeEvO]

I just want to see more than 50 wins.

As long as we're healthy and have more than 50 wins, I'll be satisfied heading into the playoffs.

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[MrDollarBills]

50-55 wins.

I want the Nets to handle KG the same way Popovich does Duncan; rest him on the second game of a back to back and to take a game or two off during a long road trip. I want him to be in excellent shape in the playoffs. No need to complicate things during the regular season.

Exactly. We also want to position ourselves to where we can hold off playing Miami until the ECF

[Keith Van Horn]

I just want the 1-3 seed.

I'm thinking we can get to 60 wins if Kidd manages these guys correctly, but realistically thinking around 56 wins.


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[2Mas]

I think you guys need a back up SF to ease Pierce. KG has Blatche to take the pressure off him. KG could play his 24-26mins a game & let Blatche handle the rest.

I'm just worried about over playing PP.

Buttt.. JKidd knows how it is to be old & playing heavy minutes, so i'm sure he'll understand.

This is gonna be an awesome team to watch on the sideline. The wisdom between Kidd, Pierce & Garnett is insane. Plus they have an asst like Frank to really be the coach as well. Gonna be great to see.

[FirstBallotKG]

I can see this Brooklyn roster w a gaudy 64-18 record ONLY if there are no MAJOR injuries to the starting 5. I'm sure that is what the projections were based on, everyone playing ALL 82 games. However, that is the looming question for this season: How many games will the starting five of the Nets play this season?

Personally, I think the retaining of Reggie Evans AND Andray Blatche are huge for KG - given his minutes will be, obviously, monitored. Those guys will be able to help with rotating the bigs, so that no one player is logging 35+min per game [including Brook Lopez].

The other factor why I believe they will have a great record this season is because of their division. The Celtics & Sixers are undergoing a change of identity, as well as hopeful of being in range to draft Wiggins or Parker. Consequently, the Atlantic division is going to be a two-team race between the Knicks & Nets - yes, I am ignoring the Raptors squad for division honors. That means, out of the 16 mandatory divisional games, the Knicks and Raptors are the only ones I could see splitting with this team. And that projects them with a divisional record of 12-4. That's my expectations for the Nets within the division.

And now, within the Eastern Conference...
well, there are so many teams right now that are positioning themselves for the upcoming draft THIS season, I think the Eastern Conference will be incredibly top-heavy w the expected teams competing for elite status.

And this is where it gets interesting for the Nets.

If the Nets can stay healthy - the number one wildcard for this team - they will be a tough team for any Western Conference team to match up with, given they're only playing them twice in the season. In the regular season, a lot of games are won because of the schedules. 3 game road trips or back-to-back games. This Nets team has so many weapons, that it would be very difficult to prepare for them out of the many games in the schedule. So scheduling will actually work towards their favor in that regards.

All that said, I think the Nets will have the second best record in the Eastern conference to the Heat. Especially, when you consider that the Nets will be in the weakest division of the NBA for the next season. Those games against lottery-bound teams adds up to the win record. The w/l record that I predict for the Brooklyn Nets is: 58 wins and 24 losses. There will be a double-digit win streak - most likely early in the season while KG & The Truth have fresh legs. And they'll have home-court until they play the Heat in the ECF.

Of course, if the Nets were to have 64 wins, I think that would mean they'd have the best record in the East - as I imagine the Heat are going to limit Wade's minutes and games this regular season. And with the best record in the post-season, I think the Nets could beat the Heat in a game 7 in Brooklyn w everyone healthy. So here's hoping for ESPN's prediction to come true! lol