Official Speculation Thread (Pt.LIX Offseason Edition)

[Neon1]

This makes no sense at all for Portland, none.

[RYgoBOOM]

I don't get the people trying to help us get that 8th seed..........


Nelson/Lamb
Oladipo/AA
Harris/Harkless
LA/Harris
Vucevic/Oquinn

Our team would be stuck in the 8th seed purgatory for 2-3 years with that roster. LA isn't going from a team like the Blazers to the magic.....cmon people




I do agree with us being potentially involved with that trade but we would NEVER take back LA. We aren't ready for a playoff push just yet.

[MagicFan41]

OK, since people seem to think Portland has no incentive to do this (I think differently), what other teams could Bogut be shopped to in the deal? Clearly he needs to find a landing spot for this to work.

[yoyojw17]

So the Warriors are evidently trying to trade Bogut, Jefferson, Biedrins to create cap room for Dwight. Is it just me or are we the ONLY team in the league basically that could absorb this much salary? (NOBODY wants Jefferson or Biedrins so I don't see how they get rid of those two guys). What about this:

Orlando in:
Biedrins
Jefferson
Aldridge

Orlando out:
BBD
Al Harrington
Denver/NY 2014 pick
$3mil cash
(TPE)

GSW in:
Al Harrington
$3mil cash from ORL

GSW out:
Biedrins
Jefferson
Bogut

Portland out:
Aldridge

Portland in:
BBD
Bogut
DEN/NY 2014 1st from ORL
(TPE from ORL)


Before everyone goes crazy about how amazing Aldridge in and how Portland would never trade him for that, Bogut (if healthy) is quite a haul...a top 5 center in the league. They could always trade him at the deadline as an expiring if he doesn't work out. They're also getting back a solid PF in BBD and a pick in next year's draft. Aldridge already has hinted that he wants out of Portland anyways, so I think they will try to trade him soon. I realize Aldridge hurts our tanking but we are picking up a top 5 PF to pair with Vuc. At some point, if a trade for star-power comes along it's something we may need to consider. Portland would run with:

Lillard
Matthews/McCollum
Batum
BBD
Bogut

GSW clear enough room to go for Dwight like they're wanting. They can take back our Harrington contract (we can throw in the $3mil to pay for his buyout for this year).

I don't see Portland getting involved in this trade, it really doesn't make sense for them. They don't want to and certainly don't appear ready to move Aldridge, despite any rumors. It's just too early for them to get involved.

If a deal happens it's going to be a straight salary dump by GSW and we're not going to be unloading any contracts unless that move has an immediate impact on GSW's cap - meaning, Turk or Al, if they were to turn around and immediately exercise their releases.

But they don't need us to do that. They need us to absorb around 15-18 Million in salary so they have the room to sign Dwight. That's two of those players, and if we do that to facilitate the deal, we obviously want something in return. Is Bogut enough of a return? Maybe he is, but I question his health. I'm guessing either one young player or a pick or two would have to be involved to incent us to take such a deal.

Now, could you then chase Aldridge later on? Well, maybe, but I can't see that getting wrapped in here.

yeah.... I don't see them getting involved either...or moving Aldridge. They've done well this offseason...picking up CJ...which i think will make a nice tandem with lillard. And they've made it a point to add defensive centers like Withey and Lopez. I think they will be a much improved team compared to last season. kind of excited for them.

Orlando helping to facilitate a GSW pickup of Howard would be very feasible. And i think they would much prefer to give away picks than either barnes or thompson. only in and extreme situation would they do that. bogut + fillers + a couple of 1st round picks (though low) aren't bad at all while still maintaining cap flexibility.

[NEM]

This makes no sense at all for Portland, none.

Nope

[MagicFan41]

I don't get the people trying to help us get that 8th seed..........


Nelson/Lamb
Oladipo/AA
Harris/Harkless
LA/Harris
Vucevic/Oquinn

Our team would be stuck in the 8th seed purgatory for 2-3 years with that roster. LA isn't going from a team like the Blazers to the magic.....cmon people




I do agree with us being potentially involved with that trade but we would NEVER take back LA. We aren't ready for a playoff push just yet.

This idea of a team never being able to go from playoff meddler to contender is silly. The Heat did it. The Celtics did it. Memphis did it. Pacers did it. Houston might be about to do it. The Lakers did it about 6 years ago. Brooklyn maybe just did it within a year. Almost none of those teams did it directly through the draft (or getting very high pick). They pretty much all did it through free agency/trade. Just because you are meddling in the 8-seed range doesn't mean you aren't setting up the future to be bright too. We would still have cap room next summer to go after a max guy and another solid role player, even with Aldridge in the lineup (his salary just takes the place of Harrington+BBD). Plus, the young guys will be developing even more. So maybe we are an 8-seed for a year but next year we are a 5-seed and the following year a 2-3 seed. You don't HAVE to build through the draft to become a contender. If we would have drafted Vuc, Harris, Harkless, Oladipo, Aldridge within the past 2 years I think people would be extremely ecstatic. Everyone just gets super-enamored with building through the draft because it worked out very well for OKC.

[Def Swami]

Marc Stein ‏@ESPNSteinLine 8m
Jazz have expressed strongest interest to date in Bogut, sources say. No surprise after Al Jefferson's departure and Bogut's college ties

[MagicFan41]

So the Warriors are evidently trying to trade Bogut, Jefferson, Biedrins to create cap room for Dwight. Is it just me or are we the ONLY team in the league basically that could absorb this much salary? (NOBODY wants Jefferson or Biedrins so I don't see how they get rid of those two guys). What about this:

Orlando in:
Biedrins
Jefferson
Aldridge

Orlando out:
BBD
Al Harrington
Denver/NY 2014 pick
$3mil cash
(TPE)

GSW in:
Al Harrington
$3mil cash from ORL

GSW out:
Biedrins
Jefferson
Bogut

Portland out:
Aldridge

Portland in:
BBD
Bogut
DEN/NY 2014 1st from ORL
(TPE from ORL)


Before everyone goes crazy about how amazing Aldridge in and how Portland would never trade him for that, Bogut (if healthy) is quite a haul...a top 5 center in the league. They could always trade him at the deadline as an expiring if he doesn't work out. They're also getting back a solid PF in BBD and a pick in next year's draft. Aldridge already has hinted that he wants out of Portland anyways, so I think they will try to trade him soon. I realize Aldridge hurts our tanking but we are picking up a top 5 PF to pair with Vuc. At some point, if a trade for star-power comes along it's something we may need to consider. Portland would run with:

Lillard
Matthews/McCollum
Batum
BBD
Bogut

GSW clear enough room to go for Dwight like they're wanting. They can take back our Harrington contract (we can throw in the $3mil to pay for his buyout for this year).

I don't see Portland getting involved in this trade, it really doesn't make sense for them. They don't want to and certainly don't appear ready to move Aldridge, despite any rumors. It's just too early for them to get involved.

If a deal happens it's going to be a straight salary dump by GSW and we're not going to be unloading any contracts unless that move has an immediate impact on GSW's cap - meaning, Turk or Al, if they were to turn around and immediately exercise their releases.

But they don't need us to do that. They need us to absorb around 15-18 Million in salary so they have the room to sign Dwight. That's two of those players, and if we do that to facilitate the deal, we obviously want something in return. Is Bogut enough of a return? Maybe he is, but I question his health. I'm guessing either one young player or a pick or two would have to be involved to incent us to take such a deal.

Now, could you then chase Aldridge later on? Well, maybe, but I can't see that getting wrapped in here.

yeah.... I don't see them getting involved either...or moving Aldridge. They've done well this offseason...picking up CJ...which i think will make a nice tandem with lillard. And they've made it a point to add defensive centers like Withey and Lopez. I think they will be a much improved team compared to last season. kind of excited for them.

Orlando helping to facilitate a GSW pickup of Howard would be very feasible. And i think they would much prefer to give away picks than either barnes or thompson. only in and extreme situation would they do that. bogut + fillers + a couple of 1st round picks (though low) aren't bad at all while still maintaining cap flexibility.

OK, I think everyone has no clue about GSWs cap situation. They have $70mil in salary and need to get rid of all 3 of those contracts in order to have room for Dwight (unless they work out a sign-and-trade). I don't foresee us getting just some crappy late 1st round picks for taking on two horrendous contracts. So Bogut needs to find a landing spot and we have to be getting back a decent asset in return. Who is in the market for a solid big man?

Portland
Miami
OKC
Cleveland
maybe Atlanta
Toronto
Houston (doubt they would help Dwight to GSW)
Utah
Denver

Anybody else?

Which of those teams may be interested in Bogut and who could they give back?

Maybe Bogut and Afflalo to Utah and they give us back Millsap (sign and trade)?

[Smooth_E]

Marc Stein ‏@ESPNSteinLine 8m
Jazz have expressed strongest interest to date in Bogut, sources say. No surprise after Al Jefferson's departure and Bogut's college ties

I'm not a big fan of speculation, but if we could make a move for Biedrins, Jefferson and Barnes I'm all in.

TPE to absorb Biedrins and move Afflalo for Barnes. Perhaps something along the lines of this as long as we end up with Barnes.

Nelson/Oladipo/Barnes/Harris/Vucevic
Moore/Lamb /Harkless/Nicholson/Biedrins

[Def Swami]

Jonathan Givony ‏@DraftExpress 54m
Dante Exum putting on a show here in Prague--scoring, defending, distributing and everything else. Australia up 35-22 on Spain. #fibau19

Danny Chau ‏@dannychau 14m
Jeez, Dante Exum's talent level is about three tiers higher than anyone else sharing the court with him right now.

Fran Fraschilla ‏@franfraschilla 5m
Every now & then over thirty years you watch someone special. Today it's Dante Exum. 22 points as Aussies surprising Spain right now, 66-48.

Fran Fraschilla ‏@franfraschilla 8m
Mark this down: Dante Exum could go in Top 5 next June.

Time to start paying attention to Exum.

[Smooth_E]

Jonathan Givony ‏@DraftExpress 54m
Dante Exum putting on a show here in Prague--scoring, defending, distributing and everything else. Australia up 35-22 on Spain. #fibau19

Danny Chau ‏@dannychau 14m
Jeez, Dante Exum's talent level is about three tiers higher than anyone else sharing the court with him right now.

Fran Fraschilla ‏@franfraschilla 5m
Every now & then over thirty years you watch someone special. Today it's Dante Exum. 22 points as Aussies surprising Spain right now, 66-48.

Fran Fraschilla ‏@franfraschilla 8m
Mark this down: Dante Exum could go in Top 5 next June.

Time to start paying attention to Exum.

I've already started my own personal scouting for next season. My hope is that we get a top 5 pick, that's all that I ask. Truthfully, in my opinion, there are at least 7 franchise players next draft. If we could somehow get 2...

My top 5 in order (followed by 2):

Wiggins
Parker
Randle
Gordon
Exum

Smart
Aaron Harrison

[Just Plain Mark]

I'm not the most creative in terms of crafting trade ideas, but if the Magic could:

1) absorb some or all of GSW's expirings, and
2) offload Turk or Al, and
3) obtain Barnes to keep or flip

I think it might be worth it to trade with GSW. I also wonder if the Magic could use Bogut or Jefferson to offload AA or BBD.

This kind of trade would require a lot of creativity and potentially a third or fourth team because I don't think paying Biedrins, Bogut and Jefferson (even for one year) is worth a couple of late first round draft picks. The Magic would have to be able to unload some non expirings (Turk, Al, BBD, and/or AA) in addition to getting Barnes or picks to really make this trade worth it because late first round picks can be had for far less than $20 mil.

[LBPTarHeel27]

Jonathan Givony ‏@DraftExpress 54m
Dante Exum putting on a show here in Prague--scoring, defending, distributing and everything else. Australia up 35-22 on Spain. #fibau19

Danny Chau ‏@dannychau 14m
Jeez, Dante Exum's talent level is about three tiers higher than anyone else sharing the court with him right now.

Fran Fraschilla ‏@franfraschilla 5m
Every now & then over thirty years you watch someone special. Today it's Dante Exum. 22 points as Aussies surprising Spain right now, 66-48.

Fran Fraschilla ‏@franfraschilla 8m
Mark this down: Dante Exum could go in Top 5 next June.

Time to start paying attention to Exum.

I've already started my own personal scouting for next season. My hope is that we get a top 5 pick, that's all that I ask. Truthfully, in my opinion, there are at least 7 franchise players next draft. If we could somehow get 2...

My top 5 in order (followed by 2):

Wiggins
Parker
Randle
Gordon
Exum

Smart
Aaron Harrison

So that now makes 7-8 legitimate Top 5 Prospects going in to this college season. Obviously things can change. There will likely be an injury along the way...a player that has a bad year...but to that same token, I am sure that a player or two (like Exum) will come out of nowhere and get his name on the list as well.

I am so excited for the 2013-2014 season to see our guys develop and then to see what happens next summer. All this summer is, for us, is a long anticipation period. Let's just start the season already.

[londoncollin]

Golden State isn't trading Curry, Klay, or Barnes. Rush is obtainable.

[Darth Magic]

Golden State isn't trading Curry, Klay, or Barnes. Rush is obtainable.

You do realize the Warriors are beggars and not choosers right?

[Just Plain Mark]

Golden State isn't trading Curry, Klay, or Barnes. Rush is obtainable.

You could be right, but I have a hard time seeing GSW getting Dwight without trading Barnes. I don't think they'll give up Curry or Klay because that would kill Dwight's interest in them, but Barnes could be the lynchpin to any deal.

Seeing rumours of interest by the Cavs since they have some cap space and a real need at SF.

[_DudeItsMagic_]

Highly doubt we do anything to help GS, especially after they were the ones that (according to reports/rumors at the time) pulled the plug on us acquiring Monte to appease D12 prior to the trade deadline in 2012.

[trebone]

Turk and Al for Biedrins/RJeff/1st would save them a bunch of salary as well. They would be nice trade pieces for us as they expire

[backasswards]

Golden State isn't trading Curry, Klay, or Barnes. Rush is obtainable.

You do realize the Warriors are beggars and not choosers right?

You do realize that the whole point of going after Dwight is to have him play with Curry, Klay or Barnes right?

[KingRobb02]

I don't get the people trying to help us get that 8th seed..........


Nelson/Lamb
Oladipo/AA
Harris/Harkless
LA/Harris
Vucevic/Oquinn

Our team would be stuck in the 8th seed purgatory for 2-3 years with that roster. LA isn't going from a team like the Blazers to the magic.....cmon people




I do agree with us being potentially involved with that trade but we would NEVER take back LA. We aren't ready for a playoff push just yet.

This idea of a team never being able to go from playoff meddler to contender is silly. The Heat did it. The Celtics did it. Memphis did it. Pacers did it. Houston might be about to do it. The Lakers did it about 6 years ago. Brooklyn maybe just did it within a year. Almost none of those teams did it directly through the draft (or getting very high pick). They pretty much all did it through free agency/trade. Just because you are meddling in the 8-seed range doesn't mean you aren't setting up the future to be bright too. We would still have cap room next summer to go after a max guy and another solid role player, even with Aldridge in the lineup (his salary just takes the place of Harrington+BBD). Plus, the young guys will be developing even more. So maybe we are an 8-seed for a year but next year we are a 5-seed and the following year a 2-3 seed. You don't HAVE to build through the draft to become a contender. If we would have drafted Vuc, Harris, Harkless, Oladipo, Aldridge within the past 2 years I think people would be extremely ecstatic. Everyone just gets super-enamored with building through the draft because it worked out very well for OKC.

Not to argue with you, but most of those teams built through either the draft (which is smart) or being gifted a disgruntled player (which probably will never happen for us).

Celtics tanked hard for Oden/Durant. When that didn't worked they traded all of their young guys for a seemingly declining Kevin Garnett and then flipped their top 5 pick in a "loaded" draft for Ray Allen. We can't exactly replicate this because we don't have a 21 year old Al Jefferson, and no team loves us enough to give us a Hall of Famer no matter let alone 2.

Memphis was gifted Zach Randolph (does anyone even remember him as a Clipper?) because they had the money to absorb his contract. Aside from that, the Conleys and Gays were built via sucking for years on end. Gasol came via trading an all-star to the Lakers. We can't really replicate this because we don't have the all-star to trade.

Brooklyn went from a bad team, to a team that spends 80 million dollars in salary for a 1st round exit. But they also built through the lottery. Not saying we would ever want to replicate that, but in order for them to get to this point. Brook was a lottery pick, they had to suck bad enough to get the top 3 pick that they traded for Deron (who had worn out his welcome in Utah), then they got careless and traded another lottery pick for Gerald Wallace's corpse. On top of that, they let Danny Ferry take advantage of them to dump Joe's deal as they were overpaying Kris Humphries to be their 6th man. Like I said, horrible.

Lakers turned their ship around by being gifted Gasol (no matter what Marc became, they basically traded Kwame Brown and a 2nd Rounder for an all-star. That won't happen for us) and they used a lottery pick on Bynum. Basically they used the lottery + luck plan.

The Pacers, like it or not, got better via the draft. Not necessarily high picks, but by picking smartly. Now they have a team that is good enough to make the conference finals if the rest of the contending teams are ravaged by injuries. I actually like the Pacers, but I do think they have had luck on their side with their picks. How many years does a 7'2" C fall into your lap at 17? How often can you get Granger because Orlando doesn't do their research on Fran's interest in playing for them. I like what they did, but they did it by drafting. Their free agency moves have mostly been mistakes. They have overpaid David West twice, regardless of whether or not it has actually hurt them.

Houston didn't really turn things around yet. They've been a 1st round exit team for a decade now, but if they do get Dwight, it will all be because of smart drafting and cap space. This seems to be the plan we are on now, so no need to dig into it.

Right now, I am on the side of us building slowly. We did a good job of tearing things down last year, so no need for us to go trading for big money players that take us from a 20 win team to a 35 win team. That doesn't really help us in the long run. The smart thing is to keep drafting guys we like and waiting for them to develop. We don't need to make a big splash unless it is a move that puts us over the hump.