Big Al's Paint: The Al Jefferson Thread

[JDuaneWayne]

I digress and I apologize but I felt like I was reading the same things over and over. Didn't even post on here much before. Just got sick of the negativity, no matter what move was made it was wrong.

All I will say is it is impossible to know and we won't even have the answers after next season.

Been a fan since day one and for once it feels like we are making calculated moves instead of knee jerk reactions. That alone is enough to give me excitement.

I apologize mainly to jdm3 for not engaging in more intelligent debate.

[Nanogeek]

So the post-mortem is we had two options:

1 - Overpay for a player playing a position that we've invested two lottery picks in over the last 3 years (thus hurting their development) and that will likely hurt our chances to draft high in the best draft in a decade, or

2 - Keep our powder dry and look for opportunities to facilitate deals or benefit from teams trying to get under the luxury tax threshold and continue to develop our young front-line in 2013-14, get a strong pick in the best draft in a decade, and in 2014 offseason with develop young team, a strong rookie prospect and $25m+ in cap space.

And we went with #1.

[dmutombo321]

So the post-mortem is we had two options:

1 - Overpay for a player playing a position that we've invested two lottery picks in over the last 3 years (thus hurting their development) and that will likely hurt our chances to draft high in the best draft in a decade, or

2 - Keep our powder dry and look for opportunities to facilitate deals or benefit from teams trying to get under the luxury tax threshold and continue to develop our young front-line in 2013-14, get a strong pick in the best draft in a decade, and in 2014 offseason with develop young team, a strong rookie prospect and $25m+ in cap space.

And we went with #1.

Concise and accurate synopsis Nano.

Jefferson makes this team better as he's the best low post scorer we've ever had. But he's only good enough to make us marginally better and does it at the most inopportune time with this historic draft around the corner. We likely post a win total in the low to mid 30s or maybe even over achieve and grab an 8th seed with a total in the 40 range (only to get embarrassed and swept out of the first round). Either way, our draft position is shot.

Its a disappointment that the past two years where we've had top 5 picks have happened to have been two of the weakest drafts in memory. That was beyond our control though. Its even more unfortunate that now, on the door step of the most stacked draft of the decade, top heavy with talent, we'll be sitting on the sidelines when the players with franchise changing potential are selected during the first 3-4 picks ( baring a huge statistical defiance of the odds in our favor, a la the '99 hornets when they vaulted into the top three of the lottery, despite having only a .9% chance, to draft Baron Davis).

I would've preferred we wait until next summer, select our top 4 player in the most talented top 4 of any draft that has been held during this franchise's existence, and overpay to offer absurd $ in an effort to try to lure away a 23 yo Favors or Monroe.

Perhaps, as some have suggested, the FO ends up shopping Jefferson at some junction. We can definitely expect him to post career numbers playing for this Bobcats team so his value should be at an all time high. I dont see this upcoming draft as one where you can trade into the top 4 though, at least without mortgaging the farm.

Playing the extreme optimist, its also possible that we catch an under the radar franchise talent in the 7-11 draft range, where we'll be picking during the next several years. But for every one Paul George, there are 25 Gerald Hendersons and Gordan Haywards and another 50 Acie Laws, Aminus, Brandon Wrights etc.

[JT2006]

i am so ready for the stupid term 'butthurt' to be put out to pasture forever. hate it so much.

amen, only fools use it seriously

[nyhuskyfan]

The jury is out on the draft being as historic as people want to hype it. Wiggins seems like a can't miss, but I think we need to see how Randle and Parker do in college and get a sense for how they project to the next level. Barnes and Drummond were productive rookies, but taken lower in the draft than everyone would have figured when they were coming out of HS.

In addition, two of the more hyped drafts over the last decade featured Darko Milicic and Greg Oden going in the top two (or go back to the Olajuwon-Bowie-Jordan top three to see the most famous swing and miss). You can also draft someone who bails on their first free agency opportunity as they are hitting their prime. On that same note, Kemba and Biyombo are a year away from their rookie contracts expiring - the constant tanking/coaching changes could drive them out if they don't see progress or feel content with their situation.

So much can happen. Taking a relatively sure thing (Jefferson is 28 and will probably produce 16+8 at minimum) makes some sense over playing for ping-pong balls and ending up with the #5 pick in a draft that maybe ends up only having 2 or 3 studs. Heck, maybe you win 35 games and get lucky in the lottery and get a top three pick anyway - get the best of both worlds.

[BlackOutBuzz]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SamAmicoFSO/status/353543350437158912[/tweet]

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[KembaWalker]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SamAmicoFSO/status/353543350437158912[/tweet]

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wat

[mrknowitall215]

FUN FACT: In 19 career games versus the Bobcats, Al Jefferson averaged 20.8 points on 55% shooting, 9.7 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, & 1.7 assist per 36 minutes

[NCHeels2008]

i like this deal a lot less knowing what Millsap's deal is

[Liver_Pooty]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SamAmicoFSO/status/353543350437158912[/tweet]

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Lol that's interesting.

[JT2006]

i like this deal a lot less knowing what Millsap's deal is

offense is more expensive than defense every time. that's just how it is

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

Height matters too.

[amcoolio]

Al Jefferson is the best offensive big in the game....he would still command max dollars at 28 if he had any sort of defense

[JT2006]

Height matters too.

yeah kinda but height is part of what makes his production possible in the first place. after like 6 million it's more production than size I'd guess. Wade wouldn't be worth anymore if he got taller but produced the same, for example

[HornetJail]

i like this deal a lot less knowing what Millsap's deal is

Millsap is a highly overrated player. Tweener who averages 14/7 and then is very, very average in just about everything else. He isn't even worth the contract the Hawks signed him to, but neither is any big that has signed a contract in the last three years.

[NCHeels2008]

i like this deal a lot less knowing what Millsap's deal is

Millsap is a highly overrated player. Tweener who averages 14/7 and then is very, very average in just about everything else. He isn't even worth the contract the Hawks signed him to, but neither is any big that has signed a contract in the last three years.

well now i know you specialize in understating someone's contribution

Millsap has been 17.5/9 (per 36) player with a 55TS%, he would've played more minutes if he wasn't in such a crowded frontcourt. I would prefer Millsap being undersized defensively in today's NBA to a lumbering big like Jefferson.

Jefferson gets you 19/10 (per 36) with a 52TS% because he gets to the line less. I think Jefferson is a slightly better player because he's a low post specialist and those are rare. But if it's Millsap for 19 over 2 years or Jefferson for 41 over 3 years give me Millsap everytime.

[JDuaneWayne]

i like this deal a lot less knowing what Millsap's deal is

Millsap is a highly overrated player. Tweener who averages 14/7 and then is very, very average in just about everything else. He isn't even worth the contract the Hawks signed him to, but neither is any big that has signed a contract in the last three years.

well now i know you specialize in understating someone's contribution

Millsap has been 17.5/9 (per 36) player with a 55TS%, he would've played more minutes if he wasn't in such a crowded frontcourt. I would prefer Millsap being undersized defensively in today's NBA to a lumbering big like Jefferson.

Jefferson gets you 19/10 (per 36) with a 52TS% because he gets to the line less. I think Jefferson is a slightly better player because he's a low post specialist and those are rare. But if it's Millsap for 19 over 2 years or Jefferson for 41 over 3 years give me Millsap everytime.

I get what you're saying here, I do. That being said in the league those few extra points/rebounds/assists net a lot of extra pay. Those few extra stats here and there often mean the difference between a win and a loss.

[Walt Cronkite]

This is a good contract and a good player, but I don't like it for the rebuild. Indifferent more than frustrated, afraid this throws us on the treadmill. Faith in Chotime waivering, but I still want to believe.

Edit: Misread it as a 4 year deal. That's a lot of scratch.

[fatlever]

Rick Bonnell ‏@rick_bonnell 1h

MKG says he's thrilled with the Bobcats adding Jefferson and Zeller.

something to consider for why we passed on noel and went after jefferson. perhaps kemba and MKG told management they have to get some real players around them or else... you cant expect hard working, driven, hyper-competitive guys like kemba and MKG to be OK with sucking for 3+ years just for a higher chance at a kid who just graduated high school. just a thought.

[HornetJail]

Rick Bonnell ‏@rick_bonnell 1h

MKG says he's thrilled with the Bobcats adding Jefferson and Zeller.

something to consider for why we passed on noel and went after jefferson. perhaps kemba and MKG told management they have to get some real players around them or else... you cant expect hard working, driven, hyper-competitive guys like kemba and MKG to be OK with sucking for 3+ years just for a higher chance at a kid who just graduated high school. just a thought.

That's probably only a fraction of why we brought Big Al in and passed on Noel. I think Cho still believes in Biz, just like I do, and probably sees the issue of having two players like them, who literally cannot play together and are both likely to always be liabilities on offense. Plus Noel's injury issues and bust potential were likely major turnoffs as well. At this point, we can't afford a bust, even in a draft like this. Pretty sure that is why we passed on Noel.