Safe To Call BG Trade a Flop?

[ComboGuardCity]

You speak of amnesty if you were going to come out of pocket yourselves.

It's the number one trait of arm-chair GM's. Make a ton of hypothetical decisions based on resources you don't own or know much about.

Then get upset with the reality of the situation.

Paying a player not to play for your team is backwards, then paying his replacement on top of that is even more backwards. Detroit comes out paying anywhere up to double or even more than what BG was signed for. That's an unknown variable, just like the draft pick's protection.

BG's cap replacement could have been worse, be injured, or both and everyone would call of Dumars' head again.

My apologies if moderately big words seem to offend you.

Gores saved $12 million by getting BG off the books. However, he also had to give up an asset. How much is that asset worth you ask?

Well, the average 1st rounder, based on WARP projections, has a net value of $60 million over the duration of their Rookie Contract. If we assume the Rookie's value increases at an increasing rate over the course of its Rookie scale and that Tom Gores, Billionaire, has a discount rate of 4% (Its definitely higher, but I'm showing you how stupid this deal was), then this is the result you get:

If he had amnestied Ben Gordon, the project's net present value is a conservative $39,841,112.51.

As a business man, especially as a billion dollar man, you don't look at how much money you can save today, but how much you can maximize profits tomorrow.

[RTM]

It was a flop when it happened.


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[E-Z]

You speak of amnesty if you were going to come out of pocket yourselves.

It's the number one trait of arm-chair GM's. Make a ton of hypothetical decisions based on resources you don't own or know much about.

Then get upset with the reality of the situation.

Paying a player not to play for your team is backwards, then paying his replacement on top of that is even more backwards. Detroit comes out paying anywhere up to double or even more than what BG was signed for. That's an unknown variable, just like the draft pick's protection.

BG's cap replacement could have been worse, be injured, or both and everyone would call of Dumars' head again.

My apologies if moderately big words seem to offend you.

Gores saved $12 million by getting BG off the books. However, he also had to give up an asset. How much is that asset worth you ask?

Well, the average 1st rounder, based on WARP projections, has a net value of $60 million over the duration of their Rookie Contract. If we assume the Rookie's value increases at an increasing rate over the course of its Rookie scale and that Tom Gores, Billionaire, has a discount rate of 4% (Its definitely higher, but I'm showing you how stupid this deal was), then this is the result you get:

If he had amnestied Ben Gordon, the project's net present value is a conservative $39,841,112.51.

As a business man, especially as a billion dollar man, you don't look at how much money you can save today, but how much you can save tomorrow.

Detroit has the pick protected. They gave up partial rights to it if anything. I believe it's fair for you to note that.

Once again, you hinge your points on hypothetical situations.

This trade was green-lit on the hopes of making the playoffs next season. How much money does an extended season bring in? Anywhere from hundreds of thousands to millions more if the team builds upon that each season.

Also, I believe your reasoning behind the value of a first rounder is flawed. It hinges on many variables that are unknown to everyone. That logic goes more so along the line of a gambler if anything. A poor one at that.

Regardless, the facts remain the same. Gores would still have to pay BG, and everyone else after him, without any assurance that Detroit would be more successful if he went this route.