Reading the Tea Leaves - MIL/ATL

theatlfan · Post #1 » by **theatlfan** » Tue Jul 9, 2013 9:20 am

This is pure speculation and I've probably been thinking on this too much, but I figured I'd throw it out there and see what y'all think... well, other than I thought about this too hard.

I'll cut to the chase: the deal between MIL and ATL is Jeff Teague for Giannis Antetokounmpo (hereafter referred to as GiAnt) + whatever we can get for one of their FAs in an SNT. The current holdup is trying to make the salaries match since MIL's hope would be that they could simply do an SNT with one of the players on their former roster, but we haven't found the one that we like yet.

The rationale:
Larry Drew runs a fairly complex O that is an offshoot of the Princeton motion O, so bringing in some of "his guys" should only help with the transition of the rest of the team, especially if that guy is the PG. Neither Ellis nor Jennings had any college and looking at their unrepentant chucker stats, I could see questioning if either could learn the O well enough and fast enough for Drew to implement his entire O within the off-season so he could grow tweak it in season. For a team that is looking to climb the playoff ladder, winning a few more games early in the schedule could pay some dividends come playoff time. From the HC to the FO, they identified Teague as someone they wanted early and we're willing to pull some strings to get it done.

On draft night, MIL's drafting of GiAnt was on of the big head-scratchers of the mid-1st round. A team that was looking to remain in playoff contention was drafting a 2-3 year project raised more than a few eyebrows. Why did this happen? If you remember, Drew also had a very odd ending as HC for us. He stuck around well into June under contract even though we were openly interviewing HC candidates and he was openly interview for other HC positions. Not to say we let him into the inner circle at this time, but he was around and probably could figure out some of the prospects we liked. With this knowledge, he could validate the fairly open rumor that we were the ones who promised GiAnt, so MIL pulled the trigger on drafting GiAnt with the thought of moving him to us within a few weeks.

At some point, MIL contacts us with the trade proposal and suggest to us to look into their FA since they're not expecting to keep any of them: Ellis and Jennings could be our replacement at PG, but Dalembert, Redick, and Dunleavy would do. We're receptive and both side are willing to wait on the deal since we both have cap room and having an RFA cap hold on the books is more beneficial under the current CBA. We decide to look into Jennings first and brought him to Atlanta last week for an interview, and apparently we weren't impressed (or else we wouldn't have opened up the negotiations with Ellis). Both Dunleavy and Redick jumped at championship teams immediately with MIL receiving scant considerations for their leaving which shrank our potential pool (quite simply: we weren't willing to do Teague for GiAnt and 2 2nds). We finally decide that Ellis would do and start negotiations with him before SAC steps in and offers more $$ and a chance to return out West where he apparently still has his home from his time with GSW. Also, our chase of Andrew Bynum is holding things up further since we're not sure about our cap situation or if we'll need another big.

At this point, we're still trying to find the fit. I think our Plan A is to see if a 3rd team starts sniffing around Jennings in which case we open up a 3 team 2x SNT in which MIL gets Teague, Team 3 gets Jennings, we get GiAnt and whatever concessions Team 3 is willing to give for Jennings. Plan B is talking directly with SAC, but there is precious little on that roster that is intriguing and the Hayes / Fredette offer they were trying to get CLE to swallow looks to be an obvious pass for us. Plan C would probably be to either just take Jennings or turn our attention to Dalembert and overpay him for a year.

IF this is all the case, I figure I'd put on my toy GM hat and throw out the offers for the 1st 2 plans (the 3rd is self evident):
Plan A: * assumes we miss out on Bynum
TOR trades Rudy Gay for Jennings / MIL trades Jennings and GiAnt for Teague and Zaza / ATL trades Teague and Zaza for Gay and GiAnt
TOR dumps Gay for a young PG to kick start Ujiri's rebuilding; we get Gay to bridge the gap until GiAnt is ready.
Other possible teams: DET and ORL

Plan B:
SAC trades Jason Thompson and Jimmer Fredette for Monta Ellis / MIL trades Ellis and GiAnt for Teague / ATL trades Teague for Thompson, Fredette, and GiAnt
SAC gulps and parts with Thompson instead of Hayes, but they land their man. We take Thompson as a swing big who can move Horford to PF part time; Fredette is nothing more than an expiring.

jagstang76 · Post #2 » by **jagstang76** » Tue Jul 9, 2013 11:01 am

Dude, that was some deep thinking! I'm surprised I figured out what you were saying before having any coffee this morning.

Honestly, I would not be surprised if your theory is close. It reasons out a lot of what has happened of late. I would rather see us get 1 yr of Rudy Gay, and see that being more feasible a deal than the SAC option. My question is can we handle Gay's $17 mil on the cap? We still need another big. Also, spending that much on 1 player doesn't help us considering the roster holds that would have to be added in. We would need to dump someone to TOR to probably make it work.

The SAC deal seems a bit more iffy. I don't see MIL sending off Ellis and their 1st pick this yr for just Teague. They would need more compensation.

D21 · Post #3 » by **D21** » Tue Jul 9, 2013 12:04 pm

You could be right, without a doubt. There are other possibilities, but it makes sense.

azuresou1 · Post #4 » by **azuresou1** » Tue Jul 9, 2013 3:33 pm

This seems like a solid hypothesis. Not sure about the specific deals since the value seems a little off, but I absolutely buy the premise of a 3-team trade that lands us Giannis and puts Jennings on another team.

Here's my trade proposal for what it's worth:

Atlanta sends Teague, 2nd/receives Jameer, Giannis, Moe Harkless, protected 1st
Milwaukee sends Jennings, Giannis/receives Teague
Orlando send Jameer, Moe Harkless, protected 1st/receives Jennings, 2nd

We get young talent for a full rebuild, with a bunch of raw guys who will need a few years to develop. Milwaukee gets their upgrade at PG to win now. Orlando gets a young PG to develop with their entire team.

theatlfan · Post #5 » by **theatlfan** » Tue Jul 9, 2013 4:07 pm

jagstang76 wrote:The SAC deal seems a bit more iffy. I don't see MIL sending off Ellis and their 1st pick this yr for just Teague. They would need more compensation.

One thing to remember: as far as MIL cares, Ellis is already gone. They've used their cap room to the point where they'd have to renounce him when their signings happen anyway. If we can agree with SAC to land whatever is agreeable to us to pry off Teague, then they don't care.

azuresou1 wrote:Here's my trade proposal for what it's worth:

Atlanta sends Teague, 2nd/receives Jameer, Giannis, Moe Harkless, protected 1st
Milwaukee sends Jennings, Giannis/receives Teague
Orlando send Jameer, Moe Harkless, protected 1st/receives Jennings, 2nd

We get young talent for a full rebuild, with a bunch of raw guys who will need a few years to develop. Milwaukee gets their upgrade at PG to win now. Orlando gets a young PG to develop with their entire team.

Can't see ORL coming off a protected 1st and Harkless for Jennings though. Not even sure they'd part with even one of the 2 - definitely not both. When I was looking at ORL though, either removing the picks in this deal or landing Afflalo is where I arrived. I think they have an inflated sense of Afflalo's value because of the Bledsoe rumors though so that's why I skipped them.

parson · Post #6 » by **parson** » Tue Jul 9, 2013 4:32 pm

So, the reality is, we see Ferry doing something that we have no earthly idea as to why he's doing this, and we need to justify his actions?

tomaHAWKslam · Post #7 » by **tomaHAWKslam** » Tue Jul 9, 2013 4:48 pm

parson wrote:So, the reality is, we see Ferry doing something that we have no earthly idea as to why he's doing this, and we need to justify his actions?

Pretty much.

If someone can make Milsap make sense to me, I'd greatly appreciate it.

MrPerfect1 · Post #8 » by **MrPerfect1** » Tue Jul 9, 2013 4:50 pm

I think Giannis is almost untouchable for MIL. Sanders/Henson/Giannis/2014 #1 are generally considered to be their 4 untouchable pieces.

Why wouldn't MIL just offer Teague like $12 Mil/Year and see if ATL is willing to match that. Makes more sense to overpay for Teague or force ATL to and then keep Jennings over trading their 1st Round pick

theatlfan · Post #9 » by **theatlfan** » Tue Jul 9, 2013 5:38 pm

MrPerfect1 wrote:I think Giannis is almost untouchable for MIL. Sanders/Henson/Giannis/2014 #1 are generally considered to be their 4 untouchable pieces.

Why wouldn't MIL just offer Teague like $12 Mil/Year and see if ATL is willing to match that. Makes more sense to overpay for Teague or force ATL to and then keep Jennings over trading their 1st Round pick

Maybe I'm underrating Giannis' value to MIL, but if you said on draft night that MIL can use their pick a ready made PG who already knows Drew's system, would they have taken it? That's the question from MIL's end.

As of recent reports, I think that MIL is getting antsy... and possibly us as well. If this goes down, then today is a pivotal day. The moves made so far don't have to become official tomorrow, but both teams want it to.

parson · Post #10 » by **parson** » Tue Jul 9, 2013 5:45 pm

MrPerfect1 wrote:Why wouldn't MIL just offer Teague like $12 Mil/Year and see if ATL is willing to match that. Makes more sense to overpay for Teague or force ATL to and then keep Jennings over trading their 1st Round pick

Y'all would never pay Jeff Teague $12 million. We would be thrilled to pay him the QO ($4.5 million) and happy to pay $6 million. He, of course, wants to make us a little more uncomfortable.

MartyConlonOnTheRun · Post #11 » by **MartyConlonOnTheRun** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:00 am

parson wrote:
MrPerfect1 wrote:Why wouldn't MIL just offer Teague like $12 Mil/Year and see if ATL is willing to match that. Makes more sense to overpay for Teague or force ATL to and then keep Jennings over trading their 1st Round pick

Y'all would never pay Jeff Teague $12 million. We would be thrilled to pay him the QO ($4.5 million) and happy to pay $6 million. He, of course, wants to make us a little more uncomfortable.

Rumor has it that we are well into 8 figures with Jennings. Why not give the same contract to Teague if it will easily get up and you guys still think he is a big enough value for the Bucks to give up on G-Bo?

As much as we hate Jennings, I don't think you trade G-Bo to get him. That would be as idiotic as trading Bogut to get rid of S. Jackson.

I think in order of preference for Bucks fans its
G-Bo+Teague>>>>>G-Bo.>G-Bo+Jennings>>Teague>>>>>>Jennings
I think even the Bucks are hesitant to trade young talent after the Tobes disaster.