Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 3

bealwithit · Post #201 » by **bealwithit** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:46 am

dangermouse wrote:What do you guys think will become of LAL?

They were far from contention with Dwight, and now he is gone. Kobes is going to be out at the start of the season. For a while its just going to be Pau and Nash. Those two might have been a good pairing a few years ago and could probably carry a team, but they aren't going to be able to win games by themselves anymore. And even when Kobe returns, that "big 3" is just not enough.

They've amnestied MWP but that still doesnt really help them sign anyone.

I'm guessing they are or will be shopping Nash for depth. I can't see what else they could do other than tank, which would really piss of Kobes.

They won't even attempt to rebuild until Kobe retires. They'll try to contend and float around as a low seed until Kobe gets frustrated and decides it is for the best to just be done.

Post #202 » by **montestewart** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:47 am

dangermouse wrote:What do you guys think will become of LAL?

They were far from contention with Dwight, and now he is gone. Kobes is going to be out at the start of the season. For a while its just going to be Pau and Nash. Those two might have been a good pairing a few years ago and could probably carry a team, but they aren't going to be able to win games by themselves anymore. And even when Kobe returns, that "big 3" is just not enough.

They've amnestied MWP but that still doesnt really help them sign anyone.

I'm guessing they are or will be shopping Nash for depth. I can't see what else they could do other than tank, which would really piss of Kobes.

I think they should have accelerated it and amnestied Kobe, but who knows what reverberations that move would have? Maybe their TV contract has a huge penalty if that happens. They don't have much, but to a contender that's a PG or a big away, Gasol or Nash might be worth 2014 pick and prospect.

With Kobe amnestied, they could have taken on a crappy contract or two in return for more picks (get a 2015 1st to replace the one they traded, although if they're still really bad, they'll get to keep it) or prospects. Build next year's team around MWP, Blake, Hill, and whatever stiffs and prospects came back in the Gasol and Nash trades. Man, they would suck.

Next year, have a top pick (maybe Wiggins) and a couple of laters 1st and/or 2nds in supposedly a great draft. With that infusion of young talent, by 2015/2016, they might be once more a place that a top FA might go to win a championship.

PS: If they had amnestied Kobe, where do you think he would have ended up playing?

rockymac52 · Post #203 » by **rockymac52** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:48 am

Or rather they're just going to try and fight for the 8th seed this season, and they might actually get it, but it's going to be a battle, even if Kobe returns soon. But then they have an insane amount of cap space next summer, and they will undoubtedly make a big run on several elite free agents. I don't see LeBron going to the Lakers, even if he opts out, but I do think Melo is a very realistic possibility. They'll be back before you know it.

bealwithit · Post #204 » by **bealwithit** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 6:04 am

montestewart wrote:
dangermouse wrote:
PS: If they had amnestied Kobe, where do you think he would have ended up playing?

lol, that's fun. Maybe the Bulls or Pacers?

rockymac52 · Post #205 » by **rockymac52** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 6:11 am

If Kobe was amnestied he would have gone to a team with enough cap space to claim him on waivers. It'd be very interesting since I believe it's blind bidding, so teams would be forced to actually bid top dollar on an amnestied player for once. I bet the Cavs would come with an aggressive offer, as would the Mavericks.

dangermouse · Post #206 » by **dangermouse** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 8:05 am

The first team that popped into my head was the Mavs.

But yeah, there was no way they were going to amnesty Kobe. You don't amnesty a guy like Kobe. Season ticket holders would lynch you in the streets.

verbal8 · Post #207 » by **verbal8** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 11:03 am

montestewart wrote:PS: If they had amnestied Kobe, where do you think he would have ended up playing?

I think Dallas or Atlanta would have claimed him. I wonder if he would have retired if he had been amnestied.

Also I agree the Cavs would have put a bid in. Sacramento would have an outside chance. I think every team with cap space would have put a bid in, just to sell seats if nothing else.

Post #208 » by **Ruzious** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 11:56 am

dangermouse wrote:The first team that popped into my head was the Mavs.

But yeah, there was no way they were going to amnesty Kobe. You don't amnesty a guy like Kobe. Season ticket holders would lynch you in the streets.

Yeah, fiscally - it'd make sense to amnesty him, but he's built up quite a legacy, and there's really no other reason to watch the Lakers this season. Their starting lineup is bad, and their depth is horrible. If they try to trade him at midseason, it'd be awfully awfully hard since he's making close to... gulp... 30 million. The question for LAL is - Is he going to retire? And would he come back for cheap to give them a chance to sign some players?

queridiculo · Post #209 » by **queridiculo** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 12:53 pm

About the Lakers, would anybody really surprised if they win the lottery...

Nivek · Post #210 » by **Nivek** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 1:17 pm

nuposse04 wrote:
Nivek wrote:
nuposse04 wrote:i think we are probably over-estimating Ariza's value now if Luc fetches two future 2nds. I thnk Ariza is a bit more valuable in that he expires and isn't a terrible offensive liability but we're gonna have to throwin in a '15 of '14 protected pick to net anything of value I think.

Ariza was a lot better last season than Mbah a Moute. If Milwaukee can get a couple 2nd rounders for Mbah a Moute than Ariza ought to be worth at least a first rounder or a good player. Looking at the numbers, Ariza was a lot more efficient -- shot better from everywhere (.501 efg to .418); offensive rating for Mbah a Moute was 90 to Ariza's 103 (league average was 105.8).

Ariza shot significantly more 3s (pace adjusted, per 40 minutes), which is a good thing because of his solid percentage. Rebounding was about the same, as were turnovers and blocks, but Ariza had more assists (almost twice as many per minute) and steals and fouled a bit less.

Mbah a Moute rated as an average defender in my stuff -- Ariza was one of the better SF defenders in the league.

Overall, Mbah a Moute had a PPA of 55 last season (average is 100; higher is better; replacement level is 45); Ariza's PPA was 108.

I was under the impression Luc was an all NBA caliber defender (well if you listen to Bucks fans, probably where I went astray). As you noted though, Ariza is pretty much average offensively, I still don't think his offensive abilities warrants much more. I do think his expiring should increase value.

Hmm, at least for last season, the defense part of PPA would suggest that claims that Mbah a Moute is an All-Defense caliber defender are exaggerated -- at least for this past season. I haven't looked at his defense measures in previous seasons, but it is possible that he was a terrific defender who wasn't as good this past season. He was hurt some, which is probably why this was the worst season of his career overall. The point, though is that players often get reputations that persist long past on-court performance. Gary Payton was one of the best defenders who ever lived for a few seasons, but was still making All-Defense teams until he was 33. Kobe has been All-Defense annually for years now even though he routinely takes defensive possessions off to rest for offense.

Looking at Mbah a Moute's history, I think he's probably a nice value pickup -- especially for the purchase price of a couple second round picks. He's been a solid player for several years and had a bad year because of injury. Given his age and previous production, he's likely to bounce back with another about average season.

BTW how do you rate individual perimeter defenders? Do you have another metric embedded into PPA that takes that into account?

PPA has always included a defensive component. It's a combination of on-court team data and individual measures. I've had it kinda buried in the spreadsheet -- part of the calculation, but not broken out. Recently, I broke it out for the 2012-13 season. I'll break it out for other seasons too during the summer.

Post #211 » by **Rafael122** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 1:25 pm

Lakers need to tank, get a high lottery pick. There's already grumblings that Melo could be wanting to get out of New York and go to LA.

I think before they do anything with Pau and Kobe, they should try and get Melo and Bosh. Draft...Wiggins, re-sign Pau and Kobe at a discounted rate...it's a start. They just need to bite the bullet this year and tank.

pancakes3 · Post #212 » by **pancakes3** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 1:26 pm

queridiculo wrote:About the Lakers, would anybody really surprised if they win the lottery...

It'd be their first lotto win ever.

verbal8 · Post #213 » by **verbal8** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 1:46 pm

pancakes3 wrote:
queridiculo wrote:About the Lakers, would anybody really surprised if they win the lottery...

It'd be their first lotto win ever.

How many times have they been in the lotto? You must play to win lol

Dat2U · Post #214 » by **Dat2U** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:06 pm

Kirilenko may be the guy that fell through the cracks. Minny seems to have little interest in a S&T. He may have to either take an MLE deal or go back overseas. I'm sure he's regretting opting out at this stage.

I'd love to get him but I don't see anyway possible.

Post #215 » by **Ruzious** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:17 pm

AK was talking with the Spurs, but it wouldn't surprise me if he went back to Russia - where he's likely more appreciated.

Post #216 » by **LyricalRico** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:32 pm

Could do a 3-way where we send Ariza+filler to a team that still has cap space, we get Kirilenko, and Minny gets some kind of value (even if just a few 2nds).

Could also work with Okafor maybe going to a team like ATL or DAL as stop-gap frontcourt depth. (Although I'd like to keep Okafor because of the impact he's had on Wall.)

dckingsfan · Post #217 » by **dckingsfan** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:34 pm

Timberwolves

Rubio, Barea, Ridnour, Shved
Kevin Martin, Shabazz Muhammad
Chase Budinger
Kevin Love, Dante Cunningham, Derrick Williams
Gorgui Dieng

And still trying to sign Pekovic... sadly, they don't need PFs or we could trade for Barea or Ridnour. Then again, it may mean that Williams is moved to SF.

Post #218 » by **LyricalRico** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:40 pm

^ Apparently they are also trying to reunite with Corey Brewer, presumably to backup Budinger.

Jerry Zgoda: Tomorrow could be big day for Wolves to swing s-t or get outbid for C Brewer, who wants to come back. Hearing he's aiming for 4 yrs, $19M Twitter @JerryZgoda

Post #219 » by **Rafael122** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 3:09 pm

$19 mil for Brewer? He can't shoot, what the hell are you paying for?

FAH1223 · Post #220 » by **FAH1223** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 3:14 pm

Laker fans are thinking they can bring their championship roster of 2009 back. Thinking they can get Ariza from us for Jordan Hill or Meeks or Blake... LOL