Marvin Martian wrote:hillbilly hare wrote:basketball royalty wrote:You know what you tankers have to do so your claims actually have some weight is to list all the guys coming out that are surefire superstars. Give us some sort of idea why you all think there are 7-8 superstars coming out in 2014.
We all know Wiggins and believe in him. Maybe Parker and Smart but how good are those guys? Who else is there? Why are you guys creaming your pants and bother us about your pants creamery?
Or you can just say we are a treadmill, enjoy 9th blah blah blah.
It's a good point. You need superstars if you want to seriously contend. And by superstars, I'd say guys who can make the All-NBA and/or All-D teams, i.e.
approximately the top 20-25 guys in the league. I would say that every draft has one or multiple potential superstars. Though they are not always picked in the top lotto. I admit that I'm not that good of a judge of young prospects' potential so I will only go on what people say about Wiggins, etc.
The other way to look at things is to ask: given that you need at least one superstar to contend, how many guys on our team are superstars or potential superstars? None, obviously. At least for the next 2-3 years, as we hope that Jonas might be that guy some time in the future. But Gay and Demar and Lowry are clearly NOT those guys. And seeing as we know that, we have to think how we might use them to acquire the assets needed to acquire superstar talent. See: James Harden last year. That specific case is probably a once every 5 years kind of deal, but it's the right idea. What assets can we get for our guys? I hope it's primarily draft picks and young prospects and expirings. Cap space is a valuable asset too. If we had been able to take back Perkins from OKC, I think they would've loved to dump him together with Harden, for Jonas and relatively little more, i.e. compared to Houston. The Rockets traded Lamb, who they picked 12th. Hardly top of the lotto stuff. The other picks they traded to OKC were our pick projected around 10th (was 12th) and a Dallas top 20 protected pick. Those are not amazing assets in the least. But they netted a superstar. The key clearly was having multiple first round picks, even if they aren't high lotto ones.
A top 20-25 guy can make you team a contender? I would say a top 5 guy can make you a contender. Top 20-25 guys are like Chris Bosh and LMA i.e. players who will not take your team anywhere.
Titles are won by once in a generation talents and to suggest that there are 5 of those in the 2014 draft is highly egregious to say the least.
Whatever.
I didn't say there would be 5 "once in a generation talents" in the 14 draft, as that would be a bit of a non sequitur, wouldn't it?
I would say that the All-NBA teams are a pretty good start to find the guys that are game changers, who I'd more or less call superstars, which is a relative term to the time a guy plays in. An All-NBA guy today might not be one in some other era.
But anyway. This year's All-NBA teams had Lebron, KD, Duncan, Kobe, CP3, then Melo, Griffin, Marc Gasol, Tony Parker and Westbrook; then Dwight, Dwade, Harden and Paul George. Yes, I'd call those guys superstars, especially the more unsung guys like George and Gasol who were on BOTH the All-NBA and All-D teams. But anyway, if there were a Paul George in the 14 draft, or a Marc Gasol, then hell yeah, he'd be worth tanking for.
N.B. Neither Bosh nor Aldridge made either an All-NBA team or an All-D team, so no, they are not good examples of what I was talking about.