My Concerns and predictions for next season

[E-Z]

There are a few indicators for most teams that plays winning basketball. Two very important ones; rebounding and turnovers. I.E. 10 of the top 16 teams have a defensive rebound percentage higher than the league average. Three more playoff teams have a lower turnover percentage than average. The Clippers, Celtics, and Thunder are the only playoff teams that were below league average in both defensive rebounding and turnovers. Excluding the Thunder, each were quick first round exits.

So, what allowed BOS, LAC, and OKC to gain entry into the post-season? Each team scored the ball with great efficiency, finishing above average in eFG% (Miami was the best shooting team in NBA history in this regard). The Thunder and Clippers are ranked third and fourth. Boston finished 12th. So, the rules to gaining access to the post-season are set. Teams protect the ball and grab rebounds, or feature a high octane offense to compensate. That said, how will the 2014 Detroit Pistons fare?

Let's take a look at where Detroit finished last season.

24th in defensive rebounding percentage (worse than Miami)

I went into detail as to how perimeter defense co-relates to defensive rebounding. Detroit's allowance of dribble penetration put the Pistons in horrible position to defend spot up shooters, and most importantly, grabbing defensive rebounds. The Pistons had the 23rd worst defensive rating.

28th in turnover percentage (only OKC and Houston were worse, given how fast they play in comparison) Detroit was virtually the most turnover prone team in the league.

Detroit also ranks 19th in eFG% (better than IND, MIL, MEM, & CHI)

Who were the largest culprits for Detroit?

Brandon Knight and Greg Monroe had marginal assist percentages over their turnover rate. A 4% difference for Knight and a 2% difference for Monroe. This is in contrast to Bynum's (and Calderon's) 17%.

Defensively, Detroit was great in isolation. However, few teams would iso against them. There was hardly any need to. Why?

According to Synergy Sports, Detroit ranked way below average in the following:

Pick and Roll: 29th
Post ups: 28th
Hand-offs: 24th
Cuts: 28th
Offensive Rebounds: 29th

In other words, Detroit's guards and wings were beat in every situation. Lost in screens, being too slow, or a combination of both.

In regards to post defense, Monroe was getting cooked, ranking 211th. However, this may be the nature of him being unwilling to foul out of games? Charlie Villanueva was simply atrocious in the post, allowing 1.06 points per possession on 52% shooting. Drummond and Maxiell were the Pistons only post defenders (the former being significantly better than the latter).

So, did Dumars address the glaring holes in Detroit's offense and defense? Maybe. Josh Smith is a jack of all trades on defense. He's a top tier post and isolation defender. He'll be Detroit's best option against anyone in almost any situation. Outside of him, Dumars is taking a huge leap of faith with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Brandon Knight. Both have the potential to propel Detroit into elite territory defensively. However, their inexperience may be the difference between the 6th seed and 9th place in the Eastern Conference.

If none of Detroit's players make substantial improvements to their game offensively, expect a TON of turnovers. Dumars further compounded this problem with Smith's signing. Knight, Monroe, and Smith are turnover machines. I don't expect a whole lot to change next season because the court is shrinking with Smith's addition and Drummond's promotion to the starting lineup. Detroit would have two three point threats in Knight and KCP, with no real mid-range threat from the front court. Opposing defenses will roam and collapse on post players and none of Detroit's starters have proven the capability to make smart and quick decisions.

Overall, Detroit is shaping up to be a team comparable to Indiana, Memphis, or Atlanta of last season. A top-heavy defense almost washes out any sort of offense the team produces. It worked in Detroit's 2004 championship run. The Pistons were below average shooters, and ball protectors, but their defense was high velocity. Hopefully the back-court has a high ceiling because the group of talent Dumars assembled has the potential to be one of the best teams in the league; on paper to say the least.

Next season, they're probably an 8th seed due to the ups and downs of all the youth on the team. From there, the sky is the limit if they keep improving.

[Montanabadboy33]

Great post, rebounding and turnovers have always been big for me, if you can maximize your possessions and minimize the other guy's, it certainly improves your chances of winning. I am also concerned about our turnovers this season, hopefully Billups can be a steadying influence and help with that.

[E-Z]

Great post, rebounding and turnovers have always been big for me, if you can maximize your possessions and minimize the other guy's, it certainly improves your chances of winning. I am also concerned about our turnovers this season, hopefully Billups can be a steadying influence and help with that.

I'm with you on everything. I doubt Billups can provide a whole lot at his age. He was a two way player in his prime.

Speaking of two way players, this is where my frustrations with the organization come into play. Dumars has spent big money on static players thus far. Ben Gordon, Charlie V, and now Josh Smith. The league's best teams all have two-way players.

San Antonio is the best example. Four of their starting five can defend and score without shrinking the floor. Miami had LeBron, Battier (did he retire?), Wade, and Bosh. According to Synergy, the Spurs had the league's second best defense and offense. Miami had the best offense by a longshot complimented by the 5th best defense. However, my disappointments are mild at best.

I applaud Dumars for a 3 quarters for a dollar trade attempt with Toronto. Detroit would have been able to snag a two way player in Rudy Gay. KCP and Knight both have the height, athleticism, and skill set to be similar in that regard. I just hope it's sooner than later for the team.

[dmize]

Speaking of two way players, this is where my frustrations with the organization come into play. Dumars has spent big money on static players thus far. Ben Gordon, Charlie V, and now Josh Smith. The league's best teams all have two-way players.

Josh Smith is a two-way player...

[E-Z]

Speaking of two way players, this is where my frustrations with the organization come into play. Dumars has spent big money on static players thus far. Ben Gordon, Charlie V, and now Josh Smith. The league's best teams all have two-way players.

Josh Smith is a two-way player...

I envision a two way player having the tools to score no matter what. I'm not so sure Smith is that guy.

His offensive production depends on who he's playing alongside. He's not bad, but he isn't great enough for me to say he's two-way.

[Dre Drummond]

I did see a tweet that Josh Smith in the only player in NBA history to have career averages of 15 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, and 1 steal or more per game.

I think that does say a lot about what he's done in his career. He has been a borderline all-star several years and he has had several playoff series wins and some really close tough losses to good teams as well. I think in the right situation with the right people around him here he could really take another step forward and be and all-star and an all-defensive team player.

[E-Z]

I did see a tweet that Josh Smith in the only player in NBA history to have career averages of 15 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, and 1 steal or more per game.

I think that does say a lot about what he's done in his career. He has been a borderline all-star several years and he has had several playoff series wins and some really close tough losses to good teams as well. I think in the right situation with the right people around him here he could really take another step forward and be and all-star and an all-defensive team player.

Rare production indeed, but we all know he can't shoot. I also would hope that you're right in regards of him being in the right situation. I'd love to be proven wrong about him being somewhat one dimensional.

[ImHeisenberg]

Speaking of two way players, this is where my frustrations with the organization come into play. Dumars has spent big money on static players thus far. Ben Gordon, Charlie V, and now Josh Smith. The league's best teams all have two-way players.

Josh Smith is a two-way player...

Bingo! Smith is a B+ player on both ends. Saying a guy who averaged 17.5 points, with 2 blocks and a steal isn't a 2-way player is just plain stupid.

[ImHeisenberg]

Speaking of two way players, this is where my frustrations with the organization come into play. Dumars has spent big money on static players thus far. Ben Gordon, Charlie V, and now Josh Smith. The league's best teams all have two-way players.

Josh Smith is a two-way player...

I envision a two way player having the tools to score no matter what. I'm not so sure Smith is that guy.

His offensive production depends on who he's playing alongside. He's not bad, but he isn't great enough for me to say he's two-way.

You can literally say that about anyone. LeBron needs players around him to be effective with the ball, otherwise it's Cleveland all over again.

[E-Z]

Speaking of two way players, this is where my frustrations with the organization come into play. Dumars has spent big money on static players thus far. Ben Gordon, Charlie V, and now Josh Smith. The league's best teams all have two-way players.

Josh Smith is a two-way player...

Bingo! Smith is a B+ player on both ends. Saying a guy who averaged 17.5 points, with 2 blocks and a steal isn't a 2-way player is just plain stupid.

Sure, Smith averaged 17.5 points a game last season. Do you believe he's a good scorer?

I'm curious.

Because advanced statistics and maybe the basic eye-test will tell you he cannot create his own shots.

He can't shoot according to his shot locations via Hoopdata.
He's not an efficient shot creator in the post or isolation via Synergy Sports.
His offensive rating is in the double digits via Basketball-Reference.

As I stated earlier, his offense is largely dependent on who surrounds him. Who's setting him up. His most efficient methods of scoring are from basket cuts or in transition.

Statistics require context.

[E-Z]

Josh Smith is a two-way player...

I envision a two way player having the tools to score no matter what. I'm not so sure Smith is that guy.

His offensive production depends on who he's playing alongside. He's not bad, but he isn't great enough for me to say he's two-way.

You can literally say that about anyone. LeBron needs players around him to be effective with the ball, otherwise it's Cleveland all over again.

LeBron James can score the basketball no matter who surrounds him. The same statement can't be made so easily about Josh Smith.

[ChipButty]

Josh Smith is a two-way player...

Bingo! Smith is a B+ player on both ends. Saying a guy who averaged 17.5 points, with 2 blocks and a steal isn't a 2-way player is just plain stupid.

Sure, Smith averaged 17.5 points a game last season. Do you believe he's a good scorer?

I'm curious.

Because advanced statistics and maybe the basic eye-test will tell you he cannot create his own shots.

He can't shoot according to his shot locations via Hoopdata.
He's not an efficient shot creator in the post or isolation via Synergy Sports.
His offensive rating is in the double digits via Basketball-Reference.

As I stated earlier, his offense is largely dependent on who surrounds him. Who's setting him up. His most efficient methods of scoring are from basket cuts or in transition.

Statistics require context.

I don't get your point about Smith's scoring being dependent on who surrounds him. He's basically put up the same stats for the last 6 years solid. Horford was out most of last season and the Hawks didn't miss a beat. He's played with different PG's and for different coaches. He's about as consistent as it gets. Despite not being a great shooter, he's a good scorer.

[E-Z]

Bingo! Smith is a B+ player on both ends. Saying a guy who averaged 17.5 points, with 2 blocks and a steal isn't a 2-way player is just plain stupid.

Sure, Smith averaged 17.5 points a game last season. Do you believe he's a good scorer?

I'm curious.

Because advanced statistics and maybe the basic eye-test will tell you he cannot create his own shots.

He can't shoot according to his shot locations via Hoopdata.
He's not an efficient shot creator in the post or isolation via Synergy Sports.
His offensive rating is in the double digits via Basketball-Reference.

As I stated earlier, his offense is largely dependent on who surrounds him. Who's setting him up. His most efficient methods of scoring are from basket cuts or in transition.

Statistics require context.

I don't get your point about Smith's scoring being dependent on who surrounds him. He's basically put up the same stats for the last 6 years solid. Horford was out most of last season and the Hawks didn't miss a beat. He's played with different PG's and for different coaches. He's about as consistent as it gets. Despite not being a great shooter, he's a good scorer.

Most decent or average players can score 17.5 points on 15.9 shots a game. That's hardly efficient.

His only effecient methods of scoring rely on basket cuts (passes from teammates after the defense collapses), or in transition (from his own defense or from an outlet pass). He's not the initiator of his best methods of scoring unlike most good scorers in the NBA.

[OneBadMutha]

Lebron is a Super-duper star. Most NBA players have holes in their games. Josh Smiths is shooting. He does everything else well to great. He's a top 5 overall defender when you factor his versatility. He scores around the basket well, can get to the rim, plays great in transition, is good off of motion, and can facilitate. He's a two way player.

[Natopher]

Smith might not be the most efficient scorer, but he can still score a good number of points. And the idea that he can't shoot well enough at SF for our team to score is wrong. When you look at the Piston teams back in the 2000s, Tayshaun never made more than 1 3 point attempt a game. Now, Prince had a really good mid-range shot, and according to basketball reference his % on those shots was always upper 30s. Smith has had several years shooting the ball from mid-range in the upper 30%. The year before last Smith shot 156/430 from 16ft to 3 point range for 36%. Year before that he shot 134/348 for 38.5%. Last year was 33% on 99/301. So if Smith has about the mid-range game as Prince did, and Prince wasn't a spacing problem, the Smith won't be either. And his defense is MUCH better than Princes was, as is his shot blocking (clearly).

On most nights, unless he's guarding LeBron, Durant, or Melo chances are good he's going to outscore the players he's guarding by a good amount. He adds defense to our team, great shot blocking, the kind of no nonsense attitude our players haven't had in a long time. I don't care if he's not the best fit for the team. Talent is always an asset you can't refuse, and no one can argue that he's not a talent. Even if we have to move players for him to be at his best that's fine. When you have an ability to add a top tier talent you don't say no because he might not fit with the talent you have. You add him, see how he fits, and then evaluate who to move. And based on his mid-range game vs Princes I have no reason to believe he can't fit at SF.

[E-Z]

Lebron is a Super-duper star. Most NBA players have holes in their games. Josh Smiths is shooting. He does everything else well to great. He's a top 5 overall defender when you factor his versatility. He scores around the basket well, can get to the rim, plays great in transition, is good off of motion, and can facilitate. He's a two way player.

He can't get to the rim in isolation. Defenders are sagging off of him, cutting off lanes for penetration. He ends up taking either a spinning hook or a jump shot 9 times out of 10.

Yes, he scores around the basket well, but not in the same sense as a true post player. Greg Monroe can score as many points as Smith per 36 with fewer shot attempts. This was true of Rodney Stuckey 2 seasons ago.

Shot creation and shooting are co-related. Jump shooting forces defenders to play tighter, allowing dribble penetration. If Smith is a two way player with this hole, then he's one of the worst if not the worst offensively.

[DetroitPistons]

The term "two-way player" is mostly understood to mean someone who can score and defend. Smith averaged nearly 18ppg last year. He can score and defend. He is easily a two-way player. Just because someone isn't a perfectly well rounded offensive player doesn't mean they aren't a two-way player.

[E-Z]

The term "two-way player" is mostly understood to mean someone who can score and defend. Smith averaged nearly 18ppg last year. He can score and defend. He is easily a two-way player. Just because someone isn't a perfectly well rounded offensive player doesn't mean they aren't a two-way player.

Anyone can score the basketball if given enough shots. You can broaden or narrow the definitions of a two-way player however you like. Some facts will always remain. Josh Smith was terrible offensively last season. It's terrible when a player's offensive rating is double digits. That's Ben Wallace territory. Historically, Smith is just not good on that side of the ball.

I'd consider a two way player that's at least good on both sides of the ball. Something Smith is not.

[Natopher]

Smith might not be the most efficient scorer, but he can still score a good number of points. And the idea that he can't shoot well enough at SF for our team to score is wrong. When you look at the Piston teams back in the 2000s, Tayshaun never made more than 1 3 point attempt a game. Now, Prince had a really good mid-range shot, and according to basketball reference his % on those shots was always upper 30s. Smith has had several years shooting the ball from mid-range in the upper 30%. The year before last Smith shot 156/430 from 16ft to 3 point range for 36%. Year before that he shot 134/348 for 38.5%. Last year was 33% on 99/301. So if Smith has about the mid-range game as Prince did, and Prince wasn't a spacing problem, the Smith won't be either. And his defense is MUCH better than Princes was, as is his shot blocking (clearly).

On most nights, unless he's guarding LeBron, Durant, or Melo chances are good he's going to outscore the players he's guarding by a good amount. He adds defense to our team, great shot blocking, the kind of no nonsense attitude our players haven't had in a long time. I don't care if he's not the best fit for the team. Talent is always an asset you can't refuse, and no one can argue that he's not a talent. Even if we have to move players for him to be at his best that's fine. When you have an ability to add a top tier talent you don't say no because he might not fit with the talent you have. You add him, see how he fits, and then evaluate who to move. And based on his mid-range game vs Princes I have no reason to believe he can't fit at SF.

[ChipButty]

Most decent or average players can score 17.5 points on 15.9 shots a game. That's hardly efficient.

His only effecient methods of scoring rely on basket cuts (passes from teammates after the defense collapses), or in transition (from his own defense or from an outlet pass). He's not the initiator of his best methods of scoring unlike most good scorers in the NBA.

So Rudy Gay who averaged 18.2 points per game on 16.7 shots is a "2 way player" but Smith isn't?

I think you are reaching. 17.5 points was 24th in the league in scoring. Sure it wasn't his most efficient year scoring wise, but only 8 of the players above him had a better shooting percentage. One of his biggest problems is his free throw shooting. If he can get that back up to 70% we'll be in good shape.