My Concerns and predictions for next season

[DetroitPistons]

The term "two-way player" is mostly understood to mean someone who can score and defend. Smith averaged nearly 18ppg last year. He can score and defend. He is easily a two-way player. Just because someone isn't a perfectly well rounded offensive player doesn't mean they aren't a two-way player.

Anyone can score the basketball if given enough shots. You can broaden or narrow the definitions of a two-way player however you like. Some facts will always remain. Josh Smith was terrible offensively last season. It's terrible when a player's offensive rating is double digits. That's Ben Wallace territory. Historically, Smith is just not good on that side of the ball.

I'd consider a two way player that's at least good on both sides of the ball. Something Smith is not.

Okay we can just agree to disagree then. This is more of a matter of semantics then. Imo, anyone who puts up 18ppg on 47% shooting is a good enough offensive player to be considered a two-way player.

[E-Z]

Most decent or average players can score 17.5 points on 15.9 shots a game. That's hardly efficient.

His only effecient methods of scoring rely on basket cuts (passes from teammates after the defense collapses), or in transition (from his own defense or from an outlet pass). He's not the initiator of his best methods of scoring unlike most good scorers in the NBA.

So Rudy Gay who averaged 18.2 points per game on 16.7 shots is a "2 way player" but Smith isn't?

I think you are reaching. 17.5 points was 24th in the league in scoring. Sure it wasn't his most efficient year scoring wise, but only 8 of the players above him had a better shooting percentage. One of his biggest problems is his free throw shooting. If he can get that back up to 70% we'll be in good shape.

Good question.

All statistics require context. How are the shots taken, where, and how efficient are these players in such locations? This is what raw shot attempts and PPG don't explain. I highlighted this on the first page with Josh Smith.

Historically, Rudy Gay can do everything on offense Josh Smith can't, while still being a decent to good defender.

Gay can score in isolation. He's ranked 29th. Smith is 120th (via Synergy Sports). Gay is even a marginally better post player. He can score in the P&R as a ball handler due to his nature to being more of a guard/forward. Finally, he's better in transition than Smith.

In layman's terms, Gay can create offense much easier than Smith due to the fact that he does have a better jump shot. It opens up driving lanes, even though he's reluctant to take them at times.

Both Gay and Smith's offensive ratings have fallen off a cliff this season, but you can attribute Gay just being in a shooting slump or disinterested with his role on the team. Josh Smith just never had a jump shot. It severely limits what his and the team's options are.

[ChipButty]

Most decent or average players can score 17.5 points on 15.9 shots a game. That's hardly efficient.

His only effecient methods of scoring rely on basket cuts (passes from teammates after the defense collapses), or in transition (from his own defense or from an outlet pass). He's not the initiator of his best methods of scoring unlike most good scorers in the NBA.

So Rudy Gay who averaged 18.2 points per game on 16.7 shots is a "2 way player" but Smith isn't?

I think you are reaching. 17.5 points was 24th in the league in scoring. Sure it wasn't his most efficient year scoring wise, but only 8 of the players above him had a better shooting percentage. One of his biggest problems is his free throw shooting. If he can get that back up to 70% we'll be in good shape.

Good question.

All statistics require context. How are the shots taken, where, and how efficient are these players in such locations? This is what raw shot attempts and PPG don't explain. I highlighted this on the first page with Josh Smith.

Historically, Rudy Gay can do everything on offense Josh Smith can't, while still being a decent to good defender.

Gay can score in isolation. He's ranked 29th. Smith is 120th (via Synergy Sports). Gay is even a marginally better post player. He can score in the P&R as a ball handler due to his nature to being more of a guard/forward. Finally, he's better in transition than Smith.

In layman's terms, Gay can create offense much easier than Smith due to the fact that he does have a better jump shot. It opens up driving lanes, even though he's reluctant to take them at times.

Both Gay and Smith's offensive ratings have fallen off a cliff this season, but you can attribute Gay just being in a shooting slump or disinterested with his role on the team. Josh Smith just never had a jump shot. It severely limits what his and the team's options are.

You are looking at Gay's stats for his time in Toronto but ignoring his stats from Memphis, where he ranked almost identical to Smith in isolation. Not sure you can attach much weight to something that fluctuates so much. What did they look like in 11/12? Plus, it doesn't account for the greater number of assists that Smith gets. Overall, I think Smith finds more ways to effect the game.

I'm still happy to have Smith on the team and look forward to seeing how things play out. Who knows, if the Smith, Moose and Dre lineup doesn't work, we may end up seeing Rudy Gay playing for the Pistons anyway.

[HotelVitale]

You're killin it, EZ. You shouldn't need to explain the difference between a good/efficient use of a possession and a bad one, and you shouldn't need to defend the fact that someone who had negative offensive win shares last year isn't a strong offensive player. If other posters just want to say that Smith can contribute more than Jarron Collins on offense, that's obvious and not a point worth making. But there's no disputing that, last year at least, you'd be much better having someone like Stuckey, Bynum, CV, or even Knight use a possession than Smith. Part of that is simply over confidence-- Smith shoots whenever he's open and takes any lane that he sees, bad shooting, turnovers, and better options be damned--and part of it is that Smith played unusually badly on offense last year. We could get a better version of Smith-on-offense next season, but we're not going to be happy with this one:
http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2013/0711/gr ... hSmith.jpg

Concerning some of your other points, I'm really not seeing how Drum, Smith, and Monroe can maximize their strengths together. It'll be exciting at times and Drum and Smith will make the pistons worth watching for the first time in years, but I don't think it will make sense. On nights when Monroe and Knight are playing badly, we could struggle to put up 75 points.

[Jodi]

I'm predicting that we'll offer the full MLE to Brandon Jennings if he continues to sit in FA...

[Pharaoh]

I'm predicting that we'll offer the full MLE to Brandon Jennings if he continues to sit in FA...

Um... we don't have the MLE to offer anyone!

We were $20 mil under the cap... we got that to spend and did so.

You can't spend all your cap space and then use the MLE too, it doesn't work that way. Surprised you don't know this Jodi

I'm enjoying the Smith discussion... hope it continues

[Jodi]

I'm predicting that we'll offer the full MLE to Brandon Jennings if he continues to sit in FA...

Um... we don't have the MLE to offer anyone!

We were $20 mil under the cap... we got that to spend and did so.

You can't spend all your cap space and then use the MLE too, it doesn't work that way. Surprised you don't know this Jodi

I'm enjoying the Smith discussion... hope it continues

Huh??. The MLE and mini-MLE are used when teams are under the cap...Didn't we go slightly under the cap after we signed Billups??.

[Pharaoh]

I'm predicting that we'll offer the full MLE to Brandon Jennings if he continues to sit in FA...

Um... we don't have the MLE to offer anyone!

We were $20 mil under the cap... we got that to spend and did so.

You can't spend all your cap space and then use the MLE too, it doesn't work that way. Surprised you don't know this Jodi

I'm enjoying the Smith discussion... hope it continues

Huh??. The MLE and mini-MLE are used when teams are under the cap...Didn't we go slightly under the cap after we signed Billups??.

Seriously Jodi? You don't now this? I find that hard to believe (take that as a compliment - the stuff I read leads me to believe you know everything about the NBA!)

Larry Coon is your friend mate: http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm

save that link in your favourites... sometimes it gets a bit technical if you're not quite sure...

like in the answer to the question about salary cap exceptions: http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q25

Does the Piston forum have a cap guru (Dre Drummond seems the most likely candidate)?

Do you guys have a salary cap thread or does it never really come up?

[Collymore]

Mentioning advanced stats at the same time as promoting Rudy Gays offense does not compute.

[retrolenny]

Billups is a born leader. When he is on the court, he will run the offense like he did when he was younger. He should still be able to jack up 3's and hit FT's at a high percentage. That doesn't disappear with age. What does is his ability to get to the basket. He will be our best G on the court when he is in the game. That doesn't say much for our backcourt!!

[retrolenny]

Um... we don't have the MLE to offer anyone!

We were $20 mil under the cap... we got that to spend and did so.

You can't spend all your cap space and then use the MLE too, it doesn't work that way. Surprised you don't know this Jodi

I'm enjoying the Smith discussion... hope it continues

Huh??. The MLE and mini-MLE are used when teams are under the cap...Didn't we go slightly under the cap after we signed Billups??.

Seriously Jodi? You don't now this? I find that hard to believe (take that as a compliment - the stuff I read leads me to believe you know everything about the NBA!)

Larry Coon is your friend mate: http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm

save that link in your favourites... sometimes it gets a bit technical if you're not quite sure...

like in the answer to the question about salary cap exceptions: http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q25

Does the Piston forum have a cap guru (Dre Drummond seems the most likely candidate)?

Do you guys have a salary cap thread or does it never really come up?

I would absolutely vomit if Jennings became a Piston... Iverson 2.0!!!

[Pharaoh]

Huh??. The MLE and mini-MLE are used when teams are under the cap...Didn't we go slightly under the cap after we signed Billups??.

Seriously Jodi? You don't now this? I find that hard to believe (take that as a compliment - the stuff I read leads me to believe you know everything about the NBA!)

Larry Coon is your friend mate: http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm

save that link in your favourites... sometimes it gets a bit technical if you're not quite sure...

like in the answer to the question about salary cap exceptions: http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q25

Does the Piston forum have a cap guru (Dre Drummond seems the most likely candidate)?

Do you guys have a salary cap thread or does it never really come up?

I would absolutely vomit if Jennings became a Piston... Iverson 2.0!!!

I didn't mention Jennings!

Jodi mentioned signing him with the MLE... which we don't have!

[Brapman]

great post. And don't forget, if it works best, he'll play a lot of minutes at PF, th

Smith might not be the most efficient scorer, but he can still score a good number of points. And the idea that he can't shoot well enough at SF for our team to score is wrong. When you look at the Piston teams back in the 2000s, Tayshaun never made more than 1 3 point attempt a game. Now, Prince had a really good mid-range shot, and according to basketball reference his % on those shots was always upper 30s. Smith has had several years shooting the ball from mid-range in the upper 30%. The year before last Smith shot 156/430 from 16ft to 3 point range for 36%. Year before that he shot 134/348 for 38.5%. Last year was 33% on 99/301. So if Smith has about the mid-range game as Prince did, and Prince wasn't a spacing problem, the Smith won't be either. And his defense is MUCH better than Princes was, as is his shot blocking (clearly).

On most nights, unless he's guarding LeBron, Durant, or Melo chances are good he's going to outscore the players he's guarding by a good amount. He adds defense to our team, great shot blocking, the kind of no nonsense attitude our players haven't had in a long time. I don't care if he's not the best fit for the team. Talent is always an asset you can't refuse, and no one can argue that he's not a talent. Even if we have to move players for him to be at his best that's fine. When you have an ability to add a top tier talent you don't say no because he might not fit with the talent you have. You add him, see how he fits, and then evaluate who to move. And based on his mid-range game vs Princes I have no reason to believe he can't fit at SF.

[oldncreaky]

Billups is a born leader. When he is on the court, he will run the offense like he did when he was younger. He should still be able to jack up 3's and hit FT's at a high percentage. That doesn't disappear with age. What does is his ability to get to the basket. He will be our best G on the court when he is in the game. That doesn't say much for our backcourt!!

I agree: that doesn't say much for our backcourt! Apart from CB, the Pistons guards have shown flashes, but collectively are a jumble of inconsistent, mismatched combo guards + a rookie. Our playoff hopes rest on CB's old legs.

So, how many minutes does CB play?

[Brapman]

Coach Cheeks at any time has the option to play a a frontline that

a) is totally dominant on D and on the boards, and who are major threats near the rim (Smith, Drummond, Monroe, Jerebko), all of whom are very willing and skilled passers. We don't discuss our big's passing ability very much here, but Monroe is one of the great passing big men, and so is Smith. I also think that every big on our roster except for CV, is a fine and willing passer. Monroe at the high post passing to Smith in the low post or cutting to the basket, or penetrating and making smart quick interior passes to Drummond (with his phenomenal hands), and all the bigs being able to throw it out to our many 3 pt shooters on this roster -- this, in time, might work out a lot better than the critics are realizing.

b) Going with one or two of the big 3 big men, and surrounding them with 3 (or 4) long range shooters. If the coach prefers, he can play Smith between 25 and 35 minutes at PF, since in the normal rotations, Drummond and Monroe will rest for a combined 25 to 40 minutes per game, depending on the flow of the game, injuries, matchups and normal rest time.

c) There's a LOT to sort out with our front line. Singler, Middleton, JJ, CV, MItchell will be in a major fight for PT off the bench. That's a lot of NBA rotation quality talent right there. I believe Singler and MIddleton are NBA starter quality right now, or will be in the very near future. I think MIddleton in particular could become a star in this league, and I think Singler could be the ultimate glue guy. And I think MItchell can get to that level. How they integrate and fit into our team's offensive schemes is just not possible to accurately predict right now. It's going to be wild sorting this out. Singler has so far proved to be impossible for his coach not to have out on the floor, and he'll likely improve his efficiency a lot in his second season - especially since he will not be asked to play as many minutes, and he had to be exhausted playing as much BB as he did in Europe and coming over without a break last year.

d) Who wins the guards PT battles might/should have a direct effect on how the front line's rotation minutes are sorted out. Will the 3 pt scorers in our backcourt win tons of PT? (Knight, KCP, Billups - are all primo 3 pt scorers - or will be in short order in this league). Stuckey and Bynum are primarily guys who kill you getting to the paint and breaking down defenses while doing so, but they are not serious 3 pt threats. Imagine a lineup of Billups, Stuckey, Smith, Drummond and Monroe -- that would probably be the most physical smash mouth lineup in the league. Could they possibly meld together on the court? Or should one or two of Smith Drummond and Monroe take a seat on the bench to bring in better shooters like CV, SIngler and Middleton, when those two guards play together? And Mitchell could be a wildcard: if he can develop his ability to be a team defender fast enough, we could go with the greatest shot blocking lineup, perhaps in league history? with him Drummond and Smith, combined with athletically outstanding defending guards in KCP and Knight. How would that be for a defensive substitution late in the 4th quarter of a game where we need a stop?

Complex stuff, but extremely fun to think about now. I love that we have this upgrade in talent so we can even have this discussion.

[Jodi]

Um... we don't have the MLE to offer anyone!

We were $20 mil under the cap... we got that to spend and did so.

You can't spend all your cap space and then use the MLE too, it doesn't work that way. Surprised you don't know this Jodi

I'm enjoying the Smith discussion... hope it continues

Huh??. The MLE and mini-MLE are used when teams are under the cap...Didn't we go slightly under the cap after we signed Billups??.

Seriously Jodi? You don't now this? I find that hard to believe (take that as a compliment - the stuff I read leads me to believe you know everything about the NBA!)

Larry Coon is your friend mate: http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm

save that link in your favourites... sometimes it gets a bit technical if you're not quite sure...

like in the answer to the question about salary cap exceptions: http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q25

Does the Piston forum have a cap guru (Dre Drummond seems the most likely candidate)?

Do you guys have a salary cap thread or does it never really come up?

Dre Drummond is too young to be considered a guru candidate ...Here is what I found on your link...

NON-TAXPAYER MID-LEVEL EXCEPTION -- This exception is available only when a team is below the "apron" (i.e., not paying luxury tax, or less than $4 million above the tax line). This determination is made after the exception is used, so a team below the apron cannot use this exception if doing so takes it above the apron. It cannot be used by a team that has already used the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception or the Room Mid-Level exception. It allows a team to sign any free agent to a contract with a starting salary up to the following amounts3:
Season First-year salary
2011-12 $5.000 million
2012-13 $5.000 million
2013-14 $5.150 million
2014-15 $5.305 million
2015-16 $5.464 million
2016-17 $5.628 million
2017-18 $5.797 million
2018-19 $5.971 million
2019-20 $6.150 million
2020-21 $6.335 million

I thought we were slightly below the apron when we signed Billups...If true, we could offer Jennings a MLE deal...If we're still above the cap I understand what you're saying...My idea was based off thinking that we're slightly below the cap...

[Jodi]

I would absolutely vomit if Jennings became a Piston... Iverson 2.0!!!

We could bring Jennings off the bench...Billups and Cheeks might be able to help Jennings get his game together...

[Pharaoh]

Huh??. The MLE and mini-MLE are used when teams are under the cap...Didn't we go slightly under the cap after we signed Billups??.

Seriously Jodi? You don't now this? I find that hard to believe (take that as a compliment - the stuff I read leads me to believe you know everything about the NBA!)

Larry Coon is your friend mate: http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm

save that link in your favourites... sometimes it gets a bit technical if you're not quite sure...

like in the answer to the question about salary cap exceptions: http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q25

Does the Piston forum have a cap guru (Dre Drummond seems the most likely candidate)?

Do you guys have a salary cap thread or does it never really come up?

Dre Drummond is too young to be considered a guru candidate ...Here is what I found on your link...

NON-TAXPAYER MID-LEVEL EXCEPTION -- This exception is available only when a team is below the "apron" (i.e., not paying luxury tax, or less than $4 million above the tax line). This determination is made after the exception is used, so a team below the apron cannot use this exception if doing so takes it above the apron. It cannot be used by a team that has already used the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception or the Room Mid-Level exception. It allows a team to sign any free agent to a contract with a starting salary up to the following amounts3:
Season First-year salary
2011-12 $5.000 million
2012-13 $5.000 million
2013-14 $5.150 million
2014-15 $5.305 million
2015-16 $5.464 million
2016-17 $5.628 million
2017-18 $5.797 million
2018-19 $5.971 million
2019-20 $6.150 million
2020-21 $6.335 million

I thought we were slightly below the apron when we signed Billups...If true, we could offer Jennings a MLE deal...If we're still above the cap I understand what you're saying...My idea was based off thinking that we're slightly below the cap...

Dude, right now we're slightly below the cap... and yes that would qualify us for the exception you quoted...

But in order to get to this point we've spent a truckload of money mate. We signed Josh Smith, Bynum, Billups, Billups, Datome... you don't get to spend all that cap space and then use exceptions.

You either get exceptions OR you get your cap room...

IF your cap room is LESS than the sum of all the exceptions you'd be eligible for then you get your exceptions.

IF your cap space is MORE than the sum of all the exceptions you'd be eligible for you get your cap space.

You don't get both!