Wizards Interested in DeJuan Blair!

[nate33]

Booker v. Blair . . . is there a big advantage to Blair? Booker's been more fragile but Blair's health issues are more of the recurring nature. Blair is clearly the better rebounder, Booker the better defender. Blair's younger. Offensively, both are short widebodied players without great range. About equivalent efficiency but Blair has the higher usage -- shoots more, passes more, turns the ball over A LOT more, fouls more.

I don't see a real advantage to Blair over Booker other than moving the pieces around to see if either respond to a new environment . . . maybe an even up swap or throwing in a 2nd on our part (or Singleton).

I agree. Furthermore, Booker is more of a natural PF than Blair, where our need is greater. I think we're okay at center with Okafor, Nene and Seraphin.

[nate33]

Trevor Booker versus Dejuan Blair last season, pace adjusted per-36:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  3P%  TS%  PER
booker,trevor   10.4  9.7  1.6  1.3  0.6  1.3 .491 .000 .509 13.9
blair,dejuan    13.4  9.4  1.8  1.5  0.4  2.0 .524 .000 .543 14.4

Their numbers are really close. I think it's important to note that, since both are role players, they are dependent on having good primary scorers around them so that they can thrive as garbage players. Blair has Duncan, Parker and Ginobili. Booker has just John Wall, and he played most of the season without him. Here are Booker's numbers over the 2nd half of the season, presumably with a much greater percentage of minutes alongside Wall:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  3P%  TS%  PER
booker,trevor   11.1 10.0  1.5  1.1  0.5  0.9 .521 .000 .544 15.6

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Trevor Booker versus Dejuan Blair last season, pace adjusted per-36:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  3P%  TS%  PER
booker,trevor   10.4  9.7  1.6  1.3  0.6  1.3 .491 .000 .509 13.9
blair,dejuan    13.4  9.4  1.8  1.5  0.4  2.0 .524 .000 .543 14.4

Their numbers are really close. I think it's important to note that, since both are role players, they are dependent on having good primary scorers around them so that they can thrive as garbage players. Blair has Duncan, Parker and Ginobili. Booker has just John Wall, and he played most of the season without him. Here are Booker's numbers over the 2nd half of the season, presumably with a much greater percentage of minutes alongside Wall:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  3P%  TS%  PER
booker,trevor   11.1 10.0  1.5  1.1  0.5  0.9 .521 .000 .544 15.6

Why not post career numbers, nate?

Use a larger sample size and make the same argument.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Moved this from the trade thread:

I would be happy with Blair, he's been humbled by years on SAT bench, could actually get good minutes here.
I doubt Bonner would be apart of it.. Strange though to me that we can't get more for Ariza.. i feel like teams would want a wing D with expiring contract!

just want to add that the talk about Blair for Booker is a waste, both are same player literally and I might rather have booker if he can stay healthy.

I respectfully disagree, gwizz. I think Blair's an elite talent.

He had a 20/20 game as a rookie and has started a couple hundred games for the Spurs. He's younger than Booker by about a year-and-a-half. Trevor's explosive and a good player, too, but he's not in the same class as Blair IMO. Blair is a much stronger rebounder and an even better interior scorer. Trevor is way faster and a quicker leaper but he isn't a big bully like Blair is.

What makes Blair the better player IMO is the physicality and extra rebounds with a few more points he can give.

[gambitx777]

I would do Jan and some future seconds,
for
Blair (2-3 mill a year, 3-4 years) and mills

I think the spurs might want to take a flyer on Jan like they did with splitter.

[nate33]

Trevor Booker versus Dejuan Blair last season, pace adjusted per-36:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  3P%  TS%  PER
booker,trevor   10.4  9.7  1.6  1.3  0.6  1.3 .491 .000 .509 13.9
blair,dejuan    13.4  9.4  1.8  1.5  0.4  2.0 .524 .000 .543 14.4

Their numbers are really close. I think it's important to note that, since both are role players, they are dependent on having good primary scorers around them so that they can thrive as garbage players. Blair has Duncan, Parker and Ginobili. Booker has just John Wall, and he played most of the season without him. Here are Booker's numbers over the 2nd half of the season, presumably with a much greater percentage of minutes alongside Wall:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  3P%  TS%  PER
booker,trevor   11.1 10.0  1.5  1.1  0.5  0.9 .521 .000 .544 15.6

Why not post career numbers, nate?

Use a larger sample size and make the same argument.

Because I think recent production is more predictive of future production.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If you want to go on recent, what about injuries?

Booker played in 48 games the past season. Blair played in 64.

--Blair's past consists of: A Final Four; a US National Junior FIBA Gold medal; starting over 150 games for the Spurs (including playoffs). Blair also has a career playoff PER of 23.1, and career playoff WS/48 of .220.

--He has a much more impressive body of work than Booker.
--His rebounding rate is much higher than Booker's for his career.

I think just the opposite, nate. Recent might be a trend that is subject to change.

Past performance over time is the best predictor of future performance.

The more data the more predictive. Blair is better.

[nate33]

Even if you look at career numbers, I think it's pretty even.

Booker has a career ORtg of 112 and a DRtg of 105
Blair has a career ORtg of 107 and a DRtg of 101

DRtg is heavily influenced by help from teammates and we all know San Antonio has the edge there so I'd say their defensive impact is probably a wash. (This year, when Booker had teammates who could actually defend, he posted a DRtg of 102.) Booker is therefore the better offensive player and an equivalent defender.

Injuries are definitely a factor. If you wanted to argue that a Booker for Blair trade makes sense on the grounds of injuries, I wouldn't disagree. I'm just saying that I don't think Blair is really any better than Booker as far as in-game production. This idea that Blair is an "elite talent" is just ridiculous. He's a mediocre role player, just like Booker.

[hands11]

Booker v. Blair . . . is there a big advantage to Blair? Booker's been more fragile but Blair's health issues are more of the recurring nature. Blair is clearly the better rebounder, Booker the better defender. Blair's younger. Offensively, both are short widebodied players without great range. About equivalent efficiency but Blair has the higher usage -- shoots more, passes more, turns the ball over A LOT more, fouls more.

I don't see a real advantage to Blair over Booker other than moving the pieces around to see if either respond to a new environment . . . maybe an even up swap or throwing in a 2nd on our part (or Singleton).

Thats what I said a few pages back.

But if Splitter was involved in the deal, then I would be interested.

Plus consider this. Booker has been injured but its nothing like the kind of injury Blair has. He could jump and get injured at any time. Booker was not an injured player in college. This round Robin he has gone through in the NBA is in part his own fault for not training properly. I wasn't resting enough.

Blair is an interesting player for sure. Just nothing I'm overly excited about in a swop to just gets us him without moving other players and getting more back.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Even if you look at career numbers, I think it's pretty even.

Booker has a career ORtg of 112 and a DRtg of 105
Blair has a career ORtg of 107 and a DRtg of 101

DRtg is heavily influenced by help from teammates and we all know San Antonio has the edge there so I'd say their defensive impact is probably a wash. (This year, when Booker had teammates who could actually defend, he posted a DRtg of 102.) Booker is therefore the better offensive player and an equivalent defender.

Injuries are definitely a factor. If you wanted to argue that a Booker for Blair trade makes sense on the grounds of injuries, I wouldn't disagree. I'm just saying that I don't think Blair is really any better than Booker as far as in-game production. This idea that Blair is an "elite talent" is just ridiculous. He's a mediocre role player, just like Booker.

Blair finished first in the entire NBA in offensive rebound percentage in 2010-2011, and seventh in 2011-2012 at the ages of 21 and 22 years of age (logging over 3000 minutes). He's an elite rebounder.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rde01.html

I believe he is an elite talent and that the only thing ridiculous was Gregg Popovich not playing him against the Heat.

[LyricalRico]

There's a reason Blair is still out there. He's not elite. But that doesn't mean he can't help a team. I'd trade for him just shake to things up in the frontcourt. But if we don't, I'm not going to have any regrets.

[TwentyOne920]

Okay, Spurs fan here, and I'll give my two cents:

Yes, Blair's not the best defender around. He's too small at 6'7" to be effective in the post (more skilled guys like Roy Hibbert can simply hit a hook over him) and he's too slow to be effective on the perimeter or on the pick and roll.

On the other hand, he's very effective on the pick and roll (his two man game with Tony Parker and especially Manu Ginobili is a treat to watch, and I believe his falling out of the rotation helped make Ginobili's decline more apparent) and he's a surprisingly good passer. And I haven't even mentioned his rebounding; he's definitely a better rebounder than Tiago Splitter. OTOH, his jump shot and FTs are a work in progress, even if Chip Engelland has helped him. He's been trying to shoot more Js when he does get PT because of a contract year situation.

[nate33]

Even if you look at career numbers, I think it's pretty even.

Booker has a career ORtg of 112 and a DRtg of 105
Blair has a career ORtg of 107 and a DRtg of 101

DRtg is heavily influenced by help from teammates and we all know San Antonio has the edge there so I'd say their defensive impact is probably a wash. (This year, when Booker had teammates who could actually defend, he posted a DRtg of 102.) Booker is therefore the better offensive player and an equivalent defender.

Injuries are definitely a factor. If you wanted to argue that a Booker for Blair trade makes sense on the grounds of injuries, I wouldn't disagree. I'm just saying that I don't think Blair is really any better than Booker as far as in-game production. This idea that Blair is an "elite talent" is just ridiculous. He's a mediocre role player, just like Booker.

Blair finished first in the entire NBA in offensive rebound percentage in 2010-2011, and seventh in 2011-2012 at the ages of 21 and 22 years of age (logging over 3000 minutes). He's an elite rebounder.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rde01.html

I believe he is an elite talent and that the only thing ridiculous was Gregg Popovich not playing him against the Heat.

I'm not impressed by you cherry picking specific numbers to make a point. Last year, Blair had a TRB% of 15.6. Booker's was 14.9. The difference in negligible. I could just as easily point out to you that Blair is a pathetic shot blocker for an inside player who is supposed to protect the rim. In his last two seasons, he average 0.3 and 0.4 blocked shots per 36 minutes. Booker averaged 1.2 and 0.6 blocks shots (per 36). We can also talk about Blair's high turnover rate relative to his USG%.

The numbers are what they are. Don't make them sound like they're something different. Blair is a slightly better rebounder than Booker but a less efficient scorer. It's a simple as that. My biggest problem with Blair is that for a garbage player who can't really create much offense, he doesn't provide much defense either. At least Booker is a very good man-to-man defender against certain matchups like Melo or Blake Griffin. (I don't want to overstate Booker's defensive prowess though. He's a pretty bad pick and roll defender.)

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Since you went there, you cherry picked by using one season and completely ignoring the fact that Booker was injured, nate. I just care about the big picture.

I think career splits is the best way to see the difference between Booker and Blair:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 01/splits/
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 01/splits/

Blair has been far better on the boards, better as a scorer per-minute, and also the better passer.

Look at the games as a starter, games as a reserve, games in which each player played between 20-29 minutes, and when they played between 30-39 minutes. That tells the entire story.

If you look at career splits VS east, same minutes and Blair has the higher FG, more points, more rebounds, more assists. Career vs the West, BOOKER has shot higher FG but again, more points, rebounds, assists, for Blair.

Blair is the better player. No doubt in my mind.

[TwentyOne920]

Blair's gonna look worse without Parker and Ginobili feeding him the ball in the P&R, unless he spends most of his PT with Wall, tbh.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Blair's gonna look worse without Parker and Ginobili feeding him the ball in the P&R, unless he spends most of his PT with Wall, tbh.

I can play this game. (I am not mad at you, TwentyOne920. Thanks for posting. ).

Blair's going to look great rebounding missed shots, Wall's and other players.

[pad300]

Spurs fan here, for a couple of comments.

1) The only way the proposed deals with Splitter included work, would be if WAS included a couple of unprotected 1st round picks.... In other words, they don't.

2) The Spurs are probably looking for a SF (having 7 guards, 6 bigs, and 1 SF on the roster...). Wiz have Porter, who they just drafted at 3ed, so I doubt he's going anywhere, Webster, who they just re-signed for $22M/4 years, and Ariza - who's making $7.7M to be 3ed SF? What do you think is going to happen?

3) According to many comments on this thread and the wiretap, the Wiz are looking for a stretch 4. The Spurs are likely willing to deal Bonner - he didn't play of lot of minutes for them last year. Other possible SAS candidates for making a deal include Gary Neal (S&T), Mills, and DeColo (and maybe Baynes).

IF a deal happens, the core of the deal will look something like

Ariza for Blair + Bonner

and SAS will likely want at least a 2nd round pick back for taking on $7.7M in salary.

[doclinkin]

nvm

[nuposse04]

Spurs fan here, for a couple of comments.

1) The only way the proposed deals with Splitter included work, would be if WAS included a couple of unprotected 1st round picks.... In other words, they don't.

2) The Spurs are probably looking for a SF (having 7 guards, 6 bigs, and 1 SF on the roster...). Wiz have Porter, who they just drafted at 3ed, so I doubt he's going anywhere, Webster, who they just re-signed for $22M/4 years, and Ariza - who's making $7.7M to be 3ed SF? What do you think is going to happen?

3) According to many comments on this thread and the wiretap, the Wiz are looking for a stretch 4. The Spurs are likely willing to deal Bonner - he didn't play of lot of minutes for them last year. Other possible SAS candidates for making a deal include Gary Neal (S&T), Mills, and DeColo (and maybe Baynes).

IF a deal happens, the core of the deal will look something like

Ariza for Blair + Bonner

and SAS will likely want at least a 2nd round pick back for taking on $7.7M in salary.

1) Either Spurs fans overrate their player value, or you're insane, no way you'd get unprotected picks for a roleplaying Pf/C.

2) Ariza is the only realistic trade chip we have, that coupled with a protected 14/15 1st round pick but for the right player (blair not being that player)

3) I think Bonner is still a very useful player, wouldn't be wise to give up his expiring contract from the Spurs end IMO. His iffy D be damned, still an elite shooter.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Spurs fan here, for a couple of comments.

1) The only way the proposed deals with Splitter included work, would be if WAS included a couple of unprotected 1st round picks.... In other words, they don't.

2) The Spurs are probably looking for a SF (having 7 guards, 6 bigs, and 1 SF on the roster...). Wiz have Porter, who they just drafted at 3ed, so I doubt he's going anywhere, Webster, who they just re-signed for $22M/4 years, and Ariza - who's making $7.7M to be 3ed SF? What do you think is going to happen?

3) According to many comments on this thread and the wiretap, the Wiz are looking for a stretch 4. The Spurs are likely willing to deal Bonner - he didn't play of lot of minutes for them last year. Other possible SAS candidates for making a deal include Gary Neal (S&T), Mills, and DeColo (and maybe Baynes).

IF a deal happens, the core of the deal will look something like

Ariza for Blair + Bonner

and SAS will likely want at least a 2nd round pick back for taking on $7.7M in salary.

1) Either Spurs fans overrate their player value, or you're insane, no way you'd get unprotected picks for a roleplaying Pf/C.

2) Ariza is the only realistic trade chip we have, that coupled with a protected 14/15 1st round pick but for the right player (blair not being that player)

3) I think Bonner is still a very useful player, wouldn't be wise to give up his expiring contract from the Spurs end IMO. His iffy D be damned, still an elite shooter.

http://basketball.realgm.com/tradecheck ... de/6316421

Ariza for Bonner and Blair could work. Makes sense for both teams.