Central division - Bulls or Pacers?

[EuroPacer]

Around these forums I keep seeing people claim the Bulls will finish at a similar position as us, what do people here think? i reckon we'll take it with about 3 to 4 games overall.

[Scoot McGroot]

Well, Rose is the biggest addition to any team this upcoming season.

I wouldn't be surprised if they're right there with us, if not ahead of us a bit.

[EuroPacer]

It is one of the many interesting sub-stories for the coming season, I couldn't cope with the Bulls nudging ahead of us after all the grief I gave a Bulls fan for last season! I have this feeling Rose is never going to come back to his pre-injury level although he will still be a great player, too often have I seen a serious injury screw with someone's head, never mind health. We shall see how things work out!

[xBulletproof]

It all depends on Rose. I have doubts about his ability to be the same guy. He and Russell Westbrook are the 2 guys I've worried about having a major injury since they got in the NBA. They both rely on their explosiveness and athleticism. Any loss of that and he can't be the same. He isn't an above average passer, or shooter. If he can't beat his man as easily as before he can't drive and kick for assists and his scoring is dependent on getting to the rim too.

If he's slowed at all and guys are able to close in on him and he can't get by them regularly he'll be in trouble. He certainly can't shoot over them well.

If he's fine it should be really close. If he's slowed, it should be pretty easy for the Pacers. In either case, I expect it to be us winning.

[SmashMouthRod]

I think Chicago will be much improved but so will Indy; Paul George is expected to be a superstar now. Hibbert is much better than he was pre-injury Derrick Rose. Derrick Rose will improve the bulls to the third team in my estimation. One big difference will be the bulls bench. They lost Asik last season; and Belinelli and Nate Robinson this offseason. Hard to imagine the Bulls being better than Indy with those type of losses and no legitimate replacements. The Pacers main guns are still getting better; and with an improved bench will create all kinds of problems for the Bulls. Including George guarding Rose. Indy takes season series 3-1 in a bunch of nail bitters. I think its possible Indy can flip-flop with Miami for the number one seed for good part of the season.

Rose/Hinrich
Butler/Dunleavy
Deng/Dunleavy
Boozer/Gibson
Noah/Mohammed
vs
Hill/Watson
George/Stephenson
Granger/George/Hill
West/Copeland
Hibbert/Mahinmi

[Scoot McGroot]

Until evidence shows otherwise, Rose is a much better player than George. It's that simple. Rose was an unquestioned superstar and we are hoping that George makes that step to superstar. It's that simple.

[EuroPacer]

I totally agree with that view Scoot, it is dangerous to big-up George too much at this stage of his career, he is still a youngster at 22/23 y/o. But Rose wouldn't be the first superstar to fall of his perch after screwed up knees would he?
I genuinely hope he comes back 100% though, he was an exciting player to watch and the NBA needs teams with single stars to remain interesting. I hate all these 'superthree' formations and genuinely hope the new CBA will manage to put an end to that. Houston and Brooklyn haven't got me convinced so far though...

[23artest23]

I'm also disgusted with this new 3 stars concept. To cut it short, it seems to come down to whether you have an owner willing to pay hardcore luxury tax. The Heat and Nets owners (Arison and Prohkerovh if I remember right) appear quite willing. I believe there is some sort of stipulation limiting the years that can be done but regardless, it sure puts most teams at an unfair advantage and as a fan, I don't like it. If I weren't such a basketball junkie, I would have quit watching the NBA several years back. The flop game and the star friendly, often overall terrible officiating have really turned me off in recent years. Now, we have the addition of the 3 star system. If the college game was year round, I'd probably eliminate the NBA from my life. Both have flaws but I prefer the amateur sort. Oddly enough, it was the NBA I loved growing up and was fair-weather with college ball. The product the NBA provided on court has changed dramatically in the last 12 or 15 years. Despite all my complaints, I still find myself following the Pacers hardcore each and every year. I love the organization, players, and watching games despite my reservations of the league as a whole. I'm done ranting now

I expect Chicago to be right there with us. I feel we have the better team but Thibs coaching gets them a ton of wins they wouldn't get otherwise. He seems to just win a ton in the regular season. With that said, it wouldn't completely shock me if the Bulls won the Central division. If Rose plays close to his old self, they will be very competitive November thru April. We have the better squad though and if we met in the playoffs with both teams healthy, we would send them packing. I realize they've lost Marco and Nate but Jimmy Butler will step for them. They'll be a playoff team, no doubt, but I expect us to win the Central and send Chicago packing if we met them later.

[Solid]

We are enough better than them right now to make up for the difference between the additions of Rose/Granger respectively.
The only way they may be better is Rose comes back at 100% and Danny cant beat out Solo.

[SmashMouthRod]

Until evidence shows otherwise, Rose is a much better player than George. It's that simple. Rose was an unquestioned superstar and we are hoping that George makes that step to superstar. It's that simple.

I agree that Rose is better but this Pacers team is better than this Bulls team with Rose at 100%. My confidence is in the fact that George could guard him well as rookie; Im certain I like him guarding Rose now. I would bet my money on these Pacers against any eastern foe other than Miami. George is a Superstar right now. Not many players in the league you can find like him. Defends and clamps 1-4 and can put up points against the best of defenders. Yes you want more consistency from him and improved decision making; but his play has already warranted the title of superstar franchise player. No ones hoping he makes the leap anymore; The torch was passed last season; The expectations are for him to be that guy beginning next Season.

[Boneman2]

We are enough better than them right now to make up for the difference between the additions of Rose/Granger respectively.
The only way they may be better is Rose comes back at 100% and Danny cant beat out Solo.

Agreed.

The Bulls and Pacers will both improve due to the additions of Rose and Granger respectively. From this standpoint alone Chicago is gaining substantially more than we are but that doesn't account for our potential to get exponentially better than an already established Bulls roster. In other words our room for growth is much greater.

In 2011 the Bulls had the #1 defense. Now we have the #1 defense. Big difference.

Pacers 59 wins
Bulls 54 wins

[Scoot McGroot]

We are enough better than them right now to make up for the difference between the additions of Rose/Granger respectively.
The only way they may be better is Rose comes back at 100% and Danny cant beat out Solo.

Agreed.

The Bulls and Pacers will both improve due to the additions of Rose and Granger respectively. From this standpoint alone Chicago is gaining substantially more than we are but that doesn't account for our potential to get exponentially better than an already established Bulls roster. In other words our room for growth is much greater.

In 2011 the Bulls had the #1 defense. Now we have the #1 defense. Big difference.

Pacers 59 wins
Bulls 54 wins

I think we are all forgetting how thoroughly Rose used to kick our butts solo. Add in a greatly developing wing in Jimmy Butler and great pieces in Noah and Deng, and an underrated piece in Boozer? It's a dead heat, at best, until we prove otherwise.

[EuroPacer]

Who was our best defensive guard two years ago? I can see George covering Rose and giving him a hard time whilst Hill switches to guard their SG. You are right though, Rose is a big enigma at the moment and there is nothing straightforward about the clashes ahead, should make for some great games.

[8305]

Right now on paper I've got to give to edge to Chicago. Their star (Rose over George). The remaining starters are about even. I'd give the nod to West and Hibbert over Boozer and Noah but Butler and Deng win over Hill and Stephenson. The benches even with Granger joining ours are about a wash. Heinrich and Gibson are pretty strong guys to have coming off the bench.

Edge to Bulls.

If Hibbert can dominate Noah the way he did against Chandler and Bosh we might have a game changer.

[Wizop]

I see Rose over Hill. I think West and Hibbert are better than Noah and Boozer. I like George, Stephenson, and Granger over Butler, Deng, and Heinrich. Bulls do have an edge coming off the bench with Gibson versus a big question mark. the head on head games should be fun. if we're going to finish ahead of them, we'll have to do better on the road against lottery teams than we did last year. we're not going to win back to back games unless our second unit improves.

[EuroPacer]

One reason I see us finishing higher is because I don't think we will repeat the poor start we had last season, provided the bench players get used to our systems this off season.

Having said that, our division will be tougher overall, I think the Pistons and the Cavs are potential play off teams as well, if Detroit manage to trade for Rondo (with Monroe and Knight perhaps?) we have three strong teams in the same division.

There is a lot of rolling of the dice this season and the more I think about it, the more I think our regular season will offer plenty of interesting stories.

[Boneman2]

To me we have tested ourselves against a team much greater than the Bulls. Who at their peak did not challenge a pre-peaked Heat team. Chicago must prove Rose is fully capable before I blindly say Chicago is better than us. For all intents and purposes that would put Chicago above the Heat too.

When you add Rose to the mix, it might bring Chic. back to the Pacers level, or it might not. This is before adding Granger and accounting for more potential growth from our 2-yr. old core.

Since our 2011 matchup, George and Hibbert have become all-stars, plus we've added Hill, West, and Stephenson.

I expect Granger to fully dominate Deng again, so I stick by 59 wins for the Pacer and 54 for Chicago.

[EuroPacer]

59 wins for us? That is optimistic! Would sign on the dotted line for it straight away though!

[Martial]

Bulls fan here, and i'm not here to talk smack; I come in peace.

A lot of Pacer fans are very confident for the season ahead, and rightly so. The Pacers had a hell of a season last year and have a real good one in Paul George. But I want to address some of the things I read on this thread in particular, from a Bulls fan's point of view.

"[The Bulls] Who at their peak did not challenge a pre-peaked Heat team"

This couldn't be further from the truth. We are a much better team than we were then. There is a few things that need to be remembered:

1 - For that entire playoff run, it was almost always Rose going 1 on 5. And amazingly he pulled it off and took us to the ECF. One game that comes to mind is game 1 between the Bulls and Pacers. The Pacers had led all game and Derrick single handedly won us that game. A game that we didn't deserve to win.

2 - You had KEITH BOGANS as his partner in the backcourt, let that sink in... Noah was Noah, but he wasn't the player he is today. He is an all star, and until he was injured, he was a heavy favourite for DPoY. Much like the Pacers success story with George, Bulls fans are hoping that Jimmy Butler can continue to emerge. He has long surpassed Keith Bogans' level of production and is still very, very young. However, one thing that we don't have from that team is Asik. Forget our old bench mob, losing Asik was the only one that hurt.

3 - The 2011 Bulls were far from their peak... it was Thibs' first year as HC and Rose was 22 years old (hardly peak age). Whilst on the topic of Rose, someone already stated that he is an enigma right now. And although true, Bulls fans are optimistic and have every reason to be as far as i'm concerned. I personally believe he did the right thing by sitting out and was hoping that he would since March. According to reports, Derrick's athleticism is back. He is 100%. And expect him to have an improved shot (especially from 3), after all, it's all he has done for months now. Ric Bucher (and many other writers) have stated how it is improved with a higher arc, Ric also said that Rose was working on a left hand floater now, too. He also added 15 pounds of muscle. But again, all this remains to be seen. I'm confident he'll be better than pre-injury Rose, but we'll see.

"One big difference is the Bulls bench. They lost Asik last season; and Belinelli and Nate Robinson this offseason. Hard to imagine the Bulls being better than Indy with those type of losses and no legitimate replacements."

Losing Asik hurt. Losing Marco did not. And Nate, there is currently an offer on the table for him (talk more about this later).

Yes, losing Asik hurt because of his abilities, but more than that it hurt because Thibs ran Noah into the ground last year. Nazr showed toward the end of the season (when Thibs was forced to use him) that he was a capable backup. But it was too late, Noah already had plantar faciitis. If Nazr is used, OR, if the Bulls acquire a serviceable big with the last roster spot than losing Asik won't be as much of an issue as it was last year. Although i'd take him back in a heartbeat if possible.

Losing Marco did not hurt. Not one bit. I liked Marco, but some Bulls fans became delusional with their infatuation with him. They liked him over Korver because he could handle (a little) and create (barely). He shot career lows and was very inefficient in the regular season and post season. He was a very average defender, so much so that at the beginning of the year Thibs wouldn't let him on the floor. He would drive recklessly to the basket, which resulted in a miss or turnover. And he has been replaced with IMO a big upgrade in Dunleavy. He had 3 game winners for us, and Bulls fans get carried away with this saying he was clutch. He is not clutch at all. At Boston, the play broke down, the ball got tossed into him and he hurled it up at the rim and got lucky. Against Utah, he drove recklessly, missed, and Joakim hustled and got a big offensive rebound and Jimmy made a great pass and he hit the open shot to redeem himself. And finally, against Denver, Joakim made that great hustle rebound diving into the cheerleaders and he ran through and had a free layup. We need floor spacers with Rose's return, Marco is inefficient and inconsistent.

It has been reported that the Bulls have offered Nate the minimum. We are capable of offering him 120% of his contract last year (the minimum), which at this point in time could be his best offer. I'm not sure if we offered the full 120%. Anyway, us Bulls fans expected him to get some MMLE offers, or around there but there has been no such thing. And the possible suitors who expressed interest have all gone with other options, e.g. Indy taking CJ, the Knicks using their MMLE. Theres more examples, but I forget them. Point is, statistically, his year this year wasn't that much greater than past years. He is still a wildcard with a significant height disadvantage and average defence. But he can excel with us. Maybe he doesn't get that offer he is after, or the offer that he does get is close enough to that of the Bulls offer so that he stays. As each day passes, it becomes more and more possible.

Past three benches (at the start of the year, before injuries and Butler's emergence)
2011 bench: CJ Watson, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, Taj Gibson, Omer Asik
2012 bench: Nate Robinson, Marco Belinelli, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Nazr Mohummed
2013 bench thus far: Kirk Hinrich, Mike Dunleavy, Taj Gibson, Nazr Mohummed

Kirk Hinrich is without a doubt the best bench PG we've had. Our record this year with and without him is astounding. The Bulls were 9-21 without Kirk, and 41-23 with him. 41-23 is a very decent record, now throw Rose in. He should be able to stay healthy with a reduced role, too.

If we can bring back Nate for the bench 2 guard, it will be our best backcourt off the bench yet. Nate and Kirk were so fluid together last year, and Thibs has said that he likes Nate at the 2. Nate can be hidden on defence against a weak bench player (similar to how he guarded Wallace against BK, even though he's a starter), and it provides his scoring with Kirks defence and ability to run a team. He played SG when he single handedly had one of the best playoff 4th quarters ever against BK with Kirk at PG.

Mike Dunleavy over Marco Belinelli? Definitely. Better team defender, decent passer, but most importantly, much better floor spacer and 3PT shooter. Korver is a better shooter, though very one dimensional and was exploited defensively against the Heat in 2011 ECF. So i'm rolling with Mike.

Taj is older and a better player since 2011. He is supposedly taking 1000 jumpers a day this offseason and has improved his shot. We'll see.

Asik > Nazr. No doubt about it. Thats the only downgrade, but the rest are upgrades IMHO.

"In 2011 the Bulls had the #1 defense. Now we have the #1 defense. Big difference."

I am not trying to make excuses, even though it will sound like it. BUT, we were missing Kirk Hinrich 30 games. He is a helluva defender and cuts off all penetration. He gave Deron fits in the playoffs. Noah missed 18 games, and then returned and was limited. Taj missed 17 games with a sprained MCL. Deng had a minor hamstring tear and missed around 2 weeks. For so many games, we had Nate and Marco as our starting backcourt... add Boozer to that and defensively you're doomed regardless of who the other two are.

Thibs is the defensive guru, Vogel is good, but he is no Thibs. If healthy, i'm certain the Bulls will regain the #1 defence.

There was a few other things I wanted to reply to but I just realised how much i've typed so i'll leave it at that. Sorry for typing so much and well done if you got this far. It looks like our division is going to be very tough, and not just because of the Bulls and Pacers improvements. I look forward to your replies. Again, i'm not here to talk smack, just give a Bulls fan's POV.

[Scoot McGroot]

Be careful if you're counting on Dunleavy. He's by no means a defender. He'll trick you with his steal numbers and an occasional play, but he's a body. Maybe a bit better than Korver, but it's negligible.

Butler is going to be a great young piece for you guys, but if Hibbert plays the regular season on fire like he did in the playoffs, Noah is a fair match, if not Hibbert taking him a bit. After that, Rose is the only piece that worries me. But he worries me a lot.