Rotation/production prediction 2013/2014

[EuroPacer]

Huge post, apologies!

Let's talk about the season ahead! Kicking things off by predicting a rotation for the regular season, I will also attempt to have a stab at average production per player.

Point guard - George Hill - CJ Watson - Don Sloan (Sloan would be my candidate to sit in the early season)

2 guard
Lance Stephenson - Paul George - Orlando Johnson (OJ would also be a candidate to sit in the early season. I just don't see ;a player; in him at the moment though he seems a great character.)

Small Forward
Paul George - Danny Granger - Solomon Hill - Gerald Green (Green will get time early in the year, either he proves himself or he doesn't, either way they are looking to shift him)

Power Forward
David West - Chris Copeland - Danny Granger - Miles Plumlee

Center
Roy Hibbert - Ian Mahinmi - Miles Plumlee


The thinking is as follows:
PG24 will continue to develop but he won't make as gigantic a leap as he did last year. Lance will make quite a big jump this year in production but he will see a slight drop in mpg due to Granger coming back - I expect Granger at 3 to push PG24 to the 2 spot at times.
Granger will get solid minutes but I think he will still be limited due to concerns/slight relapses throughout the season. His production will be OK but not near his pre-injury days, this is mainly due to him playing in the second unit more.
I think George Hill will have a similar season as he did last year although I suspect he will be more comfortable on the 1 spot now and become more proficient at creating, his apg will go up.
Copeland will be productive in the second unit, similar to his production in NY but with a few more mpg.

I think we will see Miles Plumlee get a solid share of the rotation on both the 4 and 5 spots but I am not sure how productive he will be, I went with 4 ppg but it could easily be 2 or 6 as well.
I also see Solo get fairly regular minutes this year but the 3 spot is crowded - he will only see the floor regularly if DG is used as a stretch 4 in the second unit at times (which I think will happen).
We will see a slight decline in West's minutes and production this season, mainly because Vogel will want to keep him going for the next 3 years.

On the 5 spot we will see more production from Hibbert this year, he won't have to get used to being the top dog and I think the upward trend he started around Christmas last year will continue, he will play slightly more minutes. Mahinmi will be Mahinmi and have a very similar season to last year. Although I did have to consider the fact that he will have more shooters around him in the second unit, opening the potential for some put backs, so he could turn out to be more productive than I give him credit for.

The team stats will improve slightly on the offensive end - possibly pushing 98ppg, the defense will be slightly less effective due to the 4 spot being more of a weakness in that regard although I still think we should be able to keep opponents to an average of 92 points allowed.

Despite Rose coming back I think the Division is ours again, although it could be closer due to the Bulls winning a few more games. I predict a 53/29 regular season - I anticipate the central division being stronger than last year as I like what the Cavs and Pistons have done this off season in achieving their goal to be middle of the road.

The East will end up looking a lot like this:

Miami 60/22
Indiana 53/29
Brooklyn 50/32
Chicago 50/32
Washington 45/37
New York 42/40
Detroit 40/42
Toronto 39/43

Surprising huh!?

Feel free to shoot at this!

[Wizop]

I think you made a mistake listing each player only once which causes the minutes at the various positions not to add up to 48. The way you did it hides some pairings that we certainly will see such as PG and DG being on the floor together.

You also suggest that S Hill will only be on the floor if DG is at 4 and I don't see it that way. I think you are right to say he'll get 12 minutes and Green will get fewer than that but I don't think we're going to see a set 5 man second unit. I see S Hill playing 3 with many different people at the 2.

[EuroPacer]

Yeah, I am not familiar with the way one describes the rotation, it took me ages to work out how I could get the annual statistics to align with the rotation figures, I suspect that is where I screwed up.

Re. Solo, if you are right we will have a lengthy group on the floor with him and DG on the wings, which I like, but I am unable to envision it at the moment for some reason.

[Wizop]

if you can't envision SH and DG on the wings, how about SH and Lance? SH and Paul George? SH and GH? SH and PG. SH and OJ? SH and GH? SH and CJW? even SH and GGreen? I agree that neither SH or DG is suited to play two to the other's three but there are lots of combinations that work.

yes, you made your task hard by not listing players at multiple positions. the annual statistics don't have to be aligned if you show 48 minutes at each position. for example, you have:

Point guard
George Hill - 34 mpg / 14 ppg / 6 apg
CJ Watson - 18 mpg / 7 ppg / 2 apg
Don Sloan - 4 mpg /1 ppg / 1 apg

2 guard
Lance Stephenson - 25 mpg / 12 ppg / 3apg
Orlando Johnson - 10 mpg / 3 ppg /1 apg

that adds up to 56 minutes at point which is 8 too many nad only 35 at 2. if you feel good about the minutes you have assigned, then someone listing as a point guard must be playing some shooting guard. lets fix the point guard minutes by giving G Hill some minutes at the 2.

Point guard
George Hill - 26 mpg / 14 ppg / 6 apg
CJ Watson - 18 mpg / 7 ppg / 2 apg
Don Sloan - 4 mpg /1 ppg / 1 apg

2 guard
Lance Stephenson - 25 mpg / 12 ppg / 3apg
Orlando Johnson - 10 mpg / 3 ppg /1 apg
George Hill - 8 mpg

that helps but we're still short at 2 because we need Paul George there too and that probably means we've given too many minutes to OJ. so let's try

2 guard
Lance Stephenson - 28 mpg / 12 ppg / 3apg
Paul George - 12 mpg / 19 ppg
Orlando Johnson - 6 mpg / 3 ppg /1 apg
George Hill - 2 mpg

etc.

[mizzoupacers]

I think there will be pretty much an open tryout for the fourth wing player. Johnson, Hill, and Green (yes, Green) will all get a shot at it. Depending on how much Granger is able to play, the fourth wing could either see steady playing time, or hardly get to play at all.

I'm not convinced that Plumlee is going to get regular minutes in the rotation. I assume Copeland will get the minutes that Hansbrough got last year. Regardless of Summer League, I can't see Plumlee playing much next year unless someone ahead of him gets injured. Ditto for Sloan at point guard.

[Jake0890]

I'm with MizzouPacers here. I don't think Plumlee gets minutes with any sort of regularity. He will get garbage minutes and minutes due to injuries. Ill bet he spends a lot of time in the D-League too.

Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2

[SmashMouthRod]

I think Plum and Copelands minutes will be more based on matchups with Plum getting a slight nod because of the teams style of play. Plum presents a bigger more physical 4 man that rebounds and adjusts shots. I also think that Granger will start even though I would prefer Stephenson. The wing rotation will likely be at 3; with a 4th based on foul trouble or injury. Point guard minutes will be based on who's playing best. I can easily see a situation where if Watson has it going while G. Hill struggles Vogel could elect to ride with the hot hand.

My Projected Rotation
Hill/Watson
George/Stephenson/G. Hill
Granger/George/Solo
West/Plum/Copeland
Hibbert/Mahinmi/Plumlee

[Wizop]

agree on the open tryout for the wings but I don't expect a final answer in 2013. I think S Hill will earn more minutes as the year goes on and everything could change in the Spring.

as for Miles spending a lot of time in Fort Wayne, they've always preferred to have their guys work for the coaches in Indy only using the d-league when the team is on a long road trip. actually, last year was the first time they sent anyone there. I can see Miles going there to learn the 4 but that is a bit risky if he's the only option for the 3rd 5. I'm a bit disappointed that they didn't give him any time at the 4 in Orlando. he showed promise but had no game facing the bucket.

My Projected Rotation
Hill/Watson/Sloan
George/Stephenson/Johnson/G. Hill/Watson/Green
Granger/George/Copeland/Solo/Green
West/Copeland/Granger/Plumlee
Hibbert/Mahinmi/Plumlee

the problem is that's 14 names and only 13 can be active. I don't like Sloan or Plumlee being inactive as I believe in having 3 active point guards and 3 active centers. the easy choice is to say the rookie sits to begin the season but I think Green will have to earn his spot unless we merely show case him early. of course, if Danny is still rehabbing everything changes.

[EuroPacer]

I get it now, you guys are cheating and not doing the minutes thing! I'll edit my rotation to reflect the way you put things down.

I think both Green and Plumlee will get a shot in the early season, if they work out well, great, if they don't they will be moved (Green) or suitable cover will be brought in (Plumlee). I don't think Granger will start, certainly not all games, I can see Vogel making it dependent on who we are facing, if he needs aggressive transitional energy he will put in Lance, if he needs scoring off the bat he will put in Granger. The thing is though, I would prefer Granger as sixth man, he can score and will score, whether he comes off the bench or not.

[Boneman2]

Our rotation will fluctuate greatly over the course of the season until Vogel finds the right substitution patterns.

PG. G. Hill (20) / Watson (18) / Stephenson (6)/ PGeorge (4)
SG. George (14) / Stephenson (24),G. Hill (10)
SF. Granger (28), George (16), S.Hill/Green (4)
PF. West (28), Copeland (16), Granger (4)
C. Hibbert (30), Mahimi (16), Plumlee (2)

George 34 mpg
Granger 32 mpg
Stephenson 30 mpg
Hill 30 mpg
Hibbert 30 mpg
West 28 mpg
Watson 18 mpg
Copeland 16 mpg
Mahimi 16 mpg
SHill 4 mpg
Plumlee 2 mpg

* Essentially a nine-man rotation

I expect our over/under win threshold to be around 58-60 because I don't expect any lapses quite like the ones we had to start and end last season. DWest talked about the #1 seed in his press conference, undoubtably this goal is shared by his team.

[Wizop]

I don't see G GHill getting that many minutes at SG. I'd add those minutes .... oh, it's easier to just copy and edit your chart.

PG. G. Hill (30) / Watson (14) / Sloan (4)
SG. George (18) / Stephenson (24), Johnson/Green (6)
SF. Granger (26), George (16), S.Hill/Green (6)
PF. West (30), Copeland (12), Granger/Plumlee (4)
C. Hibbert (32), Mahimi (12), Plumlee (4)

[Boneman2]

I don't consider G.Hill's role to be pg. exclusive. He depends on Paul, and to a lesser degree Lance to create offense. Dribbling it down and throwing a typical outlet pass is in no way, shape, or form pg duties. Remember, we are unconventional in that George will lead the team in assists with Hill on the weakside 3-point line like a 2.

I think his role changes by possession between the 1 and 2 positions. At a 2-to-1 ratio I conclude 20/10.

[Wizop]

so if we played a Princeton office with a high post center passing to cutters, you'd say Roy Hibbert was the point guard because he was getting a lot of assists?

[Boneman2]

so if we played a Princeton office with a high post center passing to cutters, you'd say Roy Hibbert was the point guard because he was getting a lot of assists?

I consider the person who is creating offense for others the pg., passing is only one of many facets. I'd argue LeBron is a pg. in your scenario through a combination of handling the ball, setting up offensive sets, and distributing the ball.

Go to Pacers.com and click on GHill's most recent interview. He says he is still learning how to play the pg. position, and that it isn't natural for him. Let's face it, he plays off the ball more than most starting pg's (save:Chalmers), at this point he is a 2-guard.

[Wizop]

that George Hill could be a good 2-guard, I won't dispute. learning or not he is our point guard and we choose not to play him at 2 to maximize his learning at the 1. we did play him some at 2 in the playoffs when winning was the only objective.

getting back to the original question though, the issue is in preparing a rotation chart how many minutes we should give G Hill at 2. it's probably not zero as there will be times that match-ups suggest playing Hill and Watson or Hill and Sloan at the same time but I still think 10 is too high as I don't see that happening on an every night basis as I have hopes that S Hill will earn minutes at the 3 and push P George back to the 2.

[Boneman2]

^^^ Watson and Sloan do not have to be in for George Hill to be considered a 2-guard. At times he is a 2 with the starting lineup intact.

Our perimeter lineup is awfully versatile, so much so that it is nearly impossible to pigeon-hole anyone into a position label. Paul can play 4 positions (1-4), Danny 3 (2-4), Lance 2 (1-2), G.Hill 2 (1-2), and S.Hill maybe 3 (2-4). For comparison, back in the day Mark Jax was only a 1, Reggie was only a 2, and McKey was only a 3. Larry seems to prefer versatility more than Walsh, and it shows.

[Scoot McGroot]

I wouldn't yet confidently say that PG can play the 1. So far, he's shown that he's a lot like Iguodala and can play the 1 for a few possessions a night and that the offense can flow through him at times as well. Just not yet on long stretches of play. Maybe he'll get here this year, though.

[Wizop]

PG can defend the 1 and can bring the ball up court against pressure from a 3, but I don't see that as making him able to play the 1. I suppose I should make an exception for cases where the other team doesn't play a traditional 1 such as Miami with James at point.

[Boneman2]

I wouldn't yet confidently say that PG can play the 1. So far, he's shown that he's a lot like Iguodala and can play the 1 for a few possessions a night and that the offense can flow through him at times as well. Just not yet on long stretches of play. Maybe he'll get here this year, though.

Pretty much a taller Iggy with more scoring.

On the bolded part. This video shows George puts a lot of thought into handling the ball. I do think he is capable of imitating Lebron to a lesser degree.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIVlXsfwHRk

Edit: It's a link. Any advice on embedding the video?

[Scoot McGroot]

Showed up as a video on the iPhone app.