Reports: Blue Jays aren't interested in trading Josh Johnson

[polo007]

http://twitter.com/jcrasnick/statuses/3 ... 8041475072

Jerry Crasnick

@jcrasnick

Rival execs hearing #bluejays have no plans to shop Josh Johnson at trade deadline. It appears he's staying put.

11:26 AM - 17 Jul 13

http://twitter.com/jcrasnick/statuses/3 ... 7648346112

Jerry Crasnick

@jcrasnick

Johnson's trade value down with 1-5 record, 5.16 ERA & injuries. #BlueJays could keep him & give him compensation offer.

11:28 AM - 17 Jul 13

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/blue-jays- ... 41133.html

Though the Toronto Blue Jays sit deep in the cellar of the American League East, they continue to tell teams they have no interest in trading Josh Johnson, two executives told Yahoo! Sports.

While some believe the Blue Jays simply are trying to drive up Johnson’s price, others can see the rationale in general manager Alex Anthopoulos’ steadfast stance on keeping Johnson despite an 11½-game deficit in the East and an 8½-game hole behind four teams in the wild-card race.

With his trade value limited and his two starts before the July 31 trade deadline unlikely to change it, one AL general manager said the Blue Jays have considered holding onto Johnson and offering him a free-agent compensation tender this offseason. If Johnson accepts it, he would receive a one-year deal for around $15 million, a hefty sum for a pitcher who has struggled but has a significant ceiling.

Considering the thin free-agent pitching class, Johnson could opt to test the market, though a strong multiyear offer is unlikely because of his history of arm trouble as well as the potential draft-pick loss if the Blue Jays do tender him.

[Al_Oliver]

Lott doesn't seem too impressed...

https://twitter.com/LottOnBaseball/stat ... 3102637056

[dagger]

$15 million for Johnson as a tender? That's stomach churning. I wonder how much talent that might buy at another position, like 2B.

[BigLeagueChew]

$15 million for Johnson as a tender? That's stomach churning. I wonder how much talent that might buy at another position, like 2B.

It would get a good second baseman but we still need to pitch better. I don't mind a one year deal for Johnson. He's shown that he is capable of a 3-4 ERA before and the hope is that he returns to that form next year bringing him back. A one year deal at $15 million isn't all that bad if you believe he can return closer to what his career numbers indicate instead of an ERA above 5.

The part that I don't understand is why he would make more next year instead of less. I'd still bring him back for one year though.

[Raptor_Guy]

I'm confused, why does he automatically get a $15 million contract considering how bad he's been? If he were 0-9 with a 8.50 ERA would he still get that $15 million?

[flatjacket1]

$15 million for Johnson as a tender? That's stomach churning. I wonder how much talent that might buy at another position, like 2B.

I think its clear that the cost of a front of the rotation starter is far greater than a 2B.

We are like 11th in runs scored and 29th in starters ERA.

I think the problem is quite clear.

Between 2010 and 2012, Josh Johnson had 68 starts. Over those starts, he had a lower ERA than Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, David Price, R.A. Dickey, Matt Cain, Johnny Cueto, Cole Hamels and everybody else not named Verlander, Weaver and Kershaw.

He is also 4th over that period in FIP.

If you look at his unsustainable HR/FB rate, you will all see that even if he started throwing batting practice he'd likely see an improvement in how many balls leave the yard.

Also I don't see how you like Morrow more. A worse history, similar amount of injuries and if you take out JJ's last start, his ERA was 4.6 through 11 starts. That 12th start I took out? He threw strikes, struck out a lot, got groundballs, everything you ask of a starter to be successful. Through those 11 starts, he was within .04 ERA of Jon Lester.

Clay Buchholz posted an ERA of 4.56 on the season in 2012, similar to what JJ had through his first 11 starts. At the AS break, he had an ERA of 5.53, half an ERA higher than JJ. He went on to pitch a 3.76 ERA in the second half, and a 1.71 ERA this year.

I'm not saying he will follow that path, but I'm saying giving up on a guy with past success like he has at his age is absurd.

I'd still extend him like 3-4 years right now if I could, 45-60M with the last year being an option. This is a classic buy low scenario. I know everybody says "buy low, sell high" but a lot of people fail to recognize when a beautiful situation like this arises. You don't trade a guy after he experiences his worst start to the season in years, you hang on to him a bit. Even if you don't want to extend him, somebody will take a 15M flier on the former ERA champion with decent peripherals. If they don't you have a 180 IP 4.5 ERA pitcher that you are overpaying by maybe 33%, and that's assuming he has a 0% chance of rebounding and regaining value.

We lined up ourselves beautiful with Johnson. We can elect to either get a pick or retain him another year on a 1 year contract to see if there is a chance of rebound. Trading him makes a little bit of sense too, if the right deal arises.

[satyr9]

I'm confused, why does he automatically get a $15 million contract considering how bad he's been? If he were 0-9 with a 8.50 ERA would he still get that $15 million?

The Jays will likely tender JJ because if they tender and he signs elsewhere they get pick compensation for a FA leaving. If you don't tender that number (thought it was projected more like 13m, but whatever) then you get nothing when they walk. He doesn't automatically get it, but I think most assume the Jays would tender JJ.

Also, because he's been so bad I'm assuming there aren't any offers equal to the value of the first rounder if he leaves. Because the tender only nets compensation if the player is on your squad for the whole season, anyone picking him up for the stretch run won't get anything if he walks, so some of the value you used to get in trade for bigger names has disappeared in the new CBA.

All I know is I was so **** psyched when we got him. He was my pie in the sky addition to head up the rotation. Obviously there are better, but he was the best I saw as even remotely available. I can't believe how much he's shat the bed.

[Mak]

His stats last year in Florida were not that impressive but I thought a free agent year would make him outperform. Some NL team will over pay but at this point 10m per year seems like overpaying. Most disappointing player this year?

[Randle McMurphy]

You're not going to get a much better deal for pitching in the offseason than Josh Johnson for 1 year/15M. I would doubt he'd take it, but I guess it all depends on how he finishes this season.

[flatjacket1]

His stats last year in Florida were not that impressive but I thought a free agent year would make him outperform. Some NL team will over pay but at this point 10m per year seems like overpaying. Most disappointing player this year?

That's why most people use a 3 year sample size when analysing data. Using 12 starts to determine anything in laughable.

When you allow 18 ER in 3 starts, you are going to have a hard time finding people who like you. People will tend to ignore the fact every single time other than 2 of those 3 starts he went 5+, and has lost 3 games allowing 4 ER over 19 innings of work.

In his 7 games with 3 ER or less, he has recorded 0 wins. 44.1 innings with 12 ER's over that stretch. 2.45 ERA in 7 games with no wins to show for it.

He has had 3 terrible games this year.

But again, I don't see the logic in reading into 12 starts. Everybody short of HOFers go through rough 12 game (3 game) stretches.

[Michael Bradley]

I've been saying for weeks, JJ is likely to accept arbitration, unless he feels some team will give him a long-term deal after an injury-shortened mediocre season (possible, but not likely). Taking 1/$15M from Toronto means he gets paid for a year and has a chance to recoup his value to enter the market the following winter.

If he goes on to have an epic 2nd half, then all bets are off, but if he keeps up his inconsistent pitching, I would imagine he is back next year.

[Santoki]

I'm confused, why does he automatically get a $15 million contract considering how bad he's been? If he were 0-9 with a 8.50 ERA would he still get that $15 million?

Anyone want to take a stab at this? I've never really understood why the QO is so high for guys coming off pretty average years. Is it based off number of years of service + stats used in arbitration? I remember KJ getting about $8-10 million after a pretty piss poor year. Baseball salaries are way out of whack...

[flatjacket1]

I'm confused, why does he automatically get a $15 million contract considering how bad he's been? If he were 0-9 with a 8.50 ERA would he still get that $15 million?

Anyone want to take a stab at this? I've never really understood why the QO is so high for guys coming off pretty average years. Is it based off number of years of service + stats used in arbitration? I remember KJ getting about $8-10 million after a pretty piss poor year. Baseball salaries are way out of whack...

The system has recently changed. Players used to qualify for either Type A or Type B free agent, and this process was based on stats. Then smart GM's like AA used to just hoard mediocre players and let them walk, offering crappy arbitration numbers, claiming multiple picks in the sandwhich rounds.

Anyways, this new system means somebody needs to meet a more specific criteria to enable draft pick compensation.

a) You must play/be affiliated with the same team for a year. No more trading at the deadline for guys and then claiming picks if they leave. This made rentals significantly more wasteful as there is no safety net.
b) The top 125 salaries in the league are averaged out, and that is the magic number a team needs to offer in arbitration to qualify for a sandwhich pick as well as a pick from the team signing the player, unless it is a top 10 pick (top 10 protected) in which case the team receives a second round pick.

This number in 2012 was 13.3M. It was inevitably rise on a year to year basis. This is the mark in which we need to offer any player to receive draft pick compensation.

Basically the new first round supplemental is filled with competitive balance picks (teams with low revenue) and the few players that qualify for this new system. There are very few picks in the supplemental round now compared to before.

So we have to offer JJ around 15M, and he has to say no to get draft pick compensation. I wouldn't worry about him saying yes, if he continues at this pace (repeats 1st half performance) he will be in line for a multi-year contract from somebody, especially considering how rare front of the rotation starters have become, and how he has the potential still to be one, even with 1 bad year.

[flatjacket1]

I've been saying for weeks, JJ is likely to accept arbitration, unless he feels some team will give him a long-term deal after an injury-shortened mediocre season (possible, but not likely). Taking 1/$15M from Toronto means he gets paid for a year and has a chance to recoup his value to enter the market the following winter.

If he goes on to have an epic 2nd half, then all bets are off, but if he keeps up his inconsistent pitching, I would imagine he is back next year.

He won't unless he does worse. 14 starts with 3 or less ER's after being the 4th best pitcher in the league over 2010-2012 will get you somewhere.

We keep forgetting how much we gave up for 1 year of Dickey (we signed him for market value after the 1st year, so he was a rental when we acquired him as he got a huge raise).

Anybody who has the potential to be a front of the rotation starter will go high in FA.

[Schad]

Wouldn't say that he'd automatically refuse the QO. It really depends on his -- and his agent's, natch -- appetite for risk. If they think that he can get $14m AAV over five years on the market, I'm sure that they opt out. If they think that teams might be hesitant to go beyond three years given his health woes, it might make more sense to gamble on a big 2014 that gets him a contract spanning the remainder of his prime.

[SharoneWright]

I'd probably favour trading him.

Too injured, and too scared to throw his fastball to AL lineups.

Hutch and Drabek come back next year, and Johnson will require significant kwan.

Let's get a couple assest back if possible.

Can still go after other FA's.

[Avenger]

I've been saying for weeks, JJ is likely to accept arbitration, unless he feels some team will give him a long-term deal after an injury-shortened mediocre season (possible, but not likely). Taking 1/$15M from Toronto means he gets paid for a year and has a chance to recoup his value to enter the market the following winter.

If he goes on to have an epic 2nd half, then all bets are off, but if he keeps up his inconsistent pitching, I would imagine he is back next year.

Johnson's not gonna take the arbitration offer, almost no chance of that imo. Teams aren't paying attention to ERA anymore, he doesn't worry about the market focusing too much on that. Johnson's peripherals look good and his velocity has stopped declining which was my big worry coming in to the season. Look at Liriano who got a relatively generous contract considering he put up an ERA over 5 two years running and there are plenty of other example where teams are paying more attention to track record, health and pure talent more than recent ERA numbers. Someone's gonna pay JJ and with his injury history, he'll play it safe and take the money.

[Michael Bradley]

I've been saying for weeks, JJ is likely to accept arbitration, unless he feels some team will give him a long-term deal after an injury-shortened mediocre season (possible, but not likely). Taking 1/$15M from Toronto means he gets paid for a year and has a chance to recoup his value to enter the market the following winter.

If he goes on to have an epic 2nd half, then all bets are off, but if he keeps up his inconsistent pitching, I would imagine he is back next year.

Johnson's not gonna take the arbitration offer, almost no chance of that imo. Teams aren't paying attention to ERA anymore, he doesn't worry about the market focusing too much on that. Johnson's peripherals look good and his velocity has stopped declining which was my big worry coming in to the season. Look at Liriano who got a relatively generous contract considering he put up an ERA over 5 two years running and there are plenty of other example where teams are paying more attention to track record, health and pure talent more than recent ERA numbers. Someone's gonna pay JJ and with his injury history, he'll play it safe and take the money.

It depends on a few things: 1) what type of 2nd half he has, 2) what type of advise he gets, 3) whether teams are willing to pay him the dollars/years that he wants coming off a down season, and 4) if he feels he can get more by waiting.

Johnson is a guy that could get a HUGE contract. He is not going to sign a two year deal. He will want 6-7 years and $15-20M per. The question is, will a team give him that contact coming off a season in which he figures to have ~150 IP, a less than stellar ERA, and gopher ball-itis? Not to mention giving up a 1st round pick for him. In Johnson's POV, will he even want to enter the market coming off his worst pro season?

It would not surprise me at all if Johnson's agent tells him to take the 1/15 contract and try to improve his value next winter. Obviously if he has a great 2nd half this season and/or a team is willing to pay him based on rep alone, then all that is out the window, but it's not a guarantee, IMO.

[flatjacket1]

I'd probably favour trading him.

Too injured, and too scared to throw his fastball to AL lineups.

Hutch and Drabek come back next year, and Johnson will require significant kwan.

Let's get a couple assest back if possible.

Can still go after other FA's.

Trading him seems foolish. We wouldn't get anything close to the Zach Grienke package the Angels gave up, which was only 1 top 50 prospect, the clubs 7th and 14th prospects. We would likely end up receiving something like a 10th and a 15th prospect for him, especially because most contenders wouldn't want a guy who put up a 5 ERA in the first half, but rather middling teams looking for a buy low (which this is a great example of a buy low.

Imagine getting John Stilson and Kevin Pillar for JJ. (similar ranked prospects on our team) What a waste that is.

I vote if we do trade Josh Johnson, we look for a buy low guy, like you know, 5 ERA, 7 starts with 3 ER or less, etc etc. That sure does sound a lot like Johnson.

Personally I'd rather the pick we get if he leaves over whatever low level prospects we get back.

[Schad]

I'd take the draft pick as well; beyond the pick itself, it'd increase what should already be a rather large bonus pool, which would provide a tonne of options. A three-month rental of a guy with a big salary and poor results wouldn't bring back much, and we need to restock the farm system.

That said, teams have become increasingly unwilling to ship picks for comp FAs in recent years; BJ Upton signed after a month or thereabouts, but others have spent a considerable amount of time twisting in the wind, waiting for offers. It's not a fait accompli that Johnson walks, but I'm okay with having him for another year.