Who's going for the playoffs, and who's tanking?

[theBigLip]

Who's going for the playoffs and who's tanking?

That is the question. And a corollary question, when will these teams realize what they are doing?

Why am I asking this? Since Stuckey and CV are starting the year with us, that is a whole lot of expiring dollars. And even though we keep coming up with trades that we can pull off BEFORE the season starts, I think a bit of patience will help and we need to keep these expiring deals for the trade deadline.

So even if teams think they are going for the playoffs, they might change their mind as their season crumbles in the first half, and become possible trade partners. So my question is what teams will we be able to work with at the trade deadline, and more specifically, what players will be available?

The ideal candidate will be a 1,2 or 3, on a large, long contract, who is on a team that is going nowhere. Yes, Rondo seems to fit this criteria. And trading for him at the trade deadline makes more sense than trying to do it now. So what other teams/players should we be waiting on?

[Piston Pete]

Pretty sure we are making a playoff push.

1) Signing JSmoove to a 4-year deal
2) Signing Datome to a 2-year deal
3) Signing Billups to a 2-year deal

If we were in tank mode, we would have done none of the above and our eventual signings would have been 1-year deals to push all the cap space out towards next offseason.

Players who might be made available: Joe Johnson, Eric Gordon, Rondo, Gay, (Barnes or Iggy) --- basically the same names we've all been talking about all offseason.

[joeposh]

If things fall apart by mid-season (which I don't anticipate), we'll already be too late to the tank party for it to matter. Chances are teams like Boston, Toronto, Phoenix, Utah, Philly and Charlotte will already be anchored in the slums, with a few other additions who just aren't playing well (Orlando). If we fall outside of the top 8, we have to give our pick to CHA anyway, and we have never been able to commit to the tank like other franchises.

We're better off working through it and developing our players, hoping for a late playoff seed to crumble just as we find our footing.

[ImHeisenberg]

I thought the Cavs would be tanking, but they signed Andrew Bynum (phantom tanking?)

Wizards are looking to make the post season.

Celtics are probably tanking.

Hawks looking to stay in the playoffs (why?)

Orlando is going Tank Hard.

Milwaukee, not sure, they don't necessarily look like they're tanking but not going to win much.

Toronto will try to win, and lose a lot.

And, the usual suspects, the Heat, Pacers, Nets, Knicks, and Bulls are a lock for the post season.

[theBigLip]

Pretty sure we are making a playoff push.

1) Signing JSmoove to a 4-year deal
2) Signing Datome to a 2-year deal
3) Signing Billups to a 2-year deal

If we were in tank mode, we would have done none of the above and our eventual signings would have been 1-year deals to push all the cap space out towards next offseason.

Players who might be made available: Joe Johnson, Eric Gordon, Rondo, Gay, (Barnes or Iggy) --- basically the same names we've all been talking about all offseason.

Agreed - we are absolutely pushing for the playoffs and maybe even into the second round. I was thinking that was assumed, and the question is, who is going to be our trade partner to dump Stuckey and CV on at the trade deadline.

[Brapman]

Philly is tanking as hard as any team I've ever seen. Noel won't even play until mid-season, and he wasn't at all ready anyway. And MCW will be a trainwreck because he's such a horrible shooter -- if that guy becomes a top PG, which really is possible in time, it will only be because he had the mental toughness to survive a horrible team and being pretty bad himself in year 1.

Boston was on its way to being really bad, but Olynyk might be very strong in year 1. It kindof depends on when they get Rondo back at full strength.

Charlotte seems improved to me: Jefferson is a top flight offensive big man, surrounded by Zeller and Biyombo and MKG gives them a very interesting group up front. I think they're a lottery team, but they might surprise.

Phoenix might be a prime tanking team. And the Lakers have a chance to be horrible.

[theBigLip]

Yikes - when you look at all the teams, there are only a few that are really going to try to win

Miami
Oklahoma City
San Antonio
LA Clippers
Brooklyn
Golden State
New York
Houston
Chicago
Memphis
Indiana
Detroit

And even within those teams, there may be a few possible trade deadline deals available for us - Deng and Granger, although they wouldn't be looking for cap relief in those situations. So I'll drop these teams from the list of homes for CV and Stuckey.

[theBigLip]

The real tankers. A few surprising teams. Lakers and Denver are going to try, but they are going to need to rebuild a bit (Denver less so). I guess I could argue that Washington and New Orleans are really going to try and win this year, just as much as the Pistons are.

Denver
LA Lakers
Atlanta
Utah
Boston
Dallas
Milwaukee
Philadelphia
Toronto
Portland
Minnesota
Washington
Sacramento
New Orleans
Phoenix
Cleveland
Charlotte
Orlando

[The Penguin]

East
Philly is blatantly tanking.
I'd have to believe Toronto is at least a little bit tanking with Wiggins being Canadian.
I expect Boston to keep saying "we aren't tanking" but Rondo will another Rose type situation.
Orlando is an interesting one as they were 12-13 at December 19th last year then went 8-49 the rest of the way.
Milwaukee looks like they are going to struggle.
I think Charlotte thinks they have a playoff chance, same for Cleveland & Washington.

West
Utah is "playing the youth" which is usually code for "we are stockpiling young assets and being terrible wouldn't be the worst thing"
Phoenix is going to be terrible



Utah is interesting, if they landed Wiggins they'd have Kanter/Favors/Wiggins/Hayward/Burks/Burke.

[Clarity]

The real tankers. A few surprising teams. Lakers and Denver are going to try, but they are going to need to rebuild a bit (Denver less so). I guess I could argue that Washington and New Orleans are really going to try and win this year, just as much as the Pistons are.

Denver
LA Lakers
Atlanta
Utah
Boston
Dallas
Milwaukee
Philadelphia
Toronto
Portland
Minnesota
Washington
Sacramento
New Orleans
Phoenix
Cleveland
Charlotte
Orlando

Wash, Clev, Port, Den, & prob the Lakers will make the playoffs if healthy.

NO, Minn, Toronto, Dallas, Utah & Atlanta will all win above 35 games if healthy.

The Wiggins/Parker/Randle sweepsteaks will really come down to Orlando, Char, Phx, Sac, Philly, Milwaukee or Boston.

[DCintheD]

I thought the Cavs would be tanking, but they signed Andrew Bynum (phantom tanking?)

don't be fooled by the best

[theBigLip]

Trade targets:
Boston - Rondo, Green?
Dallas - none
Milwaukee - Ilyasova?
Philadelphia - Turner?
Toronto - Gay, DeRozan?
Portland - Batum Probably not tanking or worried about $$$
Minnesota - Love Budinger?
Washington - none
Sacramento - ugh, none
New Orleans - probably not tanking, but Gordon
Phoenix - Dragic?
Cleveland - none
Charlotte - none
Orlando - Afflalo

[Clarity]

Trade targets:
Boston - Rondo, Green?
Dallas - none
Milwaukee - Ilyasova?
Philadelphia - Turner?
Toronto - Gay, DeRozan?
Portland - Batum Probably not tanking or worried about $$$
Minnesota - Love Budinger?
Washington - none
Sacramento - ugh, none
New Orleans - probably not tanking, but Gordon
Phoenix - Dragic?
Cleveland - none
Charlotte - none
Orlando - Afflalo

The only ones on this list that make even a little sense are Rondo (self explanatory, no beating of the dead horse necessary), Gay (not much sense now w/ Josh at the 3), Afflalo, or Turner & Bos & Tor already turned down our offers or asked for an untouchable player which wont happen. Afflalo & Turner arent needle movers.

[theBigLip]

Trade targets:
Boston - Rondo, Green?
Dallas - none
Milwaukee - Ilyasova?
Philadelphia - Turner?
Toronto - Gay, DeRozan?
Portland - Batum Probably not tanking or worried about $$$
Minnesota - Love Budinger?
Washington - none
Sacramento - ugh, none
New Orleans - probably not tanking, but Gordon
Phoenix - Dragic?
Cleveland - none
Charlotte - none
Orlando - Afflalo

The only ones on this list that make even a little sense are Rondo (self explanatory, no beating of the dead horse necessary), Gay (not much sense now w/ Josh at the 3), Afflalo, or Turner & Bos & Tor already turned down our offers or asked for an untouchable player which wont happen. Afflalo & Turner arent needle movers.

I think Afflalo and Turner would help, and they may be our only options in Feb, but I wish there was a more significant opportunity for us to use our capspace.

[Brapman]

Joe stayed patient and added Smith, Datome, Bynum, Billups, KCP, Mitchell in one offseason, so far.

It's not possible to say who we'll end up with, but far from the panic sticken cries of Pistons fans who thought we wouldn't do anything, we did a lot. There's no reason to think that the team cannot make significant trades yet this season with STuckey and CV's expirings, and some nicely priced good potential youngsters on our roster. Plus we have about $15 million of cap space next summer.

We're a couple years from contending because we are building with great, but very young, talent. We can wait for another 6-12 months before other big pieces are added. In the meantime, we have a chance to evaluate what we've got.

[Clarity]

I think Afflalo and Turner would help, and they may be our only options in Feb, but I wish there was a more significant opportunity for us to use our capspace.

Help, yes. Move the needle significantly, not likely.

I think come Feb there will be more opportunity than we may think.