The 2013 NBA Free Agency Thread

[Kanyewest]

The Maynor/Robinson is an interesting discussion especially since they were both teammates at OKC. Maynor was ahead of Robinson on the depth chart. Since Maynor has had his knee surgery, Robinson has filled up the stat sheet with Golden State and Chicago.

[hands11]

His only 2 other years were his first 2 years in the NBA. A lot of good NBA PG's stunk in their 1st 2 years. I'd treat this like his 3rd year.

That's how I see it.

As long as he can run the offense well, it should be a good upgrade because that will really help the second unit and allow Wall to play off the ball some.

Its really all about Wall this year. If he explodes, the Wizards will explode.

There are enough solid pieces on the team now to have that happen. And since Wall is a true PG, when he get better, lots of players are going to get better.

[hands11]

That a minimum-salary big man who would be a more than adequate backup center for any team could clear waivers would seem like the latest exhibit in what a crappy job NBA teams do when it comes to player evaluation and asset allocation. James is better, for example, than Kendrick Perkins, who's likely to remain the starter in OKC at a salary ~$8 million higher.

The Wizards could definitely use James.

The age thing is irrelevant because they shouldn't view James as a long-term developmental asset. He's a guy you sign to be a backup for a year or two until you can find someone better. If he's a good guy, maybe you keep him around even further down the bench for longer.

The only reason not to pick up a cheap and reasonably productive big man like James (especially at the minimum) is if there's some off-court issue that makes him not worth the trouble. Especially if you're a team like the Wizards and you need some frontcourt help.

Right now, it looks like they're relying on Booker plus at least one of the Vesely, Singleton and Seraphin to break through next season. I think they should be pushing those guys to develop this summer, but that they shouldn't be planning for any of them to make a major leap. If they do, it's gravy. And, if they do, a guy like James can simply be pushed further down the bench. Or released -- it's only a minimum salary.

Really, any team in the league could use a player like James on their bench at the league minimum.

Speaking of Jameses. Any rumors to discussions about bringing back James Singleton? We need a depth big man who can rebound and shoot... and, whatever his limitations, we almost always play better when he is on the team.

Would the minimum with a guarantee be enough to get it done? Or have I missed something? Has he signed elsewhere?

Except that he rejected a min deal last time and that is why he isn't here. That and he wanted minutes.

[jivelikenice]

We could have come out of this offseason with Nerlens Noel, Martell Webster and Nate Robinson. Our roster would have been in pretty good shape for the near term and long term. Instead, we get Porter, Webster and Maynor. Redundant at the wings, lousy at backup PG, and we have not addressed our future frontcourt.

This would have been a sweet lineup:

PG Wall/Robinson
SG Beal/Robinson/Rice
SF Webster/Ariza
PF Nene/Seraphin
C Okafor/Noel

I think Ernie made a mistake in rushing to sign Maynor. It was an odd rush signing. There would have been no harm in waiting. My guess; Ernie offered that deal to a group of pgs (including Nate) and the first one to say yes got the deal. That being said we still don't know if Nate would have chosen the BI-annual here versus Denver. I also read where he expressed a desire to go back to NY so we just don't know what he communicated to our FO at the start of FA. Nonetheless Ernie should have waited.

But as to your points on Otto v Noels....this is a simple case of Noels benefitting from not even playing and Otto being judged off two bad SL games. If he had finished it off with a couple of solid outing which I think would have happened based on Rice's improvement, this wouldn't be a discussion. And I may be wrong but I think you even commented that you don't make draft picks based on guys like Martell and Ariza (Think you said this but not positive).

Dat, I don't think the mistake was drafting Otto and re-signing Webster. I think it was not having a deal in place to trade Ariza on draft night or the moment we re-signed Martell.

In regards to the front court piece of the future, i don't get the angst. It wasn't going to happen until next offseason. I don't know if Ted will authorize them to make a bold move, but in some fashion or another a front course piece will be added either though FA or a trade next summer. I'm hoping we try to make a splash, but I expect us to settle for a B level player.

Getting Blair would really change a lot of perceptions of the offseason though. A top 9 of Wall Beal, Martell, Otto, Néne, Okafor. Ariza, Otto, Blair, and Maynor would be solid.

[tontoz]

We could have come out of this offseason with Nerlens Noel, Martell Webster and Nate Robinson. Our roster would have been in pretty good shape for the near term and long term. Instead, we get Porter, Webster and Maynor. Redundant at the wings, lousy at backup PG, and we have not addressed our future frontcourt.

This would have been a sweet lineup:

PG Wall/Robinson
SG Beal/Robinson/Rice
SF Webster/Ariza
PF Nene/Seraphin
C Okafor/Noel

I think Ernie made a mistake in rushing to sign Maynor. It was an odd rush signing. There would have been no harm in waiting. My guess; Ernie offered that deal to a group of pgs (including Nate) and the first one to say yes got the deal. That being said we still don't know if Nate would have chosen the BI-annual here versus Denver. I also read where he expressed a desire to go back to NY so we just don't know what he communicated to our FO at the start of FA. Nonetheless Ernie should have waited.

But as to your points on Otto v Noels....this is a simple case of Noels benefitting from not even playing and Otto being judged off two bad SL games. If he had finished it off with a couple of solid outing which I think would have happened based on Rice's improvement, this wouldn't be a discussion. And I may be wrong but I think you even commented that you don't make draft picks based on guys like Martell and Ariza (Think you said this but not positive).

Dat, I don't think the mistake was drafting Otto and re-signing Webster. I think it was not having a deal in place to trade Ariza on draft night or the moment we re-signed Martell.

In regards to the front court piece of the future, i don't get the angst. It wasn't going to happen until next offseason. I don't know if Ted will authorize them to make a bold move, but in some fashion or another a front course piece will be added either though FA or a trade next summer. I'm hoping we try to make a splash, but I expect us to settle for a B level player.

Getting Blair would really change a lot of perceptions of the offseason though. A top 9 of Wall Beal, Martell, Otto, Néne, Okafor. Ariza, Otto, Blair, and Maynor would be solid.

That is what many of us said on the day of the news. What is the rush to sign a scrub?

This just shows why you need to be patient. I would take Robinson easily over Maynor or Webster.

[LyricalRico]

Dat, I don't think the mistake was drafting Otto and re-signing Webster. I think it was not having a deal in place to trade Ariza on draft night or the moment we re-signed Martell.

In regards to the front court piece of the future, i don't get the angst. It wasn't going to happen until next offseason. I don't know if Ted will authorize them to make a bold move, but in some fashion or another a front course piece will be added either though FA or a trade next summer.

Bingo. Agree with both of these points. I still expect there to be some type of Ariza trade, or at least I'm hoping for one. There's still a lot of offseason left, so let's see how it plays out.

Also, making a big move (or a move for a big) in 2014 was always the plan, and that's still on track. We're projecting to be a young team coming off a playoff appearance and having significant cap space. Hard to not see that as being in a good position IMO.

[Dat2U]

I don't know if drafting Otto was a mistake. All I know if doctors told me that Noel was clear to make a full recovery, he would have been my choice over Otto. To me, the mistake might not be drafting Otto (who I liked of course), it might be keeping both Webster & Ariza on the roster, leaving the 3rd overall pick, 3rd on the depth chart and potentially out of the rotation. I'm just still hoping Ariza gets dealt before it's all said & done.

[Rafael122]

I don't know if drafting Otto was a mistake. All I know if doctors told me that Noel was clear to make a full recovery, he would have been my choice over Otto. To me, the mistake might not be drafting Otto (who I liked of course), it might be keeping both Webster & Ariza on the roster, leaving the 3rd overall pick, 3rd on the depth chart and potentially out of the rotation. I'm just still hoping Ariza gets dealt before it's all said & done.

It could be one of those situations where:

a) Ernie is waiting to see the market finally settle down and he'll take a look at the other 29 NBA rosters to see if a trade can be done.

or

b) He's going to wait until the trade deadline. If the Wizards are making that push, he'll keep Ariza and let him walk next offseason.

I think he'll go with B and worse case scenario is he makes a trade that eats into our cap space next season, IMO.

[fishercob]

I don't know if drafting Otto was a mistake. All I know if doctors told me that Noel was clear to make a full recovery, he would have been my choice over Otto. To me, the mistake might not be drafting Otto (who I liked of course), it might be keeping both Webster & Ariza on the roster, leaving the 3rd overall pick, 3rd on the depth chart and potentially out of the rotation. I'm just still hoping Ariza gets dealt before it's all said & done.

Ariza will be gone when it's all said and done -- it's just a matter of when. Unlikely before the season at this point; maybe by the deadline; definitely by next summer. I have no problem with bringing Porter along slowly

To that end, Wizards Xtra did a piece on expectations for a "successful" rookie campaign for Porter.

Using George and Leonard’s stats as a blueprint, a rookie season average of 9ppg, 4rpg, an assist and a steal while shooting 35% from three would be more than sufficient in my opinion. Some Wizards fans might be upset with this production but if we use these stats as a guide and compensate for development with increased responsibility, then his stats will naturally increase similarly to George and Leonard. In his sophomore season, expect small increases but for his third season, the pressure will be on to identify whether he is capable of being an All-Star or just a supremely good DTA – something Kawhi Leonard is going to be judged upon in this upcoming season.

[Nivek]

The Wizards misplayed their hand when they struck quick to "lock up" Maynor. It would have been a bad move all by itself, even if these other PGs had signed MLE deals. That they're signing for the BAE (and less) just highlights how poorly conceived their off-season strategy was.

Just for kicks, here's the PPA for Maynor and for the other backups who have signed recently (average = 100, higher is better; replacement level = 45):

Maynor -- 32
Maynor (last healthy season) -- 57
Collison -- 116
Robinson -- 105
Price -- 84
Temple -- 60

Maybe Ernie had a vacation scheduled and wanted to get "sign backup PG" off the "honey do" list Ted gave him when the season ended.

[dckingsfan]

Or similar looking at PER - probably a good idea given the defensively challenged Wizards...

Maynor -- 10.6
Collison -- 16.3
Robinson -- 17.4
Price -- 12.4
Temple -- 8.8

We chose the worst two

[hands11]

The Wizards misplayed their hand when they struck quick to "lock up" Maynor. It would have been a bad move all by itself, even if these other PGs had signed MLE deals. That they're signing for the BAE (and less) just highlights how poorly conceived their off-season strategy was.

Just for kicks, here's the PPA for Maynor and for the other backups who have signed recently (average = 100, higher is better; replacement level = 45):

Maynor -- 32
Maynor (last healthy season) -- 57
Collison -- 116
Robinson -- 105
Price -- 84
Temple -- 60

Maybe Ernie had a vacation scheduled and wanted to get "sign backup PG" off the "honey do" list Ted gave him when the season ended.

Price really wasn't that great at running the offense. He did his best work once Wall returned and he was playing more like a SG at PG.

Wizards wanted a back up that could run the team so as to make other players better.

Thats a harder stat to extract. Would have to run numbers using 5 man line up with and with out those players are PG. Something like that. AST% would be a decent number as well.

Plus Maynor has experience being on the floor and doing well with other star PGs like Wall.

Not sure if your PPA number captures everything that is needed to do a comparison. And we don't know that Nate or Collison wanted to sign here.

[dckingsfan]

Of course Witt likes defenders... so let's look at defensive win shares against minutes played...

Temple 1.5 1156 0.001297578
Robinson 2.4 2086 0.001150527
Price 1.2 1278 0.000938967
Collison 1.7 2372 0.000716695
Maynor 0.3 963 0.000311526

oops... Maynor still isn't the choice.

[Nivek]

Or similar looking at PER - probably a good idea given the defensively challenged Wizards...

Maynor -- 10.6
Collison -- 16.3
Robinson -- 17.4
Price -- 12.4
Temple -- 8.8

We chose the worst two

Actually, the Wizards were excellent defensively last season. One advantage of PPA vs. PER is that in PPA, I include defense.

To Price for a sec -- when he was on the floor last season, they scored 101.0 points per 100 possessions. When he was on the bench, they scored 101.1. They were 0.8 points per 100 possessions better defensively when he was on the floor. Neither difference is significant, which is perfectly fine for a backup PG. When Price was out there, the team at least didn't lose ground compared to what they did when other guys were playing.

[Nivek]

Of course Witt likes defenders... so let's look at defensive win shares against minutes played...

Temple 1.5 1156 0.001297578
Robinson 2.4 2086 0.001150527
Price 1.2 1278 0.000938967
Collison 1.7 2372 0.000716695
Maynor 0.3 963 0.000311526

oops... Maynor still isn't the choice.

Which is kinda funny because defensive win shares isn't a good stat.

For what it's worth, here are defensive ratings extracted from PPA. I'll just set it on the same 100 = average scale.

- Price -- 45
- Temple -- 89
- Collison -- 89
- Robinson -- 33
- Maynor -- 9

Those numbers are without a position adjustment. Bigs have a bigger defensive impact on average than guards. An 89 is a little above average for a PG.

[Dat2U]

The Wizards misplayed their hand when they struck quick to "lock up" Maynor. It would have been a bad move all by itself, even if these other PGs had signed MLE deals. That they're signing for the BAE (and less) just highlights how poorly conceived their off-season strategy was.

Just for kicks, here's the PPA for Maynor and for the other backups who have signed recently (average = 100, higher is better; replacement level = 45):

Maynor -- 32
Maynor (last healthy season) -- 57
Collison -- 116
Robinson -- 105
Price -- 84
Temple -- 60

Maybe Ernie had a vacation scheduled and wanted to get "sign backup PG" off the "honey do" list Ted gave him when the season ended.

Price really wasn't that great at running the offense. He did his best work once Wall returned and he was playing more like a SG at PG.

Wizards wanted a back up that could run the team so as to make other players better.

Thats a harder stat to extract. Would have to run numbers using 5 man line up with and with out those players are PG. Something like that. AST% would be a decent number as well.

Plus Maynor has experience being on the floor and doing well with other star PGs like Wall.

Not sure if your PPA number captures everything that is needed to do a comparison. And we don't know that Nate or Collison wanted to sign here.

You know what's harder to extract? Talent where it doesn't exist. Making guys like Vesely, Seraphin, Singleton & Booker look like competent NBA players is not going to be done by some scrub PG. To acquire a PG for that specific purposes borders on insanity. You want to make the bench better? Get better players and stop looking for "super smart" ways to save devalued assets that simply need to be dumped at this stage.

[FAH1223]

Which is kinda funny because defensive win shares isn't a good stat.

For what it's worth, here are defensive ratings extracted from PPA. I'll just set it on the same 100 = average scale.

- Price -- 45
- Temple -- 89
- Collison -- 89
- Robinson -- 33
- Maynor -- 9

Those numbers are without a position adjustment. Bigs have a bigger defensive impact on average than guards. An 89 is a little above average for a PG.

Wow. Collison above average defensively...

[Nivek]

Which is kinda funny because defensive win shares isn't a good stat.

For what it's worth, here are defensive ratings extracted from PPA. I'll just set it on the same 100 = average scale.

- Price -- 45
- Temple -- 89
- Collison -- 89
- Robinson -- 33
- Maynor -- 9

Those numbers are without a position adjustment. Bigs have a bigger defensive impact on average than guards. An 89 is a little above average for a PG.

Wow. Collison above average defensively...

"A little" above average. Actually, as I look at it again, "average" is about right. For a PG.

[dckingsfan]

Of course Witt likes defenders... so let's look at defensive win shares against minutes played...

Temple 1.5 1156 0.001297578
Robinson 2.4 2086 0.001150527
Price 1.2 1278 0.000938967
Collison 1.7 2372 0.000716695
Maynor 0.3 963 0.000311526

oops... Maynor still isn't the choice.

Which is kinda funny because defensive win shares isn't a good stat.

For what it's worth, here are defensive ratings extracted from PPA. I'll just set it on the same 100 = average scale.

- Price -- 45
- Temple -- 89
- Collison -- 89
- Robinson -- 33
- Maynor -- 9

Those numbers are without a position adjustment. Bigs have a bigger defensive impact on average than guards. An 89 is a little above average for a PG.

Hmmm, something is wrong with that... as much as I don't like Temple, he is a much better defender than Collison... not even close. And Robinson is a better defender than Price.

[Nivek]

Temple "much better" than Collison on defense and Robinson "better" than Price -- based on what?

Their stats are similar -- rebounds and steals are the same. Temple blocks more shots, but also fouls more often. Opponent matchup stats are about the same -- maybe a slight advantage for Temple. About the only place where there's a clear difference in the numbers from last season was that the Wizards were very slightly better defensively when Temple was on the floor while Dallas was worse defensively when Collison was on the floor.

At best, it would like a slight advantage defensively for Temple.

Looking at Robinson and Price, rebounds and blocks are the same; Robinson gets more steals. Robinson also fouls a lot more -- a lot for a guard, period. Chicago was a bit worse defensively when Robinson was in the game, but still a little better than average. The Wizards were very good defensively with and without Price. Price actually comes out a little ahead if you look at counterpart stats, although I don't place much value on those numbers.

I don't see an advantage for Robinson here, unless you want to emphasize steals and discount the fouling.

I'm interested in your views, though. I've begun work on using the available numbers to improve the defense portion of PPA and I appreciate thoughtful input.