The Brandon Jennings Conundrum (Day 30)

[machu46]

When did Jackson suddenly become a great PG? He doesn't set anyone up and the drop off from Westbrook to Jackson is the reason OKC wasnt representing the West in the Finals. The majority of Thunder fans complained about Jackson's play being detrimental to the team during the playoffs because he was trying to take more shots than Durant once he got semi-comfortable on the floor.

Who said RJ was a great PG? Show me. I said much better than Bj. Don't have to be great to be better than BJ. He's had little PT and has lots of upside. Who knows if he realizes his potential or not? But like Bledsoe I prefer if possible a young guy that could pop over BJ who pooped.

If you're the guy I quoted (on my phone so I can't tell), you said you think we compete for a 5 seed if Jackson plays the way he did in the playoffs last year. He didn't do anything special in the playoffs last year.

[MrPerfect1]

Rudy Gay must have the Greatest PR Agent in the World.

Why do people want him on MIL? He is a worse version of Brandon Jennings and has 1 of the worst contracts in the NBA.

[AussieBuck]

:lol:

Felton 14/5/3 on .505 TS, 105 ortg 108 drtg 29yo: above average PG
Jennings 17/6 on .510 TS, 106 ortg 108 drtg 23yo: worst starting PG in NBA

You guys make a lot of sense.

Felton's one great half season in NY he was 16/8 on .524. He's really not very good.

Eh, not fat Felton is better than Jennings. If you could have Jennings pre-allstar break then Felton you'd have an average PG. Meh.

[eagle13]

When did Jackson suddenly become a great PG? He doesn't set anyone up and the drop off from Westbrook to Jackson is the reason OKC wasnt representing the West in the Finals. The majority of Thunder fans complained about Jackson's play being detrimental to the team during the playoffs because he was trying to take more shots than Durant once he got semi-comfortable on the floor.

Who said RJ was a great PG? Show me. I said much better than Bj. Don't have to be great to be better than BJ. He's had little PT and has lots of upside. Who knows if he realizes his potential or not? But like Bledsoe I prefer if possible a young guy that could pop over BJ who pooped.

If you're the guy I quoted (on my phone so I can't tell), you said you think we compete for a 5 seed if Jackson plays the way he did in the playoffs last year. He didn't do anything special in the playoffs last year.

That still didn't even come close too saying he was a great PG.

But his PO nbrs were pretty good-TS-581-/ PER-15-/ FG%-479-/ 3P%-30

I NEVER even implied he was a great PG. His PO nbrs were good, his PO performance had good and bad moments but was by NO means great. But he is very young w/ tons of upside. Your just a HATER

[eagle13]

Rudy Gay must have the Greatest PR Agent in the World.

Why do people want him on MIL? He is a worse version of Brandon Jennings and has 1 of the worst contracts in the NBA.

I agree his contract amount is awful and he has been an undisciplined shooter. But that's why he may be available. The contract has only 2 years left - in other words after next season it becomes a valuable asset as an expiring deal. As a player Drew might be able to work with him. He is a better player than Ellis. At 6'9 he's got good hght for his position (not undersized like ellis) and his nbrs are better than ellis'
-------TS-PER-FG%-3P%
Gay--513-18-450-34
Ellis-510-16-416-29

remember this is a win now scenario and there are few moves bucks could make as positively impactful as this

[Baddy Chuck]

I think those whole "an expiring deal is always an asset" couldn't be any farther from the truth. I don't think an expiring Rudy Gay is any more valuable then a Rudy Gay with 2 years on his contract. Do you realize the amount of pure **** you would need to take on to make a deal viable to get anything of value for Rudy Gay and his $18 million deal next year? I honestly think you'd be looking at taking on pure **** expiring, probably even taking **** salary past next season, to get an asset like a mid to late first. It would be much better served just keeping the pure cap space. Obviously there's the whole "our owner and gm are obviously idiots" thing so taking on Rudy Gay is always a possibility, but I can't imagine why any one fan would advocate such a deal.

[eagle13]

I think those whole "an expiring deal is always an asset" couldn't be any farther from the truth. I don't think an expiring Rudy Gay is any more valuable then a Rudy Gay with 2 years on his contract. Do you realize the amount of pure **** you would need to take on to make a deal viable to get anything of value for Rudy Gay and his $18 million deal next year? I honestly think you'd be looking at taking on pure **** expiring, probably even taking **** salary past next season, to get an asset like a mid to late first. It would be much better served just keeping the pure cap space. Obviously there's the whole "our owner and gm are obviously idiots" thing so taking on Rudy Gay is always a possibility, but I can't imagine why any one fan would advocate such a deal.

There is a huge difference between advocating and explaining. I advocated for Bledsoe and Wilson Chandler. All other trades are just possible routes following Kohl's mandate. And if you haven't noticed we've been actively clearing cap space. I'D PREFER TO SAVE IT FOR NEXT YEAR but I speculate with trades such as this one w/ Gay that Ham might make.

And I agree that expirings are less valuable these days but they can still be useful - if not Gay may play well under Drew and plays out his 2 years here.

[Baddy Chuck]

Wasn't really calling you out, there's a pretty significant number of people that actually want them to do that type of deal, which is nuts to me.

[MrPerfect1]

Brandon Jennings is better than Rudy Gay. People want to run Jennings out of town then replace him with a worse, higher paid version?????

[Max Green]

Hmmm... After the All-Star break last season Brandon averaged 16/7/3 with a .533 TS% while reducing his FGA/Usage. I'm not ready to give up on him just yet, let's see what Drew and NVE can do with him in a different system.

[Nebula1]

I wanted to take a quick look at Brandon Jennings' numbers and give a couple possible projections for the 13-14 season. Sorry for the long post.

All numbers taken from BR http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ibr01.html and listed by year.

Season / Age

09-10 / 20
10-11 / 21
11-12 / 22
12-13 / 23

FGA

14.8
14.7
17.0
15.6

PTS

15.5
16.2
19.1
17.5

TS%

.475
.493
.514
.510

AST

5.7
4.8
5.5
6.5

AST%

29.6
25.9
26.7
29.1


Assumptions

FTA static @ 3.6
TRB static @ 3.4
TOV static @ 2.4
STL static @ 1.5
FT% static @ .813


Plateaued 13-14 Season Projections

FGA = 16.3 (average between all time high and historical average)
PTS = 18.4 (average between all time high and historical average)
TS% = .514
AST = 6.6 (slight improvement based on YoY trend)
AST% = 29.5 (slight improvement based on YoY trend)


Upside 13-14 Season Projections

FGA = 15.5 (historical average)
PTS = 18.5 (modest improvement of 1.0 pts from 12-13 and 1.5 pts from historical average)
TS% = .541 (Jeff Teague was .543 under Drew at age 24 but with 12.2 FGA and 2.8 FTA)
AST = 6.9 (modest improvement of .4 from 12-13 and 1.2 from historical average)
AST% = 30.0 (modest improvement of .9 from 12-13 and 2.0 from historical average. Jeff Teague improved 11.8 at age 24)

reference: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... uje01.html

Upside Notes

I think it's possible we see at least modest improvement from Brandon Jennings in 13-14 similar to 10-11 to 11-12 due to financial motivation, personal motivation, Larry Drew improving Jeff Teague's game and general experience gained.

Despite a regression in 12-13 in some statistical categories, the overall YoY trend has been improving. TS% improved YoY 3 straight years before a slight regression, yet did not break .493 support. Similar trend for overall PTS. Assist categories regressed from Y1 to Y2 but have improved YoY since Y2 with overall AST totals surpassing Y1 all time high, which signals a breakout or maintained uptrend. AST% has improved YoY since Y2, but has yet to surpass Y1 all time high, which would signal a breakout.


Conclusions

If the improvements happen, Jennings projects as a potential breakout player at age 24:
TS% maintains uptrend and surpasses previous all time high, which signals breakout.
Total assists maintains uptrend and improves overall AST/TOV.
AST% maintains uptrend and surpasses previous all time high, which signals breakout.

I think the upside numbers are achievable for Jennings if properly motivated and with Larry Drew coaching.

However, if improvements don't happen and Jennings' has plateaued then he proves "he is what he is".

I do not think Jennings' regresses and plateau is worst case.



The bet is how motivated we see the player and if the coach can unlock the upside.

[HurricaneKid]

You think career highs across the board is a worst case scenario?

[LedZepp007]

I actually think Brandon will improve this year, given the construction of the team and the fact that we now have a coach that actually wants his team to play offense.

BTW, anybody else been surprised with how much we've seemed to come around on Drew? We were close to ritualistic suicide after his hiring and, now, we seem to view him pretty positively.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[raferfenix]

Gay and Mayo already failed as a tandem in Memphis.

Why try that again?

[eagle13]

One of many problems with bringing back BJ is he'll be sulking from day1 that he didn't get 12million and with a 3 year deal has zero motivation to have a good attitude.

[JayMKE]

Gay would be awful, no idea why anybody might want him.

I think Jennings will probably have a good year next year. On top of him playing for a contract, this team should fit together way better offensively and our coach actually runs a coherent offense.

[SwaggWagg]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnHndbNPYi0[/youtube]

[WiscoKing13]

don't know if it was posted, but BJ is putting on a bball camp in toronto this weekend

Please TOR offer him something.
also pray we get ross back.

[SwaggWagg]

don't know if it was posted, but BJ is putting on a bball camp in toronto this weekend

Please TOR offer him something.
also pray we get ross back.

Well he loves Toronto, but no thanks. He's awful!

[AussieBuck]

Nice post Nebs.