Rating AA's trades (long)

[user3000]

I decided to do a rating of AA's trades so far to see how he's fared as GM. I really like him but the disappointment of this season has some people calling for him to be fired which I don't think I would do. I want to do this analysis so I can get a better grasp of how he's fared. I'm only going to focus on trades which were at least a little bit significant, not every single minor transaction. I apologize in advance if I miss any, and/or if these trades are out of order but I tried my best.

I decided to rate the moves out of 5. Where:
1 = A move that was poorly executed with poor results, and would not have been made by an average GM in the same position
3= A move that was reasonable, and would be expected of an average GM
5= A spectacular move that netted positive results and would not have been made by most or all other GMs

2 and 4 obviously would be for moves which fell in between the above descriptions.

Trades:

2010
1. Halladay for D'Arnaud, Drabek, Wallace (via Taylor)
Grade 3/5
AA inherited a mess in the Halladay trade situation but receiving back just one useful player (TDA) for the best pitcher in the league can't be considered anything above average. TDA had use in trading for Dickey so I'll grant AA that but Drabek is a not so young anymore 25 and coming off a second surgery without any real major league success. Not getting back Dom Brown proved costly.

2. League for Morrow
Grade 4/5
This deal could have been a 5, and probably was for a time, but has to be downgraded with the latest news in the Morrow saga. Morrow has had up and down years for the Jays, but really only a good half season in 2012 to brag about. Now he's coming off a season ending injury and will be turning 30 next year. League meanwhile has had some useful years as a reliever since leaving town. Results on this trade have disappointed, but the process of trading a reliever for a top prospect starter type nets AA a 4/5.

3. Alex Gonzalez, Tyler Pastornicky, Tim Collins for Yunel Escobar and JoJo Reyes
Grade 4/5
Alex Gonzalez would never again reach the heights he had in his half season with the Jays, while Pastornicky hasn't contributed in the Majors yet. The only real loss was Tiny Tim who has gone on to become something of a useful reliever for the Royals. Yunel meanwhile had a fantastic 2011 with a solid offensive performance and great D. His performance fell in 2012 and of course culminated in the homophobic incident. As for AA, anytime you can trade some spare pieces and get a starting shortstop you've done well. Yunel's inconsistency and bad behaviour however downgrade this one to a 4.

4. Wallace for Gose
Grade 4/5
Am I being too harsh on this trade? Too optimistic? I really couldn't decide. Wallace has contributed less than nothing so far, but then again so has Gose. I'm giving AA a 4 because the idea of trading Thunder Thighs for a speedy good D centre fielder was a great idea. I just can't go to 5 for a player who probably will never hit his weight in the big leagues and may very well not even be on the Blue Jays when his time comes.

2011
1. Rajai Davis in for Farquhar and Magnuson
Grade 5/5
A useful outfielder for two not useful minor league relievers (and one of whom who altogether came back). Sounds good.

2. Miguel Olivo to Jays for cash.
Grade 5/5
The Jays would of course let Olivo leave and get a compensation draft pick. The pick turned out to be Dwight Smith, who is doing ok for far in the minors. This type of move would be made illegal in the next CBA because of AA.

3. Marcum for Lawrie
Grade 4/5
Again, is this ranking too low? Too high? Hard to exactly say at this point. Marcum was the Jay's top starter at the time, and went on to have two good seasons for the Brewers which helped them get to the playoffs. Lawrie on the otherhand has had ups and downs but still remains a top defensive talent at 3B with offensive potential. The off the field issues with Lawrie count too because that's part of why the Brewers traded him. If Lawrie becomes a star this is a 5/5, but for now it's not. Credit to AA for at least getting the teams #1 prospect this time.

4. Villaneuva to Jays for cash.
Grade 5/5
Anytime you can trade literally nothing and get a serviceable starter for two years, you've done well.

5. Vernon Wells for Mike Napoli, Juan Rivera
Grade 5/5
Belongs in the discussion for best trades of all-time.

6. Napoli for Frank Francisco
Grade 1/5
This trade is often lumped together with Vernon to make people forget about it, but holy crap what a bad move. From what I remember it had to do with getting a compensation draft pick a year earlier with Francisco but that's hardly justification. Napoli would still have returned a draft pick when he hit free agency, and he has proven to be a fantastic player. His 2011 was ridiculous, but even now he is doing just fine for the Red Sox. Easily AA's worst move so far, and also it's not like people didn't like Napoli. From what I remember many were upset at this trade even at the time it was made.

**A little note on the last two trade rankings: Is it fair that AA gets a cumulative 3/5 for unloading Vernon Wells? I have given this some thought and decided that yes it is. At the end of the day, trading away Napoli for nothing is almost as horrific as trading away Vernon was positive. The sting is lessened because Napoli never played for us, but just think of all the Lind, JPA, and other bad DH at bats that we would have been saved from. If you want to discount Napoli from the discussion, I still think a reasonable GM could have called up the Angels and given away Vernon Wells for nothing given how motivated the Angels clearly were...so thus, a 3/5 cumulative it is.

7. Rasmus + others to Toronto for Frasor, Stewart, Dotel, Rzep, Patterson
Grade 5/5
This trade might have been a 4/5 before this season, but Rasmus has finally busted out and become a star CF acquired for essentially garbage. The Vernon Wells dump gets more notoriety, but this actually might be my favourite AA move. I'm a prospect guy so I loved Rasmus from the moment he came.

8. Aaron Hill for Kelly Johnson
Grade 3/5
Yes Aaron Hill has been great since leaving Toronto, but let's face it he wasn't going to do it here and his contract was up. Kelly Johnson was about as fair value as you could get for Hill at the time and came with a better compensation draft pick, so a 3/5 it is (but you could talk me into a 2/5 if you force me to look at Hill's numbers a little more...ugh)

2012
1. Frasor returns for Daniel Webb and Myles Jaye
Grade 4/5
Do you remember those two prospects? Me neither. Frasor was a useful reliever who was reacquired for no name players.

2. Nestor Molina for Sergio Santos
Grade 4/5
Go look at Nestor Molina's minor league stats, I'll wait. Santos hasn't contributed much to the Jays in his injury plagued few years, but I suppose there's still some hope. AA still gets a good grade for trading an eventual bust prospect for a sort of MLB closer.

2013
1. Farrell for Mike Aviles
Grade 1/5
What a disaster. Farrell demands to leave, and gets traded for basically nothing in Aviles. The rating of 1 reflects AA's decision of hiring Farrell in the first place more so than the eventual trade return.

2. Esmil Rogers for Aviles and Yan Gomes
Grade 3/5
While I want to give AA credit for turning Farrell into Esmil "Staff Ace" Rogers, the truth is that Yan Gomes was a part of this trade too. Gomes has put up 1.6 WAR in half as many at bats as JPA has put up 0.3 WAR this season. As for who of Gomes and Rogers will be better in 5 years...who knows, so I'm calling this one even.

3. Reyes, Johnson, Buehrle, Bonifacio, Buck for Alvarez, Nicolino, Marisnick, Hechavarria, Desclafani and Mathis.
Grade 3/5
This one is hard because things can still change and hindsight is 20/20, but at this point you have to consider this trade no better than average. Reyes is still owed 86 million dollars, but he is at least performing exceptionally well. Johnson has been a disaster, who will have to be given that ~15 million dollar 1 year deal this season and may very well accept it. Buehrle has been a bit less than average, but drastically overpayed. And Bonifacio has also been a disaster. Meanwhile the Marlins have at least something to work with in Alvarez and Hech, and some bonafide prospects in a rejuvenated Marisnick, a solid Nicolino, and even Desclafani doing ok. I'll give AA credit for making the deal which was seen as fantastic at the time, and Reyes is nearly worth the prospects we gave up but the rating suffers due to poor results and overpayed players.

4. Syndergaard, TDA and Beccera for Dickey
Grade 1/5
Napoli was bad, but this trade takes the cake. Dickey has been pretty terrible, while Syndergaard has skyrocketed up prospect charts (even ranking 14 in the latest for MLB.com). TDA has only recently returned from injury, but remains a top prospect and is not named JP Arencibia. Not only is this trade bad now, but it was seen as pretty bad at the time as well. Jays fans were hoping for a Syndergaard + JPA package at the time, and I know I wasn't happy about the TDA/Syndergaard eventual price. The Mets GM wanted TDA and Syndergaard right from the start, and that's what he got. AA was desperate and it clouded his judgement. It seemed like too much to me for a player who had as many questions as Dickey...and look what happened. If the Jays were going to give up their top 2 prospects, I wanted the to look for a real Ace like David Price. This trade hurts.


Analysis and Conclusion

Overall grade: 64/90 = 3.56/5

So a 3.5 out of 5 indicates a GM who is slightly above what I would consider average in trades. But here's something else:

Overall grade BEFORE 2013: 56/70 = 4/5
And that's a grade which indicates a GM making moves which are consistently above average and put him in a class ahead of most GMs.

So what's my conclusion? AA was a damn good GM at trading before this season, but is on a horrible cold streak in 2013. There's also drafting and free agency where I think AA has done just fine. His drafts haven't beared much fruit yet but many of those prospects left in trade or are in the low levels. This was after all a minor league system which was considered top 3 before this season. And while AA's only big free agent name was a disappointment (Melky), he did do a great job scamming the system for draft picks in years prior.

I think it would be a mistake to let AA go after 2013. Yes this season has been a disaster, but AA has proven to be a genius in rebuilding a team, strong in trades, and willing to bend the rules to his favour. Let's not forget that the 2013 Jays were supposed to be World Series contenders, so it's not like everyone else wasn't fooled along with AA. If 2013 panned out as we all thought it would, AA would be getting a statue right next to Ted Rogers outside Skydome. I hope he gets another chance to build this thing and I'm really hoping he makes another trade soon so I can get the horrible taste of Dickey for TDA and Syndergaard out of my mouth.

So what do you think? Which ratings am I off on? Do you want to keep AA?

[zong]

TL;DR --> You're unhappy that our GM didn't fleece the other GM every time.

[user3000]

TL;DR --> You're unhappy that our GM didn't fleece the other GM every time.

You don't want to spend 5 minutes reading, that's fine. But I don't understand why you have to make an uninformed and incorrect comment.

[Hoopstarr]

TL;DR --> You're unhappy that our GM didn't fleece the other GM every time.

I've only skimmed it but it looks like a fair and favorable assessment. I agree with most of the individual grades. Caveats apply, of course, for trades that still can't be truly judged yet.

[freakoutguy]

One common theme that emerges with trades that AA has made for catchers is that he has always catered to JPA as the heir apparent. Trading Napoli away (remember that he was full time catcher than), John Buck, TDA etc was based on AA's evaluation of JPA as one of the faces of the franchise and the catcher of the future. Even now, despite JPAs performance as one of the worst catchers in the league, I wouldnt be surprised if AA were to trade Jiminez or Nessy way.

[Graham's Cracker]

Although i can see why you didnt include every transaction, you have to give aa credit for all the acquisitions that turned out to be comp picks. That is what gave him the prospect depth to make a couple big moves

[tiger7]

Yunel and JoJo Reyes 4/5? JoJo was a DISASTER and that's being kind.

[Randle McMurphy]

Yunel and JoJo Reyes 4/5? JoJo was a DISASTER and that's being kind.

It could arguably be ranked even better than that considering Yunel's good play over the 2.5 years and the ridiculously team friendly contract they got him to sign.

[Garmfay]

Dickey deal was awful........hope it doesn't turn out a disaster like Colon Expos deal..(Phillips, Cliff Lee, Sizemore) -> (Verlandergaard, TDA).

[user3000]

Realized that I forgot the Happ and Snider trades. Both are probably about 3's (despite me hating the Snider deal personally) since nothing of real consequence has come out of anyone involved in either trade yet.

I agree on the JPA assessment freakoutguy. At some point AA has to take blame for continuing to let him go out there as a starting catcher.

Graham's cracker, I agree completely on the comp picks. AA did perfectly in that regard. Kinda makes me sad that the days of getting all those extra picks are gone thanks to the new CBA.

I've been trying to wrap my head around how AA could go from so good in trades to so bad recently. I'm thinking maybe the reason has to do with the type of players he looks to acquire. AA likes the "buy-low". Lawrie, Morrow, Yunel, Rasmus, and Napoli were all "problems" when they were aqcuired. Somehow they all more or less worked out better after the trades. In theory a "down" player should come back "up". But what if that luck runs out? This offseason's busts had Dickey (old knuckleballer), Johnson (always hurt), and Melky (drugs). They all fall in line with AA's theory of trying to get a player with some issue(s) so he can either give up less for them or perhaps more importantly pay less on a contract. Well, didn't work.
*Note: Obviously Dickey wasn't a buy low, but taking on a knuckleballer with relatively limited success came with a cheaper contract that AA said was integral to the acquisition.

Maybe the lesson going forward should be that buying low on a player who's had an off performance year (or career) and/or "attitude" problems is OK, but that AA should stop looking for bargains in the bins for players with chronic injury, drug use, and joke pitches.

[Randle McMurphy]

Maybe the lesson going forward should be that buying low on a player who's had an off performance year (or career) and/or "attitude" problems is OK, but that AA should stop looking for bargains in the bins for players with chronic injury, drug use, and joke pitches.

It's a bad idea to make generalities or draw lessons from a single case or two. AA, for example, shouldn't swear off bringing in all PED guys just because Melky has been poor (so far). There are plenty of examples in recent history of guys experiencing great success in such a situation (look no further than Bartolo in 2013).

The fact is that a GM could have completely the right idea in mind with proper reasoning before making a trade and still have it not work out. It doesn't necessarily mean it was the wrong thing to do at the time. The key for them is to seek out deals that carry significant potential reward while also minimizing risk. And I think, on the whole, AA's done that.

[dagger]

Ultimately, it comes down to results

We were a bad team last year, and we're a bad team this year. The future through 2014 looks rather dim, seemingly dependent on Josh Johnson or Ricky Romero finding religion or Brandon Morrow giving us a full season of Good Brandon, a phase that usually last for a start or two.

[Raps in 4]

So what do you think? Which ratings am I off on? Do you want to keep AA?

The ones where you use hindsight to judge the trade.

And yes, I want to keep AA. I think he's one if the best GMs in baseball.

[kwamebargnani]

So what do you think? Which ratings am I off on? Do you want to keep AA?

The ones where you use hindsight to judge the trade.

And yes, I want to keep AA. I think he's one if the best GMs in baseball.

That ship has sailed long ago.

[Raps in 4]

So what do you think? Which ratings am I off on? Do you want to keep AA?

The ones where you use hindsight to judge the trade.

And yes, I want to keep AA. I think he's one if the best GMs in baseball.

That ship has sailed long ago.

His only "bad trade", without using hindsight, was the TDA/NS for Dickey trade. Trading two top prospects for a 38 year-old is never a good idea.

All of his other moves looked good when they happened and few people were opposed to them.

[flatjacket1]

Ultimately, it comes down to results

We were a bad team last year, and we're a bad team this year. The future through 2014 looks rather dim, seemingly dependent on Josh Johnson or Ricky Romero finding religion or Brandon Morrow giving us a full season of Good Brandon, a phase that usually last for a start or two.

Why results? He put together one heck of a team this year and nobody ended up doing as advertised.

When you are favored to win a WS before the season starts after finishing sub-.500 the year before; that is a good GM.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Brandon Morrow giving us a full season of Good Brandon, a phase that usually last for a start or two.

Or most of 2010 to 2012???

As for rating the trades, you can't fully evaluate trades until more than a few seasons have passed. Obviously the Dickey and Marlins trades look terrible right now (and in all likelihood will remain terrible) but if Dickey has a bounce back season next year (somewhere between his 2012 and 2013 seasons), Reyes is healthy all year and the Jays make the playoffs, we'll be looking at the trades completely differently.

[Michael Bradley]

I don't think the Marlins trade was bad even in hindsight, although obviously Johnson **** the bed ruined how good it could have been. Buehrle has performed about as well as expected, and Reyes when healthy has been great. The main players in the trade, outside of JJ, have performed. Unfortunately Bonifacio inexplicably getting playing time at 2B hurt the team over the first two months of the season, but AA's speed fetish is hard to control some times. It's possible that one or more of the prospects given to the Marlins turn out to be good MLB'ers, but at the end of the day, the Jays got the significant talent upgrade short-term, which was the whole point. If they bring Johnson back next year or decide to cut bait due to the cost, I'm still fine with the trade. Reyes is an offensive star in the middle infield, and as long as he is hitting, will be a very valuable player. Buehrle is a 200 IP/4.50 ERA back-end starter who is grossly overpaid. He is what he is.

The Dickey trade is the one that looks worse in hindsight, and while I was OK with the move since it signified a desire to win within the remainder of Bautista and EE's contracts, it was definitely a risk to trade the two best prospects in the system for a 38-year old knuckleballer. AA took a risk that Dickey's unique attributes would pay-off despite the league change and age, but so far, it looks pretty bad. We just have to hope Dickey is healthy next season and hopefully can regain the velocity he had prior to 2013.

AA built a team that, on paper, was good enough to compete for the playoffs. It failed miserably, and ultimately that falls on him, but I'm not ready to close the chapter on this. It will be difficult to turn this team into a winner, but not impossible. The talent, at least in some areas, is there. Upgrades will be needed though (SP depth, 2B, and CA in particular).

[dagger]

Ultimately, it comes down to results

We were a bad team last year, and we're a bad team this year. The future through 2014 looks rather dim, seemingly dependent on Josh Johnson or Ricky Romero finding religion or Brandon Morrow giving us a full season of Good Brandon, a phase that usually last for a start or two.

Why results? He put together one heck of a team this year and nobody ended up doing as advertised.

When you are favored to win a WS before the season starts after finishing sub-.500 the year before; that is a good GM.

One heck of a team? Isn't it time to take a little more of a jaundiced view that it was never as good as many of us thought?

[flatjacket1]

One heck of a team? Isn't it time to take a little more of a jaundiced view that it was never as good as many of us thought?

Your right, all of the trades were extremely controversial and Vegas had us finishing last. Everybody expected Dickey to go from a Cy Young season to #4 starter, Reyes to get hurt etc. etc. My bad.

As a GM I don't know what else you can do.