OT: Buy or Sell: Jets will be 8-8 or better this season

[moocow007]

Me neither.

It's still a very young defensive line and the secondary lost their best CB and best S. Cromartie, Miliner and Wilson may still turn out to be a top flight trio at CB but their safety situation isn't so good. Sure Ryan and Thurman can work to mask that weakness but that would put even more pressure on other guys on the defensive side of the ball to cover. The defense should be a plus (hard not to be) but I don't think it's a plus enough to will them to many 6-3 type wins.

Eric Smith was terrible. And by the numbers, Dawan was a better safety than LaRon (I can find them for you somewhere if you want to check them out, can't find them at the moment). I actually think moving Wilson to S is going to HELP the safety situation. He's got the speed and strength to be a very good ballhawking safety. He needs the play to be in front of him. We'll see how the Landry swap works out, but I also think Antonio Allen is going to be a player in this league. Thought it since before we drafted him last year.

All foresight really, but I don't buy into "the D got worse" at all.

Excellent point about Kyle Wilson he really got exposed last year as CB. Once receivers got past him it was off to the races. I think S is a much better position for him.

It's another player that is new to the position in the NFL is the problem. To expect a career CB that failed to play the position he's played to somehow be better at another position for a defense that relies a lot on their safeties to be able to both go into cover as well as pressure the ball it's hardly going to be a easy transition for him.

[MaseInYourFace]

A lot of guys at the safety position in NFL were former CB's who made the move over. It's not an uncommon move.

[moocow007]

A lot of guys at the safety position in NFL were former CB's who made the move over. It's not an uncommon move.

It's not uncommon but his problem at CB was that he couldn't pick up plays, how's that going to help him as a S where he'd be expected to both go into coverage and react to the line of scrimmage? Sure, he could do better and yes, CB's have moved to S but that doesn't mean that he's going to be better at it. And THAT (the uncertainty of a lot of this defense) is what I'm trying to get at when I say it's probably not realistic for people to expect this defense to be able to lead the Jets to a + .500 season. Can it? Sure...anything is possible but we are talking mostly about hypotheticals here with a lot of guys on this defense.

[KnIcKsYaNkSmEtS1127]

Eric Smith was terrible. And by the numbers, Dawan was a better safety than LaRon (I can find them for you somewhere if you want to check them out, can't find them at the moment). I actually think moving Wilson to S is going to HELP the safety situation. He's got the speed and strength to be a very good ballhawking safety. He needs the play to be in front of him. We'll see how the Landry swap works out, but I also think Antonio Allen is going to be a player in this league. Thought it since before we drafted him last year.

All foresight really, but I don't buy into "the D got worse" at all.

Excellent point about Kyle Wilson he really got exposed last year as CB. Once receivers got past him it was off to the races. I think S is a much better position for him.

It's another player that is new to the position in the NFL is the problem. To expect a career CB that failed to play the position he's played to somehow be better at another position for a defense that relies a lot on their safeties to be able to both go into cover as well as pressure the ball it's hardly going to be a easy transition for him.

I would make the argument that under Rex safety has been the least important position. Linebackers defensive ends and tackle and CBs are the emphasis of Rex's defense. Landry liked tackling people which I appreciate but did he make smart football plays? And Kyle played well the year before last because he came in on certain packages were he isn't the main focus point.

[MaseInYourFace]

A lot of guys at the safety position in NFL were former CB's who made the move over. It's not an uncommon move.

It's not uncommon but his problem at CB was that he couldn't pick up plays, how's that going to help him as a S where he'd be expected to both go into coverage and react to the line of scrimmage? Sure, he could do better and yes, CB's have moved to S but that doesn't mean that he's going to be better at it. And THAT (the uncertainty of a lot of this defense) is what I'm trying to get at when I say it's probably not realistic for people to expect this defense to be able to lead the Jets to a + .500 season. Can it? Sure...anything is possible but we are talking mostly about hypotheticals here with a lot of guys on this defense.

It kinda depends on the scheme though. The way most teams play it is they have one safety who's like basically another middle linebacker out there while the other safety is more of a playmaker. Not sure what Rex intends to do...

[moocow007]

Excellent point about Kyle Wilson he really got exposed last year as CB. Once receivers got past him it was off to the races. I think S is a much better position for him.

It's another player that is new to the position in the NFL is the problem. To expect a career CB that failed to play the position he's played to somehow be better at another position for a defense that relies a lot on their safeties to be able to both go into cover as well as pressure the ball it's hardly going to be a easy transition for him.

I would make the argument that under Rex safety has been the least important position. Linebackers defensive ends and tackle and CBs are the emphasis of Rex's defense. Landry liked tackling people which I appreciate but did he make smart football plays? And Kyle played well the year before last because he came in on certain packages were he isn't the main focus point.

I disagree. I think the safety is very important to Rex Ryan's system traditionally and that the reason he's had to adjust is because he's not had the best one's. I mean what was the first move he made as a head coach? Which former hard hitting S did he bring on? Again, we have a lot of high potential and talented players on defense but they are also not the most seasoned. We say that inconsistency last year with some great defensive showings sandwiched in between some really subpar ones didn't we?

[moocow007]

A lot of guys at the safety position in NFL were former CB's who made the move over. It's not an uncommon move.

It's not uncommon but his problem at CB was that he couldn't pick up plays, how's that going to help him as a S where he'd be expected to both go into coverage and react to the line of scrimmage? Sure, he could do better and yes, CB's have moved to S but that doesn't mean that he's going to be better at it. And THAT (the uncertainty of a lot of this defense) is what I'm trying to get at when I say it's probably not realistic for people to expect this defense to be able to lead the Jets to a + .500 season. Can it? Sure...anything is possible but we are talking mostly about hypotheticals here with a lot of guys on this defense.

It kinda depends on the scheme though. The way most teams play it is they have one guy who's like basically another middle linebacker out there while they have another guy who is more of a playmaker. Not sure what Rex intends to do...

Right. And the concern is that they Ryan is going to have to really work to get this high potential but potentially erratic defense to basically lead this team to wins. Can he? Sure. Will he? Who knows. If this was one of the more established defenses in the NFL or if it was chuck full of top tier vets at specific key positions then sure but with Coples, Richardson and even Wilkerson as the key components of the defensive line and Miliner needing to be relied upon as the 2nd CB it's a very tall order to expect the Jets young defense to be the type of defense this team will need it to be to be able to win more than 8 games.

[Barcs]

I feel that the Jets are going to shock some folks this year. Let's be real. They aren't in nearly as bad a shape as most believe. All the power rankings and everything have the Jets rated dead last, and even the alleged "future power rankings for 2016" (joke of a stat) have them as dead last. Not only are these rankings absurd, but they are also unrealistic. I think they have the potential to reach 9-7, depending on the QB situation. Mark screwed up so bad last season, I don't think it's possible to duplicate a performance that bad, so I see nothing but improvements. I don't mind BSpn and others ranking them dead last, because the Jets always perform better as the under dog. I'll take it.

Things to consider:

The defense last year was ranked 7 or 8th overall without Revis. Against the pass they were #2 (better than the previous year WITH Revis). Cromartie and Kyle Wilson stepped up big time last year and made Revis expendable. The defense is younger and faster. Last year we struggled against the run because of DT injuries combined with old aging LBers. We have addressed these needs and have also added a proven pass rusher in Barnes, something we have lacked for a while. Mo Wilkerson was ranked #2 3-4 DE in the league by many sources. I see him having a pro bowl calibur season. Cromartie was a pro bowler last year, the people talking about him being just a #2 CB need to can it. Completion percentage against stat had him in the top 3 CBs. He'd be a #1 on any team in the league without Revis or maybe Sherman. The defense will be just as good, but most likely even better this year. Richardson (our first round NT) has been turning heads in camp already. Rex will be calling the plays this year, so I expect our D to look more like it did in 2009 + 2010. Coples will be moving all around the line and will play OLB as well.

Geno Smith has shown good things in camp thus far. I know it's too early to tell, but if you look at strictly college stats, Geno Smith is far superior to Sanchez and has MUCH more experience. We got great value getting him in round 2. Starting Geno this year would be less worrisome than Sanchez in 2009, but he'll take the reigns either this year, or next, provided Sanchez doesn't break out and turn everything around this year. I honestly don't see it happening, however. I expect Geno to win the competition.

The Jets finally have a real offensive coordinator, with proven success. Sparano was a joke, and Schotty simply was not good. If Sanchez gets the starting nod, he'll be playing in a system he had success with in college. Schotty was a failed QB coach before becoming OC of the Jets. Cavanaugh (ex QB coach) was a failed OC before becoming QB coach of the Jets. I'm happy to see that they are going with proven coaches with past success rather than gambles on up and coming coaches.

I admit that the offense still has quite a few question marks, but in reality with the defense the Jets have, all the offense has to do is not turn the damn ball over so much. Our defense will keep us in games, we just need the offense to even play mediocre to make the playoffs.

[MaseInYourFace]

Traditionally I think Rex's D are designed with a big time player at NT, and strong safeties, good pass rushers at LB. With the Jets it was a little different though because of Revis, no dominant NT, and pass rush has not been great from LB's. Last season might have been the highest quality of play the jets have gotten out of their safeties under Rex.

[SaveUsKP6]

Everything you are suggesting is foresight and hypothetical. Yes, I'm wishing for the best, just like you, but the problem is that Ryan's defensive systems are not easy to pick up. That's why not every team can do it and why it's been so successful. It's not easy to ask 1st and 2nd years guys to pick it up and it will take time. Some won't. I know you are getting defensive about criticism of the team but the reality is that this is a very young defense and you don't replace most of your secondary and expect everything to pick right back up. You've got Coples trying to learn a new position. You've got a new 1st year player in Richardson. You've got a 1st year player in Miliner. And now you have a guy that really didn't live up to his draft billing at CB moving to a new position as well. Things can go right. Things can not. They lost the better Landry. It's hardly a guarantee that the defense will be the same much less better. And young inexperienced defenses aren't likely to consistently hold teams to a touchdown a game.

Stopped reading at the bolded because you're trying to make it something it's not. Who is getting defensive? Looks like a discussion to me. I said we'll finish with around 6 wins and I'm defensive about criticism? Come on. Not worth talking about this anymore if you're gonna continue with the motives of trying to force your opinion as fact.

[moocow007]

Everything you are suggesting is foresight and hypothetical. Yes, I'm wishing for the best, just like you, but the problem is that Ryan's defensive systems are not easy to pick up. That's why not every team can do it and why it's been so successful. It's not easy to ask 1st and 2nd years guys to pick it up and it will take time. Some won't. I know you are getting defensive about criticism of the team but the reality is that this is a very young defense and you don't replace most of your secondary and expect everything to pick right back up. You've got Coples trying to learn a new position. You've got a new 1st year player in Richardson. You've got a 1st year player in Miliner. And now you have a guy that really didn't live up to his draft billing at CB moving to a new position as well. Things can go right. Things can not. They lost the better Landry. It's hardly a guarantee that the defense will be the same much less better. And young inexperienced defenses aren't likely to consistently hold teams to a touchdown a game.

Stopped reading at the bolded because you're trying to make it something it's not. Who is getting defensive? Looks like a discussion to me. I said we'll finish with around 6 wins and I'm defensive about criticism? Come on. Not worth talking about this anymore if you're gonna continue with the motives of trying to force your opinion as fact.

And that's different than you trying to force projection as fact? If you are saying that they will win 6 games then I must have missed it cause the way you are presenting it they should win at least 8-9 games on the defense alone.

[MaseInYourFace]

Everything you are suggesting is foresight and hypothetical. Yes, I'm wishing for the best, just like you, but the problem is that Ryan's defensive systems are not easy to pick up. That's why not every team can do it and why it's been so successful. It's not easy to ask 1st and 2nd years guys to pick it up and it will take time. Some won't. I know you are getting defensive about criticism of the team but the reality is that this is a very young defense and you don't replace most of your secondary and expect everything to pick right back up. You've got Coples trying to learn a new position. You've got a new 1st year player in Richardson. You've got a 1st year player in Miliner. And now you have a guy that really didn't live up to his draft billing at CB moving to a new position as well. Things can go right. Things can not. They lost the better Landry. It's hardly a guarantee that the defense will be the same much less better. And young inexperienced defenses aren't likely to consistently hold teams to a touchdown a game.

Stopped reading at the bolded because you're trying to make it something it's not. Who is getting defensive? Looks like a discussion to me. I said we'll finish with around 6 wins and I'm defensive about criticism? Come on. Not worth talking about this anymore if you're gonna continue with the motives of trying to force your opinion as fact.

And that's different than you trying to force projection as fact? If you are saying that they will win 6 games then I must have missed it cause the way you are presenting it they should win at least 8-9 games on the defense alone.

Maybe he meant the defense will win you 8-9 but the offense alone will lose them at least 3 or 4 games bringing them down to a 5-6 win team.

[DrKnick]

4-5 wins at best.

[moocow007]

Traditionally I think Rex's D are designed with a big time player at NT, and strong safeties, good pass rushers at LB. With the Jets it was a little different though because of Revis and pass rush has not been great from LB's. Last season might have been the highest quality of play the jets have gotten out of their safeties under Rex.

Right and both their top 2 safeties from last season are gone aren't they? And yet their defense was still inconsistent, especially when they needed it to count the most.

Yes, I'm very excited to see what Coples can do a full season. Also very excited about Richardson and Wilkerson on the line. I wasn't a big fan of the Miliner pick due to his propensity for injury but upside wise, he's got plenty. I think this defense can become a top notch defense but all I'm saying is that I don't know that it can be consistent enough to be able to lead them up to .500 or above.

[moocow007]

Stopped reading at the bolded because you're trying to make it something it's not. Who is getting defensive? Looks like a discussion to me. I said we'll finish with around 6 wins and I'm defensive about criticism? Come on. Not worth talking about this anymore if you're gonna continue with the motives of trying to force your opinion as fact.

And that's different than you trying to force projection as fact? If you are saying that they will win 6 games then I must have missed it cause the way you are presenting it they should win at least 8-9 games on the defense alone.

Maybe he meant the defense will win you 8-9 but the offense alone will lose them at least 3 or 4 games bringing them down to a 5-6 win team.

Oh maybe. If that's the case, then ok. I agree.

[JustaKnickFan]

As a jet fan this year, I don't really have much expectations for this team. I just hope that the young players look mostly good.

The next offseason the jets will have loads of picks and maybe then we'll see this team finally gain a long competitive window

[SaveUsKP6]

Everything you are suggesting is foresight and hypothetical. Yes, I'm wishing for the best, just like you, but the problem is that Ryan's defensive systems are not easy to pick up. That's why not every team can do it and why it's been so successful. It's not easy to ask 1st and 2nd years guys to pick it up and it will take time. Some won't. I know you are getting defensive about criticism of the team but the reality is that this is a very young defense and you don't replace most of your secondary and expect everything to pick right back up. You've got Coples trying to learn a new position. You've got a new 1st year player in Richardson. You've got a 1st year player in Miliner. And now you have a guy that really didn't live up to his draft billing at CB moving to a new position as well. Things can go right. Things can not. They lost the better Landry. It's hardly a guarantee that the defense will be the same much less better. And young inexperienced defenses aren't likely to consistently hold teams to a touchdown a game.

Stopped reading at the bolded because you're trying to make it something it's not. Who is getting defensive? Looks like a discussion to me. I said we'll finish with around 6 wins and I'm defensive about criticism? Come on. Not worth talking about this anymore if you're gonna continue with the motives of trying to force your opinion as fact.

And that's different than you trying to force projection as fact? If you are saying that they will win 6 games then I must have missed it cause the way you are presenting it they should win at least 8-9 games on the defense alone.

I said a few pages ago the defense will win us 6 games. I think we are anywhere from 6-8 depending on how the defense pans out. If Wilson makes a smooth, not seamless transition to safety and Richardson has a solid first year I can easily see us winning 7 or 8, given Mark doesn't get even worse/Geno doesn't get completely overwhelmed.

I think Wilson at safety is a whole lot more possible to work out than you are making it out to be. Look at his strengths. He's got speed, he's physical, but he gets lost when he loses his man. If the play is in front of him though, he's a very solid CB. Now look at the role of a safety...

[KnIcKsYaNkSmEtS1127]

This would be the first year Rex has 3 potential studs on his line. The last time Rex had a real threat on the d line would be Kris Jenkins in 2009. Although Rex lost Revis which really opened up his blitz packages this young solid line will add a different dynamic to Rex's play calling. It's going to be fun to watch Coples and Mo Wilk this season I'm not expecting big things from Sheldon but who knows. I think this D has a chip on its shoulder to prove it wasn't only Revis. And I think the Run game will be revitalized this year. Idzik took alot of guys who need to prove themselves it's a big risk but can produce big rewards.

[kinein]

No Revis.

No Holmes.

Who do they have?

Oh thats right ~ the Jets would get destroyed in the S EEEE CEEE


Can you imagine the Jets vs Alabama or Texas A&M? LAWL ~ LSU would eat this team for lunch.

[Fury]

No Revis.

No Holmes.

Who do they have?

Oh thats right ~ the Jets would get destroyed in the S EEEE CEEE


Can you imagine the Jets vs Alabama or Texas A&M? LAWL ~ LSU would eat this team for lunch.

LAWL what a terrible post