Please critique my analysis

[jazzfan1971]

#18 - Detroit Pistons

PG - Brandon Knight, Will Bynum
SG - Rodney Stuckey, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SF - Josh Smith, Kyle Singler
PF - Greg Monroe, Charlie Villanueva
C - Andre Drummond, Vyacheslav Kravtsov
D - Chauncey Billups, Tony Mitchell, ?

Next time I play hangman, I'm going with Vyacheslav Kravtsov. I'll go ahead and tell folks he's a center who plays for the Detroit Pistons. I'll even do eyeballs and a bellybutton. I'll still win every time.

I gotta say, I am excited to watch Detroit this year. That roster just looks like so much fun. Knight and Stuckey running the ball down opposing defenses throats with Smith and Drummond blocking any shot that dares originate within 6 feet of the rim. It should be a good show. What I don't like so much is the depth. Especially at the 4/5. I don't have anything against Charlie Villanueva, excepting for his lack of being able to play basketball. Is that too harsh? Maybe. But, if Villanueva and Kravtsov is your 2nd line of defense for your frontcourt I think that's a problem. Especially when Drummond is likely to be in foul trouble a lot. Why this team didn't go out and sign someone booring and reliable as a backup is beyond me. Surely there must be guys like Nazr Mohammed looking for work right now.

Still. Other than the Jazz, Detroit is right up there with Minny in the teams I wanna watch play basketball.

I think they take a big leap forward this year on the back of one Andre Drummond and lock up the 7th seed.

I think it'd be nice to sign Bill Walton as your color guy. I can hear him now, "Make a free throw big fella!"

Projected record: 41/41

[Warspite]

Bigs: 3 man rotation with Smith being able to play PF and Monroe C the backup mins are eaten up and that allows the Pistons to give more mins to SFs or go 3 guards for stretches.

I guess Billups wants to start and he says hes 100% healthy. Time will tell.


My guess is that Stuckey wont be on the roster opening night or have a 50 game ear infection.

Stuckey, CV3= 15 mil in expireing trade bait.

Many of us think Middleton will pass Singler.

Mitchell will be a D league MVP candidate.


I think .500 and 7th seed is low to middle ground. Best case is 48 wins and 4th seed and worst is 37 and 9th seed. Just way to many moving parts get a good grip on predictions for next season.

[sc8581]

Datome(not mentioned) and Billups will play bigger roles than you think, Chauncey and Knight almost have to be the starters because of the lack of range with the 3 guys in the frontcourt.

[dVs33]

Like warspite said, your line up is a little off.

Most believe Knight and Billips will be the starting back court. With Stuckey and KCP mostley backing them up.
I could see Stuckey getting some spot minutes at SF too if we're going for a run and gun line up.

Smith will split minutes at both forward spots, so Monroe will be the primary back up C. Slava won't see the floor all that much. Heck, they may even throw Jonas or CV at the C spot for very short spells if they go small.
There's a lot that's up in the air with a new coach, signings and draftees, but we have some versatile pieces that allow us to run all types of line ups, so that always helps.

If you put a gun to my head, i'll say we'll get between 35-42 wins this season, but that number could easily change dramatically, so i'll wait til a few games in before i make my official prediction.

[jazzfan1971]

I was thinking Chauncey would be more of a player-coach than a player. More useful in time-outs and practice than on the floor.

Interesting that you folks think he's going to have a big role. You do realize he'll be 37 and not many guards play to that ripe age. And even fewer play a big role at that age. I think Steve Nash is the only current PG over 36 in the league right now playing anything close to a major role.

[dVs33]

I was thinking Chauncey would be more of a player-coach than a player. More useful in time-outs and practice than on the floor.

Interesting that you folks think he's going to have a big role. You do realize he'll be 37 and not many guards play to that ripe age. And even fewer play a big role at that age.

just to kick off the season i could see billips starting and playing between 15 - 20 mins. I hope that number goes down because KCP and Knight prove themselves, but it's not that unrealistic to expect billips playing the steady vet role in a starting line up of young guys and new signings.

[sc8581]

I was thinking Chauncey would be more of a player-coach than a player. More useful in time-outs and practice than on the floor.

Interesting that you folks think he's going to have a big role. You do realize he'll be 37 and not many guards play to that ripe age. And even fewer play a big role at that age. I think Steve Nash is the only current PG over 36 in the league right now playing anything close to a major role.

Ginobili is less than a year younger than Billups and he's still very effective, I also found 5 other guards close to his age or older that can still be difference makers. Billips will be running the point quite a bit when he's out there but he will almost certainly be guarding the SGs.

[dan2314]

This season should be a start at getting back to relevency, hopefully making some noise and slotting in the bottom half of the playoffs, before DNP-CV and Stuckey expire, and we have another shot at free agency to improve the depth, and we then start to make a serious push at contention.

when chauncey was signed i, as well as most thought hed be playing 12 mins or so as a backup/coach. but his press conference made it sound like he, and the organisation had plans to play a large amount of minutes.(his game never really did rely on athleticism so it could work) The way i see it, is that chauncey and knight will start the season at the 1/2, which i dont like at all (knight is way too small for the 2), and eventually chauncey will get hurt, and KCP will be put in as the starting 2 and will play too well to lose it.

Like you said, the big man depth is a serious problem though. Its hard enough to play a 3 man rotation when its a 4/5 and a backup at either position. But for the backup to be needing minutes (let alone starting) at the 3, there is going to need to be someone else playing atleast 15-20 mins, we're hoping CV can be effective, but im a little worried. There's also the huge chance that one of greg or dre get injured, or in foul trouble, and we have no one to go to other than slava, and that scares me. It makes very little sense we didnt get another guy who can play 20 mins at center.

[vege]

Your analysis is very off but I'll give you credit for coming here and ask for critique.

First thing, Joe D and Chauncey both said Chauncey Billups will be Detroit's starting PG.

Second thing, you missed some very important pieces in Detroit's rotation. Jonas Jerebko could and should be ahead of Charlie Villanueva in the rotation since he finished last year strong and is a much better basketball player than CV even tho he is not a very good one.

Khris Middleton and Luigi Datome should both fight with Kyle Singler for minutes I believe all 3 are at a similar level, neither very good however they are decent at different things, Singler as a high bbiq glue guy, Middleton as a solid defender and solid shooter and Datome as a great shooter and energy guy.

Lastly Detroit's SG spot is not set in stones yet, we could see Knight, Stuckey and KCP fighting for minutes there and Josh Smith should play at least half of his minutes at PF.

[ThirdMan]

I don't have anything against Charlie Villanueva, excepting for his lack of being able to play basketball. Is that too harsh? Maybe. But, if Villanueva and Kravtsov is your 2nd line of defense for your frontcourt I think that's a problem.

Not harsh at all. CV earned every bit of hate that comes his way. He's just one more person that makes you wish the NBA had non-guaranteed contracts.

[Pharaoh]

The whole "lack of big man depth" thing is over-rated when you consider that most people believe Josh Smith's best position is PF and we have Singler, Middleton, Jerebko, Datome and Stuckey that can all log minutes at SF.

Don't sleep on Mitchell either... dude could be that "other" big man.

[dan2314]

Your analysis is very off but I'll give you credit for coming here and ask for critique.

First thing, Joe D and Chauncey both said Chauncey Billups will be Detroit's starting PG.

Second thing, you missed some very important pieces in Detroit's rotation. Jonas Jerebko could and should be ahead of Charlie Villanueva in the rotation since he finished last year strong and is a much better basketball player than CV even tho he is not a very good one.

no.
billups has not been confirmed to start, we all are just assuming based on the what we have heard so far.
there is no way JJ should get more minutes than charlie this year, especially with so many spacing issues.

[Snakebites]

I dunno, I guess I'm less convinced Chauncey is going to play big minutes with consistency for us than most people on this board.

People remember the iron-man Billups we had who rarely missed a game, but he's not that guy anymore.

If our rotation is handled correctly big man depth shouldn't be a huge issue. Its the lack of general quality on the perimeter that is the problem, together with spacing.

[dan2314]

The whole "lack of big man depth" thing is over-rated when you consider that most people believe Josh Smith's best position is PF and we have Singler, Middleton, Jerebko, Datome and Stuckey that can all log minutes at SF.

Don't sleep on Mitchell either... dude could be that "other" big man.

We saw last year how much of a burden only having two guys capable of playing center was. that was the main reason dre couldnt start. Its not easy to have only one guy being able to backup that position, and starting aswell. We will be fine for guys to play at SF and PF, but dre and moose wont play more than about 10 mins together if they have to combine for the entire 48 mins at C. In theory it works, but once you try to implement it, it wont work, they get tired. someone else will need to be able to play spot minutes, and i dont want that to be slava.

Dont forget about how common it is for bigs guys to break down and miss a big stretch of games. last year when dre need 25 games off, slava was having to play 4-6 min stretches, and monroe was playing like 38-40 min games, it was unwatchable basketball. Thats also just going to make them even more injury prone. What if its moose going down? Dres conditioning is bad enough trying to play 30 mins, dont even think about 40-48.

[Pharaoh]

I'm hoping Mitchell is the guy that can make some noise off the bench at PF/C...

Ideally he'd be able to hold his own for 5 minute stretches bridging the first/2nd quarters... and bridging the 3rd/4th quarters.

This would give Drummond or Monroe 10 minutes off the floor in game time... but it would be a hell of a lot longer in real time due to the quarter breaks.

[HotelVitale]

I was thinking Chauncey would be more of a player-coach than a player. More useful in time-outs and practice than on the floor. Interesting that you folks think he's going to have a big role.

We're hoping Chauncey can give us something because Knight was really inefficient last year and Stuckey looked awful. That's actually my biggest critique--Knight and Stuck are not fun to watch, nor are they particularly good at pushing the ball. Knight's a pick n roll player who reads plays poorly, turns the ball over a lot, and has a nice shot. Not a very good passer, but could get a lot better this year just by making better and clearer decisions (in the unlikely event he doesn't improve, he's not far from the NBA junk heap). Stuck is big and used to work hard to get to the basket, even if he took a lot of questionable angles, but he was just off last year. Bad timing, bad effort, bad attitude. I don't count on much from him anymore--don't think a lot of fans do--but it's nice to be reminded that he could give us something.

One thing I've been telling people to watch for is how the pistons run their offense. Our good players are all limited--none of the bigs can shoot, none of the wings can penetrate and finish--so we're going to have to run some creative schemes and move the ball around like mad. If not, we'll be unwatchable on offense. Although it was pretty fun to watch Dre do almost anything last year.

[Mr. Krabs]

It's pretty hard to critique any analysis at this point. This Detroit team is an exciting experiment that can go either way.

Billups is the starting PG. That is, if he can stay healthy. Most of the folks here are concerned about the spacing of the starting five but I think another important thing is ball handling. I want to see Knight + Billups starting at the guard positions because with Smith/Monroe/Drummond we need good ball handlers. Say, if we start KCP at the 2, who is an unproven ball handler, the offense might become stiff as hell with the opponent bringing in double teams everywhere. Monroe and Smith being good passers helps this issue a bit but still, we need guys who can dribble the ball from point A to B.

CV should be the first big off-bench. He is in the best place possible right now, between Smith and Drummond he can have plenty of looks from outside and won't have to care much about the defense.

Then we should have the "small" lineup, with Monroe at C and Smith at PF, the SF spot there is wide open as both Middleton and Singler are good fits there. KCP should see plenty of time at the SG spot when one of Drummond or Monroe is on the bench because we won't be as stiff with the ball handling at that time. Kravtsov won't see any minutes except garbage time.

The last possible combination that we can use a lot is, Bynum/Mitchell/Drummond + shooters. Both Mitchell and Drummond are great pick and roll targets (also pick and pop too with Mitchell). Bynum/KCP/Middleton/Mitchell/Drummond is a really good lineup for both offense and defense depending on the situation (if we can afford to put the young guys in).

This is possibly the most flexible roster (not counting the Heat) in the league. Nearly all of our guys are capable of playing multiple positions, this should be exciting for Maurice Cheeks. With the interior defense alone, I agree that 7th in East is feasible. But who knows, if Smith can't adapt to the team and the new coach cannot find the lineups we could go as low as 11th.

[ImHeisenberg]

But, if Villanueva and Kravtsov is your 2nd line of defense for your frontcourt I think that's a problem.

I think you're viewing the line-ups in terms of strictly looking at the depth chart. The primary "back up" bigs will be Smith playing PF and Monroe sliding down to center. Kravstov (Ktrl-V) will be there for garbage minutes, and soak up some fouls.

Villanueva was relatively productive last year in a line-up with Bynum and Drummond, stretching the defense for the pick and roll game. So, he has some (marginal) value.

Also, I doubt Stuckey starts. This team will need to put shooters in the back court to help pull the defense out of the key. Additionally, you neglected to mention Luigi Datomi in the depth chart.

[vic]

I'd say Billups starts at PG just because mentally he's done it better than any other option. Stuckey/knight need to watch him set the tone and follow him... If they want to extend their NbA careers.

Id prefer to have KCP start at Sg since he's the only actual 2 way shooting guard on the roster, but I realize Knight may start at SG just because of his name and his experience and his hard working rep.

So I see a 4 guard rotation
Billups/Knight
Stuckey/KCP

With Bynum playing spot minutes in 3rd or 4th quarter scoring slumps.

That guard rotation is actually pretty solid defensively and offensively. It's not the most talented but I think it gets the job done. Stuckey/Billups can protect the ball.. Knight/KCP can shoot the ball.

We have probably the best big rotation in the league:
Monroe/Drummond
Smith/Monroe
Mitchell/Drummond
Smith/Drummond

That should be enough for 48 minutes, especially if Mitchell takes a nice role, and Jerebko/CV fill up spot minutes at PF.

The only position we may not be a consistent positive at is SF.

Josh Smith
Datome
Singler
Middleton
Jerebko

Smith and Jerebko will be plus defenders and speed the game up but will hurt spacing in the half court.
The other 3 are shooters that will have to fight it out for top dog before the playoffs.

I say Pistons get 5th or 6th seed. They have talent in the paint where it matters most, and depth at every position. Or should I say depth at every role. They have multiple rebounders, multiple paint scorers, multiple shooters, 2 ball protectors, multiple shot blockers, wing defenders.. Every important role is covered at least twice.

Cheeks strategic moves are the only things the Pistons success depends on...

[Collymore]

Chauncey won't start.