Please critique my analysis

[jazzfan1971]

#16 - Los Angeles Lakers

PG - Steve Nash, Steve Blake
SG - Kobe Bryant, Jodie Meeks
SF - Nick Young, Wesley Johnson
PF - Pau Gasol, Ryan Kelly
C - Chris Kaman, Jordan Hill
D - Jordan Farmar, Robert Sacre, ?

Steve Nash is 8 years older than the next oldest starting PG (Jameer Nelson).
Kobe Bryant is coming off Achilles surgery.
Nick Young has a career PER of 12.8.
Pau Gasol is coming off the worst year of his career.
and
Chris Kaman is Chris Kaman.

I might have the Lakers ranked too high. But, I'm just afraid of counting out Kobe. So, I'm going to give the Lakers a little more respect than I might if I was just looking at the roster. If Kobe comes back too early and gets injured or gets his return delayed til January or later things look pretty bad for the Lakers. Last year they limped into the playoffs with a 45 win record. Now they are missing Dwight Howard and have a gimpy Kobe and are being asked to crawl back into the playoffs one more time. I dont' think they'll get there. I think they'll give it a hell of a try though. If Kobe can't suit up take at least 10 wins off this total.

Projected Record: 43/39

[Slava]

That seems about a fair mid way assumption on how this will turnout. This is what I see from the Lakers this season:

Positives:

1. Better team chemistry
2. Well defined roles for each player
3. Training camp with the coach
4. Underdog status
5. Basically it can't be worse than last season
6. We still own our own draft pick to go full tank in Feb if that is an option

Negatives:

1. Pau, Kobe & Nash are all a year older and the probability of injury is still high
2. Kobe's status uncertain
3. That interior defense is brutal enough to put a brothel sign in front of the paint

[EArl]

#16 - Los Angeles Lakers

PG - Steve Nash, Steve Blake
SG - Kobe Bryant, Jodie Meeks
SF - Nick Young, Wesley Johnson
PF - Pau Gasol, Ryan Kelly
C - Chris Kaman, Jordan Hill
D - Jordan Farmar, Robert Sacre, ?

Steve Nash is 8 years older than the next oldest starting PG (Jameer Nelson).
Kobe Bryant is coming off Achilles surgery.
Nick Young has a career PER of 12.8.
Pau Gasol is coming off the worst year of his career.
and
Chris Kaman is Chris Kaman.

I might have the Lakers ranked too high. But, I'm just afraid of counting out Kobe. So, I'm going to give the Lakers a little more respect than I might if I was just looking at the roster. If Kobe comes back too early and gets injured or gets his return delayed til January or later things look pretty bad for the Lakers. Last year they limped into the playoffs with a 45 win record. Now they are missing Dwight Howard and have a gimpy Kobe and are being asked to crawl back into the playoffs one more time. I dont' think they'll get there. I think they'll give it a hell of a try though. If Kobe can't suit up take at least 10 wins off this total.

Projected Record: 43/39

That seems about right to me.
I agree that the Lakers are missing Dwight, but the players they have right now have cohesion so in theory they will be able to win those easy games that they lost last year playing with Dwight.
Nash is old and hopefully he doesnt play many minutes. If Farmar and Blake take some minutes from him than the Lakers should be fine.
The x factor of the season will be how long Kobe is out and if he is playing well after the injury.
I also have a feeling that we will make another trade for a certain wing before the playoffs start.

[Dr Aki]

5. Basically it can't be worse than last season

i dunno, maybe we're down a 3xDPOY player but i think it evens out

[chefy]

I could point out all the positives next season and say the Lakers are gonna be fine and they'll make the playoffs. But really everything will come down to health, health, and health. Especially Kobe's health!

If everybody is healthy the Lakers is a 6-8 playoff team maybe even 5. I don't expect Kobe to come back till Nov or Dec. And then he'll be fully in shape and he'll get his rhythm and timing back maybe after the Allstar break.

[leeprettyp]

#16 - Los Angeles Lakers

PG - Steve Nash, Steve Blake
SG - Kobe Bryant, Jodie Meeks
SF - Nick Young, Wesley Johnson
PF - Pau Gasol, Ryan Kelly
C - Chris Kaman, Jordan Hill
D - Jordan Farmar, Robert Sacre, ?

Steve Nash is 8 years older than the next oldest starting PG (Jameer Nelson).
Kobe Bryant is coming off Achilles surgery.
Nick Young has a career PER of 12.8.
Pau Gasol is coming off the worst year of his career.
and
Chris Kaman is Chris Kaman.

I might have the Lakers ranked too high. But, I'm just afraid of counting out Kobe. So, I'm going to give the Lakers a little more respect than I might if I was just looking at the roster. If Kobe comes back too early and gets injured or gets his return delayed til January or later things look pretty bad for the Lakers. Last year they limped into the playoffs with a 45 win record. Now they are missing Dwight Howard and have a gimpy Kobe and are being asked to crawl back into the playoffs one more time. I dont' think they'll get there. I think they'll give it a hell of a try though. If Kobe can't suit up take at least 10 wins off this total.

Projected Record: 43/39

This was pretty solid

[semi-sentient]

I don't think that that's going to be the rotation. It's highly likely that Farmar is backing up Nash with Blake spending most of his time at the 2.

Kaman is likely going to back Pau up so Hill is probably starting at the 4.

I believe we'll see Kobe playing the 3 a lot as well so that Young can get his minutes at the 2.


Overall I would say that the Lakers backcourt has improved significantly, so that's a big plus that has to be factored in. Nash is going to be more effective given our current lineup as he really struggled to get things going with Howard who didn't want to run PNR's.

If Kobe indeed slides over to the 3 then we see a significant upgrade there as well. Metta was really awful last year, and while he's a better defender than Kobe his lack of offense/ability to space really hurt our overall chemistry.

The biggest question mark is going to be FC defense, so it comes down to how effective Pau can be at the 5. Hill is a massive improvement over Pau (or Jamison) at the 4 so that's a big plus already, but whether or not than completely negates losing Howard remains to be seen. I do feel that we improved our perimeter defense with Farmar, Young, and Blake, so that will help with losing Howard.

If we stay healthy I'm confident we'll win 50 games, but health is a difficult thing to predict.

[NOODLESTYLE]

I see Farmar getting more playing time, with Blake playing backup at both PG/SG, especially if Kobe's out. Farmar also improved his 3point shot, so if he has that going, the offense is going to open up for him. Elias Harris might be that 3rd string forward.

[Kilroy]

I think a lot of our troubles last season were the direct result of injuries and trying to find a methodology that worked for Dwight... I think we wasted a lot of energy trying to make DHo happy and that resulted in a lot of awkward, forced and ultimately unsuccessful basketball.

I think we have smarter, happier, healthier players and we have a coaching system in place in preseason, and we have a motivated, athletic youth movement going on.

I may be insane but I think we're still a 50 win team if we can get everyone healthy... I think our offense is going to be surprising, and I think our D will be better than feared.

Pau's post D is under-rated... He's a solid man defender at the 5 and an under rated shot blocker. His effectiveness goes down drastically the farther he gets away from the basket though and he's a revolving door when guarding 4s or face up 5s.

That and our post D looked so bad last season because our perimeter D was Junior Varsity level last season. I think Farmar, Young, Johnson, and Harris will help that.

We're not going to be a defensive powerhouse but I think we can be average or slightly better.

I think if Kobe truly makes a full recovery and is back in form for the post all star break push, we might have a shot at the 6th seed and depending on our first round matchup, I could see a second round series out of this team..

But it all hinges on Kobe... If he has a setback, or shows no sign of getting back in shape by all-star break, I see the Tank coming out in earnest... And I see us playing for a lottery spot.

[Asianiac_24]

I actually think we would be better this season than last barring significant injuries.

[Wavy Q]

If we win 43 games this season i will be sad

[MAMBAEMD]

The chemistry will probably be much better this year without D12.
In retrospect, and having watched every game, some of them twice, I think the players felt that D12 did not want to be there. Also in retrospect, I really think he didn't give it his all. Just my opinion.

Pau is much better in the post than D12 will ever be. He has much better hands and better foot work. Our turnovers should be less too because we'll have Nash hopefully from the beginning of the season, avoiding injuries.

That factor will be gone. Everyone on this team wants to be a Laker. That will help to some extent but probably not enough to overcome injuries and lack of defense.
Last year, Kobe by himslef "willed" the team to some wins. I just don't know if he can do that anymore. I know mentally he will be there and more determined than ever. But physically, we'll have to wait and see.

We will be a MDA "run and gun" kind of team. we are old but a little more atheletic with the new additions.
We will be fun to watch, but I will be pleasantly surprised if we win 45 games.


No matter what, Go Lakers!!!

[Thethirdguy]

One thing I would say is that even though it's pretty standard to use a teams record the previous season as a base to predict the next season, it's almost completely irrelevant in this particular situation.

Even if you factor out the injuries, the fact that the team started the season with all new players, no chemistry, no camp and went through 3 different coaches and systems, it basically makes the first 20 games or so of the season irrelevant.

This year should have added chemistry with the core guys, they'll have training camp and the addition of another quality coach in Kurt Rambis. Not saying this is going to be a 55 or 60 win team or anything, just that I think these things should be considered moreso than their record from last year

[Michael Lucky]

I'd be shocked if we got 43 games. Guess it all depends on Kobe plays.

[DEEP3CL]

That analysis is A typical of an outsider....especially with hidden agenda. If we counter it any other way we're charged with being the "homers".

The Lakers sewed up the gaps where major weakness plagued them for the last 3 years. The Laker season depends on two things, the older core holding up for more than 75% of the games. Meaning Kobe, Nash and Pau must perform decently and not miss much time.

The other part is the youth in Young, Farmar, Johnson, Kelly, Hill, Meeks must produce nightly. Then the X-factor players in Blake and Kaman will also have to hold their own. Neither from this group has to play above their heads, just be steady and help in other areas when their offense is sputtering.

The Lakers will now be able to morph into MDA's system much more fluidly than last season because 90% of the roster can run P&R or pick and pop. Also Farmar is another guy who can get penetration to the basket which will help guys like Meeks and Young or Johnson on most nights. Kelly is a question mark, in my opinion he has to play off the bat and be developed to the big "Horry type" stretch 4 we've lacked in a long time.

If he can get some minutes in the rotation, we're slightly better on the perimeter. Offense.....and I'll say it 1000 times, it won't be our problem. The D is what will be a concern. But if guys like Farmar, Young and Johnson can cover the perimeter on a decent basis we should be ok. Hill is our only rugged interior player and that concerns me.

But again if we don't let penetration kill us, we won't have to be worrying about Pau in the middle.

But we're a lot better than 39/43 wins...I keep saying it over and over, the teams the media want to blow up and swear like hell they're that much better than us ain't that much of a stalk to climb. Mark my words GSW will have some trouble duplicating last season. You don't lose guys like Jack and Landry and expect to be better by replacing them with Mo Speights and Tony Douglas. Denver is a big question mark, Memphis is running out a rookie coach on a team with high strung vets that can run him over.

I like our chances......yeah we ain't a contender but we're a team that can F up somebody's prize season and I love it. It's gonna happen and the media is gonna hate it.

[redjays]

That analysis is A typical of an outsider....especially with hidden agenda. If we counter it any other way we're charged with being the "homers".

The Lakers sewed up the gaps where major weakness plagued them for the last 3 years. The Laker season depends on two things, the older core holding up for more than 75% of the games. Meaning Kobe, Nash and Pau must perform decently and not miss much time.

The other part is the youth in Young, Farmar, Johnson, Kelly, Hill, Meeks must produce nightly. Then the X-factor players in Blake and Kaman will also have to hold their own. Neither from this group has to play above their heads, just be steady and help in other areas when their offense is sputtering.

The Lakers will now be able to morph into MDA's system much more fluidly than last season because 90% of the roster can run P&R or pick and pop. Also Farmar is another guy who can get penetration to the basket which will help guys like Meeks and Young or Johnson on most nights. Kelly is a question mark, in my opinion he has to play off the bat and be developed to the big "Horry type" stretch 4 we've lacked in a long time.

If he can get some minutes in the rotation, we're slightly better on the perimeter. Offense.....and I'll say it 1000 times, it won't be our problem. The D is what will be a concern. But if guys like Farmar, Young and Johnson can cover the perimeter on a decent basis we should be ok. Hill is our only rugged interior player and that concerns me.

But again if we don't let penetration kill us, we won't have to be worrying about Pau in the middle.

But we're a lot better than 39/43 wins...I keep saying it over and over, the teams the media want to blow up and swear like hell they're that much better than us ain't that much of a stalk to climb. Mark my words GSW will have some trouble duplicating last season. You don't lose guys like Jack and Landry and expect to be better by replacing them with Mo Speights and Tony Douglas. Denver is a big question mark, Memphis is running out a rookie coach on a team with high strung vets that can run him over.

I like our chances......yeah we ain't a contender but we're a team that can F up somebody's prize season and I love it. It's gonna happen and the media is gonna hate it.

I like how when you brought up the warriors you only mentioned Speights and Douglas and forgot to mention they added ANDRE IGUODALA.

[DEEP3CL]

I like how when you brought up the warriors you only mentioned Speights and Douglas and forgot to mention they added ANDRE IGUODALA.

Maybe because I've seen Iggy on 2 different teams and he's NEVER strike fear in me ?

Iggy will help but he can't glue together what Jack and Landry did. And if the reports are true about him helping with the play making........I've seen that act in Philly, it ain't gonna be pretty and will break the flow of what made the Warriors so special. Iggy will look for his first. Believe that.

[redjays]

I like how when you brought up the warriors you only mentioned Speights and Douglas and forgot to mention they added ANDRE IGUODALA.

Maybe because I've seen Iggy on 2 different teams and he's NEVER strike fear in me ?

Iggy will help but he can't glue together what Jack and Landry did. And if the reports are true about him helping with the play making........I've seen that act in Philly, it ain't gonna be pretty and will break the flow of what made the Warriors so special. Iggy will look for his first. Believe that.

Dre might not strike "fear" in you but Tim Duncan probably doesn't either. Nuggets without dre 2 seasons ago 38 wins. Last season with Dre 57 wins!! He makes a huge impact. And for jack, he took lots of erratic shots not only in season but against the spurs in the playoffs that could have went to curry or Thompson, even Bogut down low

[Michael Lucky]

Iggy had what a 15PER last year? He's definitely and upgrade over Barnes at SF but still he's been overrated for years and i've been saying it anytime people wanted to trade for him and his contract. At the end of the day, there's still a huge gap on that team between Curry and their second best player. Mind you i definitely see GS being a top 5 team in the west if Healthy next year.

[Marionettetc]

OP: Your assessment is fair, possibly too generous. I think Kaman backs up 5 and hill starts the 4 for better defense. Pau hasn't been able to hang at the 4 in years. It's logical to conclude he'd be a prototypical 5 in Antoni's system. (Whatever it turns out to be)