Please critique my analysis

[jazzfan1971]

#15 - Atlanta Hawks

PG - Jeff Teague, Dennis Schröder
SG - John Jenkins, Lou Williams
SF - Kyle Korver, DeShawn Stevenson
PF - Paul Millsap, Gustavo Ayon
C - Al Horford, Elton Brand
D - Jared Cunningham, Demarre Carroll, ?

I liked Korver, Millsap, and Carroll when they played in Utah. And I haven't changed my opinion one bit since. Not sure why the Hawks are such collectors of Jazz talent, but, I think it's gonna work for them. Biggest question in my mind is that SG position. Will it be Schroeder, Jenkins, Williams, Stevenson, Carroll, Cunningham, or someone not yet on the roster? I cant' tell for sure. So, this attempt at a depth chart is probably one of my weaker ones. I'm actually of the opinion that I'd run with Stevenson if he's healthy and have Carroll as my backup 3. But, I honestly have no idea. Hopefully Atl fans will have some consensus opinion on this matter and I can get it right on the 2nd draft.

Atlanta won 44 games last season and that looks like a good place to put them again this year. I think Millsap will erase the loss of Smith and Dennis Schroeder looks like one of the steals of the draft in my mind. I think he's going to turn some heads this year. I think the biggest problem for Atl is nothing new to them, a lack of size. At center you have 2 players that could comfortably be considered PFs. And at PF you have a guy who could pass for a beefy SF. I think shot blocking will be close to non-existant and rebounding will be a problem all season long, greatly hampering the team's ability to compete with the top squads in the league. I think they'll make hay against the weaker teams and will struggle against the better teams, and I mean this in a relative way, more than most teams.

Projected record: 44/38

[GrimeyKidd]

Pretty Good, I think Shot blocking maybe there just a little and i dont see us struggling to get rebounds this year if we start boxing out

[ATL Boy]

I also agree with this. We shouldn't have as big of a problem rebounding as you described though; Millsap is an excellent rebounder for his size, Horford averaged over 10 rebounds per game last year, and Brand and Ayon should provide a decent rebounding presence.

[theatlfan]

At SG, we're high on Jenkins and expect him to be the starter. His main competition will probably come from role players (who could mesh with the starting unit better but I'd still expect Jenkins to close out games in this scenario) and a yet-to-be-obtained SF with Korver moving over. The current rumor is that we're in on Ebanks, but I don't see him bucking Jenkins out of the starting role either. Also, no one expects that Stevenson will be under contract come camp, but we're getting the point where it's looking more and more likely. Even if he does come back, his knees don't let him play back-to-back anymore and his overall minutes should be limited.

I do see Brand as a "true C" at this point in his career, but the overall lack of size will definitely be an issue. With the loss of Josh Smith, we don't have near the athleticism that we were using to compensate. I also have some concerns over the minutes Brand can see (the decline in his minutes over the last 2 seasons is a little concerning), but I also don't see anyone on the roster that I'd feel comfortable with giving a shot as the #2 C if any of a top 2 are out for even 1 game. The competition for that role (Ayon, Antic - it doesn't look like we'll carry either of our draft picks in Nogueira and Muscala) just doesn't inspire any confidence in me.

Another issue is that, over the last 2 years, we've lost all our high usage players and we're left with only L Williams who is coming off an ACL injury to fill this role. I realize that there is a general consensus that low usage/high efficiency players are worth their weight in gold - and they are useful - but you still need someone to be the focus of the opponent's D to give room for the efficient players around the court. We need someone to step up and be "the man" here, outside of Lou (if healthy) and the possible exception of Horford, I don't see anyone who could fill the role this season (maybe Schöder down the line, but he's still just 19 right now and has some adjusting to the cultural gap he will be facing). I also wonder about having chemistry concerns with the possibility of multiple players wanting to be "the man" and guys we want to be the man.

I also have some depth concerns - maybe a better term would be "capacity concerns". If we're 100%, then we actually have pretty good depth, but when is a team ever 100%? Over the years, we've been able to sustain a good W% even when losing a Smith, JJ, and/or Horford for extended periods of time because someone else on the roster who we were only asking 80% from could step up and give more. That's not true this year - I can't see any one on the roster outside of a handful of young kids (Jenkins, Scröder, maybe Teague) who we won't be asking for everything they can give to keep us at .500... and even in those cases, we might already be asking for more than we should reasonably expect.

In all honesty, I have us pegged around .500 with the a higher likelihood of being a few games below than a few games above. We have a lot of Big if's to be a good team: IF Horford can step out of the shadow of JJ and Smith and prove to be an efficient scorer while raising his Usage to the 25+% level; IF Jenkins steps up into a more-than-competent starter in his 2nd year; IF Schröder steps up as a 19 yo and does more than we should expect; IF the veteran role players on the roster can step into bigger shoes especially when we're down a player or two. At least 2 of these have to happen to get to .500 and, outside of the last, I don't see any as more than a 50/50 proposition. If I was to predict, I'd go with 41-41 with a bad break or two away from being a 30-35 W team.

[tharoosta]

Sorry but no way Jenkins starts over Korver or Lou. And Korver is a SG.

[ATL Boy]

Sorry but no way Jenkins starts over Korver or Lou. And Korver is a SG.

Korver played SF all of last season and Lou is a 6th man off the bench

[GrimeyKidd]

Sorry but no way Jenkins starts over Korver or Lou. And Korver is a SG.

Coach Bud said he wants Lou to resume is 6th man role. Bring his acl along nicely

[PandaKidd]

Korver is funky, hes a SF, but they can slot him as a SG if they need to.

Lets be honest lots of SF/SG are interchangeable.

[epfou1]

Carroll will be the SF backup. I don't think the team is bring back DeShawn

[graymule]

I expect our 2nd round pick from last year, Scott to be on the
final roster. He's no all star but he ain't that bad either. He
did well in Summer League.

[gottamakeit]

Just curious, what do some people here project Jeff Teague's number to be, my guess:
MIN FG% FT% 3PM .. REB AST A/TO STL; BLK ;TO....PTS
35 ; .46 ; .80 ; 1.5 ; 2.0 ; 7.5 ; 2.72;1.6 /.25 ; 2.75 ; 16.25

[Jamaaliver]

Just curious, what do some people here project Jeff Teague's number to be, my guess:
MIN FG% FT% 3PM .. REB AST A/TO STL; BLK ;TO....PTS
35 ; .46 ; .80 ; 1.5 ; 2.0 ; 7.5 ; 2.72;1.6 /.25 ; 2.75 ; 16.25

I suspect his numbers will be similar to last year's. perhaps a slight bump in scoring.

17 ppg - 6.5 apg - 4 rpg

[gottamakeit]

Just curious, what do some people here project Jeff Teague's number to be, my guess:
MIN FG% FT% 3PM .. REB AST A/TO STL; BLK ;TO....PTS
35 ; .46 ; .80 ; 1.5 ; 2.0 ; 7.5 ; 2.72;1.6 /.25 ; 2.75 ; 16.25

I suspect his numbers will be similar to last year's. perhaps a slight bump in scoring.

17 ppg - 6.5 apg - 4 rpg

thanks for the reply
hmmm why do you have his assists going down? the departure of talent around him?

[theatlfan]

Just curious, what do some people here project Jeff Teague's number to be, my guess:
MIN FG% FT% 3PM .. REB AST A/TO STL; BLK ;TO....PTS
35 ; .46 ; .80 ; 1.5 ; 2.0 ; 7.5 ; 2.72;1.6 /.25 ; 2.75 ; 16.25

I'll be honest, if anyone can really reliable predict Teague's numbers next season, then we should be supporting him/her in their quest as a professional gambler.

Here's the deal: Teague can be elite and often. Teague was one of 6 guys who had 10 games last year with 20 points and 10 assists - the others: LeBron (13x), Tony Parker (12), CP3 (11), Deron Williams (11), and Stephen Curry (10). He can get hot and stay hot and he's in elite company in this regard.

Obviously, there is an issue with the other 70+ games though. Whereas those other guys will continue to have an effect on the game statistically, Teague can throw out some real stinkers. He had 19 games where he played at least 20 minutes but failed to reach double digits in either points or assists. For comparison sake, CP3 had 4 and 2 of those were in the midst of a stretch where he missed nearly a month of the season. The eye test matches the stats as well: at times, he is the talk of the board with his dribble penetration and ability to find the open man; at other times, he completely disappears from both the game and the talk on this board.

So, with Teague, if he could ever get to the point where his bad games are "OK", then his numbers could really jump in a way that will surprise many. I don't know if it'll ever happen or not, but if Budenholzer can get it out of him, then he could be a more than "just" a starting caliber PG - he could be a real weapon from the PG slot.

[gottamakeit]

Did his teammates last year marginalize Teague's ability to stay in the game? Josh Smith as a point forward took the ball outta his hands and created plays for his teammates including teague- so did teague take a backseat for that reason and his play suffered.

With Smith gone can we expect more consistency?

[Jamaaliver]

Just curious, what do some people here project Jeff Teague's number to be, my guess:
MIN FG% FT% 3PM .. REB AST A/TO STL; BLK ;TO....PTS
35 ; .46 ; .80 ; 1.5 ; 2.0 ; 7.5 ; 2.72;1.6 /.25 ; 2.75 ; 16.25

I suspect his numbers will be similar to last year's. perhaps a slight bump in scoring.

17 ppg - 6.5 apg - 4 rpg

thanks for the reply
hmmm why do you have his assists going down? the departure of talent around him?

It's not an indictment of him or his skills, but instead based on a few factors.

1. Teague, as it stands now, is the only experienced ballhandler on the team. I suspect defenses will trap him often to get the ball out of his hands, forcing other players to step up and make plays. Jenkins and Williams will have to step up and make plays with teams focusing largely on Horford and Teague.

2. With Josh gone, Teague likely moves up to #2 scoring option on most possessions and will likely take more FGAs; wherein the past these shots may have instead been kick outs to shooters or dump offs to a big in the paint, he'll probably have a green light to attack and finish more often than in the past. Either resulting in a floater/layup or a trip to the free throw line.

3. Dennis the Menace will cut into his PT at Point Guard. If they are both on the court, Teague is better equipped to play SG (size, shooting ability) with Schroeder getting on-the-job training as our playmaker of the future.

[theatlfan]

Did his teammates last year marginalize Teague's ability to stay in the game? Josh Smith as a point forward took the ball outta his hands and created plays for his teammates including teague- so did teague take a backseat for that reason and his play suffered.

With Smith gone can we expect more consistency?

Can't say. Since I'm not in the huddles, in the lockerroom, or in Teague's head, it's asking too much to separate what could be a coach's call versus what could be a player confidence or dominance issue.

The only aspect that I can look at is defense, since regardless of the whatever happens on the court on the offensive end, you can still see the effort and attitude of a player on the defensive end. Teague's D waxes and wanes. There are times when it's very good and possibly elite. Teague made his name in the playoff series against CHI two years ago when he went toe to toe against Derrick Rose and did pretty well so we know it's in him. OTOH, there are also extended periods when he doesn't seem to put nearly the effort.

You'd hope that going from being a backseat guy to driving the show would mean that Teague would put in a more consistent effort, but that doesn't always happen. For both my Hawks' and Teague's sake, I hope so though.

[Jamaaliver]

#15 - Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta won 44 games last season and that looks like a good place to put them again this year. I think Millsap will erase the loss of Smith and Dennis Schroeder looks like one of the steals of the draft in my mind. I think he's going to turn some heads this year. I think the biggest problem for Atl is nothing new to them, a lack of size... I think they'll make hay against the weaker teams and will struggle against the better teams, and I mean this in a relative way, more than most teams.

Projected record: 44/38

This analysis looks pretty spot on at this point of the season. Deshawn got cut, but everything else seems about right.

[jlfans]

#15 - Atlanta Hawks
PG - Jeff Teague, Dennis Schröder
SG - John Jenkins, Lou Williams
D - Jared Cunningham
Compare 5 Guards:
http://ns.twhappy.com/?select=14,compare,compare,pg,ppg,152_154_159_161_162

SF - Kyle Korver, DeShawn Stevenson
PF - Paul Millsap, Gustavo Ayon
C - Al Horford, Elton Brand
D - Demarre Carroll
Compare Bigs:
http://ns.twhappy.com/?select=14,compare,compare,pg,ppg,149_150_151_153_155_158

Or you can pick and compare from all Hawks:
http://ns.twhappy.com/?select=14,leader,pg,ppg,11,all,