People picking Cavs/Wizards to finish above Detroit

Han Solo · Post #1 » by **Han Solo** » Thu Aug 1, 2013 7:47 pm

I'm not a betting man. If I was, I would put almost everything on the fact that doesn't happen. I'll give my opinion later in this thread why. How do you feel about this? I understand the thinking behind Miami/IND/CHI/Brooklyn/NY. I see us sliding in behind these teams mentioned at worst (6th seed).

Let it fly.. How do you feel??

MrBigShot · Post #2 » by **MrBigShot** » Thu Aug 1, 2013 7:54 pm

Too many question marks. The Wizards are simply not as talented as we are imo. They have Wall/Beal, not much else. Porter is 2 years away from being able to hold his own as an SF strength wise, but I think he'll be a good glue guy. Other than that, they haven't made any big acquisitions.

The Cavs could be pretty good if Bynum can stay healthy. However, that's a HUUUGE if. He has not proven he can stay healthy over the course of an 82 game season playing starter mins.

As it stands I think we finish 4th at best, 8th at worst.

engelbert321 · Post #3 » by **engelbert321** » Thu Aug 1, 2013 7:56 pm

Include Atlanta in there as well. But honestly though, all four teams are unknown right now.
DET - We have the talent to make it, 6th seed is our ceiling this year. But will we have a solid chemistry? Our defense is no doubt going to be crazy, but will our offense be good enough?
CLE - Also have the talent, but will Irving, Bynum, and Varejao be able to stay healthy?
WAS - Same reason with CLE. Also, will Wall continue to play great after the 2nd half of last season?
ATL - They lost Smith, but picked up Millsap. Also added Brand. And retained Teague. How much did they really lose this off-season?
All in all, three of these teams will complete the top 8 in the East.

Dre Drummond · Post #4 » by **Dre Drummond** » Thu Aug 1, 2013 7:59 pm

Right now the odds in Vegas to win the eastern conference...

Miami Heat 5/7
Chicago Bulls 5/2
Brooklyn Nets 7/1
Indiana Pacers 7/1
New York Knicks 12/1
Atlanta Hawks 45/1
Boston Celtics 45/1
Milwaukee Bucks 45/1
Cleveland Cavaliers 45/1
Washington Wizards 45/1
Toronto Raptors 65/1
Detroit Pistons 130/1
Philadelphia 76ers 225/1
Orlando Magic 225/1
Charlotte Bobcats 225/1

So if you're a betting man I would guess they will soon be doing over/unders for team wins and I would guess Detroit is going to be at about 32-34 wins... which means I'm going to be heavily that Detroit will win over that.

engelbert321 · Post #5 » by **engelbert321** » Thu Aug 1, 2013 8:03 pm

Dre Drummond wrote:Right now the odds in Vegas to win the eastern conference...

Miami Heat 5/7
Chicago Bulls 5/2
Brooklyn Nets 7/1
Indiana Pacers 7/1
New York Knicks 12/1
Atlanta Hawks 45/1
Boston Celtics 45/1
Milwaukee Bucks 45/1
Cleveland Cavaliers 45/1
Washington Wizards 45/1
Toronto Raptors 65/1
Detroit Pistons 130/1
Philadelphia 76ers 225/1
Orlando Magic 225/1
Charlotte Bobcats 225/1

So if you're a betting man I would guess they will soon be doing over/unders for team wins and I would guess Detroit is going to be at about 32-34 wins... which means I'm going to be heavily that Detroit will win over that.

Jesus, that's insane.

Brapman · Post #6 » by **Brapman** » Thu Aug 1, 2013 8:13 pm

It's hard to believe that Boston or Milwaukee would be rated higher than the Pistons.

Atlanta is vulnerable I think, because losing Smith really hurts them defensively - as does losing Zaza.

Cleveland, Washington, and Toronto aren't better than we are, I wouldn't think - certainly not 2 to 3 times better like those odds say. You could say that all 4 of these teams (including us) are pretty much in the same tier. IMO our upside is higher than any of these teams, but we're probably the hardest team to figure out chemistry-wise, because we've had such an extreme roster turnover - and because our very most important young player is very young. Let's face it: Drummond is probably the next dominant elite franchise center. His upside is way higher than Val's is - and I like Val a lot. He's also 19 years old. It's very hard to predict how soon he'll pull us over the top of this tier and into very good and then elite team status.

retrolenny · Post #7 » by **retrolenny** » Thu Aug 1, 2013 8:19 pm

MrBigShot wrote:Too many question marks. The Wizards are simply not as talented as we are imo. They have Wall/Beal, not much else. Porter is 2 years away from being able to hold his own as an SF strength wise, but I think he'll be a good glue guy. Other than that, they haven't made any big acquisitions.

The Cavs could be pretty good if Bynum can stay healthy. However, that's a HUUUGE if. He has not proven he can stay healthy over the course of an 82 game season playing starter mins.

As it stands I think we finish 4th at best, 8th at worst.

Dre is already better than Bynum but a healthy Varajiao, Irving, Thompson, Waiters, Zeller, and Bynum collectively is indeed a good team

engelbert321 · Post #8 » by **engelbert321** » Thu Aug 1, 2013 8:28 pm

retrolenny wrote:
MrBigShot wrote:Too many question marks. The Wizards are simply not as talented as we are imo. They have Wall/Beal, not much else. Porter is 2 years away from being able to hold his own as an SF strength wise, but I think he'll be a good glue guy. Other than that, they haven't made any big acquisitions.

The Cavs could be pretty good if Bynum can stay healthy. However, that's a HUUUGE if. He has not proven he can stay healthy over the course of an 82 game season playing starter mins.

As it stands I think we finish 4th at best, 8th at worst.

Dre is already better than Bynum but a healthy Varajiao, Irving, Thompson, Waiters, Zeller, and Bynum collectively is indeed a good team

C'mon now. I love Dre, but Bynum is a proven beast when healthy. Dre's not up there yet.

DocRI · Post #9 » by **DocRI** » Thu Aug 1, 2013 8:34 pm

Kinda off topic, but am I the only person who feels the Knicks might be a lot closer to the us / Cavs / Wizards / Hawks group than the Heat / Pacers / Bulls / Nets group? I mean, Amare's pretty much an injury train wreck, J.R. Smith will miss the first couple of months, and their big acquisition this offseason was Bargnani; I wouldn't be too surprised to see them implode, and I definitely don't think they'll realistically hang with the top four teams in the East.

As such, I think our ceiling this season is 5th (if absolutely everything breaks right) and our floor is 9th or 10th (if absolutely everything breaks wrong, which would cost Dumars his job). Realistically, I'm expecting a 6th or 7th seed, and what I most want to see is for us to be a "tough out" in the first round against one of the elite teams. That's how young teams learn — by competing hard and losing tough in their first post season against a superior, seasoned, veteran contender (like the Thunder in 2010, who were the #8 seed and yet took the eventual-champion Lakers to six games in the first round). And I really believe we've got the best chance of any back-half Eastern Conference playoff team of doing that, which to me would make this season a resounding success and set us up to take the next step into actual contention in 2014/15.

bballnmike · Post #10 » by **bballnmike** » Thu Aug 1, 2013 8:39 pm

How dare they!?

It's whatever. Lot's of unknowns with teams 5/6 through 9

zeebneeb · Post #11 » by **zeebneeb** » Thu Aug 1, 2013 8:54 pm

Look at our team. Its loaded with talent. Its also loaded with YOUNG players, and knuckleheads. It is a volatile mix to say the least.

We don't have some superstar ego to deal with, but a bunch of little "I'm going to be an all-star" egos, wich in a way, is even worse.

They could win anything this first year together, from 32, to 52 games. Who the hell knows. I cannot bash a single person with a legit complaint about our team, because ALL OF THEM COULD BE RIGHT.

I JUST CANT MAKE A CALL.

Post #12 » by **ajaX82** » Thu Aug 1, 2013 9:27 pm

Zeeb is right, our team is totally up in the air. But how Toronto could have those odds compared to us is insanity. Or Milwaukee. There is no way those have been updated.

Post #13 » by **theBigLip** » Thu Aug 1, 2013 9:35 pm

For those of you that are not heavy bettors, Vegas will set odds not on reality, but to balance the betting so no matter who wins, they will win. So if there are more bettors in New York than Detroit, and everyone is a homer, than an oddsmaker is going to give New York better odds to win, making it a less desirable wager, which will help balance the money between their odds and Detroits. It doesn't necessarily mean New York is better than us.

Post #14 » by **theBigLip** » Thu Aug 1, 2013 9:39 pm

As for who I think is going to finish where in the East, I think 1-4 is easily Miami, Indiana, Chicago and Brooklyn.

Agree with whoever mentioned that New York could be closer to us than in that first tier.

5-9 is a crapshoot. New York, Detroit, Washington, Cleveland, Atlanta are all teams that could land anywhere in there.

And Milwaukee and Toronto seem to be a step down, but one of them could possible sneak into the playoffs.

Brapman · Post #15 » by **Brapman** » Thu Aug 1, 2013 9:51 pm

Toronto has Val and gay. They could be pretty good

Kilo · Post #16 » by **Kilo** » Thu Aug 1, 2013 10:38 pm

Toronto also has Casey returning - meaning the Raps can hit the ground running while we have to work out new players into a completely new system and lest we forget we hired Mo Cheeks, who is basically crud.

Post #17 » by **Snakebites** » Thu Aug 1, 2013 11:02 pm

Cavs and Wizards ahead of us?

Why not?

Bknight4three · Post #18 » by **Bknight4three** » Fri Aug 2, 2013 1:22 am

Thebiglip already touched on this but he is exactly right. This doesn't necessarily mean that Vegas thinks the Bucks are better than the Pistons. It just reflects the publics perception/money. The reality is that every team outside of Indiana/Chicago/Miami/NY/Brooklyn is a serious longshot to win the East. Plus, what were the odds before we added Jennings? What about before Smith? Nobody is stupid enough to put any SG significant money on the Pistons to make it to the NBA finals so if they started with the 10th best odds when Vegas set the lines it's unrealistic to think that they would move the line significantly just because we swapped Jennings for Knight. Our odds of winnig the East changed from about .00000005% to .0000001%. Yay! statistically our chances doubled but it doesn't have a huge effect. If our over/under was set lower than those teams it would be another story.

Dre Drummond · Post #19 » by **Dre Drummond** » Fri Aug 2, 2013 2:56 am

It actually looks like they don't post the over/unders for games won until October right around when the preseason starts so we're going to have to wait about 2.5 months before we see how Vegas stacks up the Pistons vs the rest of the East.

And if they are wrong early you can be certain they will adjust that win total upwards to hedge their bets... so if you are going to bet on Detroit you should get it in early.

beau · Post #20 » by **beau** » Sat Aug 3, 2013 9:52 pm

theBigLip wrote:For those of you that are not heavy bettors, Vegas will set odds not on reality, but to balance the betting so no matter who wins, they will win. So if there are more bettors in New York than Detroit, and everyone is a homer, than an oddsmaker is going to give New York better odds to win, making it a less desirable wager, which will help balance the money between their odds and Detroits. It doesn't necessarily mean New York is better than us.

Thats a little confusing for me. So even though NY has a less than desirable odds, the new york homers still go for it?

Even though I consider myself a homer, my decisions are based on logic. Making a bet like that for NY isnt logical.